Who Starts Day One?

[tmorgan]

Was just thinking about talent + drafting team and wondering who has the inside track on first team all-rookie due to playing time and counting numbers. It may end up kind of obvious, actually, but I thought I’d go through it anyway.

1) Dybantsa — should start immediately, no one with his talent level in his way
2) Peterson — should start immediately, slight chance it takes a little bit, because they’ll need to bench Bailey as constructed now
3) Boozer — should start immediately, can’t imagine Aldama or Stewart preventing it.
4) Wilson —should start immediately, the Buzelis pairing at forward seems right.
5) Wagler — may start at SG immediately, not sure. Might need some time to physically prepare. Also depends on Garland’s toes.
6) Brown Jr. — may start? So many bodies in Brooklyn, who knows. Is it likely Demin and Brown Jr. at guard?
7) Acuff Jr. — should start immediately, that’s why they wanted him.
8) Flemings — won’t start, too many guys ahead of him (CJ, Dyson, NAW).
9) Johnson Jr. — might start immediately, but they might go with a vet like PJ to pair with Flagg for now.
10) Burries — unlikely to start. If they don’t trade Herro, starting Herro and Rollins probably.
11) Lendeborg — may start, Butler is out, but that’ll make him a SF for now. One to watch.
12) Mara — won’t start, might not even play at all. He’s a project and they have four other bigs.
13) Ament — won’t start, also a project. Still, he might get there this year with all the turnover on the roster.
14) Steinbach — likely won’t start initially, but there’s definitely a path if they deal Bridges.

Anyone else outside the lottery with a shot at a starting job?

[Catchall]

Darryn Peterson might earn a starting spot during fall camp. The Jazz don't really have a guard in front of him on the roster. Whether Keyonte or Darryn is considered a 1 or 2 might be academic. Jazz are pretty high on Ace Bailey as well. It'll be a question of whether Ace or Walker Kessler starts and the other comes in with the first substitution.

[BAMAFREAK]

Darryn Peterson might earn a starting spot during fall camp. The Jazz don't really have a guard in front of him on the roster. Whether Keyonte or Darryn is considered a 1 or 2 might be academic. Jazz are pretty high on Ace Bailey as well. It'll be a question of whether Ace or Walker Kessler starts and the other comes in with the first substitution.

JJJ cannot play the 5. He will be in foul trouble before the tip ball comes down AND you are going to get killed on the glass on both ends.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Was just thinking about talent + drafting team and wondering who has the inside track on first team all-rookie due to playing time and counting numbers. It may end up kind of obvious, actually, but I thought I’d go through it anyway.

1) Dybantsa — should start immediately, no one with his talent level in his way
2) Peterson — should start immediately, slight chance it takes a little bit, because they’ll need to bench Bailey as constructed now
3) Boozer — should start immediately, can’t imagine Aldama or Stewart preventing it.
4) Wilson —should start immediately, the Buzelis pairing at forward seems right.
5) Wagler — may start at SG immediately, not sure. Might need some time to physically prepare. Also depends on Garland’s toes.
6) Brown Jr. — may start? So many bodies in Brooklyn, who knows. Is it likely Demin and Brown Jr. at guard?
7) Acuff Jr. — should start immediately, that’s why they wanted him.
8) Flemings — won’t start, too many guys ahead of him (CJ, Dyson, NAW).
9) Johnson Jr. — might start immediately, but they might go with a vet like PJ to pair with Flagg for now.
10) Burries — unlikely to start. If they don’t trade Herro, starting Herro and Rollins probably.
11) Lendeborg — may start, Butler is out, but that’ll make him a SF for now. One to watch.
12) Mara — won’t start, might not even play at all. He’s a project and they have four other bigs.
13) Ament — won’t start, also a project. Still, he might get there this year with all the turnover on the roster.
14) Steinbach — likely won’t start initially, but there’s definitely a path if they deal Bridges.

Anyone else outside the lottery with a shot at a starting job?

I've learned that what SHOULD happen rarely happens. Everyone in the top 10 should absolutely be starting but I'm guessing they either won't or if they do they won't be getting 32 mpg. Who knows with the Hornets. If they move Bridges Steinbach very well might start. Heck, he might start regardless. The Bucks are rebuilding so both Burries and Ament, who are the most talented players, should start. But of the two I'd bet Ament is the one starting for some reason. If Brown doesn't start in BK it means Traore or Demin has taken a leap and deserve to start making the Brown selection really bad. But since he's the most talented and taken high he'll most likely start. That franchise needs a name for fans to rally around. Flemings should absolutely start but I agree, with CJ and how the team looked in the playoffs they're likely going to bring him along slowly which is a shame because he should start and CJ should be the one coming off the bench as a 6th man at this point.

[Catchall]

Darryn Peterson might earn a starting spot during fall camp. The Jazz don't really have a guard in front of him on the roster. Whether Keyonte or Darryn is considered a 1 or 2 might be academic. Jazz are pretty high on Ace Bailey as well. It'll be a question of whether Ace or Walker Kessler starts and the other comes in with the first substitution.

JJJ cannot play the 5. He will be in foul trouble before the tip ball comes down AND you are going to get killed on the glass on both ends.

Ace and Lauri are both plus rebounders and can make up for some of JJJ's shortcomings on the boards if the Jazz want to go 5-out.

[BigGargamel]

The top four should and probably will start from day one. You don't tank the way everyone tanked, and NOT start the guy you drafted high.

I don't see anybody getting in the way of Wagler. Kris Dunn? Come on now.

Acuff should be a guarantee to start right away. The Kings are old, expensive and terrible. He is really their only hope of a future. Plus the two really wanted each other.

I don't think Mikel Brown does right away, but if he shows anything at all he should be able to beat out Terence Mann pretty quickly.

I don't see anybody else starting right away.

[Caneman786]

First round picks only: All of these refer to the ideal roster on the team without injuries. At least some of these players in the lower levels will start multiple times throughout the season due to injuries to starters. On top of this, a lot of these players will see G League minutes at first, but most of them should get to the rotation by the end of the year without major setbacks such as injury (which multiple of these players, statistically speaking, are likely to have). Teams generally want to give their rookies playing time, at least here and there. Excluding Sorber and Essengue (both of whom had serious injuries that ended their seasons), every single first round pick played at least 30 games last season.

As for second round picks: I think Ryan Conwell (who was pick 37 this year) will crack the Miami Heat's rotation. That's all I have to say, though (and he seems like the surest bet of anyone in the second round to make an NBA team's rotation).

(7 players) I would be surprised if they do not start on day one (barring major roster changes):

1. WAS, AJ Dybantsa: whether or not Anthony Davis gets traded, Dybantsa is the homegrown franchise centerpiece
2. UTA, Darryn Peterson
3. MEM, Cameron Boozer
4. CHI, Caleb Wilson: while all of Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson face some competition, I expect their pedigree as being top four picks to take over here, whether or not they are significantly better than the current options (and they all should be better!).
6. BRK, Mikel Brown, Jr.: the sixth pick isn't as much pedigree as a top four pick but it should be enough for his spot as a starter in Brooklyn.
7. SAC, Darius Acuff, Jr.
11. GSW, Yaxel Lendeborg: with the current iteration of the Warriors, he has a clear path to starting (and has stated so himself in an interview). Being put at the small forward slot shouldn't be an issue, since he can play that and in fact did so in college. However, I do expect him to come off the bench if he somehow stays on the team after an Anthony Davis-LeBron James package. If he ends up going to Washington or another team in this package, it is around 50 / 50 depending on how good he is and how good the team's depth around him is.

(3 players) Could possibly earn the starting spot in training camp, I'm expecting them to start by the end of the year (assuming no major roster changes):

5. LAC, Keaton Wagler: more likely than not will start this year, it depends how he performs in training camp. Kawhi's future is in flux right now, which will have major ramifications for this. Bradley Beal has opted out. The main competition right now is Kris Dunn, and as was said above, being the fifth pick in a draft holds a lot of weight.
13. MIL, Nate Ament: it depends how he performs in training camp and throughout the season but the path is clearer for him than it is for other players. Kuzma; Dieng; Prince; and Jaquez, Jr. is not that stiff of competition. I think he's a full-time starter by the end of the year.
14. CHO, Hannes Steinbach: like Ament, I see him working his way into the starting lineup with the current opposition being Kalkbrenner and Diabate by the end of the season. Miles Bridges leaving makes this easier.

(3 players) Should have a spot in the rotation, and there's a path for them to start by the end of the year (assuming no major roster changes):

9. DAL, Morez Johnson, Jr.: he has to outplay either one of or both of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. It's definitely possible, and I think it's more likely than not by the end of the year he has started multiple games, but isn't the main option if the team is fully healthy. A lot also depends on Dereck Lively II, who still has no timetable to return from injury.
18. CHO, Christian Anderson, Jr.: The point guard spot is up for the taking! It's just up to if Anderson, Jr. can impress Coach Charles Lee and his staff enough. He already has the three-point volume in his game, but probably not the Ball-level passing.
21. MEM, Karim Lopez: Is he more valuable than Jaylen Wells? Wells started every one of the 69 games he played in last year.

(8 players) Should have a spot in the rotation, and there's a path for them to start, but I don't think it's likely they start this year (assuming no major roster changes):

8. ATL, Kingston Flemings: while he will definitely get minutes, becoming a starter is tall odds with a current guard rotation including Dyson Daniels, CJ McCollum, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Hawks were actually a playoffs team last season. If he somehow is starting over one of those guys by the end of the year (not due to an injury), then it probably means he is something special.
10. MIL, Brayden Burries: the guard rotation in Milwaukee right now includes Tyler Herro; Kevin Porter, Jr.; and Ryan Rollins. A lot depends on if Herro (a bona fide all-star) stays, and if he leaves, the path for him gets much clearer, and also more likely than not he is a full-time starter by the end of the year. I am putting him in the level below Burries due to Herro's prominence (meanwhile the Bucks' frontcourt doesn't have anyone of that stature).
15. CHI, Dailyn Swain: Right now, the main people stopping him from starting are Giddey, Buzelis, Essengue, and Caleb Wilson. There's a chance he can get the spot over one of these guys. It won't be easy.
16. OKC, Bennett Stirtz: He can be better than Jared McCain, who started some games: but this requires injury to both Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams. The other alternative is him starting over Dort, which I think is unlikely. It's more likely for Ajay Mitchell to start.
17. DET, Ebuka Okorie: Daniss Jenkins was starting, I believe without significant injuries happening. It wouldn't be too surprising to see him take Jenkins' spot, I think he can replicate what Jenkins does and it would not be surprising if it was better.
19. TOR, Allen Graves: Murray-Boyles was excellent and still didn't start in the playoffs. If Murray-Boyles couldn't get the starting spot, it shows that it won't be easy for someone like Graves to make it in.
24. LAL, Cameron Carr: Marcus Smart is gone, and he consistently started the entire year. It's not out of question that he can outplay Hachimura, and it seems likely he can contend with LaRavia for rotation minutes. The path is there. If LeBron leaves, the path gets a little clearer.
28. BRK, Joshua Jefferson: Randle and Porter, Jr. are locks to start in the frontcourt. It depends how good Jefferson is, and which direction Coach Fernandez wants to take his roster. It isn't out of question that they decide to run Randle at the Center position, and if Jefferson proves his worth, he could play the Power Forward position. Coach Fernandez is a creative coach. Jefferson also is quite a heavy person, measuring at 246 pounds last year. Even Jefferson could be a small-ball center (he measured at the same height as Randle). Things are quite speculative for a team like the Nets.

(3 players) Should have a spot in the rotation, it would be quite unexpected for them to ever start this year (assuming no major roster changes):

21. PHI, Labaron Philon, Jr.: He has to be better than either VJ Edgecombe or Tyrese Maxey (and probably Maxey). This won't be easy. Even if he is a little better than Edgecombe, VJ still might get to start due to fit. He could be a good sixth man.
22. ATL, Zuby Ejiofor: This is gonna be tough. The current starters in Atlanta are Johnson, McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, and Okongwu. He has to outplay one of these guys, probably Okongwu. Then there's guys like Risacher and Asa Newell waiting in the shadows. I think it's unlikely, but the path to be a sixth man (now that Kuminga has exited) is wide open.
29. SAC, Alex Karaban: Without trades or roster movement, it's hard to see him cracking the starting lineup. Being in the rotation seems like a sure thing, though.

(6 players) Not sure if they will have a spot in the rotation, it would be quite unexpected for them to ever start this year (assuming no major roster changes):

12. OKC, Aday Mara: this is all but certain after Hartenstein has been re-signed. He should at least be a situational player for Coach Daigneault, which is more than can be said for some other players (for example Nikola Topic has not really reached that level yet).
20. SAS, Jayden Quaintance: Day one for Quaintance seems like it'll be in October 2027. He should still be in the rotation then. Competition is stiff due to Wembanyama and a number of other players such as Champagnie that fit around him well.
25. DAL, Sergio De Larrea: Irving; Flagg; Washington, Jr.; and Lively II are starters. De Larrea has to outplay all of Middleton, Klay Thompson, John Poulakidas, Caleb Martin, Naji Marshall, and Max Christie to get the spot here. It's quite unlikely. If it happens, it means he's way outperforming his draft slot, and he was a mis-evaluation on the part of at least a dozen teams (or maybe that the stars aligned).
26. SAS, Tarris Reed, Jr.: Similar to what I said with Quaintance, Wembanyama and Kornet are both on the roster, although it is clearer what the roster will look like on Opening Night 2026 than what it will look like on Opening Night 2027 when Quaintance looks to play.
27. BOS, Chris Cenac, Jr.: Not sure if he gets rotation minutes. The Celtics are loaded. It is possible, though. Starting will be a tall order.
30. PHO, Koa Peat: I like this guy a lot. Not sure what it looks like in the NBA, but I think he can figure it out. He is a classic "winning player" who makes teams better, and I think it's more likely than not he is in the rotation, but it's tough to tell this far out. I'm excited to see him work in summer league.

[BigGargamel]

Was just thinking about talent + drafting team and wondering who has the inside track on first team all-rookie due to playing time and counting numbers. It may end up kind of obvious, actually, but I thought I’d go through it anyway.

1) Dybantsa — should start immediately, no one with his talent level in his way
2) Peterson — should start immediately, slight chance it takes a little bit, because they’ll need to bench Bailey as constructed now
3) Boozer — should start immediately, can’t imagine Aldama or Stewart preventing it.
4) Wilson —should start immediately, the Buzelis pairing at forward seems right.
5) Wagler — may start at SG immediately, not sure. Might need some time to physically prepare. Also depends on Garland’s toes.
6) Brown Jr. — may start? So many bodies in Brooklyn, who knows. Is it likely Demin and Brown Jr. at guard?
7) Acuff Jr. — should start immediately, that’s why they wanted him.
8) Flemings — won’t start, too many guys ahead of him (CJ, Dyson, NAW).
9) Johnson Jr. — might start immediately, but they might go with a vet like PJ to pair with Flagg for now.
10) Burries — unlikely to start. If they don’t trade Herro, starting Herro and Rollins probably.
11) Lendeborg — may start, Butler is out, but that’ll make him a SF for now. One to watch.
12) Mara — won’t start, might not even play at all. He’s a project and they have four other bigs.
13) Ament — won’t start, also a project. Still, he might get there this year with all the turnover on the roster.
14) Steinbach — likely won’t start initially, but there’s definitely a path if they deal Bridges.

Anyone else outside the lottery with a shot at a starting job?

I've learned that what SHOULD happen rarely happens. Everyone in the top 10 should absolutely be starting but I'm guessing they either won't or if they do they won't be getting 32 mpg. Who knows with the Hornets. If they move Bridges Steinbach very well might start. Heck, he might start regardless. The Bucks are rebuilding so both Burries and Ament, who are the most talented players, should start. But of the two I'd bet Ament is the one starting for some reason. If Brown doesn't start in BK it means Traore or Demin has taken a leap and deserve to start making the Brown selection really bad. But since he's the most talented and taken high he'll most likely start. That franchise needs a name for fans to rally around. Flemings should absolutely start but I agree, with CJ and how the team looked in the playoffs they're likely going to bring him along slowly which is a shame because he should start and CJ should be the one coming off the bench as a 6th man at this point.

The Hawks are a bit different. They are an easy playoff team with a deep roster who used someone else's pick.

But I mostly agree with you. If you're bad, and you draft a guy in the ten, you should believe in him and give him plenty of run right away. You drafted him for a reason.

[Felixians4]

The top four should and probably will start from day one. You don't tank the way everyone tanked, and NOT start the guy you drafted high.

Bulls actually not tanked as they should from start of the season

[SeattleJazzFan]

Darryn Peterson might earn a starting spot during fall camp. The Jazz don't really have a guard in front of him on the roster. Whether Keyonte or Darryn is considered a 1 or 2 might be academic. Jazz are pretty high on Ace Bailey as well. It'll be a question of whether Ace or Walker Kessler starts and the other comes in with the first substitution.

kessler being gone of course makes this academic. no question he would have started. would have been between ace and dp at the two - imo, it would have been ace initially, then it would be on dp to simply be better and beat him out. as it stands, both ace and dp start.

as far as jjj and rebounding, he'll play 4 or 5 minutes at the beginning of each half without an elite or very good rebounding big next to him - that's it. the rest of the game nurk or flip will play alongside him. they'll be fine.

[Caneman786]

as far as jjj and rebounding, he'll play 4 or 5 minutes at the beginning of each half without an elite or very good rebounding big next to him - that's it. the rest of the game nurk or flip will play alongside him. they'll be fine.

Why wouldn't Nurkic start?

[HadAnEffectHere]

as far as jjj and rebounding, he'll play 4 or 5 minutes at the beginning of each half without an elite or very good rebounding big next to him - that's it. the rest of the game nurk or flip will play alongside him. they'll be fine.

Why wouldn't Nurkic start?

Nurkic will play the majority of center minutes, but the Jazz will almost certainly start Keyonte-Peterson-Bailey-Lauri-JJJ to avoid controversy even if the lineup only plays like 6-10 MPG game. We'll probably play zone as well and experiment with random BS you can only do when you play 5 out.

[babyjax13]

as far as jjj and rebounding, he'll play 4 or 5 minutes at the beginning of each half without an elite or very good rebounding big next to him - that's it. the rest of the game nurk or flip will play alongside him. they'll be fine.

Why wouldn't Nurkic start?

Nurkic will play the majority of center minutes, but the Jazz will almost certainly start Keyonte-Peterson-Bailey-Lauri-JJJ to avoid controversy even if the lineup only plays like 6-10 MPG game. We'll probably play zone as well and experiment with random BS you can only do when you play 5 out.

Yah, I kind of suspect that is our starting lineup, too - unless you get someone to buy into winning 6th man of the year a la Manu Ginobili.

[gswhoops]

Assuming we don't sign LeBron, Yaxel has a better than 50/50 shot of being an opening night starter (especially if his 3pt shooting in the CA Classic holds up) since he'd only really have to beat out Gui Santos and whoever we can sign out of the FA bargain bin.

[tmorgan]

Assuming we don't sign LeBron, Yaxel has a better than 50/50 shot of being an opening night starter (especially if his 3pt shooting in the CA Classic holds up) since he'd only really have to beat out Gui Santos and whoever we can sign out of the FA bargain bin.

I think it’s already much better than 50/50 the way they’re using him in the summer leagues. The role he’s been given looks an awful lot like heir apparent to Draymond Green, even if he isn’t the same type of defender. The Warriors have already correctly realized that playmaking is one of Lendeborg’s best skills.

[Fifii]

I think Zuby could be a good rotation player. He can play on two positions PF and C. He is good on set screens and gets rebounds. His defensive is pretty well , but he must improve his shooting ability.

[Richard4444]

Start: AJ, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson, Acuff,

Potentially start/big rotation minutes: mikel, Burries, Yaxel

Rotation players: solid 10- 20 minutes path: Wagler, Flemings, Graves, Sérgio, Okorie, Phillon, Carr.

Some odd situations to crack:

Morez: fighting for minutes with Flagg, Santi, PJ, Gafford, Lively (when healthy) and Biberovic. I am not sure if he can get into the rotation barring trades and injuries.

Mara: he is a project. But OKC is thin on the PF/Center spots. Sorber is still injured and raw. Kenrich is not great. he can get a shot eventually.

Arment: project. However Bucks is in development mode and can give him plenty of minutes even if unfair. His competiton on the foward spot should be Kuzma and Dieng. JJJ should start along Ware and Turner.

Steinbach: Great SL. I believe he can crack the rotation. But he can face a logjam.. The Hornets has Diabate, Kalk as centers and Naz also can play Center minutes. Besides, they can use Salaun, Grant and Dorian as reserve PFs. They have to cut at least 3 players

Swain: very raw project. But he can have unfair minutes. He faces Okoro and Leonard Miller, not a tought competition.

Stirz: there is a logjam in the OKC backcourt. I dont expect many minutes. SGA, Wallace, Mccain, Ajay, Caruso and Topic.

Anderson Jr: his competition as a PG will be Coby and Mann. Assuming they are rebuilding, there is a path for minutes right now.

Karim: as Memphis rebuilds, he should get minutes, right? But he will be the 20th roster player after he gets a contract. They need to make cuts.

Zuby: great SL player. But also may have a hard path for minutes. They have plenty of bigs in the roster. Jalen Johnson, okongwu, Landale, Newell, Gueye and Veesaar. I dont know if he can play PF in the NBA. Otherwise he would have to face Landale for the reserve Center spot in a team that is trying to win.

Peat: good SL. Many fowards in the roster. Miles and Brooks are starting. Dunn, Peat, Oso and Fleming fighting for minutes.

Brazile: great Sl. But he is battling foward minutes with Gordon, Watson?, camJohnson, Diallo, Bagley and Holmes.

Meleek: contend for a reserve guard spot with Dennis, Sam, Tyson, Craig and Proctor. Tough job.