Hello Raps board! I just wrote a profile of Calderon for the Sonics' board that ended up much longer than I had anticipated, and i was wondering if you guys could tell me if you think it's accurate. Like I say in it, I've seen the Raptors play 4-5 times in the last 5 weeks, so I haven't seen near as much as most of you. I apologize if it seems negative--I don't think of it like that, I just see it as an objective assessment--and I'm not coming here to trash your players. We were talking about throwing a bunch of money or next year's draft pick at the Raps for Calderon, and i thought I would try to give a sense of what he brings to the game, based off of what I know. I wanted to hear if you guys thought it was fair, so that I could correct or modify it accordingly. (I also apologize if you guys are sick to death of analyzing Calderon, as I can imagine you might be.) Anyway here goes, in direct quote:
"We should be careful not to overrate Calderon. I don't know if you guys have seen him play, but they've shown about 4-5 of his games in the last month here, and while he is good and uncannily smart with the ball, his stats don't give the best indication of his game. He plays very very safe--thus his low to's--never drives into traffic and never forces passes. And he's extremely precise with his passes, which he can make on the run and from large distances. He gets assists by finding open guys that many other point guards in the league couldn't, and he can make the game exciting for his teammates and for fans. He's also a very efficient shooter, takes what the defense gives him (although is often reluctant, looking to pass more than shoot).
But you also have to keep in mind several things:
--first, he plays almost the WHOLE game now. His forty minutes stats are equal to his game stats. Sonic great Earl Watson dishes a comparable amount of assists per 40, as does Jamaal Tinsley.
--second, his assists come in bunches, with gaps in between. He seems to have an on/off switch like most scorers, which is normal, but not necessarily something you want in your point guard.
--third, and more importantly, if the shot clock is under 10, Calderon is not good. I would bet that he gets most of his assists within the first 10-2 seconds of the clock, either in transition or at the very start of the half-court set, before the defense has totally clamped down and still lets back door cuts, etc go through. If the defense is sound, Calderon just dribbles around the perimeter--again because he doesn't like to turn the ball over--until he passes to someone who takes a contested 18 footer with 2 seconds left on the clock. He can drive, but in keeping with his very careful, deliberative game, he only does so when there's a clear lane caused by bad defensive rotation (or else in transition). He's not a great pick and roll guy; he has Bosh to pick and roll with, but you rarely see a Nash-Stoudemire easy bucket out of those two. . He can't consistently cross his guy over and drive and kick, he can't get to the free throw line in the half court set, he can't post up his defender to get a 12 foot turn around, and he can't pull up off hard dribble for an 18-footer. Teams might not need this in their pg, but remember that Calderon's low TO numbers come from this reluctance to drive and inability to make something out of nothing, not because he magically coasts through crowded lanes without ever losing the ball. In short, he cannot create something out of nothing--he capitalizes on mistakes and seizes any lane you give him, but if you don't give him anything, he can't be too effective.
--4th, he's not too tall and doesn't move his feet that quickly. He's not tiny, but he plays defense smaller than his size. He's definitely not a defensive asset, but i haven't seen enough of him to say that he's a liability. He doesn't produce many turnovers or pressure the ball very well, and he couldn't stay in front of Chauncey or Rajon Rondo, to use two recent examples I saw. He doesn't like to foul, which can be good, but also doesn't do much on help defense. In short, doesn't give much on defense and will not deter good offensive point guards but probably isn't one of the 5 worst defenders out of starting pgs in the league. (After thought: he doesn't play defense as intelligently as he does offense, unlike Steve Nash, who has trouble staying in front of quicker guys but is frequently in good position to force a bad shot or turnover on help defense, and make smart fouls when they're called for.)
I don't want to damper excitement about him, I just thought that Calderon's stats don't communicate his impact that well. He's good, he will help any team, but everything he does effectively shows up in those stats. Unlike Chauncey with his D, his willingness to take tough shots, and his strong veteran presence, there's nothing else to his game that what you see in the stats. He's very solid, he's certainly a 'true' point guard, and he's unbelievable for fantasy basketball, but I don't think he's the next great point guard in the NBA."
Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
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Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
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HotelVitale
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i think you're right until you start talking about the negatives. his assist stats maybe equal per 40, but that says nothing about how much he controls the game. if you put tinsley or watson on the raptors, are they the same team? not to mention his a/t ratio is off the charts compared to those two, and he shoots a much better percentage.
and calderon has actually been good near the end of the shot clock especially since he's such a good jumpshooter that if he can't find the open man, he's able to hit the shot. and you're analysis about how he's ineffective if teams, "don't give him anything" makes sense in theory, except isn't that what makes him good? teams always make mistakes, no team is impenetrable and the fact that he is almost always able to capitalize on them makes him good.
you're right about the defense though. he's 6'2 which is good height for a point guard, but he just can't stay in front of his man. but he does seem to guard bigger guards alright. and you're right about him playing too safe at times and i wonder if he'd get as many assists if we didn't have so many good shooters.
and calderon has actually been good near the end of the shot clock especially since he's such a good jumpshooter that if he can't find the open man, he's able to hit the shot. and you're analysis about how he's ineffective if teams, "don't give him anything" makes sense in theory, except isn't that what makes him good? teams always make mistakes, no team is impenetrable and the fact that he is almost always able to capitalize on them makes him good.
you're right about the defense though. he's 6'2 which is good height for a point guard, but he just can't stay in front of his man. but he does seem to guard bigger guards alright. and you're right about him playing too safe at times and i wonder if he'd get as many assists if we didn't have so many good shooters.
mdenny wrote:In anycase....Masai is probably gonna make Fred the first active player/head coach in franchise history now that Nurse is out of the way. That's been the plan all along.
Re: Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
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ranger001
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Re: Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
HotelVitale wrote:... He's very solid, he's certainly a 'true' point guard, and he's unbelievable for fantasy basketball, but I don't think he's the next great point guard in the NBA."
I think you could learn something from Andre Snellings who actually makes money from writing about basketball.
after really watching him play, Calderon obliterates that line. Calderon is "should be mentioned among the next great point guards in the NBA" good. Calderon is "realistically talked about in same breath as 2005 classmates Chris Paul and Deron Williams" good. I knew that Calderon was putting up good numbers, but I had no idea that he really could develop into the Steve Nash analog that former Suns exec and current Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo's needed to fully run the Phoenix system in Toronto.
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HighOctane
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Most of it is in the ballpark, from what I scanned I can add:
Calderon has some size, he's 6'4. He's not the tiniest PG out there.
Assist ratio to Tinsley, Watson, fine, but on the court they are different players. I would Pick Calderon over Tinsley, followed by Watson.
His drives are very controlled, when he does drive he usually hits his lay up. He doesn't do it often enough though, and getting to the line isn't his game.
His shooting percentages are what you want to zone in on. He's shooting Nash numbers there.
His game is predicated on the pick and roll, while he may not get Stoud-Nash plays Bosh has gotten some fairly easy baskets.
Calderon has some size, he's 6'4. He's not the tiniest PG out there.
Assist ratio to Tinsley, Watson, fine, but on the court they are different players. I would Pick Calderon over Tinsley, followed by Watson.
His drives are very controlled, when he does drive he usually hits his lay up. He doesn't do it often enough though, and getting to the line isn't his game.
His shooting percentages are what you want to zone in on. He's shooting Nash numbers there.
His game is predicated on the pick and roll, while he may not get Stoud-Nash plays Bosh has gotten some fairly easy baskets.
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Shaazzam
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matt2727 wrote:hmmm well i didnt read the whole thing, and I didnt really like alot of the stuff you wrote and didnt agree with alot of it. seems like your writting this to prove your personal bias towards other players.
Well by not you reading it I would say that he may be doing something to disprove a bias you have.
But the per 40 is amusing. The guy is putting up these numbers in 40, they aren't projections, or extrapolations. They are hard numbers.
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Marlowe
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I agree with Random, you've written a pretty balanced critique of Jose Calderon.
One thing I did notice is that you mentioned that his assists come in bunches. Could that me more attributable to the team (ie ebb and flow of the game) rather than Jose Calderon? The Raptors have been a streaky team prior to New Year so perhaps that could be what you are seeing.
I wonder if there are any stats out there on this and how he compares to other PG's in the league?
One thing I did notice is that you mentioned that his assists come in bunches. Could that me more attributable to the team (ie ebb and flow of the game) rather than Jose Calderon? The Raptors have been a streaky team prior to New Year so perhaps that could be what you are seeing.
I wonder if there are any stats out there on this and how he compares to other PG's in the league?
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Young_Buc
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Re: Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
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supersub15
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Re: Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
Fair assessment with a few inaccuracies. Let me explain:
1. "Never forces passes": True, but isn't that a good thing? I'm confused.
2. "Never drives into traffic": I wouldn't say "never". Last year, 41% of his offense was generated from layups at the rim, that's the same proportion as Tony Parker, the master at driving into traffic. This year, he's taking a basckseat to Chris Bosh, i.e. dump it to Bosh and break the defenses with passes when the double inevitably comes. When he's needed, he can drive alright (see Celtics, Boston).
3. "His forty minutes stats are equal to his game stats": As a starter (37 minutes), he's averaging 14/10 (in actual production, not some compiled per40 stat taken from the stats sites). Not a lot of players can claim that. Yes, Watson can probably average 10 assists per 40, but he can't shoot. Yes, Tinsley can probably do the same, but more often than not, he'll forget there are 4 other players on the court and starts going one on one. 'm not disputing that other players can also do it, but you have to look at the whole package. Brevin Knight actually did it, but check his FG%.
4. "more importantly, if the shot clock is under 10, Calderon is not good": Mmmm, you probably don't know this, but the Raptors, with Calderon at the helm, are ranked 30th in pace, i.e. they milk the clock till the last few seconds of the shot clock. However, with this same Calderon at the helm, they have the 11th best offense. Not an accurate observation on your part.
5. "he has Bosh to pick and roll with, but you rarely see a Nash-Stoudemire easy bucket out of those two.": The raptors run a very deliberate pick-and-roll offense with shooters at the corners. Unless the ball is dumped to Bosh in the post, EVERY play they run starts with a pick-and-roll. More often than not, it ends with a pass to the corners for the open shot, and not to Bosh.
Some of the other stuff you wrote is ok, but I'm tired and don't want to dispute everything.
Nice writeup.
1. "Never forces passes": True, but isn't that a good thing? I'm confused.
2. "Never drives into traffic": I wouldn't say "never". Last year, 41% of his offense was generated from layups at the rim, that's the same proportion as Tony Parker, the master at driving into traffic. This year, he's taking a basckseat to Chris Bosh, i.e. dump it to Bosh and break the defenses with passes when the double inevitably comes. When he's needed, he can drive alright (see Celtics, Boston).
3. "His forty minutes stats are equal to his game stats": As a starter (37 minutes), he's averaging 14/10 (in actual production, not some compiled per40 stat taken from the stats sites). Not a lot of players can claim that. Yes, Watson can probably average 10 assists per 40, but he can't shoot. Yes, Tinsley can probably do the same, but more often than not, he'll forget there are 4 other players on the court and starts going one on one. 'm not disputing that other players can also do it, but you have to look at the whole package. Brevin Knight actually did it, but check his FG%.
4. "more importantly, if the shot clock is under 10, Calderon is not good": Mmmm, you probably don't know this, but the Raptors, with Calderon at the helm, are ranked 30th in pace, i.e. they milk the clock till the last few seconds of the shot clock. However, with this same Calderon at the helm, they have the 11th best offense. Not an accurate observation on your part.
5. "he has Bosh to pick and roll with, but you rarely see a Nash-Stoudemire easy bucket out of those two.": The raptors run a very deliberate pick-and-roll offense with shooters at the corners. Unless the ball is dumped to Bosh in the post, EVERY play they run starts with a pick-and-roll. More often than not, it ends with a pass to the corners for the open shot, and not to Bosh.
Some of the other stuff you wrote is ok, but I'm tired and don't want to dispute everything.
Nice writeup.
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Marlowe
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Hotel Vitale
One more thing I forgot to add with what I have written above. I think there are intangibles to Calderon. He is truly a team player and he plays with a lot passion. Whether it be just dishing gatorade after the half for all his teammates or just giving his full effort on the floor. Calderon presence helps a lot with chemistry and team play.
One more thing I forgot to add with what I have written above. I think there are intangibles to Calderon. He is truly a team player and he plays with a lot passion. Whether it be just dishing gatorade after the half for all his teammates or just giving his full effort on the floor. Calderon presence helps a lot with chemistry and team play.
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Pretty good assesment, but I think his offence is a bit better than you state while his D is utter garbage.
The one thing I will add is that if you want to win a championship with Jose as your starting pg, you better go out and get a superstar wing that can create, drive, shoot and defend, or else your not gonna get very far in the playoffs.
The one thing I will add is that if you want to win a championship with Jose as your starting pg, you better go out and get a superstar wing that can create, drive, shoot and defend, or else your not gonna get very far in the playoffs.
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TheDoctor
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The "assists come in bunches" observation is an effect, not a cause, IMO.
When Bosh is playing well, then the main assists Jose gets are when he hits jumpers. But when Bosh is really on, he receives the ball from Jose in the pick and roll, and then drives or passes - removing the assist opportunity.
Which is yet another manifestation of Jose's ability to take what the defense gives him - personally, and as a team. Why force the ball when you don't have to? We're not having any problems scoring with him at the helm, at all. If Bosh is hot, ride him. If they're giving you the lane, take it. Why post the PG up for a lesser opportunity when there's no reason to?
Jose combines the ability to exploit different kinds of mistakes and openings, with the patience to wait for them to open up. That's a pretty fantastic set of skills.
On defense he's smarter than average, but below average staying in front of his man. All in all, that makes him slightly below average - but a massive net positive for the team overall.
When Bosh is playing well, then the main assists Jose gets are when he hits jumpers. But when Bosh is really on, he receives the ball from Jose in the pick and roll, and then drives or passes - removing the assist opportunity.
Which is yet another manifestation of Jose's ability to take what the defense gives him - personally, and as a team. Why force the ball when you don't have to? We're not having any problems scoring with him at the helm, at all. If Bosh is hot, ride him. If they're giving you the lane, take it. Why post the PG up for a lesser opportunity when there's no reason to?
Jose combines the ability to exploit different kinds of mistakes and openings, with the patience to wait for them to open up. That's a pretty fantastic set of skills.
On defense he's smarter than average, but below average staying in front of his man. All in all, that makes him slightly below average - but a massive net positive for the team overall.
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I like him in a press defence, the job he did against Kidd towards the end of the playoffs last year was as good as i've ever seen him on D.
I actually have always seen him as an asset in short clock scenarios, because when time is running out, he seems to take a lot of his trademark jumpers that rarely miss! And if he's not shooting, he tends to find AP or bosh for a decent shot too. maybe that 5 game sample was an aberration...
otherwise though, a decent writeup.
I actually have always seen him as an asset in short clock scenarios, because when time is running out, he seems to take a lot of his trademark jumpers that rarely miss! And if he's not shooting, he tends to find AP or bosh for a decent shot too. maybe that 5 game sample was an aberration...
otherwise though, a decent writeup.
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dagger
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Young_Buc wrote:I'd say its a pretty fair assesment. Some people don't really want to hear it because we overrate our own players, but I'd say you're not too far off. You downplay him a bit, but no he's not the next great point guard or even close IMO.
And sometimes we chronically underrate them until a more optimistic view comes from the talking heads of the U.S. media. For sure, if some of the Charles Barkley fans here heard from him that Jose is a great young point guard, we'd have converts on this board for that testimonial alone.
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Reignman wrote:Pretty good assesment, but I think his offence is a bit better than you state while his D is utter garbage.
The one thing I will add is that if you want to win a championship with Jose as your starting pg, you better go out and get a superstar wing that can create, drive, shoot and defend, or else your not gonna get very far in the playoffs.
Somehow I think Seattle already has that or at least he will be!
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