Shams; Kawhi Leonard has agreed on a two-year, $115 million contract extension

[dhsilv2]

Well, he made it through a 7 game series in 24/25 and played 65 games last season. He's had good health in the last 1.5 years since coming back from his knee procedure in the 2024 off season.

I think the narrative has gone a bit too far. As a Clipper, he played in 35 playoff games while missing 12 playoff games. That's still playing in 75% of the possible playoff games. That's not quite as terrible as people make it out to be.

Well, that is a misleading statement. The Clippers would have played more playoff games if he were healthy.

2020 - healthy good run
2021 - hurt in playoffs
2022 - team missed playoffs due to him not playing
2023 - hurt in playoffs
2024 - hurt in playoffs
2025 - Healthy and lost first round
2026 - missed playoffs

So maybe in 2026 he stays healthy, maybe not. Maybe if they won the 2025 series he stays healthy, maybe not?

But none the less you have him hurt effectively 4 straight seasons and he hasn't played past the first round since 2021.

Don't know that they would have gone much further in 23 and 24, they went up against the WCF champ in the first round both those seasons and those Clipper teams weren't world beaters.

Definitely had a chance in 2021, so that injury was unfortunate when it happened.

He missed the whole season in 2022, so as for the discussion on playoff availability, not really relevant here.

So, really we are looking at 2 fully healthy playoff runs, 2 short abbreviated ones and one where he played 2/3 of the games for another playoff run.

That probably makes his odds of making a fully healthy playoff run closer to 50/50 rather no chance at all that's being projected.

I'm not sure why if they could or couldn't matters here. Leonard got hurt which means the team is likely to lose to any other playoff team most years. If you miss playoff games because the team losses without you, just saying he played 75% is misleading. This isn't an 8th man who's playing doesn't really move the needle but is a nice to have in a close series.

And yes missing 2022 certainly shows another year he wasn't available. The clippers were seen as a playoff team in 2022 with a health Leonard. So that's games they could have played in had he been health.

There is absolutely NOTHING in the data we have here that indicates Leonard has anywhere close to a 50/50 chance of being healthy for a long playoff run 2+ series. And that's before we factor in he's a year older.

[PushDaRock]

Well, that is a misleading statement. The Clippers would have played more playoff games if he were healthy.

2020 - healthy good run
2021 - hurt in playoffs
2022 - team missed playoffs due to him not playing
2023 - hurt in playoffs
2024 - hurt in playoffs
2025 - Healthy and lost first round
2026 - missed playoffs

So maybe in 2026 he stays healthy, maybe not. Maybe if they won the 2025 series he stays healthy, maybe not?

But none the less you have him hurt effectively 4 straight seasons and he hasn't played past the first round since 2021.

Don't know that they would have gone much further in 23 and 24, they went up against the WCF champ in the first round both those seasons and those Clipper teams weren't world beaters.

Definitely had a chance in 2021, so that injury was unfortunate when it happened.

He missed the whole season in 2022, so as for the discussion on playoff availability, not really relevant here.

So, really we are looking at 2 fully healthy playoff runs, 2 short abbreviated ones and one where he played 2/3 of the games for another playoff run.

That probably makes his odds of making a fully healthy playoff run closer to 50/50 rather no chance at all that's being projected.

I'm not sure why if they could or couldn't matters here. Leonard got hurt which means the team is likely to lose to any other playoff team most years. If you miss playoff games because the team losses without you, just saying he played 75% is misleading. This isn't an 8th man who's playing doesn't really move the needle but is a nice to have in a close series.

And yes missing 2022 certainly shows another year he wasn't available. The clippers were seen as a playoff team in 2022 with a health Leonard. So that's games they could have played in had he been health.

There is absolutely NOTHING in the data we have here that indicates Leonard has anywhere close to a 50/50 chance of being healthy for a long playoff run 2+ series. And that's before we factor in he's a year older.

What do you put his actual odds at making a full playoff run at then?

[Edrees]

That player option at 38 year old Kawhi will be horrible for the raptors. lol.

[dhsilv2]

Don't know that they would have gone much further in 23 and 24, they went up against the WCF champ in the first round both those seasons and those Clipper teams weren't world beaters.

Definitely had a chance in 2021, so that injury was unfortunate when it happened.

He missed the whole season in 2022, so as for the discussion on playoff availability, not really relevant here.

So, really we are looking at 2 fully healthy playoff runs, 2 short abbreviated ones and one where he played 2/3 of the games for another playoff run.

That probably makes his odds of making a fully healthy playoff run closer to 50/50 rather no chance at all that's being projected.

I'm not sure why if they could or couldn't matters here. Leonard got hurt which means the team is likely to lose to any other playoff team most years. If you miss playoff games because the team losses without you, just saying he played 75% is misleading. This isn't an 8th man who's playing doesn't really move the needle but is a nice to have in a close series.

And yes missing 2022 certainly shows another year he wasn't available. The clippers were seen as a playoff team in 2022 with a health Leonard. So that's games they could have played in had he been health.

There is absolutely NOTHING in the data we have here that indicates Leonard has anywhere close to a 50/50 chance of being healthy for a long playoff run 2+ series. And that's before we factor in he's a year older.

What do you put his actual odds at making a full playoff run at then?

Assuming we're talking say 14 games. Maybe 5-10% at best.

edit

Just to add. He got hurt in the 2017 playoffs. Missed the 2018 playoffs. And all the respect in the world, but he was playing hurt in 2019 in those finals. This history of being hurt goes back a decade.

[PushDaRock]

I'm not sure why if they could or couldn't matters here. Leonard got hurt which means the team is likely to lose to any other playoff team most years. If you miss playoff games because the team losses without you, just saying he played 75% is misleading. This isn't an 8th man who's playing doesn't really move the needle but is a nice to have in a close series.

And yes missing 2022 certainly shows another year he wasn't available. The clippers were seen as a playoff team in 2022 with a health Leonard. So that's games they could have played in had he been health.

There is absolutely NOTHING in the data we have here that indicates Leonard has anywhere close to a 50/50 chance of being healthy for a long playoff run 2+ series. And that's before we factor in he's a year older.

What do you put his actual odds at making a full playoff run at then?

Assuming we're talking say 14 games. Maybe 5-10% at best.

I think it's significantly higher than that, so will just agree to disagree.

[dhsilv2]

What do you put his actual odds at making a full playoff run at then?

Assuming we're talking say 14 games. Maybe 5-10% at best.

I think it's significantly higher than that, so will just agree to disagree.

I just think that's based on fantasy. Lets go even further back.

2017 - injured
2018 - injured
2019 - played hurt in the finals
2020 - Healthy Bubble
2021 - Injured
2022 - Injured
2023 - Injured
2024 - Injured
2025 - Healthy lost first round
2026 - missed playoffs

[Ssj16]

If Kawhi took a 2yr/$60 million extension discount they'd still be hating and mad...it's not about the trade or extension, they just don't like Kawhi, I've even seen posters rooting for him to get injured.

People forget that Raptors were the original victims of this cap circumvention by the Clippers, their desperation to get Kawhi in free agency by any means necessary potentially cost the Raptors 1-2 more championships.

This is what karma looks like, Clippers get rightfully screwed for playing dirty, while Raptors were playing by the books and reported Uncle Dennis in 2019 when he was asking for obvious cap circumvention deals.

1-2 more championships lmao.

The KD/Steph warriors and heatles only won two but nephew with the bum leg was gonna 3 peat

Bum leg and still would've beat the 2020 Celtics, Heat, Lakers

I bet you were also laughing when I predicted the Knicks would beat your Spurs before the OKC series was even over.

It's wild to objectively think that the Raptors did not have a high chance of repeating when:
-the raps went to game 7 without Kawhi against Boston in the second round
-Kawhi was healthy in the playoffs and they lost the 3-1 lead mostly due to Pandemic P and the greatness of Murray and Jokic
-the Heat were far from the most impressive team to make the Finals and Kawhi doesn't only nullify Butler but he's Butler 2.0

[PushDaRock]

Assuming we're talking say 14 games. Maybe 5-10% at best.

I think it's significantly higher than that, so will just agree to disagree.

I just think that's based on fantasy. Lets go even further back.

2017 - injured
2018 - injured
2019 - played hurt in the finals
2020 - Healthy Bubble
2021 - Injured
2022 - Injured
2023 - Injured
2024 - Injured
2025 - Healthy lost first round
2026 - missed playoffs

Probably more likely than not, you will get to brag about how you were right next year.

[Slim Charlez]

1-2 more championships lmao.

The KD/Steph warriors and heatles only won two but nephew with the bum leg was gonna 3 peat

Bum leg and still would've beat the 2020 Celtics, Heat, Lakers

I bet you were also laughing when I predicted the Knicks would beat your Spurs before the OKC series was even over.

It's wild to objectively think that the Raptors did not have a high chance of repeating when:
-the raps went to game 7 without Kawhi against Boston in the second round
-Kawhi was healthy in the playoffs and they lost the 3-1 lead mostly due to Pandemic P and the greatness of Murray and Jokic
-the Heat were far from the most impressive team to make the Finals and Kawhi doesn't only nullify Butler but he's Butler 2.0

Didn't he have a whooping 14 points in game 7?

[LoveMyRaps]

That player option at 38 year old Kawhi will be horrible for the raptors. lol.

Why?

[dhsilv2]

I think it's significantly higher than that, so will just agree to disagree.

I just think that's based on fantasy. Lets go even further back.

2017 - injured
2018 - injured
2019 - played hurt in the finals
2020 - Healthy Bubble
2021 - Injured
2022 - Injured
2023 - Injured
2024 - Injured
2025 - Healthy lost first round
2026 - missed playoffs

Probably more likely than not, you will get to brag about how you were right next year.

I'd rather be wrong and see Leonard play to be honest. It's more fun when stars are healthy. It's just a bad bet.

[FOB]

lmao.

As a Raptors fan I found this funny. But this is a pretty decent contract ngl.

The caveat is always "if he's healthy." If you get two healthy-ish season and playoff runs out of him then yeah, worth it. From an ethical perspective though, not sure any price is worth it given what a sleazeball this guy is and the fact the tampering was happening while he was still in SA and then in Toronto. But I get it.

As I said in the other thread my ultimate fantasy this season is Toronto reaching the Finals to play my Spurs so that Wemby's first ring is one achieved that denies Kawhi and sends him home. Total full circle moment for us

I'll take this result and would consider it a successful trade.

My thoughts exactly lol. I'm still buzzing from the Jays' world series run last year. Sure, losing hurts, but overall a finals run by one of your favourite teams is just such a memorable, emotional, epic (and rare!) experience

[BlackThought]

Watch on YouTube

Barnes seems to like it after the initial shock.

[FOB]

The caveat is always "if he's healthy." If you get two healthy-ish season and playoff runs out of him then yeah, worth it. From an ethical perspective though, not sure any price is worth it given what a sleazeball this guy is and the fact the tampering was happening while he was still in SA and then in Toronto. But I get it.

As I said in the other thread my ultimate fantasy this season is Toronto reaching the Finals to play my Spurs so that Wemby's first ring is one achieved that denies Kawhi and sends him home. Total full circle moment for us

Really?

Parker is my guy and I always defend him on here

What's more horrible in ethical perspective, Parker who cheated with the wife of his teammate that basically destroyed their family with two children or Kawhi circumventing the cap?

Lmao...you thought this was some kind of "gotcha?" How long did you have to desperately scour my post history to find that? "Destroyed their family" ROFL. And you think my comment is about defending him in the context of cheating and not as a basketball player? Ok dude. You think the guy literally being investigated by the DOJ for his fraudulent activity after the NBA levied one of the biggest punishments ever against his former team because of his shenanigans is on par with two consenting adults sexting each other. Just because you support a spineless franchise that welcomes their horrible ex back with open arms in a desperate attempt to remain relevant doesn't mean the rest of us have to think it's all good and well. But I get it, he gave you the only taste of relevancy ever in your franchise's history so I get being so thirsty for the glory days that you're willing to look the other way

Jesus dude take a breath lol. Might wanna rethink hurling childish insults at an entire franchise (and with it its fanbase) for such an insignificant issue. Not a great look

[Edrees]

That player option at 38 year old Kawhi will be horrible for the raptors. lol.

Why?

I dont think he'll be healthy enough to play very many games at 38.

[og15]

Bum leg and still would've beat the 2020 Celtics, Heat, Lakers

I bet you were also laughing when I predicted the Knicks would beat your Spurs before the OKC series was even over.

It's wild to objectively think that the Raptors did not have a high chance of repeating when:
-the raps went to game 7 without Kawhi against Boston in the second round
-Kawhi was healthy in the playoffs and they lost the 3-1 lead mostly due to Pandemic P and the greatness of Murray and Jokic
-the Heat were far from the most impressive team to make the Finals and Kawhi doesn't only nullify Butler but he's Butler 2.0

Didn't he have a whooping 14 points in game 7?

Everyone remembers Paul George struggling in the series but forget that Kawhi was also part of why they lost game 7. He was 1/11 for 2 pts in the 2nd half