My lottery solution

[sports savant]

there's been plenty of ideas thrown around in my "milwaukee lottery pick" forum.

"all people same odds":
this doesn't reward the legitimately bad teams. And might even amplify the "rich gets richer" theory.

After watching last year, when the 76ers had the worse record in the league BY THREE games at the mid-way point last year, and then we all had to witness teams start tanking, faking injuries (miraculous how Gasol n Al Jefferson got healthy once the "spots" were secured)

We all know David Stern is a control freak-- 3/4 Napolean complex and his stuff doesn't stink.. so do what they do in little league. CUT THE SEASON IN HALF....

now this only goes for the teams that DON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AT THE END OF the season.......

so for instance if a team has a bad 1st half or 2nd half, but makes the playoffs-- you discount them from the equation.
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1)grade teams at the end of 41games and then again at 82 games....

2)add the % together AND THEN scale the lottery.

This allows CAPT STERN to watch over games 30-41 and 70-82 for MYSTERIOUS INJURIES (if Redd sprains his ankle game 32 and then game 72--it raises the TANK FLAG and he can protect the "integrity" of the game. It also provides for major injuries which affect a half season.)

more red flags are raised and patterns can be identified and punished. (dont 4get Stern dont care about "fair" all the time)
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the 76ers had the worse record after 41 games last yr: they would recieve say 20pt

Memphis was 2nd 18pts

and so on......

then after the season, you do the same thing again, but only for the teams that were not fighting for the playoffs (la clippers last yr got eliminated on 2nd to last day-- so they automatically get last lottery pick... same w New Orleans)

LA Clippers 40* (#16)
Indiana 35
New Orleans 39*(#15)
Sacramento 33
Charlotte 33
New York 33
Portland 32
Minnesota 32
Atlanta 30
Seattle 31
Milwaukee 28
Boston 24
Memphis 22

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so before the lottey you look at total POINTS: the 76ers get 20pts for the 1st half worse record, then 2 pts for the 2nd half (best) record for 22 pts.......

(memphis would have still got 1st % for lottery 18pts for 1st half, 20pts for 2nd half, 76ers would have been 5th! boston who was in 6th playoff spot before that 1-24 run, would have been 8th)


it very difficult to "read" it but its actually easy.. and then you still "weight" the lottery the same as it is now, but then CONSISTENTLY BAD teams are rewarded for being just bad, while injuries, and tanking can be watched and then only affect 1/2 the season.....

I will now accept and answer questions...... hhahahaa

[CPops57]

I'm sure with a little brainstorming we could find a formula that is somewhat better than the current one, but I think that SS's proposal is a bit too complex.

However, I personally believe that any problems with tanking that exist won't really be solved until guaranteed contracts are eliminated. Players couldn't give anything less than 100% if they didn't have that rock-solid guarantee that they'd get their cash next year anyway.

(I realize that this is unlikely to happen. I just view it as the ultimate solution to this problem.)

[MOE SIZLAK]

i actually like this idea. it kind of defeats the tanking problem & sets the lottery for whats its supposed to be(helping bad teams get better)

im on board with ya because i havent heard a better solution yet

[sports savant]

it sounds complex but simply put: you rank the non playoff teams and give the highest pts for the team w the worse record.... you do that after the 1st half of the season (41games) and again at end of season....

you add up the pts--and then go to the current lottery probabilities (which are very complex, but they're already established)
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like I said, last yr the 76ers had the worse record after the first 41games: they'd get the most points say "24"

Memphis had 2nd worse record they get "22"
------

second half of season 76ers had best record of non playoff teams, they get "2" points

Boston had worse they get "24"
-------

you then add the points from both halves, and rank the teams: most points gets #1 lottery, etc.......
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all it is really is awarding the current lottery rankings but doing it after the first 41 games n then again at the end of the season.....

[The Guilty Party]

Here's my issue... even in your system, a team like Miami would have better odds than franchises like the Sixers, Bobcats, and Knicks who we can all agree are legitimately bad franchises. The Heat and Clippers are, talent-wise, rich teams that are suffering this season due to injuries.

My theory of throwing all of the non-playoff teams into the lottery with the same odds alleviates that issue as well as the tanking issue. I would argue that a team that finishes somewhere between the 7th worst record and the 12th worst record is a franchise that is going to be doomed much longer than a team that finished with the worst record 1 season.

[tk76]

Savant- not a bad idea, can't imagine it well ever be adopted... Maybe if you gave it a catchy name- the Savant System?

I'm eagerly awaiting your answers to global poverty and the impending world financial crisis. Time to direct you mind to the greater good.

[UptownPhilly]

Great idea. Changes need to be made to the NBA Draft lottery to prevent tanking.

It doesn't appear to be as much of a problem as last year, but things may get ugly after the trade deadline.

[freshie2]

We discussed this a lot last season if I remember correctly. I think you even out the odds for all teams, giving the worst teams some advantage, but less than they currently have, and only lock in the top 5 spots so the team with the worst record can be no worse than 6th instead of 4th, and 2-7th, 3-8th, etc. Even if a team tanks, they could potentially end up @ 6th, which should be less of an incentive to end up with the worst record.

[dond]

As a famous American once said ... "There is no shortage of ideas" ... and I am sure that is true for this issue as well.

Here is another idea ...

Attempt to SMOOOTH ... out the ranking of teams by going back over multiple years ...

So, if a team does badly this year but had 2 or 3 pretty good years prior to this year, they do not vault to the lottery pick overnight.

You can also put restrictions on the lottery pick, such as ... you cannot have a lottery pick for 2 consecutive years ... or more than 1 in 3 years ...

The trick is to get the ideas to the man making the decisions ...

[is1531]

there's been plenty of ideas thrown around in my "milwaukee lottery pick" forum.

"all people same odds":
this doesn't reward the legitimately bad teams. And might even amplify the "rich gets richer" theory.

After watching last year, when the 76ers had the worse record in the league BY THREE games at the mid-way point last year, and then we all had to witness teams start tanking, faking injuries (miraculous how Gasol n Al Jefferson got healthy once the "spots" were secured)

We all know David Stern is a control freak-- 3/4 Napolean complex and his stuff doesn't stink.. so do what they do in little league. CUT THE SEASON IN HALF....

now this only goes for the teams that DON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AT THE END OF the season.......

so for instance if a team has a bad 1st half or 2nd half, but makes the playoffs-- you discount them from the equation.
--------------

1)grade teams at the end of 41games and then again at 82 games....

2)add the % together AND THEN scale the lottery.

This allows CAPT STERN to watch over games 30-41 and 70-82 for MYSTERIOUS INJURIES (if Redd sprains his ankle game 32 and then game 72--it raises the TANK FLAG and he can protect the "integrity" of the game. It also provides for major injuries which affect a half season.)

more red flags are raised and patterns can be identified and punished. (dont 4get Stern dont care about "fair" all the time)
------------

the 76ers had the worse record after 41 games last yr: they would recieve say 20pt

Memphis was 2nd 18pts

and so on......

then after the season, you do the same thing again, but only for the teams that were not fighting for the playoffs (la clippers last yr got eliminated on 2nd to last day-- so they automatically get last lottery pick... same w New Orleans)

LA Clippers 40* (#16)
Indiana 35
New Orleans 39*(#15)
Sacramento 33
Charlotte 33
New York 33
Portland 32
Minnesota 32
Atlanta 30
Seattle 31
Milwaukee 28
Boston 24
Memphis 22

------------
so before the lottey you look at total POINTS: the 76ers get 20pts for the 1st half worse record, then 2 pts for the 2nd half (best) record for 22 pts.......

(memphis would have still got 1st % for lottery 18pts for 1st half, 20pts for 2nd half, 76ers would have been 5th! boston who was in 6th playoff spot before that 1-24 run, would have been 8th)


it very difficult to "read" it but its actually easy.. and then you still "weight" the lottery the same as it is now, but then CONSISTENTLY BAD teams are rewarded for being just bad, while injuries, and tanking can be watched and then only affect 1/2 the season.....

I will now accept and answer questions...... hhahahaa

It's a good idea since Milwakee and Memphis were tanking games like crazy last year in April.Michael Redd missed a lot of games in April and the Bucks always collapsed in the 4th quarter.

Memphis plays no defese as it is,so can you imagine a defensless Memphis team playing defense in the 4th quarter in April.You just have to love Spunge Gasol.

[cx09]

decent idea. if you wanted to take it further:

grade each team relative to the rest of the league after each game.

so for ex: if the sixers are in 23rd place after the magic game (don't know if they are, just using this number as an example), they get 23 points. do this for every team after every game. add up the points at the end of the season, and whoever has the most gets the #1 pick.

seems complicated but it's really not, just involves alot of addition. i'm sure the nba has an employee capable of keeping this tab.

it would basically assign lottery position based on historical standing throughout the course of a season, as opposed to just standing at the end.

[LieCheatSteal]

Why don't you have the non-playoff bound teams play for the 1st pick and then their pick thereafter? Kinda like the "NIT" of the NBA. Single game, knockout playoff format. Could happen at the same time as the first round of the NBA playoffs. This way, no non-playoff teams in their right minds would ever dump their best players.

[sports savant]

I dont think that would really help the bad teams the true purpose of the draft...

now if ya wanna tell me that the teams at the very bottom of league battle it out in a winner gets #1 etc... i might listen.

remember the nfl season w the reggie bush draft. San Fran played Tennesse the last week of the season or so, and that kicker was missed that FIELD GOAL by about 100ft????

people were saying he did it on purpose etc.... i thought that the nfl shudda stepped in that year and said, "the WINNER of this game gets the #1 pick..."

i get what you're saying here, but what if Portland or even San Antonio jus miss the playoffs this year---- and then ya have this tourny that you bring up: what do ya think will happen league wide when the SPURS get the 1ST PICK??

[LieCheatSteal]

I dont think that would really help the bad teams the true purpose of the draft...

now if ya wanna tell me that the teams at the very bottom of league battle it out in a winner gets #1 etc... i might listen.

remember the nfl season w the reggie bush draft. San Fran played Tennesse the last week of the season or so, and that kicker was missed that FIELD GOAL by about 100ft????

people were saying he did it on purpose etc.... i thought that the nfl shudda stepped in that year and said, "the WINNER of this game gets the #1 pick..."

i get what you're saying here, but what if Portland or even San Antonio jus miss the playoffs this year---- and then ya have this tourny that you bring up: what do ya think will happen league wide when the SPURS get the 1ST PICK??

True, but it would be entertaining regardless. Plus, anything can happen in a single elimination knockout playoff. San Antonio did lose to Seattle.

Alternatively, instead of playing the full team, it could be 3 on 3 with the 3 best vs the 3 best of the other team. This could happen in one day, single elimination again and could be a ratings bonanza. Example: Sixers vs Clippers: Iggy, Miller and Dalembert vs Kaman, Brand and Cassell.

[sports savant]

lets have the COACHES & GMs team up and play each other 2 x 2??!!!

I got Charlotte