Joel Freeland

[mojomarc]

By far Portland's bench is better than San Antonio's. The only difference is the Spurs know how to move the ball. The Blazers haven't reached that level yet, as evident in the Houston game when the Rockets doubled Roy on the pick & roll, which will happen in every game from here on out. The lack of ball movement in the offense shines like a light in the dark when the Blazers miss shots. When they get good buckets inside, the ball movement is there.

I would caution against reading too much into the Rockets game. It was like the 8th game of the road trip (7 against playoff teams!) given that we had to fly in and only got one rest day, and it showed with us front-rimming virtually every shot in the second half. Let's see how they do against them in February and then we can make judgements about how we played against them.

[magee]

I wasn't reading into that game. I knew it was like another road game. But their bench just doubled Roy off the pick & roll. Roy looked really tired in the second half and that was probably a good chunk of why there wasn't a lot of ball movement. But teams will start to double Roy and continue to double him because it worked for Houston. The NBA tends to be a copycat league sometimes. Once Roy and the rest of the Blazers get their legs under them, they'll be fine.

[d-train]

I question if that is true. It may be but I'm not sure you could make that call yet.

Compare to the Spurs. Their 'big 3' of Duncan, Ginobli, & Parker is very good. But assume that portland's big 3 of roy-oden-aldridge will reach a nearly comparable level.

The Spurs have the defensive specialist Bowen. Portland appears to be developing Outlaw as quite a specialist as well.

Then the question is if the spurs role players of finley, barry, horry, oberto, vaughn, and elson is that superior to the future role-rotation of webster, jones, blake, pryzbilla, sergio, and frye.

I don't see that it's true, as a matter of fact, projecting just a little, I'd think portland's 'complementary' players could be superior...maybe substantially.

The 4 key players in Spurs rotation that has been successful is Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Bowen. In addition to these 4 Jackson, Robinson, Horry, Finley, Oberto, and Barry have been key supporting contributors. IMO Jones, Blake, Frye, Webster, Przybilla, and Sergio will never measure up to the supporting players Spurs have had. You left out Jack and I like him at least as much as I like the players you mentioned. I also like Jones, Blake, and Frye, but I think we can and need to do better.

[mojomarc]

I don't know if you're overrating the Spurs supporting staff or underrating our talent, but I think the comparison of benches is much closer than you makeit out to be, d-train.

[d-train]

I don't know if you're overrating the Spurs supporting staff or underrating our talent, but I think the comparison of benches is much closer than you makeit out to be, d-train.

I don't know if Horry, Finley, or Barry has enough left to further support Duncan in winning championships, but at the time they made their contributions they were better players than our guys will ever be. We can improve what we have and I believe we will. People are emotionally attached to players that are not making a difference in whether we win or lose games.

[cucad8]

The main difference in the benches is experience. It's easier to say theirs is better because they have playoff and championship experience. But just specifically as role players, and the roles they play on the team, how is Joel not a grea role player as a backup C? How is Jones not a good role player as a 3 point shooter. I would take Pryzbilla over Oberto. I think SA wanted to as well, but he stayed here. Jones and Martell will provide the role of outside shooters that Horry, Finley, and Barry provde there. Am assuming with Jackson and Robinson, you are referring to previous years, so to include them all as one group is misleading. There is work to be done, for sure, but I think a lot of it will just come with experience, playing together, and Oden coming in and slotting others to different roles.

[cucad8]

People are emotionally attached to players that are not making a difference in whether we win or lose games.

Which players are these?

[mojomarc]

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I don't know if Horry, Finley, or Barry has enough left to further support Duncan in winning championships, but at the time they made their contributions they were better players than our guys will ever be. We can improve what we have and I believe we will. People are emotionally attached to players that are not making a difference in whether we win or lose games.

I don't know how you can say that. As an example, I think that Martell is as good right now as Horry ever was, and potentially can become as goo as Finley was in Dallas, not the SA version. Barry is a good player, but so is James Jones. Przy is a better center now than Oberto.

I'm not saying that we're better, but I do think you're either underrating our players or overrating the Spurs' players because the difference isn't all that great once you've gotten to the role players part of the team comparisons.

[d-train]

Which players are these?

All of them other than Roy, Aldridge, and Outlaw

Jones, Blake, Jack, and Frye are playing well but they are replaceable and can be improved upon. Przybilla and Webster are just overrated by fans IMO.

[cucad8]

So every single win this year is attributed to either Roy, Aldridge, or Outlaw? Everyone can be improved upon on our team. Saying nobody is making a difference in whether we win games other than those three is just not true.

[d-train]

I don't know how you can say that. As an example, I think that Martell is as good right now as Horry ever was, and potentially can become as goo as Finley was in Dallas, not the SA version. Barry is a good player, but so is James Jones. Przy is a better center now than Oberto.

I'm not saying that we're better, but I do think you're either underrating our players or overrating the Spurs' players because the difference isn't all that great once you've gotten to the role players part of the team comparisons.

We are going to have to disagree. I would say Horry at his best was one of the most underrated players in NBA history. He is responsible for more wins by championship teams than any player not among the core stars on his team. He has also been a core star on a championship team in Houston. Finley, although not as good as Horry, was an all-star caliber player in the NBA. He has also been a great complimentary player in Dallas and San Antonio. Webster has a chance to be as good as Barry is, but I doubt it. I would trade Przybilla for Oberto in a second.

[mojomarc]

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We are going to have to disagree. I would say Horry at his best was one of the most underrated players in NBA history. He is responsible for more wins by championship teams than any player not among the core stars on his team. He has also been a core star on a championship team in Houston. Finley, although not as good as Horry, was an all-star caliber player in the NBA. He has also been a great complimentary player in Dallas and San Antonio. Webster has a chance to be as good as Barry is, but I doubt it. I would trade Przybilla for Oberto in a second.

Yes we will have to agree to disagree, because Horry was a marginal offense, no-defense, and no-rebounding soft power forward who happened to be at the right place at the right time more than any other player in playoff history. He was Lamarcus without the offensive or defensive games but with all the softness and a bit more range on his jumpshot. And if you'll take Oberto with his non-defense and the same sort of stats as Joel if you ignore shot-blocking in similar minutes, then I really don't think there's much of a point in trying to convince you anymore.

[d-train]

how is Joel not a grea role player as a backup C? How is Jones not a good role player as a 3 point shooter.

Joel and Jones could be role players on a championship team but they can be easily improved upon. Joel has a big contract and Jones might get one so keeping these players might be more costly than it is worth in value. IMO because of Joel

[d-train]

Yes we will have to agree to disagree, because Horry was a marginal offense, no-defense, and no-rebounding soft power forward who happened to be at the right place at the right time more than any other player in playoff history. He was Lamarcus without the offensive or defensive games but with all the softness and a bit more range on his jumpshot. And if you'll take Oberto with his non-defense and the same sort of stats as Joel if you ignore shot-blocking in similar minutes, then I really don't think there's much of a point in trying to convince you anymore.

I would say Horry was LMA with defense and no softness. Oberto's defense is better than anything Joel can do.

[cucad8]

If the assumption is we have our main big 4, then all we necessarily need now are role players. How does clearing Joel's contract for 2009 cap space make a difference? To sign a role player that will end up being overpriced? For the money, where are you finding a better backup C? Who could potentially be available? Until we have won, we aren't going to get guys to join us for a minimum, like SA has the luxury of doing. Not to say you overpay, but I think Joel is worth what he is getting. We have no clue what will happen with James Jones, so I could ust as easily speculate he takes a below market rate to stay here.

[d-train]

If the assumption is we have our main big 4, then all we necessarily need now are role players. How does clearing Joel's contract for 2009 cap space make a difference? To sign a role player that will end up being overpriced? For the money, where are you finding a better backup C? Who could potentially be available? Until we have won, we aren't going to get guys to join us for a minimum, like SA has the luxury of doing. Not to say you overpay, but I think Joel is worth what he is getting. We have no clue what will happen with James Jones, so I could ust as easily speculate he takes a below market rate to stay here.

I'm not sure I agree we have our big 4. I think we have 3 and Outlaw is definitely worth keeping. If Blazers want to be in a position to win several championships, they had better look for a 4th guy in 2009.

I'm not saying Jones and Przybilla have to go. I'm just saying neither is essential to keep and we need to get better.

[mojomarc]

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I would say Horry was LMA with defense and no softness. Oberto's defense is better than anything Joel can do.

Horry never played defense that I ever saw, but I guess we can disagree there, but on Oberto? The guy doesn't rebound as well as Joel, and he isn't remotely the shot-blocker.

I know you don't like stats, but I think you'll agree that if two players play roughly similar minutes and roughly similar roles on teams that tend to get their offense in similar places can be compared by PER-type stats. In the case of Portland and San Antonio, both are deep teams, both get the front-line offense from their nominal PFs and their backcourt offense from their ball-handling guards. Both teams use their starting center around 20 minutes per game. So let's see what the stats say:

For Joel:
Opponents' scoring on-court: 104.7
Opponents' scoring off-court: 110.6
Net: Portland is 5.9 points per game better defensively with Joel on the court than off.

For Oberto:
Opponents' scoring on-court: 105.0
Opponents' scoring off-court: 103.1
Net: San Antonio is 1.9 points per game worse defensively with Oberto on the court instead of off.

That doesn't tell the whole story, so let's look at some other comparisons:
Joel's effective FG% against on court: 47.7% off court: 48.6%
Oberto on court: 50% off court: 48.3%
Net: teams shoot better with Joel off the floor instead of on, while teams look forward to an easier time shooting when Oberto is in the game.

Then you get to blocks, where Oberto isn't even on the charts compared to Joel. Joel's PER48 is 2.62, while Oberto is a pathetic .78, which ranks him 69th out of 82 centers in the league. Joel blocks 3.2% of the shots taken against him, Oberto 1%.

So you can argue that Oberto is a good defender if you wish, but Joel blocks more shots, certainly changes more shots, and the stats show that despite the teams asking for similar things from their centers Joel's presence makes a strong positive difference defensively while Oberto does not (the opposite, in fact).

[d-train]

I would say Horry was LMA with defense and no softness. Oberto's defense is better than anything Joel can do.

Horry never played defense that I ever saw, but I guess we can disagree there, but on Oberto? The guy doesn't rebound as well as Joel, and he isn't remotely the shot-blocker.

I know you don't like stats, but I think you'll agree that if two players play roughly similar minutes and roughly similar roles on teams that tend to get their offense in similar places can be compared by PER-type stats. In the case of Portland and San Antonio, both are deep teams, both get the front-line offense from their nominal PFs and their backcourt offense from their ball-handling guards. Both teams use their starting center around 20 minutes per game. So let's see what the stats say:

For Joel:
Opponents' scoring on-court: 104.7
Opponents' scoring off-court: 110.6
Net: Portland is 5.9 points per game better defensively with Joel on the court than off.

For Oberto:
Opponents' scoring on-court: 105.0
Opponents' scoring off-court: 103.1
Net: San Antonio is 1.9 points per game worse defensively with Oberto on the court instead of off.

That doesn't tell the whole story, so let's look at some other comparisons:
Joel's effective FG% against on court: 47.7% off court: 48.6%
Oberto on court: 50% off court: 48.3%
Net: teams shoot better with Joel off the floor instead of on, while teams look forward to an easier time shooting when Oberto is in the game.

Then you get to blocks, where Oberto isn't even on the charts compared to Joel. Joel's PER48 is 2.62, while Oberto is a pathetic .78, which ranks him 69th out of 82 centers in the league. Joel blocks 3.2% of the shots taken against him, Oberto 1%.

So you can argue that Oberto is a good defender if you wish, but Joel blocks more shots, certainly changes more shots, and the stats show that despite the teams asking for similar things from their centers Joel's presence makes a strong positive difference defensively while Oberto does not (the opposite, in fact).

I know the stats don't reflect it but I would say Oberto is a better rebounder than Joel is. He gets his rebounds on a better rebounding team. Joel gets his rebounds on a poor rebounding team. Oberto is also a better defender than Joel is but they are completely different types of defenders. Oberto is a good man on man low post defender while Joel is a tall 7'1" guy with good timing who isn

[J~Rush]

I agree with D-Train that Joel is the more traditional center of the two. The only thing I disagree with is that Oberto is physically stronger than Joel.

[mojomarc]

The stats I quoted above are per-100 possessions, not per game or per 48 minutes, so pace is neutralized as a factor and Joel's advantage remains.

And while Oberto's Spurs are a better rebounding team, their rebounding rate with him on the court is only 51.4%, while the Blazers are 50.6% with Joel. Without Oberto, the Spurs are 50.1%, while the Blazers without Joel are only 46.8%. This means that Joel influences the Blazers' rebounding more than Oberto does. Yes, the Spurs are a good rebounding team, but without him on the floor they're still pretty good, while Portland with Joel is nearly as good as San Antonio with Oberto, but far, far worse without him.

I'll agree that Oberto is more of a natural PF, to compare them, favoring Oberto, and then saying it's unfair to compare them isn't really a great point.