Western Conference - who misses the playoffs?

[SabasRevenge!]

Wow, not one person has the Blazers making it! It's not surprising considering how low expectations were and the depth in the west, but if they play .500 ball for the rest of the year they'll be in with 45 wins. Their first half was a more difficult schedule than the their second half will be. They've only played division rivals Minny and Seattle once each so far. They have 21-6 since a 5-12 start.

[SabasRevenge!]

I included the kings in the discussion because they just got healthy, have won 4 of the last 6, and have a 5 game home stand starting wednesday. They conceivably could be about .500 by the all star break. They are also just 6 losses out of the 8 seed. They don't have much margin for error, but I think they belong in the discussion.

I agree with you on the Kings. Their chances are almost nil IMO, but they've looked pretty good lately. Kevin Martin has made me a believer. I was reading something last week about how the Kings are this year's "if we only played in the East" team. They'd be that young, scrappy team with a chance to make some noise in the playoffs over there.

[MagicFan32]

I was thinking about this tonight...alot of people should be pushing for a top 16 format instead of top 8 from each conference.

your looking at atleast 2 really good teams not making it.

[Joga_Bonito]

It's an exciting season in the NBA, too bad the big networks are still focusing mostly on the Heat and Cavs when they should be showing different teams who are up and coming and exciting instead of the same formula each year.

[dockingsched]

-= original quote snipped =-



I agree with you on the Kings. Their chances are almost nil IMO, but they've looked pretty good lately. Kevin Martin has made me a believer. I was reading something last week about how the Kings are this year's "if we only played in the East" team. They'd be that young, scrappy team with a chance to make some noise in the playoffs over there.

a buzzer beater against one of the worst teams in the league, a convincing loss to the jazz and a blowout loss to the lowly clips isn't that good.

[CupcakeNoFillin]

I know i've been saying too many times in a bunch of threads, but i'll bring it up again.

Ever since the date of Stephen Jackson's return from suspension, the Warriors have tied with the Boston Celtics for the most wins in the league. So if the season started when Stephen Jackson came back, then the Warriors would be number 1 in the Western Conference right now.

Unfortunately, Golden State is sitting on the 7th seed right now because of the games that we lost when Jackson was out. But still, we have a great record with Jackson playing. And we got these wins with a top 5 toughest schedule in the league.

Now, i'm estimating right now but I think about 6 of our next 8 games are against teams under .500. And we also only have 1 road game in the whole month of February. So we got an easy upcoming schedule, it just depends on if we take advantage of it or not.

[YiYaoYue]

1. Dallas (i think they have a good shot at making it to finals, but might choke against the east of boston or detroit)
2. Pheonix (will probably lose to lakers if its their matchup, beat denver or houston otherwise)
3. Hornets (will probably make it to 2nd round)
4. Jazz (will most likely clinch, but have a 6th or 7th seed record)
5. Spurs (They may fall further, but will pick it up when parker is back while hornets fall a little, but not much so they wont overtake them and eventually meet with dallas as to who will make it to finals if they do they win it all again)
6. Warriors (easy home feburary to buffer them up a bit if webber actually provides some decent bench help)
7. Lakers (fall off to 9th then push back up to 7th for the final 20 with bynum)
8./9. Denver/Houston (whichever has more impending injuries and gets back faster in full strenght)
10. Portland

[KF10]

I included the kings in the discussion because they just got healthy, have won 4 of the last 6, and have a 5 game home stand starting wednesday. They conceivably could be about .500 by the all star break. They are also just 6 losses out of the 8 seed. They don't have much margin for error, but I think they belong in the discussion.

Yeah. IMO that's the difference maker. If we have a GREAT homestand, we will be above .500 and be in LEGIT playoffs talks IMO...

[KF10]

-= original quote snipped =-



a buzzer beater against one of the worst teams in the league, a convincing loss to the jazz and a blowout loss to the lowly clips isn't that good.

In the Jazz game, we were IN it for 3 1/2 quarters but we went to our trademark "meltdown mode"...And we lost that winnable game. For the Clipps and the Sonics; we have the tendency to play unmotivated against lower teams but we play inspired basketball against elite teams... We have to have a stronger mentality i.e. finishing games off and reduce turnovers etc... And we could actually be a team to look out for...

[bleu]

I think that San Antonio's seed will be significantly down from last years, especially considering that they have a 9 game road trip which they are allready 0-1 on. I think they will still be in the playoffs, but possibly moved to a 4-6 seed.

[INKtastic]

I know i've been saying too many times in a bunch of threads, but i'll bring it up again.

Ever since the date of Stephen Jackson's return from suspension, the Warriors have tied with the Boston Celtics for the most wins in the league. So if the season started when Stephen Jackson came back, then the Warriors would be number 1 in the Western Conference right now.

Unfortunately, Golden State is sitting on the 7th seed right now because of the games that we lost when Jackson was out. But still, we have a great record with Jackson playing. And we got these wins with a top 5 toughest schedule in the league.

Now, i'm estimating right now but I think about 6 of our next 8 games are against teams under .500. And we also only have 1 road game in the whole month of February. So we got an easy upcoming schedule, it just depends on if we take advantage of it or not.

Where do you get 5th hardest schedule? According to this, it's the 18th hardest.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0708.htm

Which means the rest of the season is likely to be harder, not easier, than the schedule they've had thus far, while teams tehy are battling have had the harder schedule thus far, like houston (2nd hardest), portland (5th hardest), Jazz (9th hardest).

Looking at strength of schedule is another thing to suggest that the kings might be able to get back in the race. They've had the 8th hardest schedule, so things should be easier the rest of the way.

[CupcakeNoFillin]

-= original quote snipped =-



Where do you get 5th hardest schedule? According to this, it's the 18th hardest.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0708.htm

Which means the rest of the season is likely to be harder, not easier, than the schedule they've had thus far, while teams tehy are battling have had the harder schedule thus far, like houston (2nd hardest), portland (5th hardest), Jazz (9th hardest).

Looking at strength of schedule is another thing to suggest that the kings might be able to get back in the race. They've had the 8th hardest schedule, so things should be easier the rest of the way.

ahh my bad. I could have sworn I heard Warriors broadcasters mentioning how tough our season has been so far, maybe they're just homers. lol. Maybe they meant we had the 5th toughest schedule in a certain month, or a certain stretch of games. thanks for correcting me.

[SabasRevenge!]

-= original quote snipped =-



a buzzer beater against one of the worst teams in the league, a convincing loss to the jazz and a blowout loss to the lowly clips isn't that good.

They've had a winning month and won 7 of 11 with wins over Orlando, Dallas, and Detroit.

IMO it's VERY unlikely that they can keep winning at that pace, most teams will have at least one good stretch over the course of the season, but I wonder what your definition of good is if it hasn't been a nice run for the Kings.

[mistatwo mayn]

Up until recently, GSW had the 5th hardest sched.

I don't see the Rox making it; they just flat out suck with Tmac. 9-24, 6 ast and 4 To's don't cut it.

Portland I think will eventually fall out of the picture... I just do (I'm still curious as to how they'll resign their youngins when it comes time to).

Denver is another team I'd be somewhat weary of. They're the most fragile team in the west, followed by NOR, and then GSW.

[dockingsched]

-= original quote snipped =-



They've had a winning month and won 7 of 11 with wins over Orlando, Dallas, and Detroit.

IMO it's VERY unlikely that they can keep winning at that pace, most teams will have at least one good stretch over the course of the season, but I wonder what your definition of good is if it hasn't been a nice run for the Kings.

it would be not being blown out by the clippers and not playing so dangerously close to the sonics. i know a previous poster mentioned the kings overlooking weak teams but a team in the kings situation doesn't have that excuse. the jazz are simply a better team so thats not a big deal, but their last 3 games have not been good.

[SabasRevenge!]

Up until recently, GSW had the 5th hardest sched.



Portland I think will eventually fall out of the picture... I just do (I'm still curious as to how they'll resign their youngins when it comes time to).

Every time this is mentioned I want to .

Take a look at the CBA if you're curious: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm

Portland can match any offer, extend their players before anyone else has a chance to tender them an offer, offer them higher raises and an extra year, go over the cap as much as they want to keep them (luxury tax be damned), and offer them the most kick-ass jet, facility, and young nucleus around. The only way any of their guys playing under rookie contracts leave is if they are traded or take the qualifying offer for their 5th year instead of signing a gigantic extension, thereby becoming a UFA before their 6th year. There is virtually no chance of Roy, LaMarcus, or Oden leaving before they're probably at least 8 years in.

[dockingsched]

1. Suns
2. Hornets
3. Mavs
4. Jazz (i think they'll be 1st in the division for the rest of the season)
5. Spurs
6. Golden State
7. Lakers
8. Houston

[AKBlazerFan]

Lol, i was thinking the same thing. People still dont realize Paul Allen owns the Blazers, haha.

I's like to think Portland will make it, but i do honestly think 2 of the 3 (Utah, Portland, Denver) will make it, and if we win on feb 4th vs the nuggets we have both tie breakers i believe. I like our chances at winning that divison honestly. If we dont win it, we will be 8th....i hope...

[KF10]

-= original quote snipped =-



it would be not being blown out by the clippers and not playing so dangerously close to the sonics. i know a previous poster mentioned the kings overlooking weak teams but a team in the kings situation doesn't have that excuse. the jazz are simply a better team so thats not a big deal, but their last 3 games have not been good.

Yeah, IMO that will be their downfall if they dont correct that mental error...

[TMACFORMVP]

Really nobody can predict what's going to happen, every team has injury concerns, Houston obviously with the most followed by teams like Denver.

I think Phoenix, SA, Dallas, New Orleans and Utah should be locks for the playoffs (though the team your having the most doubts about is oddly enough SA lol).

1. Phoenix
2. New Orleans
3. Dallas
4. Utah
5. San Antonio

Which leaves three more spots for Portland, Houston, Denver, Warriors and Lakers. Schedule over the next month IMO favor Houston (But both Houston and Dever have very difficult March schedules.) as shown below:

Portland- vs. Cleveland, vs. New York, vs. Denver, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, vs. Indiana, vs. Houston, vs. Dallas, vs. Sacramento, vs. Seattle, vs. Seattle, vs. Boston, vs. Lakers, vs. Clippers vs. Lakers

Denvervs. Memphis, vs. Charlotte, vs. Portland, vs. Utah, vs. Washington, vs. Cleveland, vs. Miami, vs. Orlando, vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Detroit, vs. Seattle, vs. Clippers

Warriors-vs. Houston, vs. New Orleans, vs. Charlotte, vs. Chicago, vs. Sacramento, vs. Washington, vs. Phoenix, vs. Utah, vs. Boston, vs. Atlanta, vs. Seattle, vs. Philly

Houston-vs. Golden State, vs. Indiana, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Minnesota, vs. Atlanta, vs. Portland, vs. Sacramento, vs. Cleveland, vs. Miami, vs. New Orleans, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, vs. Memphis

Lakers-vs. New York, vs. Detroit, vs. Toronto, vs. Washington, vs. New Jersey, vs. Atlanta, vs. Orlando, vs. Miami, vs. Charlotte, vs. Minnesota, vs. Atlanta vs. Phoenix, vs. Seattle, vs. Portland, vs. Miami, vs. Portland

As of now Denver and LA are the only ones unhealthy with Melo and Bynum out respectively for each team and Houston to some extent with Yao having the flu. It really comes down to who stays healthy.

I'm really not a guessing person, but I think I'd have to say Portland misses out and is one year away. They've lost three of their last five, the only two wins coming against Atlanta once by one point and the other by two points. I think the lack of experience may hurt them, despite them really being one of the surprise teams in the league.

I really don't know about the Lakers chances without Bynum on the long road trip, but one thing over the years that you learn is that you don't really doubt Kobe taking an under-manned team to the playoffs. Houston has the foundation, #2 in defensive efficiency and have won 8 of their last 11 games with a favorable schedule coming up. IMO anything below 31-21 at the all-star break is a complete failure. The Warriors have really been involved with too many close games with under average teams recently and at first what I though they'd be locks look a bit more foggy, but their ability to close out games I'd think they get in as well. The Nuggets are the one I'm most up in the air about, they're also an underrated defensive team with great offense, but they're an inconsistent and at time inefficient team, kind of like Houston. It should really come down to the last day of the season to see who gets in or not and the series head to head match-up will be real important in the end.

If I had to guess, I'd think the Warriors, Rockets, and Nuggets make the playoffs, but it could go either way as those three teams mentioned are also at times with their play very inconsistent (mainly Houtson) and the Lakers with Bynum who should be coming back were on top of the west before he came back. One thing is for sure, it should be a hell of a finish.