Poeltl isn't a bad contract

[Duffman100]

This thread should have been about Quickley.

[DanishLakerFan]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Thank you for bringing that up again

[Thaddy]

Would anyone take Poeltl into cap space for free? No.

Would anyone sign Poeltl to his current contract if he were a free agent? No.

So no, his contract is not “fair”. Players on fair contracts are tradable for value. Or at the very least dumpable for no cost.

And using other bad contracts as a comp makes your argument look even weaker. Jordan Poole doesn’t look like a “fair” contract because Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine got $45m+.

He is making starter level money according to the current CBA by percentage so he is being paid fairly.

A lot of the NBA is driven by narrative. Walker Kessler is on a larger contract and he has trade value which wouldn't require picks to dump. Neither are all stars or will ever be all stars. I'd even argue there's a chance Poeltl could be better over the next 3 years than Kessler.

I'd like to hear that argument

Kessler is younger but plays less and had significant injuries requiring surgical procedures.

Then there's the stats.

https://craftednba.com/players/walker-kessler

https://craftednba.com/players/jakob-poeltl

[ConSarnit]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

So let's compare that to 2016/17 when the cap was $94.1 mill.

Poeltl making 15.7-16.1% of the cap today is basically equivalent to making $14.8-15.2M in 2016.

Some centers from back then:

Jonas Valanciunas - $14.38M = 15.3% of cap

Tristan Thompson - $15.33M = 16.3%

Ian Mahinmi - $15.94M = 16.9%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Robin Lopez - $13.22M = 14.0%

Marcin Gortat - $12M = 12.7%

So Poeltl's expensive years are basically the modern equivalent of what JV/Tristan Thompson were making 10 years ago. And he's a much better player than they were when he got the extension. He was coming off 14.5/9.6/2.8 with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63% from the field.

That's starting C/high level role player money. It isn't star money.

His contract looks pretty fair when you normalize it against the cap. This year at 11.8% is actually good value.

Would anyone take Poeltl into cap space for free? No.

Would anyone sign Poeltl to his current contract if he were a free agent? No.

So no, his contract is not “fair”. Players on fair contracts are tradable for value. Or at the very least dumpable for no cost.

And using other bad contracts as a comp makes your argument look even weaker. Jordan Poole doesn’t look like a “fair” contract because Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine got $45m+.

He is making starter level money according to the current CBA by percentage so he is being paid fairly.

A lot of the NBA is driven by narrative. Walker Kessler is on a larger contract and he has trade value which wouldn't require picks to dump. Neither are all stars or will ever be all stars. I'd even argue there's a chance Poeltl could be better over the next 3 years than Kessler.

No he isn’t. I don’t know how you don’t understand market dynamics.

If Poeltl were being paid fairly other teams would want to trade for him or at least would take him for free.

NBA teams love fairly paid players. OKC just dumped 3 “fairly” paid players in Dort, Wiggins and Joe. Each guy got back at least 2 2nds.

There is no world in which the Raptors could trade Poeltl and get back a 2nd. They probably couldn’t even send him out for 5 2nds.

When Poeltl’s contract goes up he’ll basically be paid as a top 13 C. There is no world where he is a top 13 C. Somehow you don’t understand this part.

[Godaddycurse]

When Poeltl’s contract goes up he’ll basically be paid as a top 13 C. There is no world where he is a top 13 C. Somehow you don’t understand this part.

He is 15th next year after duren gets a new contract
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/player/_/year/2026/position/c/sort/cap_total

If healthy he is paid to be an average starting C, which he was prior to this year

[ReggiesKnicks]

This thread should have been about Quickley.

It doesn't matter who it is about, both contracts and extensions were signed without room for overachieving.

The combination of money and length was the problem. Franchises shouldn't commit to 4-5 years of players of Quickley/Poeltl level.

[pipfan]

I can't agree-definitely a bad contract and I never understood why the Raps did it??

The easy question is-could Toronto trade him into cap space for a 2nd? If yes, then he's a neutral contract. You could even do the same test, but for an expiring.

Poeltl would cost AT LEAST 1 first to move, and Tor would have to bring back bad $

Solid player, when healthy, but clearly a bad contract

I think that argument for defining a positive/negative contract is kinda wonky because cap space typically exists for specific situations.
Like who is going to have that cap space and have a legitimate need for a veteran center who does what JP does?

JP's contract is for a starter or time/share center. That's what that money is for. If he is not well and can't be that, then he would be grossly overpaid.

I can't think of any team that would be eager to trade for JP. Not even sure that Bucks would take him with picks attached for Turner.

My Bulls just did exactly that by absorbing Claxton, without adding assets. That would make Claxton a neutral-value contract. Of course, each team has its priorities, but the market is the market. No team would absorb Poeltl for free, and there aren't enough seconds available to get any team to do it. It would take a very attractive first to bring him in, or a bad contract going out.

I think Poeltl, when healthy, is a solid player. I just don't understand why Toronto saw the need to extend him so early? What he threatening to sit out or something (being sarcastic here-of course, I know he wasn't). By extending him early, Toronto overpaid for no reason, making him a bad contract.

Of course, he could come back and have a great year (for him)-then his 2 addition years would be equal to Turner's deal (I have Turner as a negative or neutral deal).

Cap space is gold, and the lux tax/aprons are making teams much wiser in their spending. Unnecessary overpays are more harmful than ever. In this environment, Poeltl is a bad contract, no doubt about it.

[Godaddycurse]

This thread should have been about Quickley.

It doesn't matter who it is about, both contracts and extensions were signed without room for overachieving.

The combination of money and length was the problem. Franchises shouldn't commit to 4-5 years of players of Quickley/Poeltl level.

I think the team went to the opposite extreme of prior contract structures which were shorter and/or had PO, which promoted players to play more selfishly (according to masai) to get their bag. A long term contract provides security for player to play with a lower usage/within the team better, but it carries risks on the other side of the spectrum.. Instead of players bolting you end up with albatrosses on your capsheet if their health suffers.

[Godaddycurse]

I think Poeltl, when healthy, is a solid player. I just don't understand why Toronto saw the need to extend him so early? What he threatening to sit out or something (being sarcastic here-of course, I know he wasn't). By extending him early, Toronto overpaid for no reason, making him a bad contract.

The rationale with the extension was to get him to accept his PO for 26-27 so we can still dodge the tax (pre kawhi trade) this year. If we didnt extend him there was a real risk of him declining the PO and us being forced to pay more in 26-27. Hypothetically if he had a healthy season he would've made more in this FA environment where C's get (over)paid.

[OGSactownballer]

In the end it comes down to health.

As a seven footer with a back problem at thirty? That’s a dead money horrid contract that eats a BIG chunk of your cap. And realistically, that’s how he must be assessed because that’s where he is right now. A guy who
May or may not play - set aside potential because of proven talent - because you just don’t know if he can.

So if my team (SAC) is trading for him - because realistically the ONLY interested teams would have to be looking at the expiration as cap availability in a future year - then it’s as he currently is.

So that becomes TOR taking on Sabonis (because they are filling the C spot) and sending back either two picks unprotected with the balance being expiring money after THIS YEAR, OR talent and a pick (unprotected).

With the new anti tanking draft rules, there is just no incentive to completely bomb out during a rebuild. You want to maintain enough roster talent to stay out of the relegation zone. So you cannot just say you are going to take on a $28 million slot that is essentially dead money that doesn’t improve your cap timeline.

Now if he shows out in the first half of the season as healthy? That’s an entirely different scenario. And also not becomes likely that TOR doesn’t move him because he actually improves their team.

[Duffman100]

This thread should have been about Quickley.

It doesn't matter who it is about, both contracts and extensions were signed without room for overachieving.

The combination of money and length was the problem. Franchises shouldn't commit to 4-5 years of players of Quickley/Poeltl level.

Disagree on Quickley. He's a fine player whose values matches the contract. And since it's flat, it improves every year.

Not every contract has to be or is going to have "room for overachievement" for it to be a reasonable contract for the return.

[ReggiesKnicks]

This thread should have been about Quickley.

It doesn't matter who it is about, both contracts and extensions were signed without room for overachieving.

The combination of money and length was the problem. Franchises shouldn't commit to 4-5 years of players of Quickley/Poeltl level.

Disagree on Quickley. He's a fine player whose values matches the contract. And since it's flat, it improves every year.

Not every contract has to be or is going to have "room for overachievement" for it to be a reasonable contract for the return.

Quickley and Poeltl are both fine players. Typically, smart teams don't commit the combination of Money x Length to fine players, they do it for good players.

[Prospect Dong]

I think jv is an interesting comp actually. He was a pretty old school starting quality 5, and was traded twice for (small) value on that deal. But: younger, much, much healthier and pre apron, which has increased the value of a given cap %.

[Godaddycurse]

So that becomes TOR taking on Sabonis (because they are filling the C spot) and sending back either two picks unprotected with the balance being expiring money after THIS YEAR, OR talent and a pick (unprotected).

Sabonis being an (almost) seven footer with knee meniscus and back problem at 30 isnt great either. Kinda silly to call Poeltl a bad contract while ignoring sabonis' health issues this past year

[wegotthabeet]

The Raps almost always overpay their players, unless said player is a max level guy.

[Laimbeer]

It's an uncomfortable but not awful contract if he were healthy. It's the injuries that make it a real concern.

[Billl]

In a world where the second apron exists, it’s a really bad contract. You just can’t afford to commit big dollars to guys who might not play and , frankly, aren’t needle movers when they do. Comparing him to contracts of the past is pointless. The penalties for overpaying are 10x what they used to be.

[brackdan70]

Poeltl is somewhere around 70th most expensive contract and he is not a top 100 player….so I mean it’s not a good contract.

[Godaddycurse]

Poeltl is somewhere around 70th most expensive contract and he is not a top 100 player….so I mean it’s not a good contract.

At the start of 25-26 season he was on top 100 list for espn and bleachers report. Its common for salary to out pace player ranking for non max players due to rookie scale contracts. More accurate picture is comparing to other Centers' non rookie scale contract and his salary is in line with his peers if healthy, as suggested by the top 100 list at start of last year

[brackdan70]

Poeltl is somewhere around 70th most expensive contract and he is not a top 100 player….so I mean it’s not a good contract.

At the start of 25-26 season he was on top 100 list for espn and bleachers report. Its common for salary to out pace player ranking for non max players due to rookie scale contracts. More accurate picture is comparing to other Centers' non rookie scale contract and his salary is in line with his peers if healthy, as suggested by the top 100 list at start of last year

If he is Healthy….thats the catch and he hasn’t been for a while. It doesn’t seem to me that he will get back to the player he was a couple years ago. Thats a lot of money for a part time center.