3-way Breakdown

TBpup · Post #1 » by **TBpup** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:12 pm

"IF" Pritchard were going to make this move, it is still going to have to follow along the lines of what he is trying to accomplish.

1.) Cap considerations
2.) Quality young players
3.) Multi-talented players that can run and shoot

From the reported pieces, how does that fit?

Dallas gets - Kidd, Wright, Armstrong

Portland gets - Harris, Bass

New Jersey gets - Frye, Webster, Jack, Stackhouse, cap space

1.) Bass has an ending contract but Portland would not have full bird rights. Harris has a PPP contract that is around $43MM for 5 years. Cap room in '09 is great but Paul is really the only player out there that KP would spend that kind of money on. What if he is not available? Kevin would have to feel that taking future space would be worth it in the long run from a backcourt running mate standpoint for Roy.

2.) Both Harris and Bass seem like good kids and would seem to fit with the culture here. The NBA is a business and this would be the first time for the Baby Blazers that a fellow teammate they really like would be moving on. At some point, it will have to be done anyhow. Who thinks Jack or Frye would really be long term here?

3.) Harris can definitely run....one of the quicker PG's in the league and his shooting percentage keeps improving. Bass is much more of a banger with little offensive skill. That is why it won't be both Frye and Outlaw going out....the Blazers would be giving up too much offensive flexability on the 'white' (2nd) unit.

Portland at some point will have to make a mult-player deal where more players are going out than coming back. You have to give to get and Webster would basically be the piece you would hate to lose the most along with the potential and rookie contracts of Jack and Frye....with Frye playing much better as of late.

Oden/Przybilla/LaFrentz
LMA/Frye/Outlaw/McBob/Freeland
Webster/Jones/Miles
Roy/Rudy
Blake/Jack/Sergio/Green/Koppenen
...#1 pick and three 2nd round picks.

That is 22 players. Obviously not all of them will stick and some of the picks will be moved but KP is definitely dealing from a position of strength. Also, not all of the young players will reach their full potential here just from a minutes standpoint. (The 'buy low, sell high' principle) At some point, there has to be more quality and less quantity.

I'm still not sure Pritchard does this deal as he has shown he likes to do thinks more in summer/off-season than at the trade deadline. The Nets can take on two more players than they send out....three if they were to cut Stackhouse. Dallas like Portland has a full 15 players. The missing piece is that Miles or Raef would almost have to be included to make the deal work due to Kidd's large salary. The more players invovled, the easier it is to work around Harris's PPP contract.

This would seem to be somewhat of a departure from the cap-space plan but seems to fit in almost every other way....I'm still doubtful.

:starwars

Post #2 » by **Mr Odd** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:38 pm

Good breakdown sir.. .
-

I havent been updated on the latest,
battling a cold has kind of sidelined
me a bit, with that said my question
is, Outlaw is now out of the rumor??

Telfaire · Post #3 » by **Telfaire** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:41 pm

If it's Webster instead of Outlaw, then I'm more OK with it, though I like Webster and want to see how he develops next season...but with Roy-LMA-Oden, and Outlaw as a backup SF, what we'll need from our starting SF (assuming it wont be Outlaw himself) is mainly 3's and defense. Could we get a defensive upgrade over Webster in 2009? Granger would most likely get an extension, how about Childress or Garcia?

ebott · Post #4 » by **ebott** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:44 pm

So if this deal went down we'd have a roster for the rest of the season of...

c- Przybilla, ?
pf- Aldridge, Outlaw, Bass
sf- Jones, ?
sg- Roy, ?
pg- Harris, Blake, Sergio

It would be a rough rest of the season. But this is a team building for the future and man we'd be set...

c- Oden, Przybilla
pf- Aldridge, Outlaw, Bass
sf- Jones, Rudy
sg- Roy, Rudy
pg- Harris, Blake, Sergio

Goldbum · Post #5 » by **Goldbum** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:45 pm

Good write up. I just think Martells potential is to high to trade WITH Frye and Jack in this deal. On the other hand Harris is a huge upgrade and Jones/Travis can absorb Matells minutes while Bass/Outlaw/LaFrentz absorb Fryes. I will say this however, if he trades Trout I will personally drive the 300mi to PDX just to pee in Pritchards cheerios.

Post #6 » by **Billy** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:49 pm

Thanks for the breakdown TBPup.

I hate to lose either of Webster or Travis, but I'd pick Webster at this point if I had to part with one.

Moving a contract like Miles would make the deal all the more sweet.

Post #7 » by **Mr Odd** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:55 pm

Well all the rumors on the sites that Ive looked
at has Outlaw in it. TB why doesnt your review
of the rumor have Outlaw in it?? Im going to go
crazy if Outlaw is traded.. .I kidd you not!!!!!!!!

TBpup · Post #8 » by **TBpup** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:00 pm

c- Przybilla, ?
pf- Aldridge, Outlaw, Bass
sf- Jones, ?
sg- Roy, ?
pg- Harris, Blake, Sergio

With that line-up, McBob lovers would see a reapperance immediately! :clap:

I think as Travis continues to develop, he will have more and more SF skills. He is taking people off the dribble more and can just elevate over other SF's. Also his passing is markedly improved....he drove and found a wide-open Blake in the corner whose '3' was just in and out. He is making much better decision from a passing standpoint and while he needs to work on his handle, is getting better there also.

Rudy is not a SF...too short, too light. But I like the future options if a possible deal went down.

Oden/Przybilla/Aldridge
Aldridge/Outlaw/Bass/McBob
Jones/Outlaw
Roy/Rudy
Harris/Sergio/Blake

That is a tighter rotation and I think eventually Sergio moves ahead of Blake. Aldridge and Outlaw can both play two spots and Harris could play off of Roy as well.

:starwars

Post #9 » by **Mr Odd** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:02 pm

TB!! Dont leave me hanging!! :lol:

Why isnt Travis in your breakdown when
hes in all of the rumors out there?? Thanks.

Butter · Post #10 » by **Butter** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:07 pm

Billy wrote:Thanks for the breakdown TBPup.

I hate to lose either of Webster or Travis, but I'd pick Webster at this point if I had to part with one.

Moving a contract like Miles would make the deal all the more sweet.

To me, this is not totally different than the year the Blazers traded the #3 pick to Orlando and drafted Martell. I can't remember who it was, but Orlando had an expiring contract that season. It would have been a much better deal if the Blazers could have dumped Derek Anderson to clear his salary.

Personally, I think out of the three teams involved, the Blazers need this trade the least, so I think they should stick to their guns and get what they want out of the deal.

TBpup · Post #11 » by **TBpup** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:10 pm

Why isnt Travis in your breakdown when
hes in all of the rumors out there?? Thanks.

It's not that Travis's name hasn't been brought up. First of all, I don't think a deal is very likely from what I've heard of where the discussions are. Also, KP is not going to trade Webster AND Outlaw AND Frye AND Jack. If Outlaw goes (which I doubt) Frye and Webster stay.

Everyone would like Portland's young, talented and inexpensive players. You'll hear a lot of names but that doesn't mean they would necessarily be involved. Again, my feel is it's a long shot given the components of any conversations so far.

:starwars

Butter · Post #12 » by **Butter** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:11 pm

TBpup wrote:
c- Przybilla, ?
pf- Aldridge, Outlaw, Bass
sf- Jones, ?
sg- Roy, ?
pg- Harris, Blake, Sergio

With that line-up, McBob lovers would see a reapperance immediately!

I think as Travis continues to develop, he will have more and more SF skills. He is taking people off the dribble more and can just elevate over other SF's. Also his passing is markedly improved....he drove and found a wide-open Blake in the corner whose '3' was just in and out. He is making much better decision from a passing standpoint and while he needs to work on his handle, is getting better there also.

Rudy is not a SF...too short, too light. But I like the future options if a possible deal went down.

Oden/Przybilla/Aldridge
Aldridge/Outlaw/Bass/McBob
Jones/Outlaw
Roy/Rudy
Harris/Sergio/Blake

That is a tighter rotation and I think eventually Sergio moves ahead of Blake. Aldridge and Outlaw can both play two spots and Harris could play off of Roy as well.

A lot of fans have decided that Travis is less effective when playing the SF spot. That may be true today, but only because he needs to continue to develop additional skills. Specifically, I think Outlaw needs to focus on his ball handling. Travis does go to the rim at times, but I think he's so much more comfortable taking jumpers, he just defaults to that aspect of his game. For most players, being able to penetrate means that the defender has to step back, opening up the jumper. Because Outlaw can jump so high, maybe he just doesn't worry about that as much. But man, can you imagine how good Travis could be with his current jumper and Brandon Roy's handles?

ph1sh55 · Post #13 » by **ph1sh55** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:14 pm

because giving up outlaw is something pritchard isn't likely to do considering we just re-signed him. We re-signed him before this breakout session- we are getting extremely good value from him and the sky is the limit.

JD45 · Post #14 » by **JD45** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:16 pm

A couple of additions on Harris and Bass:

Harris' 3pt% is improving, but his overall FG% has been high for the last 3 years (47%, 49%, 48%). And he gets to the line a lot, so his true shooting % is a sizzling 59%. The previous two years, Harris did not shoot a very good 3pt%, put he did not take many 3pt shots.

Bass is an offensive player. His defense is below average because of his height. But he has a good drive to the basket to go with a good mid-range jump shot. And he can finish after taking contact and makes his foul shots at a high rate.

iamstupid · Post #15 » by **iamstupid** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:21 pm

^ What if say, the original trade proposal were to happen with a couple exceptions. Outlaw was added to Dallas, and Dallas upgrades Harris to Howard.... I'm sure Dallas fans would hate the idea, but I think Outlaw + Kidd for Howard isn't too bad a deal for them (I'm sure they disagree). P-town would have to give up quite a bit to get JH (Outlaw, Web, Jack, Frye, Pick) but I'd think it would be worth it. I'm sure it doesn't work salary wise anyways, just pipe dreaming I guess.

PG. Blake, Roy, Sergio
SG. Roy, Howard
SF. Howard, Jones
PF. Aldridge, Bass
C. Joel, aldridge, lafrenz

Butter · Post #16 » by **Butter** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:23 pm

JD45 wrote:A couple of additions on Harris and Bass:

Harris' 3pt% is improving, but his overall FG% has been high for the last 3 years (47%, 49%, 48%). And he gets to the line a lot, so his true shooting % is a sizzling 59%. The previous two years, Harris did not shoot a very good 3pt%, put he did not take many 3pt shots.

Bass is an offensive player. His defense is below average because of his height. But he has a good drive to the basket to go with a good mid-range jump shot. And he can finish after taking contact and makes his foul shots at a high rate.

Harris has only made 25 3's this year (35.7%). That's what, 1 every 2 games? Maybe he just doesn't get a large volume of shots out there. The problem is, its eerily similar to Outlaw, 22 made 3's (44%). I don't know if those two don't have the confidence or what, but it seems like a negative to me.

Goldbum · Post #17 » by **Goldbum** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:27 pm

Here's a crazy thought: What if PDX does this deal (Martell/Frys/Jack) because they feel that D.Miles is ready to come in and contribute? It sounds a little far fetched but just because J Quick doesn't think Darius can play doesn't establish that he can't.

TBpup · Post #18 » by **TBpup** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:30 pm

Here's a crazy thought: What if PDX does this deal (Martell/Frys/Jack) because they feel that D.Miles is ready to come in and contribute? It sounds a little far fetched but just because J Quick doesn't think Darius can play doesn't establish that he can't.

Goldblum...you're right, crazy thought.

Post #19 » by **Mr Odd** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:02 pm

Just for the record.. .

I am all for this trade aslong as Outlaw,
Roy, LMA, Oden and James arent in it.. .

BonziWellsPDX · Post #20 » by **BonziWellsPDX** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:30 pm

If Portland can trade:
1. either Outlaw or Frye (but not both);
2. plus two of the following: Jack, Sergio, Webster or James Jones, 2008 1st (lotto protected);
3. and throw in some combination of 2nd round picks if necessary

for Devin Harris, I think you have to do it. If Brandon Bass is also included, that's fine--he doesn't do it for me one way or another.

Portland would be able to trim its roster, it would get back the best player in the swap who fits with our Big 3 (Roy, Aldridge, Oden) chemistry-wise and age-wise and skillset-wise, and wouldn't leave itself with any gaping holes moving forward--we would have a very good starting-caliber PG with an excellent backup, outside shooting, and a scoring big man off the bench.