At what point...

[Duffman100]

Do we fire JP and Gibbons this season? Do they go together or at seperate times?

I say, if half way through the season we aren't leading the division or at least the dominating the wild card, they should go.

And honestly, I think you have to send a message to the players and fire them both at the same time. Let the players know that medicority is not good enough. That making excuses of injuries, divisions, and time just aren't acceptable.

[The_Hater]

It does seem like they're attached at the hip.

I think that JP has at least 2 more years in him. I think Godfrey likes him and buys his rebuilding plan. This isn't nearly as bad as the sales job Isiah Thomas has done on James Dolan but still, I think he's bought himself more time than we realize.

And while I think that Gibbons could become a scapegoat for JP should it start to get hot on him during the next 12 months, I think that Gibbons job is safe for the next 2 years too. His faults aside, JP seems like a pretty loyal guy.

It's a wonderful situation isn't it? We have a below average GM that has created a mediocre treadmill team that comes with a high payroll and a terrible farm system limiting our future.

[Duffman100]

It does seem like they're attached at the hip.

I think that JP has at least 2 more years in him. I think Godfrey likes him and buys his rebuilding plan. This isn't nearly as bad as the sales job Isiah Thomas has done on James Dolan but still, I think he's bought himself more time than we realize.

And while I think that Gibbons could become a scapegoat for JP should it start to get hot on him during the next 12 months, I think that Gibbons job is safe for the next 2 years too. His faults aside, JP seems like a pretty loyal guy.

It's a wonderful situation isn't it? We have a below average GM that has created a mediocre treadmill team that comes with a high payroll and a terrible farm system limiting our future.

Wow, can we frame this part of your post and send it to godfrey?

I'll be seriously depressed that if in 2 years they are both still here. Quite frankly, as bad as Gibbons is, I'd rather get rid of JP. You're right, we need to start building some semblance of a farm system. Who was the last positional player, other than aaron hill, that has come from JP's drafting.

[Holmes]

I think Gibbons will be fired if he doesn't make the playoffs this season. Whether it is during midseason or at the end of it, it's over for him and we won't be seeing him behind another bench again.

J.P. will still be here for the shere fact that GMs are given more benefit of the doubt than managers do when it comes to responsibility for a team's failure.

But now with his initial long-term plan failing and no more time for another long-term plan he's been reduced to a reactive GM rather than a proactive one.

[arrpy]

I'd say JP has at least 2-3 more years left with the Jays. But Gibbons, This could be his last.

Something has to happen.

[The_Hater]

But now with his initial long-term plan failing and no more time for another long-term plan he's been reduced to a reactive GM rather than a proactive one.

Excellent observation.

[OldNo7]

Do we fire JP and Gibbons this season? Do they go together or at seperate times?

I say, if half way through the season we aren't leading the division or at least the dominating the wild card, they should go.

And honestly, I think you have to send a message to the players and fire them both at the same time. Let the players know that medicority is not good enough. That making excuses of injuries, divisions, and time just aren't acceptable.

as if either of those are even a remote possibility

[risktaker91]

-= original quote snipped =-



as if either of those are even a remote possibility

If Yankees lose A-Rod, Jeter, Pettite, Wang and Posada for the season or the Sox lose Dice-K, Beckett, Schilling (gone), Manny and Papi for the season we have a slight chance. Of course we have to be entirely healthy.

[Duffman100]

-= original quote snipped =-



as if either of those are even a remote possibility

I know! At the beginning of the season I always delude myself into thinking we have some what of a shot.

For me, this season HAS to be a win/win. Either we win games, or we lose games and they are fired.

[OldNo7]

Well then this board is right for you, because we are all in reality and understand this team is an 83-87-win revolving door. You can get back to reality here with us.

[arrpy]

I could only Dream of us leading our division, or even the Wild Card.

Right now we have not a chance in the world at any of those accomplishments. I see the Jays once again coming in 3rd place in our division, and not even in the running for the wild card.

[arrpy]

This article struck me quite funny.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/ar ... &fext=.jsp

At least we now know the Jays have confidence...

[Michael Bradley]

I don't think competing for the playoffs is far fetched at all. Despite the strength of the AL, this is probably Toronto's best team under Ricciardi's watch. Last year's team had no depth, no upside, and tons of injuries and yet still finished with 83 wins and a pythag win total of 87. On paper, the current team looks to be at least as good as the 2006 team, but with a bit more upside. So I think anything between 85-90 wins is probable, and the chance for 90-95 is there with some luck and health. Obviously there is some downside given the amount of injury risks on the roster, but we have to live with it.

I know it doesn't seem like the team has improved much, but I've been fairly pleased with Ricciardi's off-season. He added short-term upgrades at low cost and significantly improved the depth on the roster. The improvement against RHP is subtle, but hopefully proves to be impactful on the field (Eckstein is a .200+ OPS improvement over McDonald against RHP and Rolen on a bum shoulder far surpassed Glaus the last two seasons in that area).

I think this really is Toronto's best chance of succeeding under JP. Whether it happens or not is another story, but from a talent/roster standpoint, I'm MUCH happier with this roster than I've been since about 1999.

[risktaker91]

I don't think competing for the playoffs is far fetched at all. Despite the strength of the AL, this is probably Toronto's best team under Ricciardi's watch. Last year's team had no depth, no upside, and tons of injuries and yet still finished with 83 wins and a pythag win total of 87. On paper, the current team looks to be at least as good as the 2006 team, but with a bit more upside. So I think anything between 85-90 wins is probable, and the chance for 90-95 is there with some luck and health. Obviously there is some downside given the amount of injury risks on the roster, but we have to live with it.

I know it doesn't seem like the team has improved much, but I've been fairly pleased with Ricciardi's off-season. He added short-term upgrades at low cost and significantly improved the depth on the roster. The improvement against RHP is subtle, but hopefully proves to be impactful on the field (Eckstein is a .200+ OPS improvement over McDonald against RHP and Rolen on a bum shoulder far surpassed Glaus the last two seasons in that area).

I think this really is Toronto's best chance of succeeding under JP. Whether it happens or not is another story, but from a talent/roster standpoint, I'm MUCH happier with this roster than I've been since about 1999.

Sure we're better, but we are still stuck in mediocrity.

[Geddy]

Well then this board is right for you, because we are all in reality and understand this team is an 83-87-win revolving door. You can get back to reality here with us.

wait so you're saying we're not going to win 110 games?

[The_Hater]

Rolen is a huge key this year. This guy was a monster player for years back when he was healthy. If he can log 140-145 games and be healthy enough to get some of his pop back, that's going to spark the offense quite a bit.

Other than that, you can't expect Wells, Overbay and RJ to hit as poorly as they did last season. Eckstein will improve the SS spot and Barjaras the awful back-up catching we had last season. Those were 2 complete dead spots in our lineup. Even if Thomas and Stairs slide backwards the offense should be improved.

But can the pitching repeat last seasons performance when we were 2nd in the AL in ERA? If it does (definitely a big if), I guess 93-95 wins is possible. I do see a few spots (Ryan, Chacin, League, Burnett, even Halliday) where we could get improvement to make-up for anyone that slides. And Josh Towers is finally gone, you can't really put a price on that!

[Holmes]

I think this really is Toronto's best chance of succeeding under JP. Whether it happens or not is another story, but from a talent/roster standpoint, I'm MUCH happier with this roster than I've been since about 1999.

Everybody thought 2006 was "the season" for J.P. Completely overhauling the roster with key players through trades and FA signings. He picked up Molina, Overbay, Glaus, Burnett, and B.J. Ryan, all established major leaguers. 2006 offseason had to be the height of Toronto Blue Jays optimism in a long time. After it was all said and done we won 87 games during a rare season when one of NY or BOS struggled. That was our best chance. Unfortunately, that season got derailed with a huge losing streak in August. But I think that was the closest J.P. will ever get to "succeeding".

It's hard to imagine that the optimism this season can match that of 2006. Both Boston and New York are much stronger than they were in 2006. Sure, J.P. made some nice minor moves, but our entire season hinges on health (again) and players to bounce back. There's really no new influx of talent. Even J.P. said countless times at the end of last season that he likes his team and won't change much of it going into 2008. He is banking on Wells, Overbay, Johnson, Rolen, Ryan, League and Chacin (all whom are key players on the team) to have bounce back years and return to form. He is banking on another career year from 40 year old Matt Stairs and a return of power to a 40 year old Frank Thomas. Halladay and Burnett must not make their annual DL apperance. Lind, Thigpen, and Litsch have to prove that they belong to provide depth that our farm system cannot give at the moment. The amount of IFs going into this season are staggering.

I'm not closing the door on any chance of a surprise run at contention as I'm sure we will all be CHEERING hard for the Jays until we are out of it. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we ended up 3rd again with another list of the same excuses we get year after year.

[The_Hater]

Everybody thought 2006 was "the season" for J.P. Completely overhauling the roster with key players through trades and FA signings. He picked up Molina, Overbay, Glaus, Burnett, and B.J. Ryan, all established major leaguers. 2006 offseason had to be the height of Toronto Blue Jays optimism in a long time. After it was all said and done we won 87 games during a rare season when one of NY or BOS struggled. That was our best chance. Unfortunately, that season got derailed with a huge losing streak in August. But I think that was the closest J.P. will ever get to "succeeding".

It's going to be the same thing most seasons. There's enough talent to win more than half their games but to win enough games to make the playoffs virtually everything has to go right. Health from most of the key players and few career seasons across the roster.

It's a longshot for everything to come together like that but not impossible with the roster that has been assembled.

[Michael Bradley]

Both Boston and New York are much stronger than they were in 2006. Sure, J.P. made some nice minor moves, but our entire season hinges on health (again) and players to bounce back. There's really no new influx of talent. Even J.P. said countless times at the end of last season that he likes his team and won't change much of it going into 2008. He is banking on Wells, Overbay, Johnson, Rolen, Ryan, League and Chacin (all whom are key players on the team) to have bounce back years and return to form. He is banking on another career year from 40 year old Matt Stairs and a return of power to a 40 year old Frank Thomas. Halladay and Burnett must not make their annual DL apperance. Lind, Thigpen, and Litsch have to prove that they belong to provide depth that our farm system cannot give at the moment. The amount of IFs going into this season are staggering.

Toronto was 2nd best in the AL at run prevention last season (699), only behind Boston. While I don't expect them to be that good in 2008, there is a reason why I am more optimistic about them than the 2006 rotation: Talent.

Dustin McGowan has ace calibre talent. Shaun Marcum, other than a case of gopher-itis, has pretty much brought his minor league ratios to the Majors. He mixes speeds well enough to keep hitters off balance (7.01 career K/9). Even a guy like Janssen, who can throw in the low-90's and keeps the ball on the ground/prevents HR's is a solid pitcher in the 5th spot. It's not like 2006 where the team was banking on Chacin and Towers to continue to win with smoke and mirrors. There's enough talent in there for me to be fairly comfortable in the rotation. Is there unpredictability and health issues with everyone? Absolutely. But you'd be hard pressed to find a staff in baseball without those risks. That's just the nature of pitching in general. The entire AL East will be relying on highly flammable, unpredictable pitching (McGowan, Marcum, Burnett, Buchholz, Lester, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Schilling, etc).

As far as the offense, how is relying on players bouncing back a negative? Many of the players (Wells, Overbay, Johnson in particular) were legitimately injured and saw massive drops in their production because of it. Neither of those players had pronounced injury histories. So why exactly is it faulty to expect more of a career norm from them in 2008, assuming they are healthy? Scott Rolen has a long injury history (with the same shoulder), so he's definitely a question mark, but even with a bum shoulder he outhit Glaus against RHP substantially over the last two seasons, and he's coming into a more hitter friendly environment. Eckstein is a .200 OPS improvement over John McDonald against RHP, which is the equivalent of replacing Reed Johnson with Grady Sizemore (i.e. it's a huge improvement). As far as Stairs, no one should be expecting him to repeat 2007, but he's generally very good against RHP, and even with a bad back Reed Johnson crushed LHP last season. Thomas is definitely a risk due to age/injury, although he played 155 games last season and had a .901 OPS in the 2nd half. Zaun and Barajas should be remarkably better than Zaun and the parade of garage last season.

I don't see the huge issue with expecting this team to be competitive. They won 87 games in 2006 despite inexplicably trotting Josh Towers out there to the tune of a 2-10 record and 9.00+ ERA, and won 83 games in 2007 despite a ton of injuries and no depth. This is clearly an 85-win calibre team on its own. Adding Eckstein, Rolen over Glaus, Scutaro, Barajas, hopefully a healthy Ryan/League, etc, provide incremental improvement to an 85-win core. Couple that with some of the younger players reaching their primes (Rios, Hill, McGowan, Marcum, Janssen, League, Accardo, etc), and there's certainly a possibility for significant improvement.

[SmallTownJournalist303]

Sorry, I really don't see your optimism. While your argument is well made, I feel like the younger guys in our pitching staff (especially guys like Marcum and Litsch) are due for a consolidation year; this is to say that they might take a step back before they take another step forward.
Also, I really don't see our offense taking that much of a step forward. While I feel Wells will bounce back somewhat, I don't trust Rolen's shoulder whatsoever and I'm not confident guys like Overbay and Johnson are going to come back and post good enough numbers. I also can't see Thomas and Stairs playing like last year, so it's going to take some serious improvement to make up for that.
Going back to the original idea of the topic, J.P. has to go ASAP. Seriously, this guy has killed our team. That said, I don't have any confidence that our management will have the balls to fire him.