2026 NBA DRAFT CLASS

[Marvin Martian]

Acuff profiles as a bad defender, but truthfully that isn't anything new. Most of the guards in this class will be bad defenders so I don't really knock him as hard for it as everyone else seems to.

Again, here are the best guard prospects recently.

Murray- 7% def epm
Harden- 16% def epm
Young - 7% def epm
Keyonte - 1% def epm
Garland- 31% def epm
Sheppard- 61% def epm
Morant- 43% def epm
Scoot - 1% as a rookie, 5% as a soph def epm
Dillingham- 2% def epm
Ivey- 15% def epm

People pretending Mikel, Wagler, Philon, Flemings etc are going to be significantly better defenders than Acuff are probably just wrong.

Depends on how they develop and use their physical tools. If they end up becoming premier offensive weapons than yes you have a point but sometimes they change when they aren't asked to be a number one option like Jalen Suggs

[Caneman786]

Because the vast majority of guards drafted highly are bad defenders, chances are maybe 1 out of the 6 will be league average, the rest will all be really poor defenders especially for the first couple of years of their careers.

What is this idea based on, though? I believe you've asserted this multiple times, but it isn't true. The list of players you bring above to support your claim isn't comprehensive at all (and for whatever reason you included Harden who was a guard prospect nearly two decades ago).

For a better outlook, I took a look at all guard prospects (those defined as only guards on NBA.com, which excludes people like Amen Thompson and Benedict Mathurin who are "Guard-Forwards") taken in the lottery from 2019 to 2023 (so five years of those guards which we have at least three years of data available for), and viewed their xRAPM defensive outcomes in the third year after they were drafted (so for example, Scoot Henderson using the 2026 rating).

5 - 75th percentile or higher outcomes
13 - 25th percentile to 75th percentile (middle 50%)
6 - 25th percentile or lower outcomes

5 - Did not play 2,000 minutes (33 games a year for three years * 20 minutes per game) in the league in their first three NBA seasons (Jett Howard; Johnny Davis; James Bouknight; Joshua Primo; Kira Lewis, Jr.)

The data is not perfect, and maybe it overestimates some players and underestimates others. However, on a broad level, the distribution should be correct, and it shows a very normal distribution. Some high end outcomes, some low end outcomes, and most players falling in the middle, not at all like what you mentioned, where almost everyone is at the bottom. And this makes sense, too, since while guards may be the weakest position defensively, and early in their (and any player's career), they could be on the bottom, lottery picks in general have more talent and are able to succeed more in the NBA, pushing them a little higher.

If you look at the top ten guards in this class, they should follow this trend, too. At least, this is my perception of these players, which could be wrong, but there are still tiers, here, and anyone should feel free to have their own tiers. What isn't true, though, is that it's likely that the vast majority will be bottom-end outcomes, which would be something of an outlier, historically, with guard classes.

My surface-level perception of the prospects defensively:

High end outcome: Flemings, Peterson
Middle outcome: Wagler; Brown, Jr.; Burries; Stirtz; Anderson, Jr.; Okorie
Low end outcome: Acuff, Jr.; Philon, Jr.

It's tough for me to go back and forth on some of these (especially spending time wondering whether I should replace Flemings with Burries in the high-end outcome category, or Philon, Jr. with one of Wagler; Anderson, Jr.; or Brown, Jr. in the low-end outcome category), but the exact rankings shouldn't be important, rather the idea that guards aren't necessarily poor defenders coming in.

It's more important that we should view each prospect as an individual and evaluate them based on that rather than lumping them all in together as guards and giving them the same defensive outlook (or even similar outlooks) just due to their position as that.

[wco81]

Which of these small guards are going to have such great offensive impact that teams will build around them, drafting or acquiring great 2-way wings, like the Knicks did for Brunson?

[Caneman786]

LINK TO DIRECTORY OF ALL PLAYERS

rookiescale.com has updated its big board after the withdrawal deadline for early entry international prospects which occurred on June 13.

#35 ranked Luigi Suigo will be attending Villanova for his freshman season.

Consensus mock draft as of June 16, 2026 with all threads on NBA Draft board as of June 16, 2026 linked:

First Round

1. AJ Dybantsa - Thread created 7/16/24 - Ranked #1 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - Brigham Young University - From Brockton, MA
2. Darryn Peterson - Thread created 11/19/24 - Ranked #2 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Kansas - From Canton, OH
3. ‎Cameron Boozer - Thread created 7/22/24 - Ranked #3 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - Duke University - From Miami, FL
‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ Cameron Boozer original Thread (locked) Thread created 8/23/23
4. Caleb Wilson - Thread created 11/3/25 - Ranked #5 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of North Carolina - From Atlanta, GA
5. Keaton Wagler - Thread created 1/25/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Illinois - From Shawnee, KS
6. Darius Acuff Jr. - Thread created 12/17/25 - Ranked #10 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Arkansas - From Detroit, MI
7. Mikel Brown Jr. - Thread created 11/8/25 - Ranked #7 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Louisville - From Orlando, FL
8. Kingston Flemings - Thread created 12/11/25 - Ranked #15 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Houston - From San Antonio, TX
9. Brayden Burries - Thread created 1/12/26 - Ranked #9 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Arizona - From San Bernardino, CA
10. Nate Ament - Thread created 11/2/25 - Ranked #4 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Tennessee - From Manassas, VA
11. Aday Mara - Thread created 6/27/21 - Junior - University of Michigan - From Zaragoza, Spain
12. Yaxel Lendeborg - Thread created 2/21/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2020 - Senior - University of Michigan - From Pennsauken, NJ
‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ Yaxel Lendeborg second thread - Thread created 5/3/26
13. Morez Johnson Jr. - Thread not yet created - Ranked #26 in the class of 2024 - Sophomore - University of Michigan - From Riverdale, IL
14. Hannes Steinbach - Thread created 12/30/25 - Freshman - University of Washington - From Würzburg, Germany
15. Karim Lopez - Thread created 10/5/24 - Australian Pro League (NBL) - New Zealand Breakers - From Hermosillo, Mexico
16. Labaron Philon Jr. - Thread created 3/27/26 - Ranked #32 in the class of 2024 - Sophomore - University of Alabama - From Mobile, AL
17. Cameron Carr - Thread created 12/20/25 - Ranked #55 in the class of 2023 - Junior - Baylor University - From Eden Prairie, MN
18. Bennett Stirtz - Thread created 3/28/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Iowa - From Liberty, MO
19. Christian Anderson Jr. - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2024 - Sophomore - Texas Tech - From Atlanta, GA
20. Jayden Quaintance - Thread not yet created - Ranked #8 in the class of 2024 - Sophomore - University of Kentucky - From Cleveland, OH
21. Chris Cenac Jr. - Thread created 3/27/26 - Ranked #6 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Houston - From New Orleans, LA
22. Dailyn Swain - Thread created 3/26/26 - Ranked #94 in the class of 2023 - Junior - University of Texas - From Columbus, OH
23. Allen Graves - Thread created 3/17/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2024 - Freshman - Santa Clara University - From Ponchatoula, LA
24. Ebuka Okorie - Thread created 1/26/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - Stanford University - From Nashua, NH
25. Koa Peat - Thread created 11/3/25 - Ranked #8 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Arizona - From Gilbert, AZ
26. Isaiah Evans - Thread not yet created - Ranked #16 in the class of 2024 - Sophomore - Duke University - From Fayetteville, NC
27. Meleek Thomas - Thread created 11/5/25 - Ranked #12 in the class of 2025 - Freshman - University of Arkansas - From Atlanta, GA
28. Henri Veesaar - Thread not yet created - Senior - University of North Carolina - From Tallinn, Estonia
29. Tarris Reed Jr. - Thread not yet created - Ranked #31 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Connecticut - From St. Louis, MO
30. Zuby Ejiofor - Thread not yet created - Ranked #50 in the class of 2022 - Senior - St. John's University - From Garland, TX

Second Round

31. Alex Karaban - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2021 - Senior - University of Connecticut - From Southborough, MA
32. Sergio de Larrea - Thread created 2/14/25 - Spanish Liga ACB - Valencia - From Valladolid, Spain
33. Joshua Jefferson - Thread created 1/17/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of North Carolina - From Las Vegas, NV
34. Baba Miller - Thread created 8/28/21 - Senior - University of Cincinnati - From Mallorca, Spain
35. Richie Saunders - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Brigham Young University - From Riverton, UT
36. Ryan Conwell - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Louisville - From Indianapolis, IN
37. Jack Kayil - Thread not yet created - Alba Berlin - Basketball Bundesliga - From Berlin, Germany
38. Braden Smith - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Purdue University - From Westfield, IN
39. Dillon Mitchell - Thread not yet created - Ranked #5 in the class of 2022 - Senior - St. John's University - From Tampa, FL
40. Jaden Bradley - Thread not yet created - Ranked #24 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Arizona - From Rochester, NY
41. Emanuel Sharp - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2021 - Senior - University of Houston - From Tampa, FL
42. Trevon Brazile - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2021 - Senior - University of Arkansas - From Springfield, MO
43. Ja'Kobi Gillespie - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Tennessee - From Greeneville, TN
44. Ugonna Onyenso - Thread not yet created - Senior - University of Virginia - From Oweri, Nigeria
45. Bruce Thornton - Thread not yet created - Ranked #47 in the class of 2022 - Senior - The Ohio State University - From Alpharetta, GA
46. Izaiyah Nelson - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of South Florida - From Marietta, GA
47. Tobi Lawal - Thread not yet created - Senior - Virginia Tech - From London, United Kingdom
48. Felix Okpara - Thread not yet created - Ranked #65 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Tennessee - From Lagos, Nigeria
49. Otega Oweh - Thread created 12/4/23 - Ranked #72 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Kentucky - From Somerset, NJ
50. Tyler Nickel - Thread not yet created - Ranked #93 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Vanderbilt University - From Harrisonburg, VA
51. Nick Martinelli - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Northwestern University - From Glenbrook, IL
52. Tyler Bilodeau - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of California, Los Angeles - From Kennewich, WA
53. Bryce Hopkins - Thread not yet created - Ranked #33 in the class of 2021 - Senior - St. John's University - From Oak Park, IL
54. Milos Uzan - Thread not yet created - Ranked #70 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Houston - From Las Vegas, NV
55. Kylan Boswell - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Illinois - From Champaign, IL
56. Maliq Brown - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Duke University - From Culpeper, VA
57. Nate Bittle - Thread not yet created - Ranked #20 in the class of 2021 - Senior - University of Oregon - From Central Point, OR
58. Aaron Nkrumah - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2019 - Senior - Tennessee State University - From Worcester, MA
59. Keyshawn Hall - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - Auburn University - From Cleveland, OH
60. Rafael Castro - Thread not yet created - Not top 100 in the class of 2021 - Senior - George Washington University - From Dover, NJ

Fringe prospect, outside of top 100

Tae Davis - Thread created 4/4/26 - Not top 100 in the class of 2022 - Senior - University of Oklahoma - From Indianapolis, IN

The source for the consensus mock draft is the rookiescale.com 2026 NBA Draft Consensus Big Board, which is based on many different currently available draft boards and rankings. https://www.rookiescale.com/2026-consensus-board/

Class rankings are from the RSCI Hoops Index.

Other threads:

General discussion thread for 2026 NBA draft - Thread began 2/4/25

"Is there a generational talent in the 2026 NBA draft?" - Thread began 12/5/25
Upperclassman watch, 2026 NBA draft - Thread began 12/14/25
Seeing prospects play in person - Thread began 1/1/26
Point Guards in the 2026 NBA draft - Thread began 1/5/26
Will one of the Big 3 underwhelm? - Thread began 1/14/26
Poll: Peterson, Dybantsa, Boozer for #1 pick? - Thread began 1/25/26
Comparing AJ Dybantsa with Tatum, Barrett as prospects - Thread began 2/5/26
Guards comparison: Acuff, Flemings, Brown, Philon - Thread began 3/8/26
Possible Power Forwards? Peat, Lendeborg, Johnson Jr. - Thread began 3/8/26
Bigs discussion: Steinbach, Quaintance, Ngongba II, etc. - Thread began 3/8/26
Picks 4 to 10 relative strength in other drafts - Thread began 3/14/26
Best fits for teams and draft prospects - Thread began 3/15/26
D1 College Basketball RAPM estimates, 2025–26 season - Thread began 3/19/26
Total points leader in D1 College Basketball: Dybantsa vs. Boozer vs. Acuff Jr. - Thread began 3/19/26
Create your future NBA team - Thread began on 4/6/26
Who gets drafted higher? Jayden Quaintance or Yaxel Lendeborg - Thread began 4/9/26
Which top 5 pick is most likely to bust? - Thread began 4/23/26
Guard ranking (lottery guards) - Thread began 5/10/26
John Hollinger's draft board - Thread began 5/12/26
Should the Wizards trade the #1 pick for the #2 pick and Ace Bailey? - Thread began 5/14/26
euchus1981's draft comps - Thread began 5/23/26
NBADraftIntel.com - Thread began 5/15/26
Second Round Upperclassman Perimeter Players - Thread began 6/2/26
AI Feature, Ask Kevin O'Connor - Thread began 6/4/26
Prospect likes and dislikes? - Thread began 6/10/26

[Caneman786]

Here's a collection of where the major pundits stand when it comes to the lottery picks this draft (mock drafts made in the last two days, so this excludes Vecenie's most recent mock that was published on June 8):

Kevin O'Connor, Yahoo Sports — Mock draft (June 16): https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/nba-mock-draft-90-updated-projections-with-a-week-to-go-162407099.html

Jeremy Woo, ESPN — Mock draft (June 15): https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/49041464/2026-nba-mock-draft-projecting-60-picks-draft-night-trade-talks-boozer-peterson-dybantsa-acuff

Jonathan Wasserman, Bleacher Report — Mock draft (June 16): https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25262746-2026-nba-mock-draft

They are in this order, and separated by commas.

1. Dybantsa, Dybantsa, Dybantsa
2. Boozer, Peterson, Peterson
3. Peterson, Boozer, Boozer
4. Wilson, Wilson, Wilson
5. Acuff, Jr.; Wagler; Wagler
6. Brown, Jr.; Acuff, Jr.; Acuff, Jr.
7. Wagler; Brown, Jr.; Flemings
8. Burries; Flemings; Brown, Jr.
9. Lopez, Burries, Burries
10. Flemings, Ament, Ament
11. Mara, Mara, Lopez
12. Lendeborg, Lendeborg, Mara
13. Steinbach; Johnson, Jr.; Carr
14. Johnson, Jr.; Lopez; Lendeborg

The top four players seem locked in that range.
The top ten has five more players locked in (nine total): Wagler; Acuff, Jr.; Brown, Jr.; Flemings, Burries
The lottery has three more players locked in (twelve total): Lopez, Mara, Lendeborg

The biggest change I've seen in the last two weeks is that Lopez has been working his way up the boards (something that user Chuck Everett predicted would happen around this time). There was a while he was being projected in the late first round.

I haven't found a mock draft by Jonathan Givony, who used to be with ESPN and who originally founded Draft Express. Does anyone have a link to that or know what's going on there (does he even still make them?)?

[Caneman786]

On June 15, Sam Vecenie of the Athletic released his draft guide with his final player rankings and detailed scouting reports for 100 players in the class. It used to a PDF in the past, but now it's an interactive website:

Linked: https://t.co/mrptVeEvtc

When it comes to his tiers, he has kept those similar, so it's interesting to see how it compares with previous years. I think he may have gotten slightly more selective over the years with these higher ends (which checks out with the fact that roughly 30 to 40 players in each draft class even play in the NBA for at least five years, which should at most go down to tier 6, so the crackdown definitely puts it more in line historically).

The theme for this year is that the high end here up to tier 3 is quite strong this year, and in this decade, we haven't ever had 3 tier 1 players by Vecenie's assessment. Meanwhile, the depth is weaker than it has been in previous years, with these last two years having been the inflection point with players choosing to stay in college until the end of their contracts unless they are projected to be a first round pick (although, the decline in depth is also likely related to Vecenie simply getting less generous with prospect evaluations).

2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

Tier 0: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0
Tier 1: 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 3 (Dybantsa, Boozer, Peterson)
Tier 2: 3, 4, 3, 0, 1, 1 (Wilson)
Tier 3: 2, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6 (Acuff, Jr.; Wagler; Flemings; Burries; Lendeborg; Brown, Jr.)
Tier 4: 16, 12, 7, 10, 6, 5 (Johnson, Jr.; Steinbach; Mara; Ament; Swain)
Tier 5: 21, 28, 20, 13, 15, 10
Tier 6: 18, 29, 6, 11, 9, 10
Tier 7: 23, 22, 11, 15, 18, 13

List of all previous tier 0 guys and their draft pick: Wembanyama (2023, #1)
List of all previous tier 1 guys and their draft pick: Cunningham (2021, #1), Henderson (2023, #3), Flagg (2025, #1)

Tier 0 is for Victor Wembanyama
Tier 1 is for projected All-NBA players
Tier 2 is for projected All-Star players
Tier 3 is for projected high-level starters
Tier 4 is for projected starters
Tier 5 is for potential starters / rotation players
Tier 6 is for rotation players / guaranteed contracts
Tier 7 is for priority two-way players

Links to all previous draft guides:

Spoiler:

https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2021/07/21074551/2021-NBA-Draft-Guide-1.pdf (Password Dr@ft2021)
https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2022/06/23104633/2022_NBA-Draft-Guide-6.pdf (Password Dr@ft2022)
https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2023/06/20161330/2023_NBA-Draft-Guide-5.pdf (Password Dr@ft2023)
https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2024/06/21120038/NBA-Draft-Guide-REAL-7.pdf (Password Dr@ft2024)
https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2025/06/18185319/2025-NBA-Draft-Guide-Intl-Updates.pdf (Password NB@Dr@ft25)

[JMAC3]

5 - 75th percentile or higher outcomes
13 - 25th percentile to 75th percentile (middle 50%)
6 - 25th percentile or lower outcomes

I would need to see names from this exercise, because are you including guys that are 2 guards? like Anthony Edwards, Moody, etc..Guys that were drafted for their defense first? like Suggs, Cason Wallace, Dyson Daniels, Anthony Black, Davion because if so then you are missing the mark.

None of Wagler, Acuff, Mikel, Flemings are being picked because of their defensive tools. These are all offensive players that are point guard BMis (heights/weights). Comparing that group to Suggs, Wallace, Anthony Edwards, Moody etc is pointless because they are nothing like those players as prospects.

The guys that compare to that group are Garland, Coby White, Morant, LaMelo, Haliburton, Ivey, Scoot, Dillingham, Fears, etc.... Offensive minded players that are going to have similar BMI to the point guard position. How many of those guys are positive defenders?

Burries at 215 lbs is not the same bucket as 188 lb Acuff/Wagler/Mikel Brown.

[Cammo101]

Which of these small guards are going to have such great offensive impact that teams will build around them, drafting or acquiring great 2-way wings, like the Knicks did for Brunson?

Acuff.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I'm excited for this draft, and it is going to be interesting.

-The order of the Top 4 isn't set in stone.
-I see a big gap between some of Wagler/Acuff/Brown Jr/Flemings/Burries/Philon, I doubt they go consecutive. One or two will drop, likely beyond the Top 10 and into the teens.
-Teams with multiple picks should get aggressive
-Which of the non-Point Guards rise? Any of Yaxel/Mara/Hannes/Ament/Carr/Johnson Jr/Lopez could hop into the Top 10

[Caneman786]

I would need to see names from this exercise, because are you including guys that are 2 guards? like Anthony Edwards, Moody, etc..Guys that were drafted for their defense first? like Suggs, Cason Wallace, Dyson Daniels, Anthony Black, Davion because if so then you are missing the mark.

None of Wagler, Acuff, Mikel, Flemings are being picked because of their defensive tools. These are all offensive players that are point guard BMis (heights/weights). Comparing that group to Suggs, Wallace, Anthony Edwards, Moody etc is pointless because they are nothing like those players as prospects.

The guys that compare to that group are Garland, Coby White, Morant, LaMelo, Haliburton, Ivey, Scoot, Dillingham, Fears, etc.... Offensive minded players that are going to have similar BMI to the point guard position. How many of those guys are positive defenders?

Burries at 215 lbs is not the same bucket as 188 lb Acuff/Wagler/Mikel Brown.

First of all, Flemings in particular's defense has been a huge chip in his shoulder throughout the predraft process and is mentioned everywhere he's talked about. Maybe he isn't being drafted for "defensive tools", but defensive skill (and effort / motor / intensity, which I'll touch upon later) is more important than defensive tools (just like offensive skill), and it is playing a role in teams' evaluation of him. You also excluded Peterson, Burries, and Okorie, although they are all definitely guards and have played guard positions their entire careers, where defense is playing a huge role in their evaluation.

I didn't exclude shooting guards from the exercise since they are "guards": at least 3 of the 10 guards in this draft class played that position last year in college (Peterson; Burries; Philon, Jr.) and a few more have real potential to play that position (Brown, Jr. and Wagler for example based on size and skills alone). However, that's fine, I can work with your parameters.

When it comes to your idea of body measurements and "BMI similar to the point guard position", I wouldn't even say it's that important... I do think there's probably a correlation, but there are several really heavy guards out there who cough up defensive value at similar levels to Trae Young (Isaiah Collier now listed at 210 lbs. at 6' 2.5" without shoes, Cam Thomas listed at 210 lbs. at 6' 3" that could be in shoes, Jamal Murray who is now listed at 215 lbs. at 6' 3" without shoes, and all of these guys are in the xRAPM bottom thirteen among all NBA players). Meanwhile, there are also several slim guards who are passable or good defensively, and a bunch show up in the list below (not going to find a list because while there are a bunch of guards with this body type at the top of the charts, a lot of them were brought in the league for their defense so that excludes them from consideration). The point is though that there isn't that type of correlation of (that you specifically mention: 5 of 6 of them being bad defenders and maybe 1 being league average).

I won't go through my list right now (I laid out the methodology), but I'll go through your list of nine players (which excludes many other offensive-minded players who stayed good defenders and had your requisite body measurements of skinniness)

A bunch of the guys you specifically characterize as bad defenders aren't actually very poor in a team context, just having a few weaknesses but bringing positive values in other areas (and not just in defensive skill, also at least just when it comes to having effort and high motor, caring about defense, which isn't just something that can be turned on and off, but is a skill).

This is clearly more negatively slanted than the original list, not only being cherry-picked specifically for examples that you expected would fall into your group, but also specifically made looking for guards drafted for their offense. Yet, we still find plenty of them contributing defense at a league average level (standardizing all of them based on their xRAPM defensive number after three years in the league).

Garland, Coby White, Morant, LaMelo, Haliburton, Ivey, Scoot:

75th percentile+: 1
26th to 74th percentiles: 4
25th percentile-: 2

I'm gonna exclude Dillingham and Fears since they haven't played three years in the league. However, Dillingham in his first two years has ended up in the middle group on defense, while Fears has ended up in the low-end group.

Once again, I want to highlight your original comment (which you have made many times):

Because the vast majority of guards drafted highly are bad defenders, chances are maybe 1 out of the 6 will be league average, the rest will all be really poor defenders especially for the first couple of years of their careers.

Even if you say afterward that you were using hyperbole, the reality is that there's no truth to that idea that you express whatsoever. It isn't even skewed that way.

If you add a bunch of qualifiers such as saying that you are only including guards drafted for their offense and also only including guards who play the point guard position and have low BMI body types, then it does indeed skew it somewhat to the low-end side (of course it would), but even then, it is nowhere near the idea that you're mentioning that only 1 in 6 ever be maybe league average. It's more like 3 would be average, 2 would be poor, and 1 would be good.

If there's anything that scouting should teach us, it's not to make generalizations like this that are sweeping, and that defensive differences are important and differences do carry over into the NBA level, and make big differences into a player's outcome, and they shouldn't just be brushed over. There's big differences between all of the players: LaMelo Ball, Scoot Henderson, Trae Young, Darius Garland... what they bring on the defensive end, how their teams construct lineups based on that, and how those lineups end up actually being in practice.

To speak to the original point of the your reply (which I did not originally comment on, as I was taking issue with your broad generalization that guards drafted highly are poor defenders): As of right now, Acuff, Jr.'s a player on track to be that of the Trae Young (0th percentile in the xRAPM defensive metric) type or worse somehow (another user above also made this point). He doesn't just bring low defensive numbers, he has low defensive skill and technique, and also low defensive intensity / motor.

These combined traits make a combination that none of the other guards in this class have (even though the class has many offensively-slanted guards that play the point guard position that don't have high BMIs), and it shouldn't be brushed over, and it makes a difference in their outcomes at the NBA level, and is something that NBA Front Offices are looking at and care about.

[JMAC3]

I think you're missing the boat. You trying to lump in Peterson who is 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan while being 200 lbs is a massively different player than Flemings who is 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan. They are going to guard different players in the NBA.

You trying to scrape by with 25-75% defenders being the same player in this exercise is also a massive stretch.

I will just leave it at this, I think Acuff, Brown, Philon are all probably below average defenders next year and the year after that. Wagler and Flemings might have slightly better chance to be average but projecting them higher than that is probably a stretch.

I did the same thing with Scoot 3 years ago and people were saying he would be a bad defender was also dumb.

I think you lean into them being bad and if they are better than that great, but nobody should be taking Flemings over Acuff or Brown or Acuff because they are better defenders- because we really have no idea if that is the case. Small guards are typically bad defenders unless you are a known great defender predraft like Davion, Suggs, Dyson etc....

Burries is the only guy that should be getting drafted higher for his defense from this group of guards. Drafting 173 lbs Philon for defense upside is funny tho.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I think you're missing the boat. You trying to lump in Peterson who is 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan while being 200 lbs is a massively different player than Flemings who is 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan. They are going to guard different players in the NBA.

You trying to scrape by with 25-75% defenders being the same player in this exercise is also a massive stretch.

I will just leave it at this, I think Acuff, Brown, Philon are all probably below average defenders next year and the year after that. Wagler and Flemings might have slightly better chance to be average but projecting them higher than that is probably a stretch.

I did the same thing with Scoot 3 years ago and people were saying he would be a bad defender was also dumb.

I think you lean into them being bad and if they are better than that great, but nobody should be taking Flemings over Acuff or Brown or Acuff because they are better defenders- because we really have no idea if that is the case. Small guards are typically bad defenders unless you are a known great defender predraft like Davion, Suggs, Dyson etc....

Burries is the only guy that should be getting drafted higher for his defense from this group of guards. Drafting 173 lbs Philon for defense upside is funny tho.

Yeah, what are we doing here?

Flemings is a one position defender. He is 6'2" with a 6-3 wingspan. He can't guard NBA sized Shooting Guards.

Burries is also a year older than basically all these guards. Be careful.

[codydaze]

I'd like to see Ament in Dallas. Masai has a track record of prioritizing length and if he hits, Ament and Flagg would be a pretty awesome duo at the forwards.

[Caneman786]

You trying to scrape by with 25-75% defenders being the same player in this exercise is also a massive stretch.

The reason I was doing this was to keep it in the most broad categories. I'm not saying they're the same players, just that by the broadest stretch of the imagination you can consider them "average defenders", being in the middle half of the league. Everyone of course excels in some areas and is worse in different areas. However, it's really different to have something like that being "average" (and the 25th and 75th percentiles are more similar to each other than they are to...) vs. the stereotype of a small guard walking in and being an actively destructive defenders such as your example Jaden Ivey, who was a 2nd percentile defender per xRAPM after 3 years in the league, or a Trae Young... which is also different to the 99th percentile guys like Alex Caruso.

I did the same thing with Scoot 3 years ago and people were saying he would be a bad defender was also dumb.

How poor was Henderson projected to be defensively? I wasn't following the draft as closely back then, but I was under the impression that he was quite good in that regard pre-draft and we probably would have ranked him somewhere between Flemings and Burries this year (defensively).

In any case, you ended up being right, I don't think he has been a very poor defender at all. It has been three seasons that he has spent in the NBA< and in the metric you brang up (Defensive-EPM), he ranks in the 53rd percentile on defense among all NBA players. In xRAPM, he is in the 28th percentile. You could say he has been average (overall, with some areas being worse and some being better).

Also, Scoot doesn't really fit the criteria of having low BMI, having a special body type with a 6' 9" wingspan and being listed at a stocky 207 lbs.

I think you lean into them being bad and if they are better than that great, but nobody should be taking Flemings over Acuff or Brown or Acuff because they are better defenders- because we really have no idea if that is the case.

I disagree with this idea. I think we do know that it's the case that Flemings is a significantly better defender than Acuff, Jr., and that Brown Jr., is better than Acuff, Jr., but is not as good as Flemings. They all played D1 college basketball for a season, which is the same league, and they all showcased their abilities in that regard.

If they get to the NBA and suddenly reverse completely in order in defensive quality (with Acuff, Jr. being the best and Flemings being the worst), it'd be quite shocking, honestly, and there isn't really anything we could have done to predict that.

Small guards are typically bad defenders unless you are a known great defender predraft like Davion, Suggs, Dyson etc...

Burries is the only guy that should be getting drafted higher for his defense from this group of guards. Drafting 173 lbs Philon for defense upside is funny tho.

I think overall, we philosophically disagree on this (mainly that I think that in scouting guards (even "small guards"), their defensive quality matters considerably and should be taken into account; holistically speaking, we shouldn't just rank the guards based on their offensive ability, in fact, defense should be looked at with depth and attention to detail to the same way we do with offense) (and also that I disagree with the generalization... most small guards are not gonna be bad defenders, they might be skewed towards the bad side, but most of them will be average defenders), so I'll just leave it at that.

[JMAC3]

You trying to scrape by with 25-75% defenders being the same player in this exercise is also a massive stretch.

The reason I was doing this was to keep it in the most broad categories. I'm not saying they're the same players, just that by the broadest stretch of the imagination you can consider them "average defenders", being in the middle half of the league. Everyone of course excels in some areas and is worse in different areas. However, it's really different to have something like that being "average" (and the 25th and 75th percentiles are more similar to each other than they are to...) vs. the stereotype of a small guard walking in and being an actively destructive defenders such as your example Jaden Ivey, who was a 2nd percentile defender per xRAPM after 3 years in the league, or a Trae Young... which is also different to the 99th percentile guys like Alex Caruso.

I did the same thing with Scoot 3 years ago and people were saying he would be a bad defender was also dumb.

How poor was Henderson projected to be defensively? I wasn't following the draft as closely back then, but I was under the impression that he was quite good in that regard pre-draft and we probably would have ranked him somewhere between Flemings and Burries this year (defensively).

In any case, you ended up being right, I don't think he has been a very poor defender at all. It has been three seasons that he has spent in the NBA< and in the metric you brang up (Defensive-EPM), he ranks in the 53rd percentile on defense among all NBA players. In xRAPM, he is in the 28th percentile. You could say he has been average (overall, with some areas being worse and some being better).

Also, Scoot doesn't really fit the criteria of having low BMI, having a special body type with a 6' 9" wingspan and being listed at a stocky 207 lbs.

I think you lean into them being bad and if they are better than that great, but nobody should be taking Flemings over Acuff or Brown or Acuff because they are better defenders- because we really have no idea if that is the case.

I disagree with this idea. I think we do know that it's the case that Flemings is a significantly better defender than Acuff, Jr., and that Brown Jr., is better than Acuff, Jr., but is not as good as Flemings. They all played D1 college basketball for a season, which is the same league, and they all showcased their abilities in that regard.

If they get to the NBA and suddenly reverse completely in order in defensive quality (with Acuff, Jr. being the best and Flemings being the worst), it'd be quite shocking, honestly, and there isn't really anything we could have done to predict that.

Small guards are typically bad defenders unless you are a known great defender predraft like Davion, Suggs, Dyson etc...

Burries is the only guy that should be getting drafted higher for his defense from this group of guards. Drafting 173 lbs Philon for defense upside is funny tho.

I think overall, we philosophically disagree on this (mainly that I think that in scouting guards (even "small guards"), their defensive quality matters considerably and should be taken into account; holistically speaking, we shouldn't just rank the guards based on their offensive ability, in fact, defense should be looked at with depth and attention to detail to the same way we do with offense) (and also that I disagree with the generalization... most small guards are not gonna be bad defenders, they might be skewed towards the bad side, but most of them will be average defenders), so I'll just leave it at that.

Flemings is more of a product of his environment than anything special defensively. Houston plays a very aggressive defense with Tugler (Defensive player of the year behind it). His steals are higher but he was surrounded by NBA size and athleticism in an aggressive scheme. Just like I think projecting Emmanuel Sharp to be the same level defender in the NBA as he was in college with his 6-3 frame, 6-3 wingspan and 33 inch max vert is probably wishful thinking.

As far as Scoot I will trust the sample sizes.
Rookie Year he played 1765 mins and was 1% defender
Soph Year he played 1759 mins and was 5% defender.
This year he played far less minutes at 748 mins and was 55% defender.

Which do you think is the outlier?

Lastly, You just compared 6-5 Alex Caruso to Trae Young- they are nothing alike physically. Like brother what are we doing here lol

[Caneman786]

As far as Scoot I will trust the sample sizes.
Rookie Year he played 1765 mins and was 1% defender
Soph Year he played 1759 mins and was 5% defender.
This year he played far less minutes at 748 mins and was 55% defender.

Which do you think is the outlier?

None of them are outliers, they build on top of each other. EPM specifically uses data from multiple seasons. I'm taking this year's figure.

EDIT: My mistake, I was wrong about this.

Lastly, You just compared 6-5 Alex Caruso to Trae Young- they are nothing alike physically. Like brother what are we doing here lol

I heavily contrasted them as examples on the opposite sides of each other. We are talking about guards here and you brang up someone like LaMelo Ball, which opens the door to bring up Alex Caruso. Alex Caruso at 6' 4.5" who was measured at 181 pounds (which is quite a slight frame, and this is after his senior year of college!) qualifies as having this type of size. I also used Jaden Ivey, who is listed at 6' 3". I could have used any number of terrible guard defenders who have Caruso's size.

[JMAC3]

As far as Scoot I will trust the sample sizes.
Rookie Year he played 1765 mins and was 1% defender
Soph Year he played 1759 mins and was 5% defender.
This year he played far less minutes at 748 mins and was 55% defender.

Which do you think is the outlier?

None of them are outliers, they build on top of each other. EPM specifically uses data from multiple seasons. I'm taking this year's figure.

Lastly, You just compared 6-5 Alex Caruso to Trae Young- they are nothing alike physically. Like brother what are we doing here lol

I heavily contrasted them as examples on the opposite sides of each other. We are talking about guards here and you brang up someone like LaMelo Ball, which opens the door to bring up Alex Caruso. Alex Caruso at 6' 4.5" who was measured at 181 pounds (which is quite a slight frame, and this is after his senior year of college!) qualifies as having this type of size. I also used Jaden Ivey, who is listed at 6' 3". I could have used any number of terrible guard defenders who have Caruso's size.

EPM doesn't build off other seasons. The actual data is for that year only- which is what I shared above.

Caruso probably weighs 210 lbs if not 220 lbs right now lol

Which again shows why trying to compare all guards is foolish- which you continue to try and do.

LaMelo Ball is built like Mikel Brown and Wagler, tall but skinny which likely means they are going to profile as poor defenders who end up fouling a lot because they have weaker frames.

Balls Def EPM by year.
19%, 46%, 14%, 7%, 12%, 46%. ---

Again, I haven't brought up Peterson, Burries as bad defenders-- because unlike the rest they have the physical size and tools that should led them to be good defenders. Nor was I saying Suggs or Davion would be bad defenders because they had a reputation and the size to be good defenders.

[JMAC3]

Haliburton is another guy whose defense is bad, because he is too skinny.

15%, 8%, 36%, 27% and 28% level defender.

I think Acuff, Philon, Flemings, Wagler could all post either a 8% def epm or 28% def epm. To me the difference is very marginal.... and drafting a guy because of that seems pretty pointless.

Whereas someone like Jamal Shead was a known defensive player, defensive player of the year. He posted an 80% defensive epm this year, so again not saying it is impossible for all guards to be good defenders...

but the vast majority of lottery guards who are going to have high usage are just bound to be sub 30% defenders most years. Flemings, Acuff, Philon, Mikel, Wagler are all being picked in the lottery because of their high usage ball skills- not because some team is hoping they are a 40% def epm player.

[CptCrunch]

I would need to see names from this exercise, because are you including guys that are 2 guards? like Anthony Edwards, Moody, etc..Guys that were drafted for their defense first? like Suggs, Cason Wallace, Dyson Daniels, Anthony Black, Davion because if so then you are missing the mark.

None of Wagler, Acuff, Mikel, Flemings are being picked because of their defensive tools. These are all offensive players that are point guard BMis (heights/weights). Comparing that group to Suggs, Wallace, Anthony Edwards, Moody etc is pointless because they are nothing like those players as prospects.

The guys that compare to that group are Garland, Coby White, Morant, LaMelo, Haliburton, Ivey, Scoot, Dillingham, Fears, etc.... Offensive minded players that are going to have similar BMI to the point guard position. How many of those guys are positive defenders?

Burries at 215 lbs is not the same bucket as 188 lb Acuff/Wagler/Mikel Brown.

First of all, Flemings in particular's defense has been a huge chip in his shoulder throughout the predraft process and is mentioned everywhere he's talked about. Maybe he isn't being drafted for "defensive tools", but defensive skill (and effort / motor / intensity, which I'll touch upon later) is more important than defensive tools (just like offensive skill), and it is playing a role in teams' evaluation of him. You also excluded Peterson, Burries, and Okorie, although they are all definitely guards and have played guard positions their entire careers, where defense is playing a huge role in their evaluation.

I didn't exclude shooting guards from the exercise since they are "guards": at least 3 of the 10 guards in this draft class played that position last year in college (Peterson; Burries; Philon, Jr.) and a few more have real potential to play that position (Brown, Jr. and Wagler for example based on size and skills alone). However, that's fine, I can work with your parameters.

When it comes to your idea of body measurements and "BMI similar to the point guard position", I wouldn't even say it's that important... I do think there's probably a correlation, but there are several really heavy guards out there who cough up defensive value at similar levels to Trae Young (Isaiah Collier now listed at 210 lbs. at 6' 2.5" without shoes, Cam Thomas listed at 210 lbs. at 6' 3" that could be in shoes, Jamal Murray who is now listed at 215 lbs. at 6' 3" without shoes, and all of these guys are in the xRAPM bottom thirteen among all NBA players). Meanwhile, there are also several slim guards who are passable or good defensively, and a bunch show up in the list below (not going to find a list because while there are a bunch of guards with this body type at the top of the charts, a lot of them were brought in the league for their defense so that excludes them from consideration). The point is though that there isn't that type of correlation of (that you specifically mention: 5 of 6 of them being bad defenders and maybe 1 being league average).

I won't go through my list right now (I laid out the methodology), but I'll go through your list of nine players (which excludes many other offensive-minded players who stayed good defenders and had your requisite body measurements of skinniness)

A bunch of the guys you specifically characterize as bad defenders aren't actually very poor in a team context, just having a few weaknesses but bringing positive values in other areas (and not just in defensive skill, also at least just when it comes to having effort and high motor, caring about defense, which isn't just something that can be turned on and off, but is a skill).

This is clearly more negatively slanted than the original list, not only being cherry-picked specifically for examples that you expected would fall into your group, but also specifically made looking for guards drafted for their offense. Yet, we still find plenty of them contributing defense at a league average level (standardizing all of them based on their xRAPM defensive number after three years in the league).

Garland, Coby White, Morant, LaMelo, Haliburton, Ivey, Scoot:

75th percentile+: 1
26th to 74th percentiles: 4
25th percentile-: 2

I'm gonna exclude Dillingham and Fears since they haven't played three years in the league. However, Dillingham in his first two years has ended up in the middle group on defense, while Fears has ended up in the low-end group.

Once again, I want to highlight your original comment (which you have made many times):

Because the vast majority of guards drafted highly are bad defenders, chances are maybe 1 out of the 6 will be league average, the rest will all be really poor defenders especially for the first couple of years of their careers.

Even if you say afterward that you were using hyperbole, the reality is that there's no truth to that idea that you express whatsoever. It isn't even skewed that way.

If you add a bunch of qualifiers such as saying that you are only including guards drafted for their offense and also only including guards who play the point guard position and have low BMI body types, then it does indeed skew it somewhat to the low-end side (of course it would), but even then, it is nowhere near the idea that you're mentioning that only 1 in 6 ever be maybe league average. It's more like 3 would be average, 2 would be poor, and 1 would be good.

If there's anything that scouting should teach us, it's not to make generalizations like this that are sweeping, and that defensive differences are important and differences do carry over into the NBA level, and make big differences into a player's outcome, and they shouldn't just be brushed over. There's big differences between all of the players: LaMelo Ball, Scoot Henderson, Trae Young, Darius Garland... what they bring on the defensive end, how their teams construct lineups based on that, and how those lineups end up actually being in practice.

To speak to the original point of the your reply (which I did not originally comment on, as I was taking issue with your broad generalization that guards drafted highly are poor defenders): As of right now, Acuff, Jr.'s a player on track to be that of the Trae Young (0th percentile in the xRAPM defensive metric) type or worse somehow (another user above also made this point). He doesn't just bring low defensive numbers, he has low defensive skill and technique, and also low defensive intensity / motor.

These combined traits make a combination that none of the other guards in this class have (even though the class has many offensively-slanted guards that play the point guard position that don't have high BMIs), and it shouldn't be brushed over, and it makes a difference in their outcomes at the NBA level, and is something that NBA Front Offices are looking at and care about.

Also just point out that defensive stats are confounded by team effects. There isn't a precise way of measurement defensive impact especially in college with few games and disparity in team talent.

Even the best guard defenders and worst guard defenders don't differ much as guard defense is pretty negligible compared to help defense and center anchors. It's doubtful that Flemings can become an all-nba defender immediately, so penciling in any defensive impact is future dated exercise.

[Caneman786]

Even the best guard defenders and worst guard defenders don't differ much as guard defense is pretty negligible compared to help defense and center anchors.

Interesting, what is this based on?