Chris Paul

[2poor]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to go all kgceltics and declare the Hornets as shoo-ins for the NBA Finals, I'm just saying that contrary to the popular (but wavering) belief, I don't think the Hornets are going to crumble "just because."

I'm just more inclined to think that this [healthy] Hornets team is ready, willing, and able to compete in the playoffs and not of more presumptuous "they're going to fall apart just because" POV. Because why? Because their SOS (which fluctuates constantly) isn't up to snub right now? That it?

You watch them, you see the confidence they're playing with, especially so with regards to the bench over the last 10 games or so. They're outworking their opponents and coasting to wins. The big 3 usually spends at least half (if not most) of the 4th quarter on the bench because of the leads they're surmounting. How often do you see Marcus Camby have 3pt/5reb games? Or Tim Duncan allow his man 32 points on 15-19 shooting? So really, until I see some sort of "fatal flaw," I really have no reason to be anything but optimistic. Most recently, it was the bench questions, but Ryan Bowen of all people has led the revival. Ryan-freaking-Bowen. It has just been that kind of year.

[erudite23]

I'm not saying you should, don't get me wrong.

But it's like the thread on the general board where people are predicting the playoff seeds. Everyone basically has things the way they are right now, with an allowance thrown in for their particular favorite team to improve, of course. So all have the Hornets as a top 1, 2 or 3 seed, even though they are just 3 or 4 games away from losing home court for the first round. They are at (imo) the end of a very hot streak, and everything we know about the NBA suggests that they are about to come back to earth. There will be a lull at some point, and they will go through some hard times. Just the way it is.

When that time comes, you will likely be pushing all the reasons for why people shouldn't bury them--as you should--so don't you think that its fair to bring up the other side of the pancake when they are peaking?

I still think the Jazz finish with a slightly better record, and that the Hornets have a rough stretch or two. I'm thinking they get to 50 wins, just barely, and the Jazz have 1 or 2 more wins than them. More importantly, I foresee a first round matchup between the two. Now that will be good.

[2poor]

I would certainly love to see an NO/UTA playoff series, win or lose. And if not this year, somewhere down the line it is bound to happen.

edit: you're still going to bump that record predictions thread on the Hornets board at your discretion, right?

[erudite23]

Uh.....don't know what you're referring to. The thread that I spoke of was on the General NBA board.

But anything that makes Hornets homers looks stupid is fine by me....

:O

[2poor]

aw, shucks. well I'll help you jog your memory.

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=690406

I'll admit though, I like this gem better:

so you think New Orleans going to finish higher than Houston? you must be crazy

[sarah42]

you can't deny how great the hornets are defensively. and how great they play on the road.

the utah jazz aren't a good defensive team and still don't know how to win on the road.

in the beginning of the season, the hornets didn't have a great home record. now they're home and road records are about equal - winning about 6 in a row at home, 8 on the road.

i don't by the crumbling thing in the playoffs. they'll play a lower seed and should win a round. its not as if they play a nuggets style fact paced offense. they play half court offense about as well as any team in the league. and their front court of west/chandler play great defense. almost every player has some playoff experience except chris - but he's all fire anyway, and this idea that west is small - is boozer some big pf? i read that one of the reasons why he was passed up was his height.

[erudite23]

aw, shucks. well I'll help you jog your memory.

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=690406

I'll admit though, I like this gem better:

-= original quote snipped =-

ahhhhh, you mean that thread, eh?

Well, I have to admit, things look pretty good on that front right now. However, if you were to take a sampling off all the team boards, there would be a noticeably higher amount of unfounded optimism than that of the genuine article.

However, you should be cautioned. Talking trash when your team is peaking in the middle of the season almost never turns out well. That bump might just be coming before its all said and done. If not, I've never been opposed to taking my medicine when the time comes.

[sarah42]

the jazz weren't even in the playoffs until last nights win. why are some so easy to doubt a team 20 games over .500? they are 32-12!

they are 20 games over .500. they are a playoff lock! its not as if they're going to be playing the boston celtics every night. they have beaten the spurs, rockets, lakers, nuggets twice, suns twice portland twice, and dallas as well! they won't forget how to play basketball.

they know how to play those teams. quite a few of those games were blowouts as well. what is this easy schedule stuff about? they've blown out elite teams, and they usually blow out weak teams as well.

its not as if they struggled to beat bad teams like the bucks, Charlotte etc.

i have no doubt the jazz will make the playoffs, because portland can score easily and who knows if the nuggets will be healthy, but why are jazz fans doubting us? its not as if the jazz had playoff experience last year and you made it far.

why can't another up and coming team do the same? as a team that has a great offense and even a better defense it is certainly possible, and we have plently of veterans with playoff experience, international experience and big game college experience with peja, mo and jackson. and no one should doubt chris paul. experience or no experience. dude is angry even up by 20 points like last night.

and he has no problem slapping bruce bowen either. i'm sure bowen enjoyed it last game! chris paul says "you're welcome" lol!

[erudite23]

Also, I want to comment on this much bally-hoed road record, which I admit astounds and impresses even me, so I looked in to it.

Utah has played 23 road games in comparison with 21 for NO.

New Orleans has won 16, Utah has won 8.

Here's a look at the quality of competition, though.

To begin, New Orleans has won 16 games against teams with an average winning % of .436. That is astronimcally low, since they have a weak SOS overall at a much higher .480. Look at the discrepency between those two numbers, and it will definitely help to explain the gap between their winning% at home vs. on the road, where they have actually post a higher win% on the road. The average win% of the 8 teams that the Jazz have beaten? .490

Next, we look at a few wins specifically. The Hornets have really only gotten 3 high quality wins on the road all year. The Lakers, SA, and Pho. The Lakes win came early on when they(LA) were struggling a bit out of the gate, and certainly not playing as well as they did from mid December until Bynum's injury. The Spurs came while they were in the midst of a (currently) 11-12 skid which includes 5 home losses. They count all the same, but its worth mentioning.

Next we look at road losses. NO's road losses have come against Portland (twice), Utah, Denver, and Dallas. Those are 4 of the best 5 home teams in the league, all of which have a win% of at least .591 and an average of .616. In other words, when it comes to the best teams, NO loses just like everyone else. The win% of Jazz losses? .529 Utah has lost to good and bad teams on the road, but has actually been better on the road against winning teams than losing teams (.357 vs .333).

However, when you compare the # of wins that Utah has against +.500 teams with the # that NO has, its pretty close. NO has beaten winning teams on the road 6 times. Utah has done it 5.

The big discrepency really comes down to one thing: beating bad teams. NO is a remarkable 10-0 against losing teams on the road, whereas Utah is 3-6. That tells all you need to know about the difference between the teams, who are 5 1/2 games apart in the standings....the exact difference between their records on the road against losing teams.

Finally, the overall strength of schedule on the road is .470 for NO, and .515 for Utah. Again bearing out the differences in SOS for the teams overall.

Conclusion: Utah doesn't take care of business against bad teams on the road. This has been highlighted by losses to NY, Indy, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami and Denver (:P), all teams that they easily should have dispatched. New Orleans is the opposite. They are playing like a team possessed right now. A team that is highly focused and intent upon its goal. They have all the trappings of one of two types of teams: 1)a veteran team who knows what it takes to win and has the discipline and mental fortitude to retain its focus through the rigors of a long season or 2) a young team who is starving to get recognition and to make its name in the league. The first of these teams are easily capable of maintaining this type of play for the bulk of a season. The second type inevitably go through a regressionary stage.

I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.

[sarah42]

i don't know if that post is complimentary at all, but to lose to teams like ny at home and things like that show a lack of toughness on the utah jazz - if you don't know already.

the hornets and every team for that matter, aren't playing teams from the dleague. each team has nba ready talent. some teams with bad records are very competitive, but have weaknesses near the end.

the hornets and every other good team doesn't let those teams win on a consistent basis. winning on the road is very hard. even san ant is struggling and so is dallas.

to say we only had 3 big road wins on the road is stupid. quite a few teams we played that have bad records now but were very competitive earlier in the season when healthy, and its very hard to win when the crowd is against you. its also very hard to win when the crowd is quiet like in new orleans. but they won anyway, and in the past week, the crowd in new orleans is very loud, and chanting mvp for chris paul.

people who say we don't have homecourt advantage because crowds aren't big enough or loud enough will be surprised come playoff time. monday's game was insane. it was a blowout the whole way through, and the crowd still was crazy!

oh, i can count quite a few big road wins. that back to back against the warriors and then the suns - where the hornets both won, and against the suns when david west wasn't playing was probably when the media really took notice.

both coach gregg poppovich and george carl basically said the hornets are a great team, and carl even said it was the most impressive team he's seen since the celtics- i'm sure the defense is what blew him away.

i'm just sayin. who do you think each team is playing? the miami heat every night? they play in the west and have the best record against western teams and are 1-1 against both the spurs and dallas!

defensive teams just don't fall apart erudite! you know that! don't deny the hornets!

they haven't lost a season series either. whats the jazz' record against the blazers? yes we lost two games against the blazers, but we've also won the other two. at least one was a blowout win as well! you're numbers are meaningless if you don't watch the team.

[sarah42]

i just want to add i think the hornets are a lock to make the playoffs. i think the jazz will make it as well - portland just doesn't have victories that are a sure thing. seems to me they always have close games, and teams like that aren't for real.

you gotta mix in some no doubters. winning ball games by an average of 0.5 points or whatever their number is doesn't mean greatness. chicago was like that last year. look how they turned up. and the west is much more competitive.

i just rather not see these two teams in the playoffs, just to avoid another round of williams/paul - it gets old! they are friends guys!

[Dozer!]

People like to compare Ast/To ratio and give the edge to Paul, but thats not really fair with the way these two teams play.

Everyone knows exactly what the Jazz are going to do, we run a deliberate offense. Its been that way for years, you know what we are going to run, you just have to stop it. So Williams has to make passes with the defense knowing exactly where its going, that cant be easy. Also it seems like Williams gets alot of TOs from players flopping on him because of his size. Because of these things Williams will always have more TO's than Paul.

The Jazz offense also involes other players than Willams to feed posts and cuts. The Jazz as a whole get 26.1 assits per game compared to the Hornets who get 21.6. After Pauls 10.7 ast/gm Pargo is 2nd with 2.6. Williams starts with a point forward in Ak who gets 5ast/gm he also has Boozer who get 3ast/gm. Take away the 2nd playmaker and Williams would have to run the offense more and thus get more assists.

Paul is playing great and you really have to give it up to him for what he has done this year, he has the edge but he is not head and shoulders above Williams.

[Pai Gow]

Yeah, it would be interesting to see how many assists Paul would average if he had another play maker like AK by his side, I'm sure you'd see a drop off.

[JoeyH]

Yeah, it would be interesting to see how many assists Paul would average if he had another play maker like AK by his side, I'm sure you'd see a drop off.

using that theory DWills TOs should be a lot less than Pauls.

[Bradford]

It will be great to see Deron and the Jazz go farther than Chris and the Hornets in this year's playoffs....I can't wait....

[erudite23]

That line about Deron's TOs being partially due to the offense we run is a line of crap. What a ridiculous assertion. The reality is that Deron turns the ball over more than Paul does, simple as that. Its a bad thing, and there's no excusing it. The one thing that has a grain of truth in it is that DW gets called for an inordinate amount of offensive fouls, something that I believe will subside as he gains more star power and thus credibility with the referees.

Aside from that, please don't make excuses, its embarrassing for the rest of us. Deron is turning the ball over more this year, and a lot of the reason for that is he has been pushing the envelope in an attempt to develop his game personally. When he adjusts, his TOs will go down at least a little. Simple as that.

Also, don't excuse Paul's lack of TOs, either. That might be my favorite aspect of his game: the fact that he is able to make such dynamic and game changing plays, but still remain so mistake free. It really blows my mind.

[OC Jazzfan]

Well put.

I suppose you could go through a list of players and come up with excuses to explain any deficiency in any of their stats.

It's not like D-Will's assist to turnover ratio is horrible, it's just that Paul's is really good. He just takes better care of the ball.

Calderon - 5.43 assists per turnover
Paul - 4.11
Billups - 3.55
Nash - 3.21
Davis - 3.00
Kidd - 2.81
D-Will - 2.71

For reference...
John Stockton - career - 3.72
John Stockton - 87'-88' - 4.31

I'm not sure why some of you are getting your undies all twisted up, it's not like anyone is saying D-Will sucks. I for one love the guy's game.

[Bradford]

The reality is that Deron turns the ball over more than Paul does, simple as that.

Another reality is that Deron is a better shooter than Paul....

[kebutah]

...but Paul scores more points while dishing more assists.

[Bradford]

...but Paul scores more points

Let's see here: Paul scores more points than Williams but he shoots a lower field goal percentage....That would have to mean he shoots more shots per game than Williams, OH, yes it does indeed.....If Williams shot as much as Paul, he would score more points per game than him.....Wow, what a concept....I'll take Deron's efficient shooting.....