Horford and Smoove

[FCNATL85]

Felton - AJ -Lue
JJ - Salim*- Mario
Marvin - Chill
Horford- Shelden
Okafor- LoW- Salomon

I prefer this starting five...


*(if we use Salim! if not we need to trade for Rush or sign Hayes during the off season.)

[CAM]

Well you want to say who has the most potential for volume scoring thats different from saying who is the most efficient scorer is. Childress has a 66.5 True Shooting Percentage. Thats absolutely a massive number for a Small Forward. (4th highest in the league) For comparison marvin is 58.7. Childress is quietly having a very productive season.

The question wasn't who the best starter at SF is or who has the potential to be the best scorer in the league. Just who the most efficient scorer is and I think thats Childress by a pretty significant margin. Not a slam on Marvin at all- Childress is just a pretty remarkable player in this area.

I was just mentioning Marvins offensive efficiency and potential as the most obvious points for not tweaking with our starting frontcourt, hence I feel he is our best starting 3 for now and going forward.

[tontoz]

Because Diop is an offensive Liabilty and I don't see that improving.

Which is exactly why he should start. When he is on the court with 4 other guys who can score his lack of offense is less of a problem.

It isn't like Horford is putting on an offensive show anyway. he is having a tough time getting shots with the starters. If he plays with the backups then he can get more shots.

Why do you think Manu comes off the bench? is it because he isn't good enough to start?

No it is because the team gets more production out of Manu and Barry when Barry starts.

In starting Horford at C, we have a more rounded, athletic player who compliments the other starting frontcourt players well.

How does he complement Smith? He is undersized just like Smith.

Plus starting Horford at center has taken him out of some games very quickly with foul trouble.

[conleyorbust]

Well you want to say who has the most potential for volume scoring thats different from saying who is the most efficient scorer is. Childress has a 66.5 True Shooting Percentage. Thats absolutely a massive number for a Small Forward. (4th highest in the league) For comparison marvin is 58.7. Childress is quietly having a very productive season.

The question wasn't who the best starter at SF is or who has the potential to be the best scorer in the league. Just who the most efficient scorer is and I think thats Childress by a pretty significant margin. Not a slam on Marvin at all- Childress is just a pretty remarkable player in this area.

I wasn't saying Marv is a more efficient scorer, he's obviously not, he just helps open things up for the other guys more because he can shoot very accurately from some range. Chil is great at what he does and I hope we can keep him around but I think Marv would benefit quite a bit from a good point gaurd too, he is never hit coming off of screens and really should be because he has such a great J.

[killbuckner]

COB- CAM was the one saying that marvin had become the Hawks most efficient scorer.

[CAM]

I don't have a problem with Horfords lack of shots, but why reduce the possibility of having some sort of offensive production from our starting C by starting Diop?

Right now I don't care if Horford gets more shots, but at the moment he is effiecient on offense, and effecient enough on defence and will get better as the season/years go on.

Manu comes off the bench because the Spurs have ample experienced and/or adequete backups and role players to spread the quality of players around. We don't. We are a team built on youth/athletesicm and potential. I would want a starting lineup to reflect that.

Horford compliments our whole starting 5 through his athletecism/ flexible game/ quickness at his position/ ability to start, lead, run, throw an outlet on a fast break. Diop would just get the board and dish off to the nearest man to him.

I'd love to have Diop on the team. I don't think he would be the best option starting instead of Horford.

---------

I still think Marvin is overall our most 'efficient' scorer, because I am taking into account how he scores, how much he scores and when he scores.

Childress is efficient in the accuracy of which he scores, but none of his scoring ever carries the load in any way. It usually comes at times when we are already down by lots.

[tontoz]

I don't have a problem with Horfords lack of shots, but why reduce the possibility of having some sort of offensive production from our starting C by starting Diop?

Because what matters is the TOTAL points from the center spot. We would get more total points from the center spot by having horford coming off the bench because he would get more shots.

Why would you want Diop in the game playing with the subs who don't score as well as the starters? That would make his lack of offense a much bigger liability.

Manu comes off the bench because the Spurs have ample experienced and/or adequete backups and role players to spread the quality of players around.

No. They do it to get the most TOTAL production from the 2 spot. Finley needs to be set up for scores. therefore he is more effective playing with Parker and Duncan.

Ginobili can create his own shot easily so it doesn't matter to him whether Duncan or Parker are in the game with him. he can still create his own offense and will get more shots per minute playing with the bench players because he will be the primary offensive option.

McHale was one of the best post scorers in history but came off the bench for a big part of his career because that is what was best for the team. Gordan has always done better off the bench.

[killbuckner]

CAM- variety, volume. and clutchness have nothing to do with efficiency. Maybe you just want to pick a different term. Maybe you think he is the most effective scorer, or the most useful scorer, or the most consistent scorer. But Childress is one of the most efficient scorers in the league. And you are simply using the term incorrectly if you are using all those other reasons as part of your calculation.

[CAM]

Lets start Shelden at the 4 and bring Smith off the bench then, because would surely tear it up against a teams second unit?

I understand your idea behind shaping your rotations to maximize production at each positions. But I feel overall, when weighing up what the two players do, I would prefer to have Horford, and his lack of inneficiencies playing along side our teams strgonest unit.

I feel that Diop playing alongside players like Josh Smith and Marvin Williams would remove any sort of running style that we have. Horford is very good at this and would be less effective trying to score in transition with Shelden/Zaza/Chill/Lue etc.

[CAM]

CAM- variety, volume. and clutchness have nothing to do with efficiency. Maybe you just want to pick a different term. Maybe you think he is the most effective scorer, or the most useful scorer, or the most consistent scorer. But Childress is one of the most efficient scorers in the league. And you are simply using the term incorrectly if you are using all those other reasons as part of your calculation.

Fair enough. But I dind't start this to argue who was more effecient. I just wanted to say that Marvin should be our starting 3 now and going forward. Once of the reasons for this is his Offensive game, be it useful, consistent or efficient.

I dind't mean it as a stat comparason, because in regards to 'scoring efficiency' as a stat, Chill is right up there in the league, oviously ahead of Marvin.

[killbuckner]

Right now Horford is a defensive center who doesn't provide much offense but also doesn't block many shots. Generally when you have a defensive center without much offense you are counting on them to block alot of shots and affect the other teams offense where they have to settle for more jumpers, Horford doesn't have that kind of defensive presence. Realistically you would be counting on Horford to make up some of those points on offense against the slower centers but we just haven't seen that out of him to this point.

But as much as Horford has been a nonfactor on offense, Diop is in a whole nother class. Horford doesn't score much and turns the ball over quite a bit for the number of touches he gets. Diop scores even less and turns the ball over even more which is pretty tough to do.

[CAM]

But we are talking about next season and beyond. I can see Hordford improving alot at the things you mention.

I don't know if Diop can get any better than he is right now? I see him peaking out at 4.5ppg 6.5 rpg and 2 bpg because of limited potential, and his minutes would be limited because of such deficiencies.

Horford is smart, from a good system, young and a rookie, learning the NBA game. The points/blocks will increase in the next two years, the turnovers should go down.

[killbuckner]

Oh- I wouldn't ever start Diop over Horford.

But if Horford doesn't improve his offense then they should be looking to trade him. At this level of offense there are simply guys who will provide the defense/rebounding with the same level of offense and will throw in some shotblocking, and have far less trade value than Horford.

But this is not at all to say that Horford won't develop that offensive game- the guy is just a rookie and he is playing out of position. But right now Horford is playing as a defense/rebounding/no offense center and I am not sure thats how people are seeing him right now. As I have said a few times, Horford is producing at almost exactly the same rate this year as Shelden did last year. Its just something that fans need to start paying attention to I think.

[CAM]

^^ I just plain disagree. Horford is producing better rebounding consistancy and better man defence than Shelden did last year.

I don't think Horford is viewed as a defense/rebounding/ no offense center. I think he is viewed as a defense/rebounding/ offensive potential center. He has shown heaps more on offensive so far than Shelden ever has or ever will.

Who are these guys you speak of that can provide the same level of defense/rebounding not to mention shotblocking? And would any of them have the potential to improve in those categories as Horford does?

But thank you for agreeing that Diop should not start over Hordord.

[killbuckner]

CAM- Shelden's rebound rate last season was 17.3, Horford's is 17.8. Yeah its a difference but isn't statistically significant at this point. Shelden was a very strong rebounder last season who provided solid man defense with about the same blocked shot rate as Horford. No clue why Shelden's rebounding has collapsed this season but the difference in production from Shelden last year to Hoford this year is not worth the incredible difference in trade value they have. (Once again- thats not shelden to this year vs what horford might be, just shelden last year to horford this year)

But no- Horford hasn't shown "heaps more on offense than Shelden has or will". The fact is that Horford is scoring this season at a slightly lower rate than Shelden did last season and is turning the ball over slightly more. Not that Shelden outplayed Horford on offense, just that its blatantly untrue that Horford has shown a ton more on offense this season.

CAM- a guy like Brendan Haywood is a defense/rebounding/shotblocking center who could be had for a fraction of what Horford is worth. Sean Williams and Dalembert are in the same category. As I have repeatedly said, this is the comparison for if Horford continues to produce on offense at the same rate he does now. The hope needs to be that Horford will produce more on offense than a guy like Haywood or Williams to offset for the shotblocking that these guys provide. It simply hasn't been there so far and it is becoming an issue people need to start paying attention to. And maybe this would be different if the team had a legit PG and Horford was getting more points in transition or if he were playing PF instead of center. But the fact remains that when Horfords offense is at these levels then he needs to be measured defensively against the centers who are producing at the same rate. Horford's offense right now is in the Dalembert, Sean Williams, Tyson Chandler, Rasho Nesterovic range. I am not at all trying to say he doesn't have the potential to improve his offensive numbers, just that when a center provides this level of offense they better be a pretty outstanding defender to be a help to the team.

[tontoz]

Lets start Shelden at the 4 and bring Smith off the bench then, because would surely tear it up against a teams second unit?

Completely nonsensical comment.

First of all Shelden isn't a defensive specialist. Secondly Smith doesn't have any problem getting enough shots. Horford does.

I see him peaking out at 4.5ppg 6.5 rpg and 2 bpg because of limited potential,

Diops rebounding rate is 11.55 per 40 minutes. Horfords is 12.4. Sure there is a difference but it isn't a huge one.

Diops shotblocking rate is 2.93 per 40 minutes. Horfords is less than half that.

Not to mention that Horford has struggled against bigger players. he has gotten in foul trouble repeatedly and has struggled defending guys like Dampier and Haywood who aren't even scorers.


If you have a defensive specialist at center it is only logical to

a) play him against the best scorers on the other team

and

b) play him with the best scorers on your team.

Dallas is giving up 6.9 fewer ppg when Diop plays. The Hawks are giving up .7 ppg more when Horford plays.

[Rip2137]

You guys love to use stats that don't matter.

Per 40 mintues...who cares?

Basketball is not all about stats that you can just throw around to determine if a player is good or not.

Anyone that watches basketball is not going to tell me that Sheldon and Horford are playing pretty much the same last year and this one. Horford has been a game changer in statless catagories. he does a decent and sometimes great job denying bigs the ball, boxing out so they don't get the board, hustle plays, challenging shots tipping out rebounds, Keeping the D honest with his ability to consistantly hit that midrange jumper, running the court which can lead to easy points even if you don't touch the ball, what I like to call hockey assist where he makes the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the score...all of that. There is no way anyone watching this team could think that we aren't significantly better with Horford on the court.

His offense is better and more defined than Dwight Howards when he came in the league and he is showing the same rebounding promise and I saw a suggestion of looking to trade him if he doesn't start scoring more?

Horford is oozing superstar potential all over the court. You don't start freakin Diop over him for any reason.

And as an aside, you don't have to block alot of shots to be a defensive Center.

[killbuckner]

Rip- the funny thing is that last year everyone here was talking about how Shelden was the guy who contributed on defense in ways that didn't show up in the box scores. THat he would rotate well and was a good man to man defender. Horford doesn't have a monopoly on doing the little things.

And you can say all you want about how Horford affects the game in countless little ways, but right now those little ways aren't showing up in results on the scoreboard. The team isn't doing better with him on the court than they are without him. I am not saying that horford is hurting the team at all, just that you are probably overestimating the impact those little things are having on the actual game. Little things are little for a reason.

And you don't have to block shots to be a good defender, but how many good defense/rebounding/low offense centers are highly in demand that don't block many shots? Teams covet blocked shots because they have the potential for disrupting the opposing offense's gameplan. Horford is fine as long as he is making up for this on the offensive end. But if horford isn't providing additional offense then he probably is just not suited for that role.

[Rip2137]

Where were these people saying Sheldon did the little things last year? everyone called him garbage.

Nobody said anything about Sheldon being a good man to man defender. I like the guy and he was working harder not to foul when he played major minutes than defending well and he wasn't able to challenge any shots because he didn't get off the floor.

And my point is still that the team is doing better with him on the court than without him. You will no doubt go back to the +/- bullcrap that means nothing and ignore what actually happens on the floor when you watch the game.

But if you are going to legitimately try to argue that this team plays better when Horford goes to the bench for Zaza and Sheldon...I don't really know what I can tell ya. I don't care what +/- says. If you are trying to say that he is having pretty much the same impact as sheldon had last year, once again...thats just ridiculous.

[tontoz]

You don't start freakin Diop over him for any reason.

Yes you do. One reason you do it is to keep Horford out of foul trouble.

right now Horford is 7th in the league in fouls per game. The reason for that isn't just because he is a rookie. It is because he is undersized battling much bigger players.

Amare has the same problem. Amare is 4th in the league in fouls per game even though he plays only 31 minutes.

What did Horford do against Shaq and Howard? He collected splinters on the bench.