Shams-Tristan Vukcevic 3 years 9 million

Benjammin · Post #61 » by **Benjammin** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 2:55 pm

People act like $3 million for Vuk is keeping the Wizards from making moves. They have a 13.4 million TPE that expires July 9th. They have the full MLE if they choose to use it. They act like Vuk taking up a roster spot for $3 million is such an issue. He hits 3s. That has value as a guy at the end of the bench. All the more so when you're 7-0 although it would be nice if he would play a little defense now and again.

What follows is AI/Gemini slop, but since we can't be objective when it comes to a guy who literally should be a "break glass in case of emergency" player (by the way I'm the one on the board who coined that phrase for Juan Dixon, one of my rare enduring contributions) I will offer some stats to put into context why a one year 3 million dollar contract for a floor spacing big is not an issue.

Gemini AI Slop

"2025–26 Advanced Analytics ProfileMetricValuePercentile /
Scouting ContextTrue Shooting % (TS%)60.3%70th percentile — Highly efficient scoring asset.
3-Point Attempt Rate (3PAr)45.4%53rd percentile — High perimeter volume for a 7-footer.
Crafted OPM (Offensive Plus-Minus)-0.559th percentile — Competent, space-opening reserve.
Box Plus-Minus (BPM)+0.0Near-exact replacement-level net output.
Offensive Rebound RateLow16th percentile — Drastically limited by perimeter positioning.
Defensive Rebound RateModerate73rd percentile league-wide (closer to average among centers).

Tristan Vukčević’s tracking data reveals a fascinating paradox: he is a highly effective shot-blocker and vertical contester when he is in position, but his physical presence offers almost zero horizontal deterrence to opposing drivers.

According to tracking data from modern analytics databases like CraftedNBA, here is how his paint defense breaks down by the numbers:

1. Rim Deterrence (Rim Frequency)Metric: 48.2% Opponent Rim FrequencyPercentile: 95th percentile (where higher means more opponent attempts)What it shows: This is his primary defensive red flag. Being in the 95th percentile for opponent rim frequency means that when Vukčević is on the floor, opposing offenses relentlessly attack the paint. He currently lacks the spatial awareness, strength, or reputation to alter an opponent's shot map; guards see him as a green light to drive.
2. Shot Contesting Success (Rim Defense)Metric: -2.7% / -2.8% Opponent FG% Differential at the RimPercentile: 60th percentileWhat it shows: Surprisingly, when he actually meets a driver at the apex, he holds his own. Opponents shoot nearly 3% worse than their season average when Vukčević actively contests their shot at the rim. This places him comfortably above the league average, proving that his sheer 7-foot length is functional when he is anchored.
3. Vertical rim protection (Block Percentage)Metric: 3.5% Block RatePercentile: 85th percentileWhat it shows: Vukčević has genuinely good instincts as a weak-side rotators and vertical rim protector. Clearing the 80th percentile in block rate highlights that he isn't just a passive body; he can actively alter and erase plays at the summit.The Defensive SynthesisWhen you zoom out to his overall impact, metrics like CraftedDPM (Defensive Plus-Minus) peg him at -0.5 (33rd percentile).

The tracking metrics show exactly why there is a disconnect between his high block rate and his poor overall defensive impact. He possesses the vertical tools to protect the rim (60th percentile contest, 85th percentile blocks), but completely lacks the lateral mobility, pick-and-roll versatility, and structural positioning to prevent teams from getting to the rim in the first place (95th percentile rim frequency).Essentially, he can win the individual battle at the cup, but he is losing the war of keeping teams out of the paint entirely."

closg00 · Post #62 » by **closg00** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 3:07 pm

payitforward wrote:"Failure?" -- because he didn't prepare for Sarr's injury?
"...burning an asset?" -- how? I don't see it.
"Desperation...?" -- let's not exaggerate, please. Injuries are part of the game.

Yes failure, re-read this thread.
What is our Front Court depth currently? Every team knows that we are desperate for depth, thus weakening any leverage we may have in negotiations. Dawkins now must make some moves…

Benjammin · Post #63 » by **Benjammin** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 3:32 pm

closg00 wrote:
payitforward wrote:"Failure?" -- because he didn't prepare for Sarr's injury?
"...burning an asset?" -- how? I don't see it.
"Desperation...?" -- let's not exaggerate, please. Injuries are part of the game.

Yes failure, re-read this thread.
What is our Front Court depth currently? Every team knows that we are desperate for depth, thus weakening any leverage we may have in negotiations. Dawkins now must make some moves…

It wasn't a failure to this point; rather it was the primary tanking strategy. Now if they're still very thin at the 4 and 5 when the regular season begins that would be a failure.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Post #64 » by **nate33** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 3:52 pm

closg00 wrote:
payitforward wrote:"Failure?" -- because he didn't prepare for Sarr's injury?
"...burning an asset?" -- how? I don't see it.
"Desperation...?" -- let's not exaggerate, please. Injuries are part of the game.

Yes failure, re-read this thread.
What is our Front Court depth currently? Every team knows that we are desperate for depth, thus weakening any leverage we may have in negotiations. Dawkins now must make some moves…

The idea that when teams are "desperate" prices go up is nonsense.

Let's say OKC is looking to move Jalen Williams to make some cap room.

If we called up the Thunder and asked to trade for Jalen Williams to bolster our PF position, OKC isn't going to look at our roster and say: "For you, that will be 3 first round picks". Their price wouldn't be dictated by our "desperation", it would be dictated by the best offer. If Chicago is only offering 1 first round pick, and we offer 1 first round pick plus a second round pick, we would get him.

closg00 · Post #65 » by **closg00** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 4:24 pm

nate33 wrote:
closg00 wrote:
payitforward wrote:"Failure?" -- because he didn't prepare for Sarr's injury?
"...burning an asset?" -- how? I don't see it.
"Desperation...?" -- let's not exaggerate, please. Injuries are part of the game.

Yes failure, re-read this thread.
What is our Front Court depth currently? Every team knows that we are desperate for depth, thus weakening any leverage we may have in negotiations. Dawkins now must make some moves…

The idea that when teams are "desperate" prices go up is nonsense.

Let's say OKC is looking to move Jalen Williams to make some cap room.

If we called up the Thunder and asked to trade for Jalen Williams to bolster our PF position, OKC isn't going to look at our roster and say: "For you, that will be 3 first round picks". Their price wouldn't be dictated by our "desperation", it would be dictated by the best offer. If Chicago is only offering 1 first round pick, and we offer 1 first round pick plus a second round pick, we would get him.

This isn’t front office reality. Two NBA teams are rarely in positions of equal power when it comes to trades, look no further than our trade with Atlanta for Trae Young. Atlanta was desperate (as we are now) to unload Trae, they wanted draft capital in return for Trae but were unable able to get it because they were in the weaker negotiating position, so trading Trae for zero draft capital was “the best offer” they could get; Dawkins is now in the weakest position because he must now land front court depth during a weak free agency, and the entire NBA knows it.

BTW, this was discussed the summer of 2025 as-well.
https://www.si.com/nba/wizards/onsi/washington-wizards-news/when-should-washington-wizards-prioritize-frontcourt-depth-nba-draft

Post #66 » by **nate33** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 5:16 pm

closg00 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
closg00 wrote:
Yes failure, re-read this thread.
What is our Front Court depth currently? Every team knows that we are desperate for depth, thus weakening any leverage we may have in negotiations. Dawkins now must make some moves…

The idea that when teams are "desperate" prices go up is nonsense.

Let's say OKC is looking to move Jalen Williams to make some cap room.

If we called up the Thunder and asked to trade for Jalen Williams to bolster our PF position, OKC isn't going to look at our roster and say: "For you, that will be 3 first round picks". Their price wouldn't be dictated by our "desperation", it would be dictated by the best offer. If Chicago is only offering 1 first round pick, and we offer 1 first round pick plus a second round pick, we would get him.

This isn’t front office reality. Two NBA teams are rarely in positions of equal power when it comes to trades, look no further than our trade with Atlanta for Trae Young. Atlanta was desperate (as we are now) to unload Trae, they wanted draft capital in return for Trae but were unable able to get it because they were in the weaker negotiating position, so trading Trae for zero draft capital was “the best offer” they could get; Dawkins is now in the weakest position because he must now land front court depth during a weak free agency, and the entire NBA knows it.

BTW, this was discussed the summer of 2025 as-well.
https://www.si.com/nba/wizards/onsi/washington-wizards-news/when-should-washington-wizards-prioritize-frontcourt-depth-nba-draft

I think we are talking about two different things.

Market prices are set by supply and demand. Obviously, in the Trae market last February, there was virtually no demand and a glut of supply with Trae, Ja and even Lonzo reportedly on the market. That drove down Trae's price from a general perspective. What made that situation a bit more unique was that, ultimately, there were just two parties: us and Atlanta. Literally nobody else wanted Trae on his current contract. In that situation, where the negotiation is exclusively head-to-head, I suppose one party being "desperate" puts them at a disadvantage.

I don't see this big man crisis as analogous. Even though we are in need of one more competent big man, that doesn't mean we are going to end up in a head-to-head negotiation with one team. There are plenty of teams in need of a big man and plenty of teams with a surplus. With a market that big, nobody has the ability to just extort an unreasonable price from us. If they tried, we would just move on to the next seller. Ultimately, the cost of a big man will be set by the supply and demand of the entire market, not by the level of desperation between just two parties.

Zonkerbl · Post #67 » by **Zonkerbl** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 6:04 pm

well, supply and demand requires a lot of suppliers and a lot of sellers. When you have just a handful of actors the "market" devolves into a "grab the dollar" game - there's a hundred pennies on the table and each player gets one chances to grab a certain number of pennies. If you do the game theory there's a 100 possible outcomes to that game, not one uniquely determined price. That's when leverage and etc. come into play.

Nate's still mostly right because each GM is expected to make a large number of transactions and if they establish reputations as fair dealers people tend to offer them fair deals. It's a fragile equilibrium though.

payitforward · Post #68 » by **payitforward** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 6:31 pm

My perspective is somewhat different -- Vukcevic is no good, & I want top dollar for him!

Post #69 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Jun 16, 2026 7:45 pm

keynote wrote:I like it. Given all the offensive skill we now have in our front court, let's now focus on getting the best goon we can afford to be the first big off the bench. A modern Reggie Evans type. A stretcher 5.

You mean a JuJu Reese type?

closg00 · Post #70 » by **closg00** » Mon Jun 22, 2026 3:11 pm

Tristán should be able to make the cut.

Read on Twitter

closg00 · Post #71 » by **closg00** » Thu Jul 2, 2026 11:48 am

Wrong thread

closg00 · Post #72 » by **closg00** » Sun Jul 26, 2026 1:23 pm

Read on Twitter

Benjammin · Post #73 » by **Benjammin** » Sun Jul 26, 2026 1:30 pm

That is a break glass in case of emergency skill and he's seven feet tall. For a fourth big/center at 3 million per and 27-28 not guaranteed, it's totally fine despite all the weeping and gnashing of teeth by some.

closg00 · Post #74 » by **closg00** » Yesterday 11:50 am

Read on Twitter

https://www.bulletsforever.com/washington-wizards-statistical-analysis/72744/wizards-vukcevic-doppelgangers-statistical-analysis?utm_campaign=dhtwitter&utm_content=%3Cmedia_url%3E&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Post #75 » by **nate33** » Yesterday 2:19 pm

Thanks for trying to keep the board alive with content closg00. It may not be much, but it's something!

I had almost forgotten about Vukcevic. There clearly isn't any room for him in the rotation at the moment. For him, it's all about how much more can he develop behind the scenes. They must think he has a lot more untapped upside.

payitforward · Post #76 » by **payitforward** » Yesterday 6:35 pm

I do not understand why we bother to keep Vuk on the roster. I just can't get there. Not in the "break glass in case of emergency" sense not in the "who knows maybe he'll develop" sense.

Zonkerbl · Post #77 » by **Zonkerbl** » Yesterday 6:51 pm

Well, he's a tall guy who can shoot.

DukeLecker · Post #78 » by **DukeLecker** » Yesterday 6:57 pm

Vukcevic is to defense what Felix Okpara is to offense. Sadly, neither of them is really good at anything basketball wise and I bet if you combined the strengths of both players, they still wouldn't be rotation worthy.

payitforward · Post #79 » by **payitforward** » Yesterday 11:14 pm

I think you just may wind up taking back that judgment of Felix. I liked a lot of what i saw in SL.

Don't get me wrong -- I can't defend that intuitive sense with any data!

Just a feeling about the kid.

Post #80 » by **nate33** » Today 12:39 pm

payitforward wrote:I think you just may wind up taking back that judgment of Felix. I liked a lot of what i saw in SL.

Don't get me wrong -- I can't defend that intuitive sense with any data! Just a feeling about the kid.

It's worth noting that, even though this will be Vukcevic's 4th season, he is only 1 year older than Felix.