The Overrating of Travis Outlaw

[tucson]

I've deleted my post as it didn't belong with topic.

[SalemStoner]

This reply was originally written to go in the Martell vs Travis thread, but given the fact that it's entirely on Travis I felt it should prolly get it's own topic.

I think this thread just shows the vast overrating of Travis Outlaw by Portland fans right now...

This isn't to say Travis isn't a nice player, and a good complimentary piece but as a whole this board seems to have quickly forgotten that Travis does in fact have limitations and that despite his tremendous physical gifts, he also has his own curse(asthema). Travis will probably never be able to play 30mpg due to this, there's nothing wrong with that but it will probably keep him relegated to bench duties for the majority of his career.

Travis also has another significant problem, he's most effective as a PF but his body tends to lead people to call him a SF. He's more able to take advantage of his quickness as a PF than a SF, and in fact Travis has a hard time guarding alot of SFs in man to man D. Yes he can be effective as a SF, but he's far more effective creating mismatches as a PF. He'll be able to improve as a SF, but he'll probably never be great defensively against SFs, and he definately has a harder time getting his shot off against them since he can't just drive by them like he can most PFs and he lacks a real post game to take advantage of the gaping size difference between him and most SFs.

Travis has two more problems in his game, and they're pretty interconnected; His ability and willingness to pass the ball. Travis is a willing passer from what I've seen, however he's horrible at seeing passing lanes despite having a huge height advantage the majority of the time. This tends to cause him to try to force his own offense at times. This of all his issues is by far the most correctable and is something we've seen improvement in this year as well, but it doesn't change the fact that he's still just not very good at it.

All Travis' heroics aside, I think Travis Outlaw will be a good player in this league for a long time, however trying to put him into the same nearly untouchable catagory as LMA, Roy and Oden is absurd. In fact I think Travis is a very expendable piece given the fact that we currently have 2 other approximately equally skilled PFs(LMA, Frye) and SFs(Webster, Jones). I also believe that if we decide to keep Outlaw, then that means we'll be shipping out probably Frye and either Jones or Webster in the offseason since his duties and theirs are going to be very similar when Oden is back(and Frye doesn't have to pretend to be a C anymore).

[DmoneyH3]

bah,he's 23 years old and clutch. He's easily been our 2nd best player all year long. You don't trade guys like him, who actually prefer the bench role, have no ego, can lock down players on D, and create his own shot. Name one player outside of Roy who can create his own shot? The one and only Trav!

[J~Rush]

bah,he's 23 years old and clutch. He's easily been our 2nd best player all year long. You don't trade guys like him, who actually prefer the bench role, have no ego, can lock down players on D, and create his own shot. Name one player outside of Roy who can create his own shot? The one and only Trav!

I've seen McBob with some nifty step back J's.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not sure that many here are saying Travis is as good as roy-oden-aldridge. I know I'm not.

However, right now he's the 3rd best player on the team (oden isn't playing obviously). And, while I don't think he'll ever be an allstar, I do believe he has the potential to be a dynamite 6th man. Maybe one of the best in the league. And that fits with your concern about his asthma.

And right now, almost all of the discussion about current blazers is about potential.

As to the PF/SF debate...I don't buy it. He's got the athleticism and quickness to play both, and I think he will end up doing that. I believe the assertion he's bad at playing SF is based upon previous assertions that were based upon time he spent there before the giant steps forward he has taken this season.

As to your contention about his passing...I simply don't agree. At least I don't unless you're talking about webster and jones as comparisons. Travis averages 1.4 assists compared to Webster's 1.4. But Webster plays 2 more minutes a game. Jones only averages 0.7. As a matter of fact Outlaw leads all frontcourt players on the team in assists. And he's improving in that category.

Of the 3 of them, Outlaw is obviously superior at putting the ball on the floor, driving, and creating his own shot. Martell is showing signs in that part of his game, but outlaw is substantially ahead. Jones....not so much.

Then there's the fact that that Outlaw can get his shot almost any time and it's practically unblockable. Add that to the fact that he's significantly a better shooter then martell.

You say that outlaw is approximately equal to frye, webster, and jones, as far as skill. I strongly disagree. Right now he's more skilled, and has a wider array of skills, some of which are unique when compared to the others.

a month ago, if i was to rate the 4 forwards as far as 'keepers', I would have probably rated them 1-outlaw, 2-jones, 3-frye, 4-webster.

But I've changed on that. I'm seeing that Jones doesn't help the blazers a lot if his shot isn't falling, so I'd switch webster at #2 for jones.

LMA and Webster as starters, with outlaw as the primary backup offers the best combination for portland in my view.

[swede]

My only beef is that people overrated him athletically. Yes, he is a special athlete but pretty much in one place - jumping high. He is pretty long too, so I think those two get confused for athleticism. Martell Webster is a much better all around athlete IMO. Faster runner, more stamina, much bigger body type, can jump out of the gym as well.. basically has a much more prototypical NBA body then Outlaw. We need to resign him to a reasonable contract for 3-4 years ASAP.

[Twith]

It's weird that Travis doesn't seem to have the body of a PF when Tyrus Thomas does, seeing as they are the exact same height and weight. If Trav gains a little weight he could totally be a backup 4 on a championship team, as he's already developing the inside game.

[cucad8]

bah,he's 23 years old and clutch. He's easily been our 2nd best player all year long. You don't trade guys like him, who actually prefer the bench role, have no ego, can lock down players on D, and create his own shot. Name one player outside of Roy who can create his own shot? The one and only Trav!

How did this even get started. He is not a lock down defender. I wouldn't even say he is a good man to man defender. Lock down? Gimme a break. Not even close. He can't keep his man in front of him.

[SalemStoner]

-= original quote snipped =-



How did this even get started. He is not a lock down defender. I wouldn't even say he is a good man to man defender. Lock down? Gimme a break. Not even close. He can't keep his man in front of him.

Yeah, calling Travis Outlaw a lockdown defender is like calling Jarrett Jack good at the fast break or saying Sergio has a pretty shot.

It's just flat out delusional.

[DmoneyH3]

this is coming from a stoner???

[cucad8]

this is coming from a stoner???

At least he has seen Travis try to play defense, unlike yourself.

[mojomarc]

I'm not sure that many here are saying Travis is as good as roy-oden-aldridge. I know I'm not.

Some people on the board have explicitly stated that, though, so I can understand Salem's frustration on this point. I've pointed out myself how that's going way too far.

However, right now he's the 3rd best player on the team (oden isn't playing obviously). And, while I don't think he'll ever be an allstar, I do believe he has the potential to be a dynamite 6th man. Maybe one of the best in the league. And that fits with your concern about his asthma.

I agree, although I honestly think that he's not our 3rd best player if you look at all-around game. I think you can make that argument, but I think he's in there about tied with Blake and Joel and Martell in a knot of players that are all very valuable to the team but not in that first tier.

As to the PF/SF debate...I don't buy it. He's got the athleticism and quickness to play both, and I think he will end up doing that. I believe the assertion he's bad at playing SF is based upon previous assertions that were based upon time he spent there before the giant steps forward he has taken this season.

I think he's very athletic as well. I think the issue with him playing SF, particularly on defense, is the basketball IQ issue with him more than anything. He just isn't all that good at reading what his opponent will do quickly enough to counter it, but he gets just that split second longer to figure things out against the PFs. Even on offense he has this issue, as he has a tendency to force up his shot when the defense doesn't bite on that jab-step move of his.

As to your contention about his passing...I simply don't agree. At least I don't unless you're talking about webster and jones as comparisons. Travis averages 1.4 assists compared to Webster's 1.4. But Webster plays 2 more minutes a game. Jones only averages 0.7. As a matter of fact Outlaw leads all frontcourt players on the team in assists. And he's improving in that category.

I don't begrudge Jones not passing, since he is essentially given a green-light to spot up from three the entire time and that's all he really does. Webster, though, is a much more astute passer than Outlaw was at this stage in their respective careers. Remember--Webster may have a slightly lower assist-per rate, but he's also two years younger.

Of the 3 of them, Outlaw is obviously superior at putting the ball on the floor, driving, and creating his own shot. Martell is showing signs in that part of his game, but outlaw is substantially ahead. Jones....not so much.

Then there's the fact that that Outlaw can get his shot almost any time and it's practically unblockable. Add that to the fact that he's significantly a better shooter then martell.

Not true, at least statistically. Webster is the better shooter, either by TS% or EFG%, and that'sagainst the Outlaw at this year, not against the Outlaw two years ago. THe major difference is that Outlaw takes virtually all of his shots from 20' in, while Webster takes half of his shots from 3pt range. So even though the ball goes through the rim more often with Outlaw per shot, because the baskets are worth more on average when Webster shoots them his shots are more valuable. Both TS% and eFG% are, I think, better assessments of shooting ability than straight FG% when you have players who play such wildly different games.

You say that outlaw is approximately equal to frye, webster, and jones, as far as skill. I strongly disagree. Right now he's more skilled, and has a wider array of skills, some of which are unique when compared to the others.

I'll agree with this, but I will also point out that other than Jones you're comparing Outlaw to players who are nearly his equal but who have much less NBA experience, approximately half of his experience in fact.

a month ago, if i was to rate the 4 forwards as far as 'keepers', I would have probably rated them 1-outlaw, 2-jones, 3-frye, 4-webster.

But I've changed on that. I'm seeing that Jones doesn't help the blazers a lot if his shot isn't falling, so I'd switch webster at #2 for jones.

LMA and Webster as starters, with outlaw as the primary backup offers the best combination for portland in my view.

I think he's a hugely valuable reserve for us or any other team, but he's not a starter for a good team. At least not at this point. With his bbIQ, I don't see that happening.

[Walton'sBeard!]

I think you are all wrong. Where is this "he is only good at PF" coming from? Is it because he has had to play out of position most of the year? If you watch closely you would see he still plays SF when he is in, but the Blazers play a small line up (PG, PG, SF, SF, PF). Yes, Travis plays D against bigger players, but it is out of need.

He is a decent defender. Not the greatest, but for now he is one of our best. He is no Bruce Bowen, but if the opposing team's SF has the ball with 10 seconds left Travis would defend him better than anyone else.

Frankly, I think he should be starting again. He was starting at the beginning of the preseason until Martell had a couple huge games. Due to the recent struggles I think Portland should shake things up a bit and return Travis to the starting lineup and it would be good practice for next year.

Next year we should see players returning to their natural positions with Frye going back to PF and Outlaw back to SF.

[cucad8]

I think you are all wrong. Where is this "he is only good at PF" coming from? Is it because he has had to play out of position most of the year? If you watch closely you would see he still plays SF when he is in, but the Blazers play a small line up (PG, PG, SF, SF, PF). Yes, Travis plays D against bigger players, but it is out of need.

He is a decent defender. Not the greatest, but for now he is one of our best. He is no Bruce Bowen, but if the opposing team's SF has the ball with 10 seconds left Travis would defend him better than anyone else.

Frankly, I think he should be starting again. He was starting at the beginning of the preseason until Martell had a couple huge games. Due to the recent struggles I think Portland should shake things up a bit and return Travis to the starting lineup and it would be good practice for next year.

Next year we should see players returning to their natural positions with Frye going back to PF and Outlaw back to SF.

Outlaw doesn't want to start. He is not comfortable starting, for whatever reason, and he told Nate that, hence Martell starting. As for him covering the opposing team's SF better than anyone, I completely disagree. As one example, since it is one of the more recent games, re-watch the Cleveland game. Martell did a half way decent job on Lebron. Much better than Travis did. The last 4 minutes or so of the game, we had Roy covering him, and he did a decent job. Other than that last drive, he did a good job of making Lebron settle for jumpers, but when they ran a pick, and it switched to Travis being on him, he was able to get to the hoop very easily. Yes, it is Lebron, nobody is going to lock him down, but Martell and Roy did much better jobs on him than Travis did. Roy was the one covering Carmelo at the end of that game, not Travis. Roy, when he tries, is probably our best man to man defender. Not Travis. Travis isn't even close. Martell would finish way ahead of Travis in that department.

[SalemStoner]

this is coming from a stoner???

Do you have a point here other than to say something completely asinine?

Look, I think a few people are missing my point on this thread... the idea isn't that I'm suggesting we trade Travis, as I do see his value. The point i'm trying to make is that over the past several weeks we've gotten to the point where we've valued his contributions more than we realistically probably should. We seem to be under the impression that Travis is as important to this teams future as anyone not named Oden or Roy. Travis is a nice piece and his personality is a good fit... but that doesn't change the fact that he has his limitations and that he will probably NEVER be our starting SF(or PF) for any reason other than injuries due to his personality and his asthema.

Basically I feel like we've been overvaluing his contributions in large part due to his 4th quarter heroics this year and the large time investment we have in him. I really don't think Travis will be as valuable for us next year unless he has either Oden or LMA on the bench for most of the 4th. That's not to say he can't be a big contributor, but we have something like 11 guys projected to be big contributors the next 2 years and really only have PT for 8 or 9 of them and it's definately not realistic to try to call 1/3 of our active roster untouchable(counting Oden as active) - which is a word that's been thrown around for Travis far far too much lately.

[Walton'sBeard!]

-= original quote snipped =-



Outlaw doesn't want to start. He is not comfortable starting, for whatever reason, and he told Nate that, hence Martell starting. As for him covering the opposing team's SF better than anyone, I completely disagree. As one example, since it is one of the more recent games, re-watch the Cleveland game. Martell did a half way decent job on Lebron. Much better than Travis did. The last 4 minutes or so of the game, we had Roy covering him, and he did a decent job. Other than that last drive, he did a good job of making Lebron settle for jumpers, but when they ran a pick, and it switched to Travis being on him, he was able to get to the hoop very easily. Yes, it is Lebron, nobody is going to lock him down, but Martell and Roy did much better jobs on him than Travis did. Roy was the one covering Carmelo at the end of that game, not Travis. Roy, when he tries, is probably our best man to man defender. Not Travis. Travis isn't even close. Martell would finish way ahead of Travis in that department.

Well, I completely disagree with your complete disagreement. I saw Roy guarding Lebron most of the 4th (especially the last 4 minutes) and he was horrible (17 pts!). No way Travis could have done worse. As far as Carmelo, I believe Brandon came over on help D primarily, as he should against a player of that caliber. And it was Travis who made the clinching block on Klieza if memory serves.

Anyway, taking two games against Carmelo and Lebron out of context of the entire season is asinine. I see him consistantly hustling for loose balls; tipping the ball; blocking shots and generally disrupting other teams. Does he have room to improve? Absolutely, but at the moment I believe he is our best defender at SF. You only seem to see his occasional youthful mistakes.

EDIT: Argh! Back to back posts using the word "asinine"! Accidental I promise.

[SalemStoner]

I think you are all wrong. Where is this "he is only good at PF" coming from? Is it because he has had to play out of position most of the year? If you watch closely you would see he still plays SF when he is in, but the Blazers play a small line up (PG, PG, SF, SF, PF). Yes, Travis plays D against bigger players, but it is out of need.

He is a decent defender. Not the greatest, but for now he is one of our best. He is no Bruce Bowen, but if the opposing team's SF has the ball with 10 seconds left Travis would defend him better than anyone else.

Frankly, I think he should be starting again. He was starting at the beginning of the preseason until Martell had a couple huge games. Due to the recent struggles I think Portland should shake things up a bit and return Travis to the starting lineup and it would be good practice for next year.

Next year we should see players returning to their natural positions with Frye going back to PF and Outlaw back to SF.

Great so you're saying we get to go back to watching Travis try to get by the same SFs who blow by him on the other end of the court next year? Grrreat...

Outlaw is better at PF offensively because he can outquick even quick PFs, and he's strong enough to bang with most PFs so long as they aren't exceptionally physical. Defensively he's better playing PF because it keeps him closer to the basket for help side D - which is the only part of defense he isn't bad to awful at.

Outlaw isn't a very good SF because he's not fast enough to get by most SFs, and his length is becoming a much smaller advantage against other SFs around the league(look at Prince, JHoward, Durant(SG yeah whatever), Rashard, etc.). SFs are at this point in the NBA almost as tall and long as PFs, but with more quickness and spending more time on the wings... And the wings without the ball is where Travis still pretty worthless on offense due to his still lacking bball IQ. Travis has little to no effect on offense when the ball isn't in his hands, which is one reason he's forced to be a bench player. The biggest reason Outlaw isn't a good SF offensively however is that he still hasn't figured out how to post smaller SFs effectively and still tries to take them out on the wing where he has a much smaller advantage.

I think the real question at this point is why the hell do people still hold onto the notion that Outlaw is anything OTHER than a PF who can play SF occasionally. Defensively he's much better off closer to the basket, and offensively his only real "skills" at this point is driving on slower footed 4s and 5s or trying to shoot over shorter 2s and 3s. Neither of which really makes me go "wow this kid is so good we HAVE to keep him."

[cucad8]

Well, if you actually read my post, you would see where I said that Roy did a good job of making Lebron settle for jumpers, whereas when they switched, and Travis was on him, he got to the hoop with ease. Lebron shoots 29% from 3. Every time, I want him taking 3s over shooting from 3 feet away. Every time. If you feel otherwise because he got hot and hit those against us, that seems pretty crazy to me. Roy played D on him well enough to force him into long shots, which is what you want to do. Lebron scored 17 points in the quarter. Not every single time did he get them with Roy on him.
And it isn't occasional youthful mistakes. It is his game. It isn't "just occasional" that he fails to box out, and it isn't "just occasional" that he gets beat by a SF to the rim. I have watched every single game this year, and it isn't just occasion. Certainly he can get better, I am not saying he has peaked, but I agree with the assesment he is overrated, and that being over rated shows in a thread where he is called a lock down, and even good defender. That doesn't jive with the actual games being played.

[Walton'sBeard!]

Great so you're saying we get to go back to watching Travis try to get by the same SFs who blow by him on the other end of the court next year? Grrreat...

Perhaps you are watching Bo Outlaw, because I rarely see any player "blow by" Travis. Work for ESPN?

Outlaw is better at PF offensively because he can outquick even quick PFs, and he's strong enough to bang with most PFs so long as they aren't exceptionally physical. Defensively he's better playing PF because it keeps him closer to the basket for help side D - which is the only part of defense he isn't bad to awful at.

You're simply wrong, on all counts. He never bangs with opposing small forwards. He either shoots over them or "blows by" them ala a typical SF. He is frequently guarded by PF because of small lineup I previously mentioned, but his game is similar even on the rare occasion that he has a SF guarding him. And finally if his defense was remotely as bad as you say there is no way he would be getting the minutes he does. Nate wouldn't stand for a low rent, young player getting loads of minutes while playing "awful" D.

Outlaw isn't a very good SF because he's not fast enough to get by most SFs, and his length is becoming a much smaller advantage against other SFs around the league(look at Prince, JHoward, Durant(SG yeah whatever), Rashard, etc.). SFs are at this point in the NBA almost as tall and long as PFs, but with more quickness and spending more time on the wings... And the wings without the ball is where Travis still pretty worthless on offense due to his still lacking bball IQ. Travis has little to no effect on offense when the ball isn't in his hands, which is one reason he's forced to be a bench player. The biggest reason Outlaw isn't a good SF offensively however is that he still hasn't figured out how to post smaller SFs effectively and still tries to take them out on the wing where he has a much smaller advantage.

Tall SF's in the NBA is not a new thing. Bird, Dr J, Garnett (in the 90's) etc. As I said in my original post, Travis has areas where he needs to improve, but he is not nearly as bad as you make him out to be. He is certainly starter worthy. If KP can find an upgrade for next year then great. But right now he outplays Martell nightly, the Blazers play better with him on the court and I think he should be starting because it might help Portland break out of this slump.

I think the real question at this point is why the hell do people still hold onto the notion that Outlaw is anything OTHER than a PF who can play SF occasionally. Defensively he's much better off closer to the basket, and offensively his only real "skills" at this point is driving on slower footed 4s and 5s or trying to shoot over shorter 2s and 3s. Neither of which really makes me go "wow this kid is so good we HAVE to keep him."

I don't know, maybe because that is the position he has played 95% of his career (and still plays now I would argue). Maybe because of his skill set (or "skill" set, as you would say). Maybe because of his size and body type.

You seem puzzled why people like Outlaw, the guy who has hit multiple game changing shots, the guy who hustles the most on a nightly basis, the guy who does anything the team asks of him. I really want to know why you hate him.

[cucad8]

Why is it if someone says someone is over rated, that immediately equates for you to mean they hate him? Where did he say he hates him? Because he is able to pick out flaws about someone, that means he dislikes them? No. He, and others, have said he is over rated. If he is talked about as being untouchable next to Roy, Oden, and Aldridge, then he is most certainly over rated.