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Ford to return to practice Friday (pg 8)

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Post#221 » by supersub15 » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:06 pm

YogiStewart wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

just admit that you love Calderon and hate TJ, and you loved Hoffa, but hate Bargnani, and that you...

just kidding.

i know you're a stats guy, and this is my own personal opinion, but i find that the only sports where stats seem to have such an important factor is baseball. baseball has a stat for everything and that's what the managers and GMs use for bullpen calls, drafting, hit and runs, etc etc.

i think that most NBA coaches only look at a handful of stats, including FT % (when intentionally fouling), all-around shooting percentages, and win-loss percentages.


I swear that I did not put the stats out to try to show TJ's bad side. Yes, he does take more shots, but 1.5 less attempts by Bosh is not a big deal, and I said so, especially in the first 1/4 of the season, when Bosh was stinking it up and TJ was shooting great. Also, lost in this is the fact that the team plays at a higher pace with TJ, i.e. more shots, so those 6 extra shots might not be taken away from somebody else ( I can't confirm it unfortunately, because that would require a lot of time sifting through game logs and stat sheets).

Some posters just want to see evil in everything and don't know how to reply, except by demeaning other posters.
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Post#222 » by daswunderboy » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:09 pm

Ah, pace. Good stat. So, not only would TJ average about 4-5 more points a game, but the team would have more shots a game. 30th in pace with Jose, 13th with TJ. Let's say that gives us 10 shots a game more. Chances are, we don't miss all the shots, and that leads to 5-6 more points.

And we are slightly better defensively with TJ, so the more points, the legit second option in TJ and the better D.

Other then health and the overrated "a/to" stat, I don't see why people like Jose more.
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Post#223 » by YogiStewart » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:17 pm

supersub15 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I swear that I did not put the stats out to try to show TJ's bad side. ...
Some posters just want to see evil in everything and don't know how to reply, except by demeaning other posters.


i know you didn't mean to, so no worries. i don't think you gave that impression. you just tossed out some stats to inspire discussion - something which is alien to most people on here.

i also know you're a stat guy and, therefore, are my sworn enemy!!

:D
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Post#224 » by MacDaddy » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:28 pm

pace=shats=wins
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Post#225 » by Grizzled » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:33 pm

I think this whole debate about who is better is largely pointless. Would any team in the league want to make TJ their PG of the future right now? There may be a few who might want to take a chance on him for their playoff run this year, but I don
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Post#226 » by Young_Buc » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:34 pm

daswunderboy wrote:Ah, pace. Good stat. So, not only would TJ average about 4-5 more points a game, but the team would have more shots a game. 30th in pace with Jose, 13th with TJ. Let's say that gives us 10 shots a game more. Chances are, we don't miss all the shots, and that leads to 5-6 more points.

And we are slightly better defensively with TJ, so the more points, the legit second option in TJ and the better D.

Other then health and the overrated "a/to" stat, I don't see why people like Jose more.


I believe there are a number of more provocative reasons as to why people like Jose more, but I will say that people like Jose because he's the embodiment of the majority of peoples mentalities. Be conservative, don't stand out too much, just blend in. With Jose's style it is difficult to pin losses on him. He shoots a great percentage and racks up a good deal of assists. On the surface it seems like he has not done anything wrong. The majority of the time he hasn't. But at the same token, while Jose doesn't often lose you games, he doesn't win you many either. And that's fine with the majority of people.

The other people, who like something daring, to put everything on the line and swing for the fence will generally like Ford. With him you have to take the bitter with the sweet, Ford WILL lose you games period. He'll also win you quite a bit more than he loses. The problem here though, is that those loses STING! people don't forget them. When Ford loses you a game peoples knee jerk reaction is for Jose, because he never loses games for you. It's a simpletons mentality, but people aren't exactly critical thinkers when watching professional sports. There's too much passion involved.

If basketball were politics, Caldy would be a conservative and TJ a liberal. neither is particularly wrong, its all in your preference. I just don't think this team as it stands is good enough to be conservative. Give me a Kobe like talent and I'd definitely want a PG who doesn't screw things up. But here? on this team? I'd much rather go for the big play every time and take my losses.
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Post#227 » by daswunderboy » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:38 pm

Young_Buc wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I believe there are a number of more provocative reasons as to why people like Jose more, but I will say that people like Jose because he's the embodiment of the majority of peoples mentalities. Be conservative, don't stand out too much, just blend in. With Jose's style it is difficult to pin losses on him. He shoots a great percentage and racks up a good deal of assists. On the surface it seems like he has not done anything wrong. The majority of the time he hasn't. But at the same token, while Jose doesn't often lose you games, he doesn't win you many either. And that's fine with the majority of people.

The other people, who like something daring, to put everything on the line and swing for the fence will generally like Ford. With him you have to take the bitter with the sweet, Ford WILL lose you games period. He'll also win you quite a bit more than he loses. The problem here though, is that those loses STING! people don't forget them. When Ford loses you a game peoples knee jerk reaction is for Jose, because he never loses games for you. It's a simpletons mentality, but people aren't exactly critical thinkers when watching professional sports. There's too much passion involved.

If basketball were politics, Caldy would be a conservative and TJ a liberal. neither is particularly wrong, its all in your preference. I just don't think this team as it stands is good enough to be conservative. Give me a Kobe like talent and I'd definitely want a PG who doesn't screw things up. But here? on this team? I'd much rather go for the big play every time and take my losses.


This should be framed and hung up somewhere in the forum.

Unless you have a singular talent like Kobe, Wade or Lebron, a conservative PG like Calderon will only get you so far.

Sorry, I love Bosh, but he can't take a game over like those guys. We need a creator, someone who is willing to take risks to win.

Come back soon TJ!
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Post#228 » by Grizzled » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:39 pm

To read some of these posts here you
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Post#229 » by Hank_Scorpio » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:48 pm

Grizzled wrote:To read some of these posts here you
Postbro1 wrote:Obama is right on this.
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Post#230 » by Young_Buc » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:48 pm

Grizzled wrote:To read some of these posts here you
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Post#231 » by Grizzled » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:50 pm

Young_Buc wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I believe there are a number of more provocative reasons as to why people like Jose more, but I will say that people like Jose because he's the embodiment of the majority of peoples mentalities. Be conservative, don't stand out too much, just blend in. With Jose's style it is difficult to pin losses on him. He shoots a great percentage and racks up a good deal of assists. On the surface it seems like he has not done anything wrong. The majority of the time he hasn't. But at the same token, while Jose doesn't often lose you games, he doesn't win you many either. And that's fine with the majority of people.

The other people, who like something daring, to put everything on the line and swing for the fence will generally like Ford. With him you have to take the bitter with the sweet, Ford WILL lose you games period. He'll also win you quite a bit more than he loses. The problem here though, is that those loses STING! people don't forget them. When Ford loses you a game peoples knee jerk reaction is for Jose, because he never loses games for you. It's a simpletons mentality, but people aren't exactly critical thinkers when watching professional sports. There's too much passion involved.

If basketball were politics, Caldy would be a conservative and TJ a liberal. neither is particularly wrong, its all in your preference. I just don't think this team as it stands is good enough to be conservative. Give me a Kobe like talent and I'd definitely want a PG who doesn't screw things up. But here? on this team? I'd much rather go for the big play every time and take my losses.


Creative fiction.

The real simpleton
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Post#232 » by daswunderboy » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:51 pm

Grizzled wrote:To read some of these posts here you
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Post#233 » by ansoncarter » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:55 pm

I think we've been starved for an iso type scorer so long that people are mistaking TJ for one

imo, every opposing coach in the league loves when TJ pretends he's a game changer
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Post#234 » by Grizzled » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:57 pm

Hank_Scorpio wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Again, you are falling victim to seeing a correlation and implying causality.

The reason why Calderon's winning percentage is better is more likely because he is playing with a healthier, more effective, more aggressive Chris Bosh.

Remember that early in the season, Bosh was really laboring. He took almost 2 weeks off at the start of December. 2 games after he came back, TJ was down.

So you are comparing TJ with a hurt Bosh vs. Jose with a healthy Bosh.


I will agree that it is very difficult to make such comparisons. On the one hand Bosh was healthy for Calderon. On the other hand TJ had Calderon backing him up, and it was Calderon who was the better player some of those games that TJ started. Calderon has had nothing but scrubs backing him up, otoh. But, if someone is going to ignore the winning percentages and cherry pick the one factor that favours TJ and ignore the ones that favour Calderon, then they are not really engaging in a fair comparison, are they? As I
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Post#235 » by EnigmaticProblem » Sat Feb 2, 2008 5:57 pm

ansoncarter wrote:I think we've been starved for an iso type scorer so long that people are mistaking TJ for one

imo, every opposing coach in the league loves when TJ pretends he's a game changer

:clap:
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Post#236 » by Grizzled » Sat Feb 2, 2008 6:04 pm

daswunderboy wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Last year, TJ as a starter led us to a 57% winning percentage. That includes our awful start where the team was gelling.

Now, of course this was with Jose as a backup. And we can't make the obvious comparison of the team with just TJ and everyone else without Jose, which means that this is essentially a useless exercise. TJ's win% this year is heavily skewed due to everyone else playing like crap (and really, Bosh was so bad that this shouldn't even have to be brought up again and again), and his own mediocre play when he came back from the first injury and was working back to game shape during the actual games.

Stats aren't static things. They have to be interpreted.

Agreed. See my last post before this one.

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