Analysis: The race for the 3-6 seeds

[Darrick Martin]

A rebounding big man is the key to defeating Orlando and Washington and an athletic SF for Cleveland (more like double/triple teaming LBJ).

[raptorsam]

i rather play boston than clevland

[elephunk]

i rather play boston than clevland

+1


We had this same debate last year before the playoffs series against the Nets as well, between the so called chest-thumpers and the weak-kneed. If the playoffs have shown us anything over the years, it's that 'Raptors basketball' don't win you games, but rather getting down to the nitty-gritty and playing tough defense and rebounding. If Lebron really wanted to, he could obliterate us in 4 games...he just chooses not to or maybe seeing that

[The_Hater]

Nice job SS.

I think that Washington with their tough early schedule is clearly the 6th best team and Orlando has to be odds on to finish 3rd. And all of that would bad news for the Raps because I think that Cleveland with their size and experience from last year along with a 4th quarter superstar are by far the toughest draw for us.

We've really got to find a way to catch Orlando and finish 3rd.

[KRANG]

This whole season I've been expecting us to face Cleveland in the 1st round. I think its going to happen, reguardless of what the seedings are.
It will be exciting, but we won't win.

[Anticon]

The best seed for us is probably Washington, but that's wishful thinking.

I had pegged Cleveland for a definite 3rd, but with Varaejo out that seems unlikely.

The sad thing is about playing Cleveland is that it all ready seems a foregone conclusion. Playing Orlando would at least have some element of surprise.

[Shaazzam]

I think Cleveland is that last team I want to face. I'll gladly take ORL though. If we can contain Hedo, we beat that team.

[JN]

The race for the 3-6 seeds is tight and any team that goes on a good run can probably secure the 3rd seed. However, extrapolating win totals from the current record of each team is not a good exercise, given the different strengths of schedule. The best way, I thought, would be to actually go through the remaining schedule of each team and give wins and losses according to each team's perceived strength and its previous result against the competition. I did not take into account injuries (no one can anticipate those) nor back-to-backs.

So, without further ado, I give you the results.

LEGEND:
GR: Games Remaining
HomeG: Home Games
ExpW: Expected Wins
ExpL: Expected Losses



Washington

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         1       1       0
Charlotte    2         2       2       0
Boston       1         1       0       1
Chicago      2         0       1       1
Cleveland    2         1       1       1
Denver       1         0       0       1
Detroit      2         1       0       2
Golden State 1         0       0       1
Houston      1         0       0       1
Indiana      1         1       1       0
LA Clippers  2         1       2       0
LA Lakers    2         1       1       1
Miami        2         1       2       0
Milwaukee    2         2       2       0
New Orleans  2         1       0       2
New York     1         1       1       0
Orlando      3         1       1       2
Philadelphia 2         1       2       0
Phoenix      1         0       0       1
Portland     1         0       1       0
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Seattle      1         0       1       0
Toronto      1         0       0       1
Utah         2         1       0       2
TOTALS       38        18      20      18

Expected Final Record: 44-38

Toronto

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         0       1       0
Charlotte    3         2       3       0
Chicago      1         0       0       1
Cleveland    1         0       0       1
Denver       2         1       1       1
Detroit      2         1       0       2
Golden State 1         0       0       1
Indiana      2         1       1       1
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
LA Lakers    2         1       1       1
Miami        4         2       3       1
Milwaukee    1         1       1       0
Minnesota    2         1       2       0
New Jersey   3         2       2       1
New Orleans  1         1       1       0
New York     3         2       3       0
Orlando      2         1       1       1
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Seattle      1         1       1       0
Utah         1         0       0       1
Washington   1         1       1       0
TOTALS       37        20      24      13

Expected Final Record: 49-33

Cleveland

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      1         0       1       0
Boston       2         1       0       2
Charlotte    2         1       2       0
Chicago      4         2       3       1
Denver       1         1       0       1
Detroit      3         2       1       2
Houston      2         1       1       1
Indiana      2         1       2       0
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
Memphis      1         1       1       0
Miami        1         1       1       0
Milwaukee    2         0       2       0
Minnesota    1         1       1       0
New Jersey   2         1       1       1
New Orleans  1         1       0       1
New York     1         0       1       0
Orlando      3         1       1       2
Philadelphia 2         1       2       0
Portland     1         1       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Toronto      1         1       1       0
Washington   2         1       1       1
TOTALS       37        21      24      13

Expected Final Record: 49-33

Orlando

Code: Select all

Team         GR     HomeG    ExpW    ExpL
Atlanta      3         1       2       1
Chicago      2         1       2       0
Cleveland    3         2       2       1
Dallas       1         1       0       1
Denver       1         1       0       1
Detroit      1         0       0       1
Golden State 1         1       1       0
Indiana      2         1       1       1
LA Clippers  1         1       1       0
LA Lakers    1         1       1       0
Miami        1         0       1       0
Milwaukee    1         0       1       0
Minnesota    1         1       1       0
New Jersey   2         1       1       1
New Orleans  1         1       0       1
New York     2         1       2       0
Philadelphia 4         2       3       1
Sacramento   1         0       1       0
San Antonio  1         1       0       1
Toronto      2         0       1       1
Washington   3         2       2       1
TOTALS       35        19      23      13

Expected Final Record: 52-30

Final Standings:
1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland
5. Toronto
6. Washington
7. scrub team (probably Atlanta)
8. scrub team (probably New Jersey)

Expected Playoff Matchups:
Boston vs. New Jersey
Detroit vs. Atlanta
Orlando vs. Washington
Clevaland vs. Toronto

I think that 5th spot is ours to lose. I expect us to have a 5-win cushion against Washington, which is plenty. The 4th spot is still possible, since it looks like we'll be tied with Cleveland record-wise, and any extended absence by Lebron, and 4th will be ours. The problem is Orlando. They have a relatively easy schedule and should be a lock for the 3rd.

It looks, ladies and gentlemen, like this is another one-and-done for us this year, even if we secure the 4th spot against Cleveland.

Thoughts?

Your expecting 3 of the 4 teams to have have records of 23-13 or better. I think your expectations may be a little too high

[The_Hater]

Your expecting 3 of the 4 teams to have have records of 23-13 or better. I think your expectations may be a little too high.

The Raps have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league thus far and have a very easy part of their season coming up including 12 games left against the bottom 6 teams in the league.

The Cavs are currently 25-13 with LeBron in the lineup (0-7 without).

The Magic have only played 1 game behind a 23-13 pace thus far and also have an easier schedule ahead of them.


I don't see it as that big a stretch actually.

[teamLeiweke]

Id rather play the Magic, just because I know LBJ will cut through our team like a hot knife through margerine.

[jeffya2]

Nice stats but a lot of work. I did the same study last night but it only took 12 seconds of research with the same results

Eliminate Boston & Detroit {can't overtake them}
Eliminate Bottom 2 {no matter who can't catch up}

Orlando, Cleveland, Washington

Depends totally on injuries

[Michael Bradley]

-= original quote snipped =-Yes, but there are possibilities for us to be better, too. A healthy Ford, whether starting or coming off the bench, is another five points of offence. What if Bargnani averages, say, 12 points per game the rest of the way. (He's averaged 14 four his last four games)? What if we swing a minor deal for a little more rebounding help? As Doug Smith says, when Bosh and Bargnani are both clicking at the same time - which hasn't happened much this season - we are as good as any team in the East, and I believe that.

To all of those weak-kneed among you trembling at the idea of Lebron or Arenas, yes they are fantastic players but the Raps, when they are firing on all cylinders, have the ability to strike fear in other teams. We have to see it from their perspective. It's raining threes, baby.

My issue is not so much the competition (that's part of it), but I've felt since the beginning of the year that the Raptors roster is not built for the playoffs. The Raps are not a great defensive team, and they lack a true creator on offense who can take over games and/or create instant offense (ala LeBron, Arenas, etc). Will a jump shooting team with passable rebounding/defense be able to win in the playoffs? I hope so, but I'm not too confident. The Nets series last year exposed the Raptors weaknesses badly, IMO.

In an ideal world, the Raptors get homecourt and avoid LeBron. That's probably the best chance they have of advancing. Although a lot can change if Colangelo makes a good move or two at the deadline.