Official Trade Thread Part XLVIII

[Sluggerface]

Talk to these fellas man... TALK TO EM!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right now the year to worry about in these circumstances is 2028-2029, which is after AD's PO, and is when Kyshawn's team option run out, and when Sarr is looking at a first year potential max. The luxury tax threshold is estimated to be between 221-225 mil that season.

Obviously anything said below is going to be spitball numbers because who has the time for that nonsense.

Lets say AD signs at the exact same level that Trae does, 53 mil a year for a two year extension after his his PO with a PO at the same time as Trae.

for 2028-2029 you're looking at 106 mil for Trae + AD, 43 for Sarr Rookie max @ estimated 173 mil cap during 28-29. That's almost a total of 150 mil invested against a projected 221 mil lux tax threshold. That's 71 mil left over for extensions of Kyshawn, Whatever the team gave Bilal, Bub Carrington, and Justin.

It is not impossible, and it's entirely workable if you take the postion that one of these dudes, maybe even TWO does not have a future with the Wizards.

Actually, keeping those numbers in mind, Washington could probably even offer Anthony more, and still avoid the first apron in critical years.

And now I'm 1000x more convince over the Wizards bargaining position with other teams than I was this morning.

The roster isn't just Trae, AD and Sarr. You have to factor the cost of whatever rookie contracts and vet-minimum contracts are on the roster. That's 12 more guys! It adds up. Why would you force us to jettison at least two of Riley/Bilal/Kyshawn/Tre (not to mention Bub and JC) just to make sure we keep a 35-year-old AD on the roster? And you will also hamstring our ability to sign any other vets to round out our roster - like a credible backup center or a backup PG.

Alright. So about 70 mil for 'errybody else.

AD+TY+Sarr committed. That's 3.

AJ + Johnson + Riley would eat up 27.5 mil in 28-29 with the team expending the last team options for Johnson/Riley. That's 6 players, and we're still two years from Anicet's first extension.

That's 42 mil left to pad out a 6 man rotation of a team that you expect to be in the middle of competing for playoff annually before hitting tax threshold. Projected cap is about 182 mil, of which we'd be 5 Mil under give or take. MLE projected at about 16.5. Let's say rookie scale stays under ballpark numbers of 5mil a year for any picks under 15.

With continued Savvy drafting like the team has been doing + building the asset cabinet they have, there's plenty of wiggle room to pad out the Roster past 6 for a playoff worthy rotation of 8, maybe nine dudes.

And this is before the team can gear up and retool to build around Anicet's prime years.

[gambitx777]

For the record. I dont like yaxel i just think we need to take all we can get. I think hes a less good modern antwan jamison. Which is probably fine at #11 but i think hes older and shows signs of not being able to keep up against nba comp. I dont think hes a wizards type character guy. If we had 11 I would have taken stinebach.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Golden State is going to try to unload salary on us in this transaction. I think they need to do it to avoid the 1st Apron to allow their Lebron gambit to actually happen.

With that the case, we are likely to get stuck with Moses Moody in the deal. Moody is under contract for 3 more years at $12.5M per year, and he tore his patellar tendon last March and should be out until at least January.

It's going to make it tough for us to address the backup center issue unless Ted is prepared to pay the luxury tax.

Why assume the Wizards need to do a thing at backup C? Play JuJu Reese and Felix Okpara along with Tristan Vukcevic.

Let AD and Alex Sarr mentor the young ones.

OK Para blocks shots.
Reese rebounds.
Vuk scores.

I know this is the trade thread but I see no reason to be urgent.

I could see making a two-for one player deal to cut a roster spot. The Wizards have too many SFs.

I love your posts but... AD would be a very bad mentor, IMO.

Vuk, Okpara and Reese will just have to do...

They could beat his butt every practice. Make him sit.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This AD to GSW has some legs. From a FO perspective, would you rather have a two-year run of AD & Trae for the kids, or do you take Butler and fight to make the play-in? The Wiz would seriously be scrambling to fill-out an already weak front court.

Butler would provide diminishing returns from Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Kyshawn George, and Jamir Watkins.

Since AD would weaken a thin frontcourt.

I do not like the idea of adding Butler, unless the idea is to Brian Keefe fired quickly..

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well I guess I’m interested if we get back Yaxel in the deal. 6-10 with 7-5 wing plays physically can rebound, defend all over, protect the rim, and shoot it. And he’s 10 years young than AD on a rookie contract. A front court of Sarr, Yaxel, AJ is pretty tantalizing.

I would want to include D-lo in the deal.

The benefit of making the move now instead of dealing AD at the deadline is we get assets for AD now, and then one Butler gets back on the court we can move him at the deadline to a contender and get even more assets, maybe another late 1st or future 1st.

Exactly.

This is an extremely good situation for the Wizards long term. We should all be very happy if this pans out.

Why assume the Wizards need to do a thing at backup C? Play JuJu Reese and Felix Okpara along with Tristan Vukcevic.

Let AD and Alex Sarr mentor the young ones.

OK Para blocks shots.
Reese rebounds.
Vuk scores.

I know this is the trade thread but I see no reason to be urgent.

I could see making a two-for one player deal to cut a roster spot. The Wizards have too many SFs.

I love your posts but... AD would be a very bad mentor, IMO.

Vuk, Okpara and Reese will just have to do...

Vuk, Okapara and Reese aren't good enough lol

If we get Yaxel, then I love the deal.

Butler can be flipped later, or he can become a mentor like CJM.

I assumed the Warriors would keep Lendeborg. I think they're dumb to count AD signed long-term without youth backing him up.

[nate33]

Right now the year to worry about in these circumstances is 2028-2029, which is after AD's PO, and is when Kyshawn's team option run out, and when Sarr is looking at a first year potential max. The luxury tax threshold is estimated to be between 221-225 mil that season.

Obviously anything said below is going to be spitball numbers because who has the time for that nonsense.

Lets say AD signs at the exact same level that Trae does, 53 mil a year for a two year extension after his his PO with a PO at the same time as Trae.

for 2028-2029 you're looking at 106 mil for Trae + AD, 43 for Sarr Rookie max @ estimated 173 mil cap during 28-29. That's almost a total of 150 mil invested against a projected 221 mil lux tax threshold. That's 71 mil left over for extensions of Kyshawn, Whatever the team gave Bilal, Bub Carrington, and Justin.

It is not impossible, and it's entirely workable if you take the postion that one of these dudes, maybe even TWO does not have a future with the Wizards.

Actually, keeping those numbers in mind, Washington could probably even offer Anthony more, and still avoid the first apron in critical years.

And now I'm 1000x more convince over the Wizards bargaining position with other teams than I was this morning.

The roster isn't just Trae, AD and Sarr. You have to factor the cost of whatever rookie contracts and vet-minimum contracts are on the roster. That's 12 more guys! It adds up. Why would you force us to jettison at least two of Riley/Bilal/Kyshawn/Tre (not to mention Bub and JC) just to make sure we keep a 35-year-old AD on the roster? And you will also hamstring our ability to sign any other vets to round out our roster - like a credible backup center or a backup PG.

Alright. So about 70 mil for 'errybody else.

AD+TY+Sarr committed. That's 3.

AJ + Johnson + Riley would eat up 27.5 mil in 28-29 with the team expending the last team options for Johnson/Riley. That's 6 players, and we're still two years from Anicet's first extension.

That's 42 mil left to pad out a 6 man rotation of a team that you expect to be in the middle of competing for playoff annually before hitting tax threshold. Projected cap is about 182 mil, of which we'd be 5 Mil under give or take. MLE projected at about 16.5. Let's say rookie scale stays under ballpark numbers of 5mil a year for any picks under 15.

With continued Savvy drafting like the team has been doing + building the asset cabinet they have, there's plenty of wiggle room to pad out the Roster past 6 for a playoff worthy rotation of 8, maybe nine dudes.

And this is before the team can gear up and retool to build around Anicet's prime years.

Like I said. You just let Bilal and Kyshawn walk just so you can keep a 35 year old AD.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We have to be honest, this AD to GS is going to happen. Klutch moves and moves fast. I'm not in a rush to bring in another player. I don't like Sabonis because the defense is already questionable with Trae. I think they make the move take the draft capital and then re-evaluate.

It's interesting that you are apoplectic replacing AD with an NBA-ready starting PF like Yaxel, because of the impact on our winning potential over the very short term; but you are fine replacing AD with future picks.

I think Yaxel is better than AJ.

Who would you rate better, Draymond Green or Dominique Wilkins? If the Warriors replaced Draymond with Dominique would they have won more or less?

Role player or scorer?

[AFM]

DAWKINS!!!! DO SOMETHING!!!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We have to be honest, this AD to GS is going to happen. Klutch moves and moves fast. I'm not in a rush to bring in another player. I don't like Sabonis because the defense is already questionable with Trae. I think they make the move take the draft capital and then re-evaluate.

It's interesting that you are apoplectic replacing AD with an NBA-ready starting PF like Yaxel, because of the impact on our winning potential over the very short term; but you are fine replacing AD with future picks.

I think it comes down to the goal. I'm taking draft picks because I want to trade them for another star. The stars that are available today are not the stars that will be available tomorrow. Yaxel on this team gives me the impression that this is the roster that we want to move forward with. I don't think our team can compete with the best teams without another legit star. I like Yaxel he fits well but the ceiling on this team is drastically lower.

With Yaxel I would hope Alex and AJ become stars. Trae definitely is a offensive engine. I also like Bilal as a G with defensive acumen.

Trae
Bilal
AJ
Yaxel
Alex

Seems like it would be decent with Kyshawn, Will, Tre, and Bub off the bench.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

But if you're shipping out AD without getting more frontcourt help beyond a rookie, what are you even doing? The Wizards have been a soft rebounding team. Being more competitive next season and beyond, you need to fix that.

Right now, you have a HOFer and top 75 player who's one of the best rebounders and defenders in the NBA. He is oft-injured but he isn't coming off a torn ACL.

Eh, the Thunder were very good in the regular season with Chet Holmgren (who weighs less today than Sarr ever did) as their primary C. They did get Hart to get them over the hump, but that's not where we are right now. We also have good rebounding wings as well.

Small-ball can't really go the distance anymore, but it's good enough for the regular season with guys like JC and Bilal and George. A good backup C would be nice though.

I think it comes down to the goal. I'm taking draft picks because I want to trade them for another star. The stars that are available today are not the stars that will be available tomorrow. Yaxel on this team gives me the impression that this is the roster that we want to move forward with. I don't think our team can compete with the best teams without another legit star. I like Yaxel he fits well but the ceiling on this team is drastically lower.

I think Sarr has another big leap in him offensively, and if he's even above average offensively with his rim protection, that's your second star right there.

Alex seems poised for stardom if he can stay healthy.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And let me just state the blatantly obvious. Is Rich Paul, actually going to go up to AD, who is still only 33 years old, and has never once had a major surgery. That the best thing for his career, is to jump ship and force his way on a "Legends" team, with a 42 year old Lebron coming off a season dealing with Sciatica, a 38 year old Stephen Curry coming off a season with Bone Brusining and Runners Knee. Draymond Green, who will be 37 by the time the playoffs start, and has been battle lower back issues.

This team is going to stand up and compete against Victor Wembayama and the rest of the Spurs 20 something all-star caliber guards, against OKC's championship caliber athlete rotations.

So what, AD goes there, gives up a **** ton of usage to be part of a "legends" team, in what very limited prime years he has left, to "pour one out for the boys" if you will.

This is the ultimate Joe Lacob / Sillicon Valley / Tech bro delusional fantasy that is evident from a society living in an artificial intelligence bubble. Like it's literally the most dumbass take that asks you to abdicate all human reason, and not seeing the situation for what it is, which is Golden State not knowing what the hell to do with Curry's twilight years, and refusing to accept objective PHYSICAL reality.

I've been enjoying the Rich Paul Max Kellerman clips for the past year. Just watch this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DUZSbezgz5E

Pairing this with what Rich has said about AD on the Wizards, there's no way in hell this makes sense for AD, as long standing as those ties are.

Washington is going to suggest to them the same kind of deal as Trae. Dawkins and Winger have a reputation as straight shooters as evidenced by CJ MCollum. They'll ask for him to opt out of 2027 and negotiate a team friendly deal that keeps everyone happy, keeps AD paid in the long term, leaves us open to extend whatever core guys we need to without flirting with the luxury tax too hard, and keeps AD as a high usage focal point on a playoff contending team. If this is not sufficient enough, we will work to trade him to a different team. Ala Portland, or a Golden State, who will still be in the orbit come trade deadline.

I hope you're right.

[Sluggerface]

Nevermind. Ignore my dumbass ramblings. Nate was right, redid the napkin math. If Washington extends AD's current contract into a max @ 70+ a year. Given current contracts and no extensions, Washington is over cap from 2027 until 2030. Still under luxury tax each year, but solidly over cap and relying on existing nickle and dime contracts and the MLE with no extensions to our core whatsoever. It clears up in 2030 by the time AJ's extension would theoretically kick in, but it's not the kind of ideal flexibility you would want.

I was under the assumption the team could fade keeping at least one of Kyshawn and Bilal, not letting both walk.

They cannot sign AD at the money that he's looking for. The question now is if anybody else in the NBA is willing too, that can maintain the championship level pedigree and playoff contention that he's looking for.

[Sluggerface]

The team has only paid the luxury tax once in franchise history. Some projections are quoting post 2030 as getting as high as 250mil for the cap. If there is a time to do it, it's now, while the team can cash in on speculative fearness, an impending rebrand, and finishing arena renovations. Frontloading AD's contract would help. He hasn't blown his achilles yet, and will always be a tradeable player given the competitive directions some of the best teams are taking to address the Wemby problem. He's going to be a first ballot hall of famer. With the draft capital that Dawkins and Winger have assembled, they can still come out of 2030 strong, even if teams start clamming up at the trade deadlines due to lottery changes.

[doclinkin]

Washington has all the leverage when you realize they’re not just trading AD for Butler, but AD + LeBJ.

Don’t discount the fact that Curry and LeBJ have talked about pairing together. The franchise owes Curry whatever he wants in his final run. And they wouldn’t suffer by the addition. Merch sales alone for Bron warriors gear would be thru the roof.

Would it would be awkward to ship the rookie pick? If you’re adding LeBron and AD in the front court, you get over it. There’s not a lot of room up front with Bron, Dray, AD.

Trading Yaxel would not be the sticking point to prevent adding the GOAT next to the player who matters most to the franchise. Yax /> LeBron + AD.

No the real difficulty would be giving up future picks looking towards the time when the legends retire all at once.

I can see them giving up swaps, but not the picks entirely. And asking for some of the Wiz hoard of 2nds.

OR young prospects given we have a deep bench of wings. I’d bet Bron would be trying to pry away George who he has spoken highly of. But he also cited Bub in the past. I just doubt Dawkins gives up any of the young core.

Especially since I don’t think we’ll be able to trade Butler. He’s another player ring-hunting for his legacy. I fully expect Butler would expire then return to GSW on a one year deal just to join the crew. You could interpret what he said in the recent interview about the trade as saying he’d be back eventually. Back to the Ws that is.

So. No. At this point I think there’s enough momentum to the thing that the deal has to happen. It’s just about balancing it out so that the Wiz get enough back after trading ‘2 first round picks’ for AD.

And so that the Ws don’t look totally cleaned out in the future after this final run with the old folks mob.

[Sluggerface]

Washington has all the leverage when you realize they’re not just trading AD for Butler, but AD + LeBJ.

Don’t discount the fact that Curry and LeBJ have talked about pairing together. The franchise owes Curry whatever he wants in his final run. And they wouldn’t suffer by the addition. Merch sales alone for Bron warriors gear would be thru the roof.

Would it would be awkward to ship the rookie pick? If you’re adding LeBron and AD in the front court, you get over it. There’s not a lot of room up front with Bron, Dray, AD.

Trading Yaxel would not be the sticking point to prevent adding the GOAT next to the player who matters most to the franchise. Yax /> LeBron + AD.

No the real difficulty would be giving up future picks looking towards the time when the legends retire all at once.

I can see them giving up swaps, but not the picks entirely. And asking for some of the Wiz hoard of 2nds.

OR young prospects given we have a deep bench of wings. I’d bet Bron would be trying to pry away George who he has spoken highly of. But he also cited Bub in the past. I just doubt Dawkins gives up any of the young core.

Especially since I don’t think we’ll be able to trade Butler. He’s another player ring-hunting for his legacy. I fully expect Butler would expire then return to GSW on a one year deal just to join the crew. You could interpret what he said in the recent interview about the trade as saying he’d be back eventually. Back to the Ws that is.

So. No. At this point I think there’s enough momentum to the thing that the deal has to happen. It’s just about balancing it out so that the Wiz get enough back after trading ‘2 first round picks’ for AD.

And so that the Ws don’t look totally cleaned out in the future after this final run with the old folks mob.

Important thing to note with this too is that AD can try this for a year + an opt in and back out for a semi-longer term deal if he really wants to. There's still going to be some level of suitors for a 35 year old AD. I don't think it's the best strategy, but AD and Rich have a lot of wiggle room here if this is what AD really wants.

[doclinkin]

Just a reminder. The player we saw at Michigan barely scratches the surface of his talent:

Watch on YouTube

As a Wolverine he looked a little thicker and slower. I think on this team, surrounded by workout fanatics and analytical medical staff we might see him trim back up to the quicker more agile version we saw at UAB.

To recap my arguments from the draft, the fact that he’s 24 matters little considering how radically he tweaked his game throughout his college career. He wasn’t simply crushing younger players with increased mass. He added finesse every year. Passing. Handling. Shooting.

Players who show a talent for improvement tend to improve at the next level too. Consider that NBAers tend to reach their prime at age 27. This means we could get prime production during his rookie contract and extension. Thats a bad thing?

I’m happy hanging on to AD for 40 games or so instead of trading simply for future picks alone. But give me Yax + anything and I’m alright.

I also think Jimmy Buckets would appreciate the attitude and effort of the guys we have, even as a short time player. I’d love to see him impart knowledge to AJ. His toughness on D and in the post are exactly what AJ needs a mentor in.

I’d love to have him as a Yoda for the rook over AD checked out and disinterested. But if the Ws don’t offer a thing we like then ADs best hope for the right trade is to play and well til the deadline. I’d say the price goes up at that point though.

[Sluggerface]

I'm about to just start rattling off Trade Partners in a drunken rapid fire. Starting with the champs. All trades end with Yaxel on WSH, Butler on 3rd team, and Davis on GSW.

The Champs

SAS
Wash: Fox, FRP
Outcome: The option you take if you can't balk down AD from a 285 million extension. The epitome of "taking bad money" deal. Fox's contract gives you wiggle room to extend maybe 1 to 2 guys. SAS gets cap flexibility and may get some usage of Butler being a dawg and providing grit for a team sorely needing it.
The Bad: F$%@ no.

NYK
Wash: Bridges
Outcome: Seen this option floated around a couple of times. New York gains long term cap flexibility. Doesn't lose much in a straight 1 to 1 butler/bridges swap in terms of 2027 championship aspirations. I actually like this deal and feel like it's somewhat sensible for each team. Butler comes off the books next year when Brunson/OG are up for player options.

Some Tax Hell Destinations

SAC
Wash: Sabonis
SAC: FRP
Outcome: Sac gets out of tax hell as soon as possible and can begin rebuilding. Don't see them as willing players though. They can get more out of Sabonis than this. Maybe with a 4th team entering the picture?

POR
Wash: Ja Morant
POR: A bag of chips and cash considerations
Outcome: We take on the UNTRADEABLE as a consolation prize for totally not giving Portland what they want at all.

Over The Tax, What the Hell am I doing here

PHI
wash: Paul George
phi: two 2nd's
Outcome: Phi avoids PG's PO. Prob would have to get 4th team involved to sweeten package with PHI.

PHO
wash: the last of the suns lifeblood.
pho: some chips to get the ball rolling on the monopoly board.
outcome: the most milquetoast outcome I can think of.

https://www.espn.com/nba/trademachine
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2027

Looking at these now, I'm struggling to see a scenario where you don't just roll the dice with AD, I like Yaxel, but not enough to the point where I like him over a future 1st ballot HOF big man who still has something left in the tank. Maybe yall can be better at this, but I don't see how we walk away with something like Yaxel + another FRP with this market. I feel like GS would have to land Lebron first and then you start talking a Butler / Davis swap with Yaxel + Pick straight up before the trade deadline.

[ledell_gumbo]

Nate, I'm pretty sure Moody is only signed for two more years, not three. FYI/BTW/ETC!

[Hibachi_0]

Read on Twitter

If instead of extending Trae we had found a way to S&T Wallace using Champagnie I would've been over the moon...

Whatever... after Lu Dort's team option opt-in, and OKC being in some salary cap crunch. What would we be able to get Sorber for? Champagnie (+some draft capital from OKC)? Only a handful of seconds would be enough?

[9 and 20]

AD trade return will be at a minimum 2 firsts and 3 2nds, if for nothing else than for appearances sake. Winger and Dawkins can't come out looking like patsies and losers after just handing Trae $200 mil. I don't think they can come out on the losing end, a handful of months after trading for him, in flipping him. Maybe Yaxel counts as one first when the trade actually goes down.