knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
What???? What time? They are not going to stop me from getting my drink on will they?
Nothing has EVER stopped you from getting your drink on, pimp'n!
OT: Obama wins the Iowa Caucus
Moderators: Jeff Van Gully, HerSports85, Capn'O, dakomish23, j4remi, Deeeez Knicks, NoLayupRule, mpharris36, GONYK
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cmaff051
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knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
They are campaigning NH together now. I agree Hillary is not Bill. That wont stop her using him to win. The debate sunday will be interesting. Lets see how Obama handles being the favorite.
Obama needs a strong showing at the debate. Everybody will be watching. Clinton is desperate and will be after some blood. She realizes if she loses NH to South Carolina her chances at the nomination will be tough...so she will pull out all stops in the next four days.
One thing I know is that you never count out a Clinton... she and her team have the support, the infrastructure, the ground game, the finances and the savvy to win this nomination.
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BasicBall
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cmaff051 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Obama needs a strong showing at the debate. Everybody will be watching. Clinton is desperate and will be after some blood. She realizes if she loses NH to South Carolina her chances at the nomination will be tough...so she will pull out all stops in the next four days.
One thing I know is that you never count out a Clinton... she and her team have the support, the infrastructure, the ground game, the finances and the savvy to win this nomination.
True! Hillary will be all over Barack, but the dark horse is Edwards.....He is laying in the cut, he better not be ignored.....Dude can steal the show!
Don't raise your voice, improve your argument 
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cmaff051
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BasicBall wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
True! Hillary will be all over Barack, but the dark horse is Edwards.....He is laying in the cut, he better not be ignored.....Dude can steal the show!
Edwards has an outside chance to win the nomination, but the 2nd place finish at Iowa pretty much eliminated any chance of him winning it. I agree that he can steal the show, but not by being a candidate, but by conceding and then supporting another candidate. Edwards has a sizable following and if he concedes after New Hampshire or South Carolina and endorses Obama, Hillary better watch out...
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CDAZ wrote:This is real talk. Friend of mine just e-mailed it to me. This goes to some of the posters saying that america is ready.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITYBbN29X4g
Its kinda sad that race has to be brought in to this as a major factor. People should be focused more on the plans of the future presidents, not their race, sex, or religion. It is big deal that we would have our first black or female president, but that shouldn't affect our choice when it becomes the time to vote.
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CDAZ
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Ultimate Kings Fan wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Its kinda sad that race has to be brought in to this as a major factor. People should be focused more on the plans of the future presidents, not their race, sex, or religion. It is big deal that we would have our first black or female president, but that shouldn't affect our choice when it becomes the time to vote.
You're absolutely right, but it's foolish to believe that people aren't factoring race, religion, sex, or culture when they go into the voting both. Ignorance is very strong. It's been around since before we were all born and i'm sure it will be here after we're dead
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riyaz_guerra
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Clinton held a double-digit lead in the polls for a good while in NH, but Obama has closed that lead to single digits in the past months.
I've seen a few polls and they mostly have Clinton ahead by either 6-7%.
There are two keys factors that will determine who will win in NH.
1. The 7-8% of democrat primary voters that are UNDECIDED. Hillary needs to convince a few of them to her side, Barack needs to convince nearly all of this group to his side via his momentum and to a lesser extent, the NH debate this weekend.
2. Dodd, Biden supporters and to a lesser extent, Richardson 'supporters'.
In the latest Zogby poll
http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
they have 1%, 2%, and 7% respectively. Any major shift of these voters to either Hillary or Obama may be enough to win the state.
Dodd and Biden are both out of the race, and their voters (IMHO) are more likely to choose Hillary over Obama. Richardson is still in the race, but a single digit finish in NH will finish him. The question is,...will his supporters abandon him now or will they still come out for him?
A Hillary victory rests on her ability to win all of Biden's and Dodd's supporters. Being able to siphon some (or nearly all) of Richardson's support will seal the deal for her.
Obama's best chances rests on his ability to capture nearly all of the 7-8% of undecideds,...the majority of whom are Independents and have been leaning towards Obama...AND his ability to siphon some of Richardon's support.
The wild card factors:
Obama becoming the hunted as opposed as the hunter.
With his victory in Iowa as well as the desperation by other campaigns, Obama will likely become the primary target of negative attack ads. Perhaps the cumulative effect of attacks will stymie his momentum and give candidates like Edwards a bump. Any negative impact on Obama should be seen as a boost for the Hillary camp, so she will benefit indirectly.
The New Hampshire Debate on Saturday
The new tone of the race will be highly visible in this event. Whether any damaging revelations are introduced, Obama stumbles in fending off the attacks, OR a line of attack sticks (remember the Kerry flip-flops?) , Obama may be bloodied enough to lose New Hampshire. Debates historically do not dramatically influence the race, but things can potentially get ugly.
The Obama momentum
Will the Iowa carryover be significant enough to dislodge NH Hillary supporters? Hillary supporters are said to be highly loyal (i think around 60%?) Can her broken aura of inevitability spur some of the lesser loyal Hillary supporters jump ship? It remains to be seen just how potent is Obama's momentum.
I've seen a few polls and they mostly have Clinton ahead by either 6-7%.
There are two keys factors that will determine who will win in NH.
1. The 7-8% of democrat primary voters that are UNDECIDED. Hillary needs to convince a few of them to her side, Barack needs to convince nearly all of this group to his side via his momentum and to a lesser extent, the NH debate this weekend.
2. Dodd, Biden supporters and to a lesser extent, Richardson 'supporters'.
In the latest Zogby poll
http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
they have 1%, 2%, and 7% respectively. Any major shift of these voters to either Hillary or Obama may be enough to win the state.
Dodd and Biden are both out of the race, and their voters (IMHO) are more likely to choose Hillary over Obama. Richardson is still in the race, but a single digit finish in NH will finish him. The question is,...will his supporters abandon him now or will they still come out for him?
A Hillary victory rests on her ability to win all of Biden's and Dodd's supporters. Being able to siphon some (or nearly all) of Richardson's support will seal the deal for her.
Obama's best chances rests on his ability to capture nearly all of the 7-8% of undecideds,...the majority of whom are Independents and have been leaning towards Obama...AND his ability to siphon some of Richardon's support.
The wild card factors:
Obama becoming the hunted as opposed as the hunter.
With his victory in Iowa as well as the desperation by other campaigns, Obama will likely become the primary target of negative attack ads. Perhaps the cumulative effect of attacks will stymie his momentum and give candidates like Edwards a bump. Any negative impact on Obama should be seen as a boost for the Hillary camp, so she will benefit indirectly.
The New Hampshire Debate on Saturday
The new tone of the race will be highly visible in this event. Whether any damaging revelations are introduced, Obama stumbles in fending off the attacks, OR a line of attack sticks (remember the Kerry flip-flops?) , Obama may be bloodied enough to lose New Hampshire. Debates historically do not dramatically influence the race, but things can potentially get ugly.
The Obama momentum
Will the Iowa carryover be significant enough to dislodge NH Hillary supporters? Hillary supporters are said to be highly loyal (i think around 60%?) Can her broken aura of inevitability spur some of the lesser loyal Hillary supporters jump ship? It remains to be seen just how potent is Obama's momentum.
"When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative." - Martin Luther King Jr.
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knicks742
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riyaz_guerra wrote:Clinton held a double-digit lead in the polls for a good while in NH, but Obama has closed that lead to single digits in the past months.
I've seen a few polls and they mostly have Clinton ahead by either 6-7%.
There are two keys factors that will determine who will win in NH.
1. The 7-8% of democrat primary voters that are UNDECIDED. Hillary needs to convince a few of them to her side, Barack needs to convince nearly all of this group to his side via his momentum and to a lesser extent, the NH debate this weekend.
2. Dodd, Biden supporters and to a lesser extent, Richardson 'supporters'.
In the latest Zogby poll
http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
they have 1%, 2%, and 7% respectively. Any major shift of these voters to either Hillary or Obama may be enough to win the state.
Dodd and Biden are both out of the race, and their voters (IMHO) are more likely to choose Hillary over Obama. Richardson is still in the race, but a single digit finish in NH will finish him. The question is,...will his supporters abandon him now or will they still come out for him?
A Hillary victory rests on her ability to win all of Biden's and Dodd's supporters. Being able to siphon some (or nearly all) of Richardson's support will seal the deal for her.
Obama's best chances rests on his ability to capture nearly all of the 7-8% of undecideds,...the majority of whom are Independents and have been leaning towards Obama...AND his ability to siphon some of Richardon's support.
The wild card factors:
Obama becoming the hunted as opposed as the hunter.
With his victory in Iowa as well as the desperation by other campaigns, Obama will likely become the primary target of negative attack ads. Perhaps the cumulative effect of attacks will stymie his momentum and give candidates like Edwards a bump. Any negative impact on Obama should be seen as a boost for the Hillary camp, so she will benefit indirectly.
The New Hampshire Debate on Saturday
The new tone of the race will be highly visible in this event. Whether any damaging revelations are introduced, Obama stumbles in fending off the attacks, OR a line of attack sticks (remember the Kerry flip-flops?) , Obama may be bloodied enough to lose New Hampshire. Not likely to happen, but if things can potentially get ugly.
The Obama momentum
Will the Iowa carryover be significant enough to dislodge NH Hillary supporters? Hillary supporters are said to be highly loyal (i think around 60%?) Can her broken aura of inevitability spur some of the lesser loyal Hillary supporters jump ship? It remains to be seen just how potent is Obama's momentum.
You forgot the real undecideds. Since the Republican Primary is now wide open, do they decide instead to support McCain or do they vote in the democratic primary in which they most likely would support Obama??? McCain has been campaigning hard to get these guys to vote in the Republican primary.
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riyaz_guerra
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knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
You forgot the real undecideds. Since the Republican Primary is now wide open, do they decide instead to support McCain or do they vote in the democratic primary in which they most likely would support Obama??? McCain has been campaigning hard to get these guys to vote in the Republican primary.
I saw in wikipedia that the NH primary is not a real 'open primary' in that if you are registered as a Democrat or Republican you cannot vote in the other party's primary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
On the other hand, registered Independents are allowed to vote in either of the party's primary.
Facts of note
Independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans and can vote in either primary
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states ... shire.html
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.
.
Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
Lastly, an important note from the previous link I submitted about the latest Zogby poll WRT Independents represented in the poll numbers
Among independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama enjoys 33% backing, compared to 27% support for Clinton and 21% for Edwards.
http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
"When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative." - Martin Luther King Jr.
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knicks742
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riyaz_guerra wrote:knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
You forgot the real undecideds. Since the Republican Primary is now wide open, do they decide instead to support McCain or do they vote in the democratic primary in which they most likely would support Obama??? McCain has been campaigning hard to get these guys to vote in the Republican primary.
I saw in wikipedia that the NH primary is not a real 'open primary' in that if you are registered as a Democrat or Republican you cannot vote in the other party's primary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
On the other hand, registered Independents are allowed to vote in either of the party's primary.
Facts of note
Independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans and can vote in either primary
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states ... shire.html
.
.
.
Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
Yup, sorry I meant independents. When McCain beat Bush, 66% of them voted in the Republican Primary. McCain needs those people to win but so does Obama. Right now, it is expected that most will vote in the democratic primary but after what happened with Huckabee, I wonder if some of them may be reconsidering.
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riyaz_guerra
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knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Yup, sorry I meant independents. When McCain beat Bush, 66% of them voted in the Republican Primary. McCain needs those people to win but so does Obama. Right now, it is expected that most will vote in the democratic primary but after what happened with Huckabee, I wonder if some of them may be reconsidering.
I have seen a lot of commentary stating that likely Huckabee will not affect McCain's lead there, as the evangelical element that won him Iowa will not be there to deliver NH for him.
Iowa Evangelicals
http://www.thearda.com/mapsReports/repo ... 9_2000.asp
New Hampshire Evangelicals
http://www.thearda.com/mapsReports/repo ... 3_2000.asp
"When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative." - Martin Luther King Jr.
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knicks742
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riyaz_guerra wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
I have seen a lot of commentary stating that likely Huckabee will not affect McCain's lead there, as the evangelical element that won him Iowa will not be there to deliver NH for him.
Iowa Evangelicals
http://www.thearda.com/mapsReports/repo ... 9_2000.asp
New Hampshire Evangelicals
http://www.thearda.com/mapsReports/repo ... 3_2000.asp
It is really close there with Romney. Romney has support of the establishment. In order for McCain to win in NH, he is going to need these independents. I am curious to see whether these independents feel it is more important that they support McCain or Obama next week. Both candidates will need them to beat Romney or Clinton.
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riyaz_guerra
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knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
It is really close there with Romney. Romney has support of the establishment. In order for McCain to win in NH, he is going to need these independents. I am curious to see whether these independents feel it is more important that they support McCain or Obama next week. Both candidates will need them to beat Romney or Clinton.
Indeed, and I have a feeling the majority will go to McCain.
Predictions:
Clinton wins NH by <4%
Richardson drops out...throws support to Hillary
Kucinich drops out...throws support to Obama
Nevada - tossup,...huge 17% undecided (although the poll was in Nov)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1388
Obama wins South Carolina
Edwards drops out...throws support to Obama
"When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative." - Martin Luther King Jr.
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knicks742
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riyaz_guerra wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Indeed, and I have a feeling the majority will go to McCain.
Predictions:
Clinton wins NH by <4%
Richardson drops out...throws support to Hillary
Kucinich drops out...throws support to Obama
Nevada - tossup,...huge 17% undecided (although the poll was in Nov)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1388
Obama wins South Carolina
Edwards drops out...throws support to Obama
If Clinton wins NH I think her and Bill take SC. They love him there. He will appeal to them and I find it hard to believe that they will refuse that to him. If this happens, Clinton will be the next president.
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cmaff051
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knicks742 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
If Clinton wins NH I think her and Bill take SC. They love him there. He will appeal to them and I find it hard to believe that they will refuse that to him. If this happens, Clinton will be the next president.
I think you are overestimating Bill's impact. And I still think that Obama should be the favorite for South Carolina whether or not Clinton wins New Hampshire.
Certainly Clinton has a lead in Florida and most of the Super Tuesday states, but winning either New Hampshire or South Carolina (or both) will give Obama momentum to bridge the gap. Especially after New Hampshire, Obama will start dividing up his troops specifically in South Carolina and Florida. That will also bridge the gap.
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CDAZ wrote:This is real talk. Friend of mine just e-mailed it to me. This goes to some of the posters saying that america is ready.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITYBbN29X4g
Here's some more real talk. Obama will have trouble winning if his black supporters spend more time badgering his white supporters than they do coming out to polls and rallies and supporting him.
If you take issue with what some of us are saying here please feel free to respond to individuals' posts instead of lobbing stereotypes in our general direction and calling it a day.
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PG: SGA | Coleworld
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CDAZ
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Capn'O wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Here's some more real talk. Obama will have trouble winning if his black supporters spend more time badgering his white supporters than they do coming out to polls and rallies and supporting him.
If you take issue with what some of us are saying here please feel free to respond to individuals' posts instead of lobbing stereotypes in our general direction and calling it a day.
Dude I think you took offense where there was none intended. Who is badgering anyone?
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Capn'O
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CDAZ wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Dude I think you took offense where there was none intended. Who is badgering anyone?
Could be - I thought you were directing the guy's accusations that white voters are going to change their tune at posters here. A couple of (presumably) white posters have come in here and defended Obama HARD. I interpreted your meaning to imply that _we_ were the hypocrites and potential turncoats... that the rant was directed at us.
If that wasn't your meaning... my bad.
I want this guy to be president soooo bad and I think you have to believe that those who have taken such a strong alliance are going to stay with him. I understand that for some voters race will be a factor but if Obama continues to look like a strong candidate I'd much rather use my energy to try and win over those on the fence than try to convince people that I'm not going to turn my back on him in the booth.
BAF Clippers: Great Team. No Future.
PG: SGA | Coleworld
SG: Big Ragu | Merrill
SF: Kuminga | Dorture Chamber
PF: KAT | Saric
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Deep Bench - Mitchell | Houstan | Bailey | K Williams | Fernando
PG: SGA | Coleworld
SG: Big Ragu | Merrill
SF: Kuminga | Dorture Chamber
PF: KAT | Saric
C: BroLo | Sharpe
Deep Bench - Mitchell | Houstan | Bailey | K Williams | Fernando
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cmaff051
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Capn'O wrote:Could be - I thought you were directing the guy's accusations that white voters are going to change their tune at posters here. A couple of (presumably) white posters have come in here and defended Obama HARD. I interpreted your meaning to imply that _we_ were the hypocrites and potential turncoats... that the rant was directed at us.
If that wasn't your meaning... my bad.
I want this guy to be president soooo bad and I think you have to believe that those who have taken such a strong alliance are going to stay with him. I understand that for some voters race will be a factor but if Obama continues to look like a strong candidate I'd much rather use my energy to try and win over those on the fence than try to convince people that I'm not going to turn my back on him in the booth.
I am white and I have defended Obama hard during this whole thread. He has been my favorite candidate since Day 1. He will be getting my vote if he is the democratic nominee.