Analysis: The race for the 3-6 seeds

[supersub15]

The race for the 3-6 seeds is tight and any team that goes on a good run can probably secure the 3rd seed. However, extrapolating win totals from the current record of each team is not a good exercise, given the different strengths of schedule. The best way, I thought, would be to actually go through the remaining schedule of each team and give wins and losses according to each team's perceived strength and its previous result against the competition. I did not take into account injuries (no one can anticipate those) nor back-to-backs.

So, without further ado, I give you the results.

LEGEND:
GR: Games Remaining
HomeG: Home Games
ExpW: Expected Wins
ExpL: Expected Losses



Washington

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         1       1       0
Charlotte    2         2       2       0
Boston       1         1       0       1
Chicago      2         0       1       1
Cleveland    2         1       1       1
Denver       1         0       0       1
Detroit      2         1       0       2
Golden State 1         0       0       1
Houston      1         0       0       1
Indiana      1         1       1       0
LA Clippers  2         1       2       0
LA Lakers    2         1       1       1
Miami        2         1       2       0
Milwaukee    2         2       2       0
New Orleans  2         1       0       2
New York     1         1       1       0
Orlando      3         1       1       2
Philadelphia 2         1       2       0
Phoenix      1         0       0       1
Portland     1         0       1       0
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Seattle      1         0       1       0
Toronto      1         0       0       1
Utah         2         1       0       2
TOTALS       38        18      20      18

Expected Final Record: 44-38

Toronto

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         0       1       0
Charlotte    3         2       3       0
Chicago      1         0       0       1
Cleveland    1         0       0       1
Denver       2         1       1       1
Detroit      2         1       0       2
Golden State 1         0       0       1
Indiana      2         1       1       1
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
LA Lakers    2         1       1       1
Miami        4         2       3       1
Milwaukee    1         1       1       0
Minnesota    2         1       2       0
New Jersey   3         2       2       1
New Orleans  1         1       1       0
New York     3         2       3       0
Orlando      2         1       1       1
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Seattle      1         1       1       0
Utah         1         0       0       1
Washington   1         1       1       0
TOTALS       37        20      24      13

Expected Final Record: 49-33

Cleveland

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         0       1       0
Boston       2         1       0       2
Charlotte    2         1       2       0
Chicago      4         2       3       1
Denver       1         1       0       1
Detroit      3         2       1       2
Houston      2         1       1       1
Indiana      2         1       2       0
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
Memphis      1         1       1       0
Miami        1         1       1       0
Milwaukee    2         0       2       0
Minnesota    1         1       1       0
New Jersey   2         1       1       1
New Orleans  1         1       0       1
New York     1         0       1       0
Orlando      3         1       1       2
Philadelphia 2         1       2       0
Portland     1         1       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Toronto      1         1       1       0
Washington   2         1       1       1
TOTALS       37        21      24      13

Expected Final Record: 49-33

Orlando

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      3         1       2       1
Chicago      2         1       2       0
Cleveland    3         2       2       1
Dallas       1         1       0       1
Denver       1         1       0       1
Detroit      1         0       0       1
Golden State 1         1       1       0
Indiana      2         1       1       1
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
LA Lakers    1         1       1       0
Miami        1         0       1       0
Milwaukee    1         0       1       0
Minnesota    1         1       1       0
New Jersey   2         1       1       1
New Orleans  1         1       0       1
New York     2         1       2       0
Philadelphia 4         2       3       1
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Toronto      2         0       1       1
Washington   3         2       2       1
TOTALS       35        19      23      13

Expected Final Record: 52-30

Final Standings:
1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland
5. Toronto
6. Washington
7. scrub team (probably Atlanta)
8. scrub team (probably New Jersey)

Expected Playoff Matchups:
Boston vs. New Jersey
Detroit vs. Atlanta
Orlando vs. Washington
Clevaland vs. Toronto

I think that 5th spot is ours to lose. I expect us to have a 5-win cushion against Washington, which is plenty. The 4th spot is still possible, since it looks like we'll be tied with Cleveland record-wise, and any extended absence by Lebron, and 4th will be ours. The problem is Orlando. They have a relatively easy schedule and should be a lock for the 3rd.

It looks, ladies and gentlemen, like this is another one-and-done for us this year, even if we secure the 4th spot against Cleveland.

Thoughts?

[RINSE]

I'd rather face Orlando than face Cleveland, if you ask me.

[JD225]

It's too early. I wouldn't count out the Wizards taking the 5th spot and I wouldn't count out us or the Cavs taking the 3rd spot. 49, 49 and 52 is as tight as it gets if you're going by expected win/loss records.

Hopefully we avoid Lebron and his good for nothing else but rebounding crew.

[ICEMANRC]

I'd rather face Orlando than face Cleveland, if you ask me.

Me too. We match up much better against the magic than we do with the Cavs.
I'm hoping we face either the Magic, Washington (if we can take 3rd), or the Knicks if Magic is right about them making the playoffs, lol

[tecumseh18]

There's just something I don't like about Orlando. Wishfully thinking or not, I expect them to drop back. The ideal situation for the Raps would be to have Cleveland in 3rd, Toronto in 4th and Washington/Orlando in 5th.

I'll eschew setting out the logic for why I believe that is also the likely result, since it relies on a largely selective use of facts that only a complete homer would appreciate.

[Michael Bradley]

If the Raptors face a healthy LeBron in the playoffs, then it's definitely one and done, whether the Raps get homecourt or not. Other than Boston and Detroit, the Cavs are the last team I'd want the Raptors to face in the first round.

They should have more of a chance against Washington or Orlando, but I still wouldn't be confident with those match-ups (unless Arenas and Butler are both out again).

Barring a really significant trade by Colangelo, I'd be very surprised if the Raptors got out of the 1st round this year, even if Ford is healthy.

[Kosta]

Yeah, you can't really predict something like this, as you said there could be injuries, trades, teams go in funks and fall back of the pack, you just don't know. I think we're right there with Orlando, we still face them 3 more times I believe? We take care of business against them in the season series we can make up some games there.

[hoop_head]

It does seem like we are headed for a first-round rumble with Cleveland. The 4,5,6 spots are likely to be Cleveland, Toronto, and Washington. If fortune smiles on us, we finish with a better record than Cleveland and grab home-court advantage. If lady luck loves us, Orlando and Cleveland will struggle and we grab the 3-spot, facing Washington is the first round. I like our chances against Washington, Cleveland or Orlando would be substantially more difficult.

The drama builds............

[Spragga]

playing cleavland would be the absolute worst. I cringe thinking about Varejeo outworking our entire team for offensive boards.

[Buyaka]

Good analysis. Either way, we would be meeting Orl, Cle or Wash. Unless, we add a rebounder, it's lights out 1st round.

[kingr]

Cool analysis, this is just a what-if type analysis, so no one would really take this toooo seriously.

[Dub_P]

We have a hard enough time beating Cleveland during the regular season, so they would own us in the playoffs. Especially with the type of guys they have, a guy like Verajao would most def kill us with offensive boards when it comes to making key stops. I just don't like how we match up with them.

Orlando would be ideal, they are relatively inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs like us and their PG's aren't likely to kill us like Kidd last year. Yes, we can't stop D12 but they can't stop CB4 (the way he is playing currently) either so it would def be interesting.

[wade2bosh]

Cleveland, Washington (With Gilbert), and Orlando dont scare me

vs Raptors (With Ford and Garbo)

[Philip J Fry]

Interesting work, sub. While I think it's too early to get worried about any particular matchup, it will be fun to watch how the teams bunched around us perform down the stretch.

[MjM2xTreMe]

Nice stats and you're right, any team that goes on a run could possibly take it.

btw you orlando chart has 1 extra game.

[hoophoophooray]

Interesting work SS. I'm sure you are aware that Hollinger's(ESPN) latest number crunching comes out with 3-8 win totals as follows.

3-Orlando-52
4-Toronto-51
5-Cleveland-46
6-Washington-42
7-Indiana-37
8-Atlanta-36

I suspect his work rates blow out wins and losses a little high, hence the strong Toronto rating. Also of interest his computor simulations give the Raptors a 20.7% chance of making the NBA final and a 10.0% chance of winning it all. (Boston-28.7%, New Orleans-14.4%). In any case quite a turnabout from his pre season calls.

His numbers change daily and it will be interesting to watch them over the next month.

[Test of Wills]

We are going to vs. one of Wash. Orl. or Cleveland but with Arenas likely to come back watch out for the Wiz they have their own Big 3 in Arenas Butler and Jamison but their defense will drop. To be honest i'm not scared of the Cavs I think Bosh has a stronger supporting cast then Lebron. Bosh has Caldy, Ford, Bargs, Parker,Delfino,Kapono and Moon.
Lebron has Zy,Gooden,Hughes,Varejao(out 3-4 weeks) Pavlovic, Gibson.
You see no true point guards on the Cavs team which is to our advantage even if they get kidd he cant score anymore and they have to give 20 million worth of contracts which would prolly include Hughes ,Gooden, Gibson and a Future 1st. Orlando is the only team i fear becuase they matchup good against us, Howard will pound Bargs unless Sam is smart to put in Rasho. Turkoglu could abuse Moon especially posting up. Bosh>Lewis.Parker>Bogans.Ford/Caldy>Arroyo/Nelson.
But the key to all this is BC MUST acquire a rebounding big whether it is Reggie Evans or Steven Hunter we need one.

[La princesa]

Man, seriously I want to face Washington.. Lebron scares me ..seriously .

[dagger]

If the Raptors face a healthy LeBron in the playoffs, then it's definitely one and done, whether the Raps get homecourt or not. Other than Boston and Detroit, the Cavs are the last team I'd want the Raptors to face in the first round.

They should have more of a chance against Washington or Orlando, but I still wouldn't be confident with those match-ups (unless Arenas and Butler are both out again).

Barring a really significant trade by Colangelo, I'd be very surprised if the Raptors got out of the 1st round this year, even if Ford is healthy.

Yes, but there are possibilities for us to be better, too. A healthy Ford, whether starting or coming off the bench, is another five points of offence. What if Bargnani averages, say, 12 points per game the rest of the way. (He's averaged 14 four his last four games)? What if we swing a minor deal for a little more rebounding help? As Doug Smith says, when Bosh and Bargnani are both clicking at the same time - which hasn't happened much this season - we are as good as any team in the East, and I believe that.

To all of those weak-kneed among you trembling at the idea of Lebron or Arenas, yes they are fantastic players but the Raps, when they are firing on all cylinders, have the ability to strike fear in other teams. We have to see it from their perspective. It's raining threes, baby.

[SomeDay]

I think facing the Cavs in the playoffs would be a good challenge to the team.

Ideally, the raps would get killed in the first game on the glass, and they would absolutely HAVE to come back the next game with a mindset focussed on rebounding. Like Bosh has already said, rebounding is about "just doing it". In a perfect world, the raps would hold on to this improved focus on rebounding for seasons to come.

I really doubt they are winning a championship this year, so why not get in some practice time against one of the better teams in the East?