The Amazingly Suck Winger/Dawkins thread

[keynote]

Compare the Deni trade to the Spurs trades of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, two young vets at the time whose careers took different trajectories post trade.

They didn't get much in return for White (the assets ended up turning into Olynyk and a 2028 pick swap, I believe). White has turned into a very good starter on a championship team who occasionally attracts all-star buzz (mostly from Boston fans, but still). I'd say the Spurs definitively "lost" that trade.

Murray was the more highly touted prospect of the two at the time, the higher trade value reflected that. That trade's haul turned into Carter Bryant, a pick swap that allowed them to move up 9 spots in 2026, and a 2027 first. None of the players they've added so far are likely to be as good as Murray was at his best. But, unlike White, Murray has struggled with serious injuries which have stalled his career. This deal might be viewed as a wash at worst.

Either way, nobody actually evaluates those trades in isolation. They view them in the context of an incredibly successful and lucky three-year tank that has set up SAS to be a perennial contender. Every Spur fan would do both trades over without even a second thought.

[DCZards]

Great analysis, Nate. I've always thought it a little unfair and inaccurate to suggest that trading Deni was the only way to rebuild the Zards.

I don’t think anyone ever said only way.

The argument was it was the safest way to ensure we didn’t lose a draft pick in years of back to back hypertalents.

You are absolutely right, no one said "only way." I should have said safest or easiest way.

I was alright with the Deni trade to Portland because it enabled the Zards to draft Carrington who I was high on. I was easily Bub's biggest fan on this board. But given that Deni has developed into a top 20 or so NBA player and Bub has not been quite as good as I had hoped (at least to this point), I'd be lying to say that I now don't think the Deni trade was a mistake.

None of us know for sure how the rebuild would have gone if Deni were not traded...but we do know for sure that our Deni has turned into a helluva player.

[doclinkin]

You are absolutely right, no one said "only way." I should have said safest or easiest way.

I was alright with the Deni trade to Portland because it enabled the Zards to draft Carrington who I was high on. I was easily Bub's biggest fan on this board. But given that Deni has developed into a top 20 or so NBA player and Bub has not been quite as good as I had hoped (at least to this point), I'd be lying to say that I now don't think the Deni trade was a mistake.

None of us know for sure how the rebuild would have gone if Deni were not traded...but we do know for sure that our Deni has turned into a helluva player.

None of us know how any of it will turn out. But I think the front office guessed better than any of the posters on this board. Which is rare.

Usually, if you crowdsource the intel to this bunch of basketball obsessives, in the aggregate we manage to outsmart most of the better execs in the league. Each year in terms of draft picks or strategy, somebody on here has ideas or predictions that end up better than the actual paid front offices. A few consistently do.

In this case nobody liked the Deni trade initially. You were the most luke warm. As opposed to heated. Raging.

Ultimately the sense of it became clear. That was in doubt up to and until this years lotto. But they’ve had a pretty good crystal ball it turns out. Predicting who was going to develop, out of top picks and especially later players.

Even on Bub, I think we’ll see eventually. Of the guys we have picked, he was the youngest for his draft class. We can talk about how well Deni developed, but still as a rookie he was 6 months older than rookie Bub. Yet if you look at their first 2 years in the league Bub has the better stats.

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/FQsPx

This despite despite being thrown to the wolves against front line defenses and playing every single game of his career so far. Not wearing down. Never a game off, even with the death of his father.

Point being not that Bub is sure to be better than Deni eventually. Or have that breakout surge. Just that the team is set up to foster player development in ways that we wish Deni could have had earlier in his career. And that given the front offices scouting skill, they’ve clearly had a good eye for picking the sort of players who could take advantage of it.

I’m excited for this next development phase of the rebuild. Learning how to win. Phase one was tear down. They definitely did that. Phase two was asset accumulation. Check. Phase three is growth. Improvements. Earning playtime through accomplishment. No free minutes.

That part looks like it’s going to be fun. I know they’re restless from playing against each other all the time. Seeing them do it in the offseason, and play well, against Chet etc gives you a glimpse of how good they may possibly be. And at that point I expect this thread to be in hibernation for a while.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Compare the Deni trade to the Spurs trades of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, two young vets at the time whose careers took different trajectories post trade.

They didn't get much in return for White (the assets ended up turning into Olynyk and a 2028 pick swap, I believe). White has turned into a very good starter on a championship team who occasionally attracts all-star buzz (mostly from Boston fans, but still). I'd say the Spurs definitively "lost" that trade.

Murray was the more highly touted prospect of the two at the time, the higher trade value reflected that. That trade's haul turned into Carter Bryant, a pick swap that allowed them to move up 9 spots in 2026, and a 2027 first. None of the players they've added so far are likely to be as good as Murray was at his best. But, unlike White, Murray has struggled with serious injuries which have stalled his career. This deal might be viewed as a wash at worst.

Either way, nobody actually evaluates those trades in isolation. They view them in the context of an incredibly successful and lucky three-year tank that has set up SAS to be a perennial contender. Every Spur fan would do both trades over without even a second thought.

This comparison stalls out at a rapid pace because the Wizards got peanuts for Deni. Literal peanuts. I kid you not, there were some people borderline suggesting Brogdon was the best piece of the trade. The guy retired the next season. Then you have Bub, who just frankly doesn't have a ton of upside, and an esoteric 2nd best first in the future. Oh yeah, two 2nd round picks, let us praise.

Dawkins saw a guy he liked in Bub and gambled the kids tuition to make it happen, and it is has been an unequivocal miss. The amount of rope the front office is given for absolutely bungling a trade of their far and away best asset is incredible. But yeah, we'll hear these insincere arguments about how it was really turning Deni into AJ, Davis, Young, Johnson, and any other person who came after Deni. It's really become a joke, to the point that Deni is lumped in with Beal and Kuzma to try to prove a terrible argument for why the trade was good. Memphis got Boozer and won 13 more games than the Wizards, stop acting like pure tanking is the only way to get better, as if marginal percentages of "improving your odds" is worth a player like Deni.

Deni would be the best player on this roster, I have absolutely no qualms about saying that. We aren't talking prime Davis either, we are talking about the present and he would dust up everyone in this roster in terms of what it means to winning.

So many on this board so desperately want a hero that their willing to look past flagrantly bad judgement calls. And that's fine, but I'm not. Also the Deni trade isn't the only piss poor thing the front office has done. Giving the Cs a chip by caving and gift wrapping them Porzingis, handing Young a bloated contract, drafting Carrington, not trading Kuzma when his value was at it's highest, the litany of lateral moves, trading for Poole, etc. The best move this front office has actually worked to create is drafting George, I'll tip my hat to that, because I like him as a player despite concerns that he can stay healthy, but I like him. Then you look at what they project to be as they stop tanking, and it's at best only marginally better from where they began, with nothing in the way of a Wemby or Flagg like centerpiece. Unimpressed, stamp it, if I'm wrong I'll eat crow, but you guys acting like this front office are some savants is a joke.

[doclinkin]

This comparison stalls out at a rapid pace because the Wizards got peanuts for Deni.

… Then you have Bub, who just frankly doesn't have a ton of upside, and an esoteric 2nd best first in the future. Oh yeah, two 2nd round picks, let us praise.

.. But yeah, we'll hear these insincere arguments about how it was really turning Deni into AJ, Davis, Young, Johnson, and any other person who came after Deni. It's really become a joke, to the point that Deni is lumped in with Beal and Kuzma…

if I'm wrong I'll eat crow, but you guys acting like this front office are some savants is a joke.

Except it’s factually true that what they did with the assets was turn Deni+Kuzma into AD + Bub + a 2029 first.

I’ve broken it down a few places but the 2nds we got from that trade were upcycled with Jared Butler into the late first that got shipped for AD.

Along with Middleton who came in the Kuzma trade. Plus the top 20 protected W’s pick we got swapping Beal for CP3 for Poole.

It’s luck but that ‘esoteric’ ‘29 1RP now has flattened odds and is likely to be far more valuable than we all thought when they traded for it . (2nd best of Boston Portland or Bucks. Where the cheapskate Blazers and hard luck Bucks are a fair bet to be rebuilding then).

You can fuss about your perception of the value of those assets. Speculate they could have gotten them elsewhere or declare them valueless. But that is what precisely they’ve done with them. That is the value they made with those assets. Not Amazingly sucky. But good GM work.

As for the rest. There’s no doubt that playing heavy minutes for Kuzma, as opposed to any minutes of Deni, earned us a high draft position.

You can cherry pick teams that jumped up. Philly or Memphis. But we are not those teams. We only fell or maintained our draft slot. The odds are the odds. We maximized those odds by committing to the math. Yes the odds are that somebody anybody will jump up. But you can’t bank on being that somebody. The team stacked every percentage in their favor and it finally worked in the long run.

That too is factual. We tanked. We did not lose our pick to New York. We earned the draft slots that landed us Tre Johnson and AJ. That was the strategy. Clearly articulated and executed.

Now tactically they also made nifty moves in the moment. Daniel Gafford was a team favorite. But I’d rather have Kyshawn George than him.

We got the Grizzlies first rounder for Marvin Bagley + devouring Marcus Smart into our cap. That first was then traded down to pick up Riley and Watkins.

I get that you spent your whole season TrailGlazing on Deni, so you missed the swift development of rookie Riley and the solid defense of Watkins. But those two will be a side dish on your plate of crow.

Funny side note that they resigned Bagley then shipped him out again in the AD trade. Even funnier that we essentially got Bagley from the Porzingis trade (via Gallinari and Muscala). A good sign that vets like Bags and Middleton want to re sign with the team after they leave. Bodes well for our rep around the league.

Maybe we ship Khris for value again too

Ultimately what they do with AD and of course that ‘29 pick will put the finishing touches on the Deni trade. But I am more and more confident that the Wizards will get better value overall out of it than your Glazers will get from a few years of Deni.

At this point I’m expecting him to skip town when he hits free agency. While the Wizards seem to be building something sustainable, and are clearly willing to pay to keep the guys that they like. Vets notice that. The reputation is changing. Some people are just slow to notice it and will need to have their noses rubbed in it before they recognize their own shame. Thats okay, I'm here for that.

[payitforward]

...We can talk about how well Deni developed, but still as a rookie he was 6 months older than rookie Bub. Yet if you look at their first 2 years in the league Bub has the better stats.

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/FQsPx

Per 36 minutes I'd say they were about dead even -- leaving out rebounds & assists, where you really cannot compare a forward & a guard.

...despite being thrown to the wolves against front line defenses and playing every single game of his career so far. Not wearing down. Never a game off....

Point being not that Bub is sure to be better than Deni eventually. Or have that breakout surge....

Right. The point is to silence the ridiculously early negative judgments of Bub Carrington.

...I’m einxcited for this next development phase of the rebuild. Learning how to win. Phase one was tear down. They definitely did that. Phase two was asset accumulation. Check. Phase three is growth....

Right, again. &, for that matter, I'm sure this phase will bring with it growing pains. All the same, wow, so far so good. 3 years & a couple of months isn't long for the utter & complete remaking of this franchise.

[doclinkin]

Right. The point is to silence the ridiculously early negative judgments of Bub Carrington.

And by ‘ridiculously early’ it’s to remind people that the super young draft picks like Bub often develop a year later into their NBA career than their older draft year counterparts. Bub was a teenager his entire rookie season. Deni was the youngest player on the team even two drafts later.

But the upside of these prodigies is often higher when they do break out. If they’re fostered and taught. If Deni was given the opportunities that Bub has had he might have blown up far earlier.

Picking young was an intentional strategy though. When they stated they traded Deni to ‘reset the roster’ and get everyone on the same growth curve age-wise it was largely in order to tank, true, but also to grow their own players together in a system designed to maximize their upside. Build them from the ground up. Chemistry from common experience.

Bilal was a super young talent. Tre reclassed to jump to the league early. So did Riley. Sarr too is young for his draft year despite being a pro since 15.

The team is building a basketball academy, basically. Where young players get mentored by solid solid vets, and are given opportunities for growth in 10-game chunks. Plus offseason intensives.

It’s a smart system.

Deni never had that, so understandably he sulked at times and took himself out of the game with his own frustrations. With the expectations put on him. With inconsistent minutes, changing rules and roster imbalances.

Frankly the player on the team who is youngest for his draft class and has suffered the most from immaturity is DeAndre Ayton. His career has floated on raw talent with zero fundamentals. I’m looking forward to see what Steve Clifford and Ewing can do with him. He reminds me of Al Jefferson. Volatile and talented offensive player who became a solid defensive force under Clifford. (Ish. At times. Anyway he rebounded. lol).

I like the Wiz team concept that they give chances even for vets to improve in those 10 game check ins. Worked for Bags. Rehabbed Poole. Rejuvenated CJ’s game. Never know if that can work for Ayton.

Or Trae.

Anyway. Long way around to a point: that you’re looking for steady improvement at this point. Not sudden success. We are in the growth phase not trying to sell the future for immediate wins. Other than vets AD and Khris every player is still young. Room to grow.

Trae and Ayton are in the NBA prime age 27-29 where you normally could expect the best years of their careers. Imagine that. Like what if Trae Young’s career years come right now. Not possible? Because I look at those Atlanta teams and say man for man we match up with equivalent talent. Or better.

With better players around him, could Young top his career bests? Why not. Could Ayton also renew his career?

Phase 3 is growth. Push for post season play. Sure. But first see who can play when we are trying to win. Who contributes. What line ups work. What chemistry develops. Whose play demands minutes. And what young players show they are ready to make a jump, like Kyshawn did last year.

You can yearn all you want for Deni. But me personally I’d take Kyshawn’s upside over Deni right now. He’s ahead of what Avdija showed at the same age. In part I think because of the basketball gladiator school that this team has created.

Looking forward to see who else makes a jump in the next few years.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

...the basketball gladiator school that this team has created.

I tip my hat to your creative writing abilities.

[Kanyewest]

This guy hasn't given up on Bub. https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2026/03/09/could-wizards-bub-carrington-hold-a-similar-fate-to-deni-avdija/

[doclinkin]

...the basketball gladiator school that this team has created.

I tip my hat to your creative writing abilities.

Show me what other team is traveling up to 15 deep to train together. Summer league. PLYRS UNTD. Guard whisperer runs.

Where 15 of 17 guys were back in the gym mid May.

Credit the organization for making it a spot where players want to show up with each other. Or drafting that type of player. But I’ve seen enough podcasts where players on other teams and HOF pros show respect for how Wiz have been rolling deep with each other this summer. Whatever the pundits and analysts say, players keep saying the Wiz are going to be a problem in the East. They like what they see.

[closg00]

This guy hasn't given up on Bub. https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2026/03/09/could-wizards-bub-carrington-hold-a-similar-fate-to-deni-avdija/

Bub will have to demonstrate a pretty big departure from his current game in order to make it even more difficult to make keep/trade/pay decisions about our young players. Currently, I would place Bub near the bottom of this young group.

[doclinkin]

...the basketball gladiator school that this team has created.

I tip my hat to your creative writing abilities.

But if you like that sort of thing feel free to contribute your own words here.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Great analysis, Nate. I've always thought it a little unfair and inaccurate to suggest that trading Deni was the only way to rebuild the Zards.

What remains to be seen is if, and how well, Bub develops and what the Zards FO does with the 2029 FRP they got from Port in the Deni trade.

For time being though, I'm very happy with the potential of the team we've ended up with...and I'm looking forward to this fall and the future.

Other teams, including Detroit, Charlotte, OKC, and Houston have rebuilt nicely.

Houston went 17-55, 20-62, 22-60 under Stephen Silas before going 41-41, 52-30. and 52-30 under Ime Udoka.
OKC has gone 22-50, 24-58, 40-42, 57-25, 68-14, 65-17 under Mark Daigneault

This is time-consuming ... My point: It usually takes about 3 seasons for a complete turnaround.

Detroit went from worst to first.
Cleveland went from 22 to 44 wins in one season. Two seasons later, they won 64. However, the Cavaliers might have peaked.

What will the Wizards do. They will certainly win far more than 18 games.

[keynote]

Compare the Deni trade to the Spurs trades of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, two young vets at the time whose careers took different trajectories post trade.

They didn't get much in return for White (the assets ended up turning into Olynyk and a 2028 pick swap, I believe). White has turned into a very good starter on a championship team who occasionally attracts all-star buzz (mostly from Boston fans, but still). I'd say the Spurs definitively "lost" that trade.

Murray was the more highly touted prospect of the two at the time, the higher trade value reflected that. That trade's haul turned into Carter Bryant, a pick swap that allowed them to move up 9 spots in 2026, and a 2027 first. None of the players they've added so far are likely to be as good as Murray was at his best. But, unlike White, Murray has struggled with serious injuries which have stalled his career. This deal might be viewed as a wash at worst.

Either way, nobody actually evaluates those trades in isolation. They view them in the context of an incredibly successful and lucky three-year tank that has set up SAS to be a perennial contender. Every Spur fan would do both trades over without even a second thought.

This comparison stalls out at a rapid pace because the Wizards got peanuts for Deni. Literal peanuts. I kid you not, there were some people borderline suggesting Brogdon was the best piece of the trade. The guy retired the next season. Then you have Bub, who just frankly doesn't have a ton of upside, and an esoteric 2nd best first in the future. Oh yeah, two 2nd round picks, let us praise.

My point in citing the Spurs' trades was not to directly compare the value SA got for Murray / White to what we netted for Deni. Measured in a vacuum, both San Antonio and DC "lost" in their respective trades.

But, in the context of an overall tank, San Antonio's trades were more than justified because they helped positioned them to acquire Castle, Wemby, and Harper. Their GM was shown on Hard Knocks talking about how they saw Wemby at 16 and immediately began planning to tank. To me, it makes more sense to evaluate the Deni trade in the context of our overall tank as well, as opposed to solely focusing on whether Bub + a future first is worth more than Deni or not.

With that said, our situation is certainly less clear cut: unlike Murray or White, Deni has broken out to become a legit all-star. And, of course, DC wasn't as fortunate as SA to win a generational lottery and immediately follow it up with getting #2 in a very strong draft. Still, the overall contexts feel similar.

[JWizmentality]

OK boys, sign Anthony Davis to a cheap extension, and get those cap circum...I mean totally above board sponsorships rolling.

All jokes aside, I hope they're already working on it. Open up that check book Eastern Motors.

I retract my previous statement.

[GoneShammGone]

What do you all make of the fact that Winger escaped punishment for the Leonard scandal? Obviously, Silver came down hard on just about everybody still associated with the Clippers, especially Ballmer and Frank. Gemini had this to say when asked whether Winger was mentioned in the final report:

While the heavy penalties targeted current front-office executives, the timeline confirms the illicit behavior escalated around the spring of 2020 through the signing of Leonard's contract extension in August 2021—a window where Michael Winger was serving as the team's General Manager. The league's final report explicitly detailed how team personnel were told they were "collective workers" to help Leonard achieve his off-court financial goals. Despite the deep institutional involvement, Winger himself was not among the executives suspended or fined by the league.

Anybody dug into the report? Still wondering whether Winger was cooperating and managed to avoid suspension by giving info.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

What do you all make of the fact that Winger escaped punishment for the Leonard scandal? Obviously, Silver came down hard on just about everybody still associated with the Clippers, especially Ballmer and Frank. Gemini had this to say when asked whether Winger was mentioned in the final report:

While the heavy penalties targeted current front-office executives, the timeline confirms the illicit behavior escalated around the spring of 2020 through the signing of Leonard's contract extension in August 2021—a window where Michael Winger was serving as the team's General Manager. The league's final report explicitly detailed how team personnel were told they were "collective workers" to help Leonard achieve his off-court financial goals. Despite the deep institutional involvement, Winger himself was not among the executives suspended or fined by the league.

Anybody dug into the report? Still wondering whether Winger was cooperating and managed to avoid suspension by giving info.

Slip out the back door GSG, pitchforks coming your way!

[bsilver]

What do you all make of the fact that Winger escaped punishment for the Leonard scandal? Obviously, Silver came down hard on just about everybody still associated with the Clippers, especially Ballmer and Frank. Gemini had this to say when asked whether Winger was mentioned in the final report:

While the heavy penalties targeted current front-office executives, the timeline confirms the illicit behavior escalated around the spring of 2020 through the signing of Leonard's contract extension in August 2021—a window where Michael Winger was serving as the team's General Manager. The league's final report explicitly detailed how team personnel were told they were "collective workers" to help Leonard achieve his off-court financial goals. Despite the deep institutional involvement, Winger himself was not among the executives suspended or fined by the league.

Anybody dug into the report? Still wondering whether Winger was cooperating and managed to avoid suspension by giving info.

There is no mention at all of Winger in the report. The title of the report includes the word “Summary”, so there’s a lot of details we may never know. It mentions 60 people were interviewed. Makes sense Winger would be one of them.
If Winger did anything wrong, it would be having knowledge of the Frank/Zucker/Ballmer activities, and not doing anything about it, but we don’t know what he knew, and when. And can you imagine telling your bosses to stop what they’re doing, when they already know they were breaking the rules?

[GoneShammGone]

What do you all make of the fact that Winger escaped punishment for the Leonard scandal? Obviously, Silver came down hard on just about everybody still associated with the Clippers, especially Ballmer and Frank. Gemini had this to say when asked whether Winger was mentioned in the final report:

While the heavy penalties targeted current front-office executives, the timeline confirms the illicit behavior escalated around the spring of 2020 through the signing of Leonard's contract extension in August 2021—a window where Michael Winger was serving as the team's General Manager. The league's final report explicitly detailed how team personnel were told they were "collective workers" to help Leonard achieve his off-court financial goals. Despite the deep institutional involvement, Winger himself was not among the executives suspended or fined by the league.

Anybody dug into the report? Still wondering whether Winger was cooperating and managed to avoid suspension by giving info.

There is no mention at all of Winger in the report. The title of the report includes the word “Summary”, so there’s a lot of details we may never know. It mentions 60 people were interviewed. Makes sense Winger would be one of them.
If Winger did anything wrong, it would be having knowledge of the Frank/Zucker/Ballmer activities, and not doing anything about it, but we don’t know what he knew, and when. And can you imagine telling your bosses to stop what they’re doing, when they already know they were breaking the rules?

Yeah, if he did find out, he would have been in a bad spot. Still, General Manager is the kind of position where I would expect some accountability. But as you say, we'll probably never know. In the end, its good news for us. Shadow of investigation seems to be lifted once and for all.

[anselmheifer76]

That leaves the Deni trade -- when you come down to it, that's the only transaction any of the critics relies on. Of course, if we hadn't traded Deni we wouldn't have Bub.

More importantly, we also wouldn't have Alex Sarr. Maybe we'd have gotten Rob Dillingham? Or Nikola Topic? Tijduane Salaun? Cody Williams?

Oh, & driven by Deni, our '24-25 record wouldn't have gotten us Tre Johnson in the next draft either: would you rather have Noa Essengue or Carter Bryant instead?

Nor, of course, could we have drafted AJ Dybantsa this year.

Your timing is wrong.

We landed the #2 pick in the 2024 draft while Deni was still on the roster. We traded Deni for the #14 pick AFTER the lottery drawing took place. So we absolutely would have had Deni, Bilal, Sarr and Kyshawn if we never traded Deni.

The argument for trading Deni was to tank in 2024-25 season so we don't lose our 2025 pick. By keeping Deni, it was unlikely that we would have finished with the second-to-last record in the league in 2024-25. However, as it turned out, if we finished with a BETTER record, we very well might have ended up with a better pick. The way that lottery went, 1-2 more wins would have landed us the #4 pick. 3-5 more wins would have landed us with the #7 pick, and 6-8 more wins would have landed us the #3 pick. 9-12 more wins and it would have been the #8 pick. Basically, in a worst-case scenario, we would have ended up with Colin Murray-Boyles or Cedric Coward instead of Tre Johnson. I'm not sure if that's even a downgrade. And as I've calculated in the past, by applying Deni's +7 on/off differential to his minutes, and applying the Pythagorean Formula, he likely would have delivered 6-8 more wins, which puts us in the #3 pick range.

If we had landed Edgecomb in that draft, my guess is that we would have abandoned the tanking strategy last year and just rolled with Edgecombe, Deni, Kyshawn, Sarr, Riley, and Champagnie. Whether that's a championship roster depends on how well all those guys develop. We would have had the cap room to make the same Tre Young and AD acquisitions. And we still could have traded Deni then, maybe for Harper.

Imagine that lineup in 2025/26!
PG Harper/CJ
SG Edgecombe/Riley
SF Bilal/Riley
PF Kyshawn/JC
C Sarr
and then we add AD midseason and replace CJ with a younger guard like Gillespie in the offseason.

If we did not land Edgecomb, we probably would have tried to tank in 2025-26. And that would have been the time to trade Deni. He would definitely have been worth more than 2 mediocre FRP's. Tanking would have been easy without Deni, it's basically the same team we tanked with in our timeline, but no Bub and somebody like CMB or Coward in place of Tre Johnson. We still would have landed AJ plus have a better stockpile of picks from the Deni trade.

You’re one of my favorite posters and I almost never disagree with your posts, because they are usually so rational.

And this post also has good points about the timing of the Deni trade.

But to presume that if we’d won more games, that we would have had a higher draft pick, based on how that particular lotto played out, is illogical. And taking that and then talking about how we’d look with Edgecomb is also a leap. And to say that we, “still would have landed AJ” is also a major assumption.

Your point is well taken that maybe the Deni trade isn’t as black and white as a lot of us say it is.

But, I still think the move was a no brainer. It doesn’t matter what we got back for him. We didn’t trade him because we thought we’d get an even return. And honestly, Bub and AD don’t nearly approach a fair return. But, we traded him to tank. And it was the rational thing to do. It bought us more lotto balls for a shot at Flagg, but we wound up with Tre. The following year, we did actually win the lotto and took AJ.

The strategy was sound, and it worked. Statistically, was there some possibility of having as good an outcome if we didn't trade Deni, and got lucky? Sure. But we played the odds in the most statistically favorable way, and we won.

And taking this FO as a whole, we’ve drafted extremely well,have developed players well, have gotten off of bad contracts, and have made shrewd trades that have loaded us with extra draft assets moving forward. We have a team that’s super deep, with young guys that look like they could be all stars and a number one pick that looks like he could be all NBA. Who is going to start, and who is going to close out, and who is going to get minutes, is a constant topic of conversation, because we’ve built such a young, deep roster.

The complaining is crazy. I’d checked out on the team long ago because after the Wall/Beal teams flamed out, and we refused to tank, it looked like we wouldn’t have a chance of being relevant in any kind of reasonable time frame.

And now we are. We are young, deep, talented, have tons of draft assets moving forward, and it’s not crazy to talk about ways that we could mold this roster into a championship team. In my entire life, that hasn’t really been a conversation with this team.

I’m too lazy, but if I could go back and plus 1 every one of Doc’s posts in the past few pages, I would.

We took the path that was just obviously statistically more likely to result in a successful tank and roster reset, and got an outcome that was probably better than we had any right to expect. We have more to be excited about than any time I can remember, and people are complaining about the approach. It’s irrational. Maybe you can take certain moves and say we could have done better. It’s a results oriented process. We had a winning strategy, executed it, and are far better off for all of the losing, and roster dumping of the last 3 years.