Playoff seeding insanity watch

impulsenine · Post #1 » by **impulsenine** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:27 am

We're not quite halfway through the season, but the West's top 8 teams are in such a bunch it's hard not to think about them. I'd expect this at the beginning of the season, but with 38 games played you'd think there'd be more of a spread.

Just the other day, with our L.A. win, we went from 5th or 6th (can't remember) to first... with one game.

If we went 4-4 on a road trip (which is certainly possible; our L10 is 7-3), and the 7th, 8th, and 9th seeds did well, we would be out of the playoffs. I'm not saying we won't make the playoffs - obviously, we will, and we'll have a good seed, too. But I'm not sure I've ever seen it this close.

-SDU- · Post #2 » by **-SDU-** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:30 am

its just absolute madness

spurs 8 and 10 in their last 18 games

we went from 6th to first with our win over the lakers

i think it will even out though, and i still doubt portland make the playoffs and expect the jazz to get in at portlands expense

DEEP3CL · Post #3 » by **DEEP3CL** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:37 am

Good topic, yeah it is crazy how it's all muddled up. I guess it's going to be like musical chairs for the next couple of weeks.

DEEP3CL · Post #4 » by **DEEP3CL** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:41 am

-SDU- wrote:its just absolute madness

spurs 8 and 10 in their last 18 games

we went from 6th to first with our win over the lakers

i think it will even out though, and i still doubt portland make the playoffs and expect the jazz to get in at portlands expense

Portland has been strong at home though. Utah is erratic as ever and their bench is thin. I say Blazers make it.

sarah42 · Post #5 » by **sarah42** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:56 am

utah is just as good as home, while portland sucks just as bad away from home.

gotta remember, most of their run was at home, and for whatever reason, utah hasn't played too many home games. they've also been playing better lately, while the blazers have cooled off. i think they went 2-3 on the road recently. but in the east! that won't cut it!

and utah is only 2 games behind them, and they have the clippers next! i just can't believe that both utah and houston won't make it.
the warriors look good too. it will be interesting.

the spurs really are screwing it up for other teams like the suns, hornets. they really need to beat the lesser teams to create a gap for us!

like my logic? seriously, some team has to give!

nevetsov · Post #6 » by **nevetsov** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:43 pm

In all fairness, a lot of the games the Spurs have lost they started Duncan at center and and Horry at the PF, much like we do with Amare and Shawn. I wonder if, during that stretch, that they encountered the same problems associated with small ball that we do on a game by game basis? (Rebounding, foul trouble etc). Might have to go back and have a look at some of those box scores..

Back on topic, I think the west will end up looking something like this:

Suns
Dallas
Hornets ( I REALLY hope they can hold off the spurs)
Nuggets
Spurs
Houston
Lakers
Utah/ Golden State/ Portland

Will be a tough road if we have to go through Golden State, San Antonio and Dallas

But then again, it's going to be tough on any team this year.

As far as the east goes:

Boston
Detroit
Orlando
Toronto
Cleveland

I think are pretty set. After that I think it's anyone's ballgame out of

*Charlotte (finally looking like they're hitting their stride)
*New Jersey
*Washington
Atlanta
Chicago

I think there's still a solid chance that Atlanta misses the playoffs and the pick is a lottery pick. After that, who knows where it could land, it could be 1-3 or 11-14..

Christine-In-AZ · Post #7 » by **Christine-In-AZ** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:17 pm

The scary thing to me beyond the crazy tightness of the top 8, is that the two teams on the outside looking in are Utah and Houston. Shoe ins for the playoffs before the season started! Any team in the west is in danger of being left out with just one star player going down to injury...even just a bad 3 week ankle sprain to a Nash or a Bryant or a Baron Davis type leader could be enough to push them out of the playoffs.

(now knocking on wood)

impulsenine · Post #8 » by **impulsenine** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:46 pm

First team with a losing record in the East is #7.
First team with a losing record in the West is #11.

Will be a tough road if we have to go through Golden State, San Antonio and Dallas

If we have to do that, I say we get four trophies, one for each round.

a lot of the games the Spurs have lost they started Duncan at center and and Horry at the PF

I brought this up in the Spurs' forum.

Spurs forum

Seattlesun · Post #9 » by **Seattlesun** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:07 pm

^^^ bringing something up in the spurs forum guarantees no one will ever read it, they get about 3 hits a week...

The Spurs issue is offense, they no longer get those inevitable 4 straight 3 pointer barrages in the mid to late 4th qtr they have relied on. the age is starting to show. for all the negativity around the suns, the spurs are who people should be questioning. they have played by far the NBA's easiest schedule with just 14 road games thus far.

mkot · Post #10 » by **mkot** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:50 pm

Well, the Spurs looked bad last January too. What happened? Spurs fans ain't worry, they're still as cocky as they were before and the media still like them to win it all because it was believed that this team can flip the switch whenever they want to. I think once Pop settles his rotation down and they come back from the rodeo trip we'll know a lot more. It's too early to judge this team now because they're a veteran/old team.

impulsenine · Post #11 » by **impulsenine** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:06 am

Dang geezers.

Of course, we're the second-oldest team in the league, next to them.

Seattlesun · Post #12 » by **Seattlesun** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:30 am

^^^ thats just because Pike is 56...

myron · Post #13 » by **myron** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:42 am

imagine if the spurs miss the finals... lol

impulsenine · Post #14 » by **impulsenine** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:35 am

myron wrote:imagine if the spurs miss the playoffs... lol

Fixed.

I was about to say it would be like what happened to the Heat, who barely scraped into the playoffs the year after they won the championship, but on second thought, the meltdown in Miami is so spectacular that I wouldn't want to insult the Spurs that way.

impulsenine · Post #15 » by **impulsenine** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:40 am

Check out STAT's seasonal stats. He's now playing somewhere between '03-'04 and '04-'05, but with significant improvements over both in blocks, even though he's playing 5 fewer minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/s ... atsId=3607

myron · Post #16 » by **myron** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:42 am

impulsenine wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Fixed.

I was about to say it would be like what happened to the Heat, who barely scraped into the playoffs the year after they won the championship, but on second thought, the meltdown in Miami is so spectacular that I wouldn't want to insult the Spurs that way.

heh... that's the australian in me.

nevetsov · Post #17 » by **nevetsov** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:54 pm

Pfft, if the spurs were in the lottery Stern would probably rig it so they get the #1 pick..

impulsenine · Post #18 » by **impulsenine** » Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:41 pm

nevetsov wrote:Pfft, if the spurs were in the lottery Stern would probably rig it so they get the #1 pick..

Hasn't that already happened twice already?

HootieRules · Post #19 » by **HootieRules** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 8:28 pm

Waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyy too early, but here's about how I think it'll shake out

Phoenix
Dallas
New Orleans
Utah
San Antonio
Los Angeles
Houston
Denver

The Hornets are really the wildcard in this. Their road record is insane right now and I think barring injuries they will have a really good record. If San Antonio finishes 3rd in that division that's flirting with disaster for Suns fans because that would mean another 2nd round matchup. At some point Utah and Houston will get it together. Utah is only 1.5 games out of the division lead. You could probably flip-flop Denver and Golden State for the 8th spot, all depends on injuries. If Baron Davis goes down for even a week or two I think it'll kill Golden State and based on history that's prolly going to happen. Either way, I'd much rather play a team like those two than LA, Houston or Utah in the 1st round.

impulsenine · Post #20 » by **impulsenine** » Wed Jan 23, 2008 10:33 pm

Worst-case scenario:

1 Dallas
2 Phoenix
3 San Antonio
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 Los Angeles
8 -

With those positions, we would have to go through L.A., then San Antonio, and then Dallas, and then the Finals (probably with Detroit or Boston; we don't know how hard that is, yet).

The ideal would be to go through Portland, Golden State and perhaps Dallas?