Game 34: Atlanta VS Denver Game Thread
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well this will add fuel to the fire for people who think that I hate the Hawks. But the bodog line was Denver + 2.5 which just seems incredibly wrong to me. I don't think the Hawks have anyone who can match up with either Iverson or Melo. (on the other side JJ is a very tough matchup for Denver as well) I just think that Iverson is going to spend all game penetrating at will. Denver's defense is based on not giving up many FT attempts and letting teams try and hurt them with 3 pointers. The Hawks rely on getting to the line and are a lousy 3 point shooting team. The Hawks don't look for offense from Horford which will let Camby roam around on defense all he wants to. And the Hawks front line players aren't any more atheltic than the opposing front line for once. This just seems like a brutal matchup for the Hawks overall. So yeah- I just bet money against the Hawks for tonight.
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conleyorbust wrote:This could be a fun game to watch... they were last year. Strange note: Atlanta is ranked number 8 in the league in total defense (points allowed per 100 possessions), Denver? 6. So that's odd. They are also ranked at 14 in total offense which is suprising because you think of Denver as an all score - no defend type of team. Anyway, they had actually been holding teams down even better earlier in the season but PHX scored 137 on them the other night which didn't help their rankings.
Anyway, we should take a page out of Gerald Wallace's book tonight. He went 13-24 with 10-15 FTs but all of his shots were either 3s or at the rim. He got 4 of his shots blocked but that's what happens when you play a front line like Denver's. If Josh and Marv can get some spacing from Joe (big "if"), I can see them getting to the rim against Denver's forwards. Those guys are very good at finishing against shotblockers too. Joe's shot falling should help too, if he is playing against AI for a significant portion, he's gonna get burned some but he can't let it affect him on the other end. Iverson can't bother his shot if Joe is feeling it.
Our D against them is gonna be a little tougher, Iverson is such a big matchup problem for us because AJ is slow and Law is too much of a rookie. Lets hope Woody and co. can come up with a good scheme to force AI into some shots he doesn't have a good chance of making, or at least let AI have his way to the detriment of the Nuggets (may be our best chance).
I'm glad someone brought this up. Denver is playing MUCH better D this season. People just look at PA and that is a misleading stat when you're talking about teams that run up and down the floor.
I'm worried about A.I. We have enough trouble stopping any PG from getting into he lane, imagine what he will do. I agree with Tontoz, I'd like to see Rio on A.I.
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killbuckner wrote:well this will add fuel to the fire for people who think that I hate the Hawks. But the bodog line was Denver + 2.5 which just seems incredibly wrong to me. I don't think the Hawks have anyone who can match up with either Iverson or Melo. (on the other side JJ is a very tough matchup for Denver as well) I just think that Iverson is going to spend all game penetrating at will. Denver's defense is based on not giving up many FT attempts and letting teams try and hurt them with 3 pointers. The Hawks rely on getting to the line and are a lousy 3 point shooting team. The Hawks don't look for offense from Horford which will let Camby roam around on defense all he wants to. And the Hawks front line players aren't any more atheltic than the opposing front line for once. This just seems like a brutal matchup for the Hawks overall. So yeah- I just bet money against the Hawks for tonight.
I don't necessarilly disagree that its a bad matchup on paper, but you are oversimplifying things by a lot. For one its a home game where the Hawks are pretty good this season whereas the Nuggets are suprisingly bad on the road. For two, the Nuggets are on the second night of a back to back so their guys probably aren't in the best condition for a game against an athletic team. That is compounded by the fact that the Nuggets have become one of the thinnest benches in the NBA... honestly they make the Hawks look deep because we have one player who can make significant contributions off the bench. The Nuggets front line actually isn't more athletic than the Hawk's, K-Mart is a shadow of his former self. He has been reduced to playing less than half an hour a game and he played 35 minutes last night so don't expect him to dominate or even put up his unimposing 9.6 and 6 that he averages on the season (not that he won't but it is unlikely).
Iverson is a mismatch but like you said, so is Joe. A victory might depend on Joe's shot falling tonight, it fell the other night against Chi but he has been streaky as hell lately. If he can get it going against a guy like AI that doesn't really have a shot at slowing him down than the Hawks are gonna be a tough matchup.
If the Hawks run, which they can against another fast paced - poor rebounding team like Denver, than Atlanta's front line will be hard to stop. So like I said, I'm not necessarilly predicting a win but you looked at the starting lineup of Denver and said, "bad matchup" without looking at their depth and injured starters.
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killbuckner wrote:well this will add fuel to the fire for people who think that I hate the Hawks. But the bodog line was Denver + 2.5 which just seems incredibly wrong to me. I don't think the Hawks have anyone who can match up with either Iverson or Melo. (on the other side JJ is a very tough matchup for Denver as well) I just think that Iverson is going to spend all game penetrating at will. Denver's defense is based on not giving up many FT attempts and letting teams try and hurt them with 3 pointers. The Hawks rely on getting to the line and are a lousy 3 point shooting team. The Hawks don't look for offense from Horford which will let Camby roam around on defense all he wants to. And the Hawks front line players aren't any more atheltic than the opposing front line for once. This just seems like a brutal matchup for the Hawks overall. So yeah- I just bet money against the Hawks for tonight.
In the 12 hours or so after I posted the line it moved a whole point. We're actually giving 3 at the LV Hilton. People must be betting that Denver isn't full strength.
Going to donkey punch a leprechaun!
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