As rusty as it is.. The Bulls Beat is back

[dougthonus]

Just wanted to drop an FYI to any loyal listeners, I'm going to try to do a weekly podcast on Tuesday mornings, as I have a pretty consistent time slot to do it then.

So if you are into that kind of thing, enjoy, and if you thought I sucked before, well, I haven't gotten any better.

Unfortunately for someone, the party will end, as I have new theme music as well ;)

Bulls Beat #20

[Mapelgleaf]

Will BenB or that wacky British fellow be joining the fold or just you solo doug?

[Ben]

It was too hard on Doug to patch us all together. I think that the solo thing is probably WAY easier to do. But I'll be there listening.

[bullzman23]

Good podcast Doug. Agreed with most of the things you said.

The only thing I'd disagree (slightly) with was your comment at the beginning about lotto picks. You're right, there's obviously a difference between the 1st and 12th pick, however, there is a lot of value to be had in the 7-12 range (currently we're at 10). For example:

2006
Randy Foye (7)
Rudy Gay (8 )

2005
Charlie Vilanueva (7)
Andrew Bynum (10)
Danny Granger (17)

2004
Luol Deng (7)
Andre Igoudala (9)
Andris Biedrins (11)
Josh Smith (17)

2003
Kirk Hinrich (7)
TJ Ford (8 )
David West (18)

2002
Nene (7)
Chris Wilcox (8 )
Amare Stoudamire (9)
Caron Butler (10)
Tayshaun Prince (23)

2001
Joe Johnson (10)
Richard Jefferson (13)
Zac Randolph (19)

2000
Jamal Crawford (8 )
Hedo Turkaglu (16)

1999
Andre Miller (8 )
Shawn Marion (9)
Jason Terry (10)
Corey Maggette (13)
Ron Artest (16)

1998
Jason Williams (7)
Larry Hughes (8 )
Dirk Nowitzki (9)
Paul Pierce (10)
Bonzi Wells (11)


So while there are a lot of misses, there's quite a few borderline franchise players and All-Stars available in this range. I think this tends to happen because a lot of the more established players tend to get overlooked because the 'hyped' player gains attention and moves up in the draft. That's why you see guys like Pierce, Butler, Deng etc. fall. Others come out way too early and hurt their stock when they'd likely be high lotto picks if they waited an extra year (Maggette, Randolph, Bynum, J.Smith).

For that reason I think it's pretty advantageous to be in the 7-12 range. This is considered to be a deep draft. I fully expect a similar trend to occur. A lot of people are speculating that Mayo, Gordon, or Jordan could drop into that range. If we make the playoffs and get 14ish pick we may end up with Hansbrough instead.

[kyrv]

I would rather have a lottery pick (since those actually exist).

[Ben]

bullzman, you should take out the high school players from your list of mid-lotto picks b/c teams can no longer draft them. Formerly, they could go somewhat lower in the draft b/c taking them was a risk. But now that's no longer an option. So the really big HS talents play in college and then get drafted very high if they prove themselves excellent.

Further, international players are much more heavily scouted now, so guys like Dirk are extremely unlikely to fall to 9.

#10 can yield a good player, but it's not as easy any more. Good players, yes. Great players, very hard to find.

[dougthonus]

I agree with Ben for the reasons he listed.

HS and International guys are no longer as likely to slip.

You still could get value at #9 or #10. I think if you are past 7 and you get a starting caliber player then you should feel good about your draft.

[bullzman23]

bullzman, you should take out the high school players from your list of mid-lotto picks b/c teams can no longer draft them. Formerly, they could go somewhat lower in the draft b/c taking them was a risk. But now that's no longer an option. So the really big HS talents play in college and then get drafted very high if they prove themselves excellent.

Further, international players are much more heavily scouted now, so guys like Dirk are extremely unlikely to fall to 9.

#10 can yield a good player, but it's not as easy any more. Good players, yes. Great players, very hard to find.

While it's true that HS players are no longer in drafts, the result of their absence should eventually lead to a stronger draft. Either way, there is some recent history that shows that good players still fall (Gay/Foye). Last season was a weak one, it's rare to have consecutive weak drafts. Early indications are that this one seems exceptionally strong. I really believe that having a pick in the 7-12 range in this particular draft will still be incredibly advantageous and probably significantly more valuable than a pick in the 14ish range.

[Ben]

I agree with Ben for the reasons he listed.

HS and International guys are no longer as likely to slip.

You still could get value at #9 or #10. I think if you are past 7 and you get a starting caliber player then you should feel good about your draft.

Right, just like we got value with Noah at #9. That's why you and I were so pleased with him. I do think that he'll be a starting caliber 4/5. In fact I think that he's starting caliber right now, although he needs improvement.

Unfortunately, we seem to be beyond the point where another starting-caliber player is going to elevate us to being an elite team. Rats.

[dougthonus]

Last season was a weak one, it's rare to have consecutive weak drafts. Early indications are that this one seems exceptionally strong. I really believe that having a pick in the 7-12 range in this particular draft will still be incredibly advantageous and probably significantly more valuable than a pick in the 14ish range.

7 yes. 12 no.

Again, this depends a lot on where you think we'll finish up. I do think there is a big difference between a mid lotto pick and pick #15 (lowest non lotto pick).

I even said on the podcast I'd take #10 over #15 even if you miss the playoffs.

[dougthonus]

And, yes, I need to do them solo. Adding one more person to the cast adds about 2 hours to the time it takes to do a 30 minute podcast.

[bullzman23]

Last season was a weak one, it's rare to have consecutive weak drafts. Early indications are that this one seems exceptionally strong. I really believe that having a pick in the 7-12 range in this particular draft will still be incredibly advantageous and probably significantly more valuable than a pick in the 14ish range.

7 yes. 12 no.

Again, this depends a lot on where you think we'll finish up. I do think there is a big difference between a mid lotto pick and pick #15 (lowest non lotto pick).

I even said on the podcast I'd take #10 over #15 even if you miss the playoffs.

You're right you did, I apologize if it came off as if I was saying that you'd take playoffs and 15 over 10. I'm kinda arguing similar points in two different threads now and am probably starting to confuse arguments.

According to Draftexpress we're currently at the 10 spot. With the return of Bibby and Artest, there is reason to believe that the Kings improve. The Bucks are going through hell right now but could easily turn things around (the same could be said about us). If/when Brand (and Livingston) return the Clippers should improve. I could realistically see us falling to the sixth spot. If we decide to make a contract dump (Paxson's favorite type of trade) of Hinrich and Noce we would probably immediately become worse before seeing the improved play of Thomas/Sefolosha/Noah/etc. Also if things continue to go bad for another few weeks, it won't be unquestionable to see Deng shut it down for the season or at least for several weeks to fully heal.

Just speculation on my part. Anyway, I feel like Mayo or Jordan could easily fall into our range.

[Rerisen]

Someone tell me our future is not hinging on the hope we land a superstar in the 7-12 range of the draft?

[Thabo!]

Bullsbeat!!!

[dougthonus]

Someone tell me our future is not hinging on the hope we land a superstar in the 7-12 range of the draft?

Well I made the point that our future best hinges on keeping a solid team together that's cap efficient until 2010 and hoping to lure one of the stud FAs to our team.

If that doesn't work then I think we wont' have much shot at a title until we dismantle again or unless we get really lucky in some other fashion.

[HINrichPolice]

Just wanted to drop an FYI to any loyal listeners, I'm going to try to do a weekly podcast on Tuesday mornings, as I have a pretty consistent time slot to do it then.

So if you are into that kind of thing, enjoy, and if you thought I sucked before, well, I haven't gotten any better.

Unfortunately for someone, the party will end, as I have new theme music as well

Bulls Beat #20

Sadly that party has ended. But if it brings back BullsBeat, I'm all for it! Welcome back.

[Action Paxson]

Great work Doug! I agree with most of what you said. One thing you said of teams making trades just to make trades, one team it worked out for was Golden State when they got Stephen Jackson from Indiana.

[Posey H8er]

This is like Jordan's first comeback.

Damn you new kids and your hip hop! I like the old theme. "It's time for almost 48 minutes of intensity, with your hosts, Doug and Ben." Then insert random cheesy Bulls joke made by Doug.

Will Ben/Sham/anyone else be joining you next week? I liked listening to it today but I feel its better when they are more people discussing. Plus it is more humorous.

[SportsWorld]

Finally Bullsbeat is back!
Anyway we can get Jackfinn wired up for a podcast? That would be amazing and entertaining.
Doug you have a great voice for radio. You should consider doing it if you are ever out of work.

[Hairy Midget]

Can you please change the name to The Bulls Hit