Hollinger's Updated Playoff Odds

[LittleOzzy]

Toronto

PROJECTED

Record: 49 - 33

Best Record: 60 - 22

Worst Record: 37 - 45

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 100%

Division: 1.2%

Finals: 15.1%

Champions: 6.3%

Boston

PROJECTED

Record: 63 - 19

Best Record: 72 - 10

Worst Record: 51 - 31

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 100%

Division: 98.8%

Finals: 38.3%

Champions: 23.0%

New Jersey

PROJECTED

Record: 28 - 54

Best Record: 41 - 41

Worst Record: 19 - 63

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 0.8%

Division: 0.0%

Finals: 0.0%

Champions: 0.0%


Other teams chances of winning the NBA title.

Detroit: 8.3%
Orlando: 5.5%
New Orleans: 18.8%
Phoenix: 4.5%
LA Lakers: 7.8%
San Antonio: 1.6%

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

[teamLeiweke]

Im LOST!!!!

He saying the raptors have a chance at 60 wins??? a 60-37 margin? OOOOOOOOOOO dont go out on a limb!!!

and the Spurs, a 1.6% chance at a title? Huh???

[magani]

Toronto

PROJECTED

Record: 49 - 33

Best Record: 60 - 22

Worst Record: 37 - 45

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 100%

Division: 1.2%

Finals: 15.1%

Champions: 6.3%

Boston

PROJECTED

Record: 63 - 19

Best Record: 72 - 10

Worst Record: 51 - 31

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 100%

Division: 98.8%

Finals: 38.3%

Champions: 23.0%

New Jersey

PROJECTED

Record: 28 - 54

Best Record: 41 - 41

Worst Record: 19 - 63

ODDS (%)

Playoffs: 0.8%

Division: 0.0%

Finals: 0.0%

Champions: 0.0%


Other teams chanches of winning the NBA title.

Detroit: 8.3%
Orlando: 5.5%
New Orleans: 18.8%
Phoenix: 4.5%
LA Lakers: 7.8%
San Antonio: 1.6%
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Hollinger lost all credibility by making the last 5 percentages. San antonio is still the team to beat and I'd give them a 1 in 3 shot at winning it.

Orlando higher than Phoenix. LOL. New Orleans with no experience in the playoffs at 18%. Bigger LOL.

This is why and when stats suck.

[Hank_Scorpio]

No - he is projecting them at 49 wins. He is saying the most wins that are REASONABLY POSSIBLE is 60.

However, I am pretty happy with 15% odds at making it to the Finals.

[teamLeiweke]

Worst Record 19 wins? The Nets already have 18 wins.. is he saying there is a chance they go 1-40ish for the rest of the year?

Best record raptors... 22 losses.. we already have 19 losses... 40ish-3 for the rest of the year.

REALLY lost.. please explain.

[teamLeiweke]

No - he is projecting them at 49 wins. He is saying the most wins that are REASONABLY POSSIBLE is 60.

However, I am pretty happy with 15% odds at making it to the Finals.

How is 60 wins REASONABLE?...

the raptors would need to finish the season 36-3 to reach 60 wins... that is NO WHERE NEAR reasonable.

[YogiStewart]

explanation: its Hollinger.


probably had his journalism intern do the number crunching. whoops, in my opinion, he probably had his journalism intern do the number crunching.

my question is: if prognosticators were so good at, er...prognosticating, why haven't any of them retired from all the earnings they made in Vegas?

[Magic All The Way]

I guessing the record in the last 10 games is a huge factor in his projected records. That would explain why New Jersey at worst can get 19-63. They've lost 9 in a row.

[thebossman]

wow, never thought id say this to you but... posted already...

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=753566

[LittleOzzy]

wow, never thought id say this to you but... posted already...

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=753566

No problem, haha I clearly didn't see it.

Mods can merge or lock, whatever they wish.

[teamLeiweke]

Well, for the reasons I stated above.. his computers are WAYYYYY off.. maybe not for the predication record, but definitely for the MAX wins and MAX losses records......

unless he is not trying to predict worst case and best case, just he uses the max and the min to get a median result, and thats how he predicts what each teams season record will be.

I dont like it... watch a basketball game Hollinger!

[LittleOzzy]

Well, for the reasons I stated above.. his computers are WAYYYYY off.. maybe not for the predication record, but definitely for the MAX wins and MAX losses records......

unless he is not trying to predict worst case and best case, just he uses the max and the min to get a median result, and thats how he predicts what each teams season record will be.

I dont like it... watch a basketball game Hollinger!

W = Average number of wins from 5,000 computer-simulated seasons, based on the Hollinger Power Rankings

L = Average number of losses

Best = Best record from simulated seasons

Worst = Worst record from simulated seasons

The best and worst records are simply that, the best and worst records recorded after simming 5,000 seasons.

It's not really a projection of what is possible, as it might of only happened once during the 5,000 sims.

[bill russell]

First of all, I don't think 49 wins is a stretch for the Raps. We're on pace for about 46 or 47 thru the first half and our second half is easier (among other things, we're done playing Boston). We should all remember that the best this franchise has ever done is fifty wins. Any luck at all and we could be looking at a franchise year.

[teamLeiweke]

^^ AHHHHH that makes more sence.. but is still useless.... LOL, thanks for explaining though.

So how does he get the TRUE team record then? The result that occurs the greatest amount of times over 5000 tries?

[LittleOzzy]

^^ AHHHHH that makes more sence.. but is still useless.... LOL, thanks for explaining though.

So how does he get the TRUE team record then? The result that occurs the greatest amount of times over 5000 tries?

The team record is the average of all 5000 sims.

[seanied]

First of all, I don't think 49 wins is a stretch for the Raps. We're on pace for about 46 or 47 thru the first half and our second half is easier (among other things, we're done playing Boston). We should all remember that the best this franchise has ever done is fifty wins. Any luck at all and we could be looking at a franchise year.

47, actually.

[tetley]

-= original quote snipped =-



Hollinger lost all credibility by making the last 5 percentages. San antonio is still the team to beat and I'd give them a 1 in 3 shot at winning it.

Orlando higher than Phoenix. LOL. New Orleans with no experience in the playoffs at 18%. Bigger LOL.

This is why and when stats suck.

Actually, it makes sense that good teams in the East have a better chance than those in the West because of how much easier it is to get to the finals. Orlando has beaten both Detroit and Boston (twice) this season, so it's entirely possible that they have a better shot than Phoenix, who may have to make it through, say, Golden State (1st round)-New Orleans (2nd round)-San Antonio (WCF).

[Egg Nog]

^^ AHHHHH that makes more sence.. but is still useless.... LOL, thanks for explaining though.

So how does he get the TRUE team record then? The result that occurs the greatest amount of times over 5000 tries?

His min/max figures are absolute minimums or maximums based on his computer calculations. They are (by definition) not likely, but I don't see how they are somehow useless.

It's pretty safe to assume the "true team record" would be the mode figure (most common result), but keep in mind that even these figures vary from week to week.

[chsh22]

-= original quote snipped =-
Hollinger lost all credibility by making the last 5 percentages. San antonio is still the team to beat and I'd give them a 1 in 3 shot at winning it.

San Antonio also has a history of failing to repeat.

[teamLeiweke]

-= original quote snipped =-



The team record is the average of all 5000 sims.

This makes sence then... why even bother incl the max and min in his article... but the average of all 5000 sims makes sence... I like that.