The case for not trading either PG this year

[djthesonicsfan]

Let me start by saying I've been among the most insistent of those who believe the Sonics should trade a PG in order to stabilize the rotation, settle team chemistry and clear future cap space. In fact, I had gotten to the point that I didn't care if L Ridnour or E Watson or even both were traded. That's because IMO the long term PG is coming in next June's draft (hoping it's the guy to left) and I think D West is the right combo guard to provide 15-18 quality minutes off the bench.

But then the Tacoma News Tribune released an article the other day stating that "Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson and West all are auditioning for the starting point guard position in an ongoing evaluation period that will last until the end of the season." At first I thought that was merely Presti posturing via the news media in an attempt to gain negotiating leverage. And maybe it is. But then I started to think about it more.

First of all, what if we don't get a PG in the draft next June? The way the Heat, Knicks, Timberwolves, Grizzlies & Clippers are tanking it's entirely possible, maybe even probable, that the Sonics 1st pick winds up being #4 to #7. Would either Derrick Rose or Jarryd Bayless still be available then? Maybe. But probably not. There are other PGs available. UCLA's Darren Collison, Texas' DJ Augustin and European's Goran Dragic & Rodrigue Beaubois are next best. But few think those PGs would be capable of starting and leading a team right away. And at least a couple of those PGs will probably still be available when the Sonics use the Phoenix 1st round pick.

In this scenario (a #4 - #7 pick) could the Sonics trade up to get either Derrick Rose or Jerryd Bayless using their extra 1st round pick or a player as incentive? It would depend on the teams with the higher pick. And I'm thinking the Heat, Knicks & Timberwolves all need a top flight PG. Maybe even the Clippers if S Livingston doesn't recover. So probably not. Besides, trading up would cost the Sonics a core player.

So would the Sonics select a player other than a PG? They might. There are two top tier SGs in this draft as well. Eric Gordon and OJ Mayo. Not to mention the European Nicolas Batum. If both Derrick Rose and Jerryd Bayless were already gone, it might make sense to pick one of these SGs as the next best basketball player available. A player that could start right away on a young & developing team. In this scenario Kevin Durant and Jeff Green slide over to SF & PF, respectively. Positions that a lot of folks think they're best suited to play in the long run. And Chris Wilcox is either traded or plays center if Robert Swift doesn't make the grade. But the hole at PG would remain.

Which brings us full circle right back to either L Ridnour or E Watson. We might need them. Or at least one of them. So why trade them? It's not like there's going to be any unrestricted free agent available this summer the Sonics want and could afford even if they cleared $6M cap space. And knowledgable Sonics fans have argued endlessly over which one is better suited for the team. But we've a brand new team. The chemistry is way different than last year. Why not let them fight it out to see who wins?

So now I've actually changed my mind. Unless some great offer comes along, I think we should keep both L Ridnour & E Watson. At least until the lottery selection order is determined.


Fire at will.

[sonic-ben]

all depends on what the trade offer is... have to judge on each individual offer

[Sockin'Foes]

all depends on what the trade offer is... have to judge on each individual offer

Would you trade Watson or Ridnour for an expiring?
(assume the incoming player would be bought out)

[BBen]

I see the logic in what you say. I also think the Sonics will finish the season stronger than how they started. We've played all the good teams tough up until now, what's to stop us from starting to win a few?

Therefore, the draft starts to look less and less sure as far as our position goes. My thought is that one always has to take the top talent and disregard position (Kevin Durant picked after Greg Oden? Hakeem and Bowie? Robert Swift? Johan Petro? Andrew Bogut?). Of course, point guards have to come from somewhere, but unless you have a top 3 pick a point guard is usually a risky pick even in the lottery (Mateen Cleaves anyone?).

Also, I'd much rather keep a veteran as a starting point guard on a young team. Invariably young pgs destabilize offenses early in their career. I don't mind a rookie in every other slot if that's in the cards.

As far as trading Ridnour goes, we couldn't get full value for him anyway since he looks like damaged goods this season. Worst case scenario, keep him under contract until he expires. It doesn't hurt us in any way especially since when he's healthy he's injury insurance if nothing else.

Watson? I never liked him much and I haven't been able to watch him play this year. However, his stats have seemed to finally stabilize in a starting role. Why not let him try the rest of the year? He's always believed he should be a starter and I like the fact that he seems to want to prove it. He has stood up to the pressure whereas Wilkins didn't.

[D5150]

i really dont think the point guard situation will be adressed this year (other than the continued "evaluation" of the three guys). however, in the random trade thread, a trade involving watson and petro for bobby jackson was proposed and i think that is an interesting idea. the hornets want to bolster their bench and seattle saves a year on watsons deal. i would also think the hornets would have to send a pick seattles way. that might be something i would do. anyway, unless a great offer comes along i think the supes stand pat at point right now.

[djthesonicsfan]

Would you trade Watson or Ridnour for an expiring?

Before I started thinking about this entire matter my answer would've been yes. Even both of them. Especially if it involved the Heat and getting back J Williams' expiring contract. Now my answer is no. Just expiring contracts are not enough. Because expiring contracts will not significantly benefit the team. There are no 2008 unrestricted free agents the Sonics want that the extra $6M would enable them to sign. And we might need those PGs.

a trade involving watson and petro for bobby jackson was proposed and i think that is an interesting idea. the hornets want to bolster their bench and seattle saves a year on watsons deal. i would also think the hornets would have to send a pick seattles way. that might be something i would do. anyway, unless a great offer comes along i think the supes stand pat at point right now.

That's the question, isn't it? What's a great offer? IMO I could see bundling a PG with J Petro or D Wilkins in return for an expiring, but I would require a prospect or a 1st round pick, or at least a swap of their 1st round pick for our 2nd round pick. Something like that, or it's just simply no deal. Similar to the K Thomas scenario. The great thing about the Sonics situation right now is that we don't have to make a trade. We're not going anywhere this season. Contending teams are the ones that need to make trades.

[D5150]

that is absolutly right dj. the sonics are dealing from a position of power right now. if they do nothing at all, in the next 2 years they have 3 first round picks, a bunch of second round picks, big expiring deals, and some pretty nice rookies to build around. and i wouldnt even be too concerned about getting a point in next years draft. if the sonics loose out on rose, there are still plenty of players at other positions that could help. and dont forget, another decent pg will be available in the 09 draft, ricky rubio. not to mention the cap space the sonics could have in 09. i just dont think the sonics should get in a hurry to do anything (except get the arena issue resolved) they need to be paitent, wait out the current powerhouse teams out west, and wait their turn. i think portland is setting the perfect example of how to build a contender. follow that blueprint.

[Det the Threat]

I see the logic in what you say. I also think the Sonics will finish the season stronger than how they started. We've played all the good teams tough up until now, what's to stop us from starting to win a few?

Therefore, the draft starts to look less and less sure as far as our position goes.

I don't think the Draft looks way different then we though before the season, cause i believe that we'll still be in the bottom five(i expect either Miami or New York to make a run some time during the rest of the season and falling out of the top 5), after everything is said and done.

We've hade one of the easiest schedules of all teams so far and need to get better, if we want to win some games the rest of the way.
The month of January ain't gonna be easy, we'll start the month of March with a 7 game road trip and we're only playing, what seems like playoff teams(with a nice Texas Triangle visit, while also hosting Dallas and Houston) in April, with the exception of the Los Angeles Clippers.
http://www.nba.com/sonics/schedule/

So looking at that, i expect us to win something between 20 - 25 games and finishing somewhere around 3rd - 5th worst record of this league, giving us a good shot at one of the top picks, just like last year.

BTW: As far as trading our pg's goes.
I think Presti might very well hold onto them, because it seems like there's hardly a market out there for them and he probably won't get what he likes in return. They're also more easy to trade this summer, when they'll only have 2 years left on their deals.
Though, i'd be happy with a trade that "only" gets us an expiring for Watson or Ridnour back, because i think we'd be better off that way. Oh, and there'll always be those Anthony Johnson's, Tyron Lue's, Chris Duhon's etc. available, if you want a vet pg on your team, and they wouldn't cost as much as Ridnour or Watson(which is the biggest problem with them).

[djthesonicsfan]

As far as trading our pg's goes. I think Presti might very well hold onto them, because it seems like there's hardly a market out there for them and he probably won't get what he likes in return. They're also more easy to trade this summer, when they'll only have 2 years left on their deals. Though, i'd be happy with a trade that "only" gets us an expiring for Watson or Ridnour back, because i think we'd be better off that way. Oh, and there'll always be those Anthony Johnson's, Tyron Lue's, Chris Duhon's etc. available, if you want a vet pg on your team, and they wouldn't cost as much as Ridnour or Watson(which is the biggest problem with them).

I find that I am changing my mind constantly on this subject. There's a point of view on rebuilding an NBA team that says it can only happen once all the bad contracts are gone. Well that's E Watson & L Ridnour if the decision is they're not the long term starting PG. And you're point is taken regarding the availability of serviceable PGs with short contracts. On the other hand there's a case to be made for less roster churn, better chemistry. But maybe a few trades, made within a short time period near the deadline, makes for a new season to a young team.

In the end, I guess it'll be interesting to see what happens. There are a number of paths the Sonics can take to arrive at "contending in 2009/10".

[bigballajohn]

my belief in this is that if the sonics do trade for gasol by using wlicox and ridnour, then get one of the many pgs in this upcomin draft, they could have a very dangerous lineup, also considering the 8 mil of cap space they get when thomas' contract expires.

pg- rose, bayless, augustine, collison, or whoever they pick
sg- durant
sf- green
pf- gasol
c- 2008 free agent

this team could compete if presti can hopefully get lucky with the trade market and lottery

[S0yb3anB0y]

I am one of those fans that believe we should trade for a PG. Why? Because I believe in drafting the BPA when you have the top 5 pick. The kid from Texas A&M is the next making of D12. I prefer to draft him over any PG in this coming up draft.

[D5150]

you mean jordan? i dont know, its a little early to say he is the next howard. just because nba drat.net says so dont mean it is so.

[S0yb3anB0y]

you mean jordan? i dont know, its a little early to say he is the next howard. just because nba drat.net says so dont mean it is so.

DeAndre is a huge upgrade over any of our big men including Collison/Wilcox.

[D5150]

^^^^

you sure about that? he is the "big upside potential" guy in the draft. i'm not ready to call him a "huge" upgrade over anyone just yet.

[nwsports253]

Jordan isnt a upgrade, maybe down the road a couple years yes but now no and probably not even next year. He would just be another project Center.