Hollinger's Playoff Odds

[Tom Baker]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

January 6th, 2007 (not sure when Hollinger made his calculations, but it's one today's espn frontpage)

Odds of teams making the Finals

East

Detroit 52.6 %
Boston 46 %
(I remember it being something like Boston 98 % earlier this year)

Orlando 0.6 %
Toronto 0.4 %
Washington 0.3 %
Indy 0.1 %

West

Lakers 25.1 %
Hornets 24.1 %
Phoenix 17.7 %

San Antonio 9.4 %
Dallas 8.5 %

Utah 5 %
Houston 4.2 %

Portland 2.4 %
Golden State 1.9 %
Denver 1.7 %

Much greater parity in the West

So, overall, the best probability is that none of the West's "Big 3" teams will make the Finals and that only Boston and Detroit have a legit shot in the East.

Highest probability goes to a rematch of the 2004 Finals, Detoit vs. Lakers.

[AB_21]

Minnesota has a worst case scenario of 7 wins. Can you imagine a 7 win season?

[garbageman]

this is why they play the games. how is it that the lakers have the best chance of winning the west?? even if they had the best record in the west (which they dont), who would pick them in a 7 game series against san antonio? phoenix? i dont really have any problems with the east, but these predictions for the west are just absurd.

[gniewek]

Very interesting, but I read a similar post a while ago.

[ponder276]

Am I missing something? The link you posted has totally different numbers.

[inrapscity]

I can't believe Lakers and Hornets. How in the world did he calculate that one?

[jim rockford]

probably stating the obvious, but it seems to be almost completely correlated with current record, except that san antonio is alot lower than teams it has same record as.... and from math perspective, i would think it would good to bet on some of the eastern teams at those prices as boston/detroit can always have injury problems (and other problems). but i assure you that vegas isn't offering 130 to 1 (or whatever the reciprocal was) on rapts making finals.