The Eastern Conference is splitting in two

[Hank_Scorpio]

Its not all that surprising, but the trend at the moment is somewhat astounding.

http://www.nba.com/standings/team_recor ... d_Cnf.html

The top 6 teams in the East all have records of .500 or better over their last 10 games.

The bottom 9 teams in the East all have records below .500 in their last 10 games.

There is now a 4.5 game gap between Washington in 6th and New Jersey in 7th.

So I have some mixed feelings about this. The good news is that at least its not the entire conference that sucks anymore. Boston and Detroit are legitimate championship contenders - and Orlando, Cleveland, Toronto and Washington can compete with any team in the league on any given night. And consider that Washington is doing it all without their best player.

But the bottom of the conference is just sad.

I think most of us expected Philadelphia to struggle, and Charlotte as well. New York and Miami are just pathetic. New Jersey was playing well at the end of the year - winning 8 of 10 before losing 9 straight. Now, despite wins against Milwaukee and Miami, they still look pathetic.

The saddest teams, however, are Milwaukee and Indiana. 2 seasons ago, Milwaukee was a team on the rise - Redd, Simmons, Ford, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut - this was a young team that had pushed itself to the playoffs. Now they just suck. And the Pacers were a 61 win team in 2003-04 and have gotten steadily worse every year since - and they are on pace to continue that trend.

And, of course, there is Chicago - a team that was expected to compete for the #2 seed that will be lucky to make the playoffs.

The ONLY bright spot among this group is Atlanta - and even that is a stretch. but when you consider that they have

Childress: 24
Horford: 21
Johnson: 26
Law: 22
Pachulia: 23
Smith: 22
Marvin: 21

you can see that there is reason for optimism. Of course, when you consider that they could have had Paul AND Roy instead of Marvin and Shelden Williams, it takes a little luster of the shine, but otherwise, its a promising young group.

So we are really talking about a "Tale of Two Conferences". One that is good and improving and one that is bad and appears to be getting worse.

[kelso]

Who would have picked Miami to be batting .200 at this point of the season? The Knicks I can understand, but the likes of Charlotte, Milwaukee, and especially Chicago should all be doing better.

From the top group, based on play to this point in the season, I think Toronto is weakest of that group. As you mentioned, Washington is there without Arenas and they have played without Caron Butler as of late as well. Cleveland has LeBron, Detroit and Boston are there to stay and Orlando (who doesn't get nearly the press as the other teams do) is a great team. I don't understand how Toronto is doing it to be honest, especially without TJ, Bargnani has been less than advertised, Kapono hasn't been lighting it up as expected and we have no inside presence at all whatsoever. I keep waiting for BC to make a move but nothing will probably happen until we know for certain what the deal is with TJ.

As good as Boston has been, its still Detroit that scares me the most.

[mapko81]

I just hope it continues. No worse than 6th seed for the Raptors means avoiding Detroit and Boston in the 1st round.

[daswunderboy]

the team that I feel bad for is the Bucks. At the time of Bogut's draft, they had Ford and Mo, so they didn't go for the two stud PG's in Paul and Deron. They got a guy who will be good, maybe make a few all-star games in off years, but never be great.

Then they trade Ford and are left with a SG as a point guard. The guy they get for Ford doesn't play anywhere near as good as he did in Toronto. And they are paying Max money to a 8 million dollar a year talent.

Babcock was bad. This guy is awful.

[Bryans_Collar]

Honest question

Outside of Boston or Detroit, would you take any eastern conf team vs any western conf team in the top 8 in a best of 7?

Hell, I'd take the 9th and 10th teams in the West over the rest of the east in a best of 7.

EDIT - there are a couple of scenarios where maybe this won't hold, ie. I'd take Orlando over GS I think

[Social Lubrication]

the team that I feel bad for is the Bucks. At the time of Bogut's draft, they had Ford and Mo, so they didn't go for the two stud PG's in Paul and Deron. They got a guy who will be good, maybe make a few all-star games in off years, but never be great.

Then they trade Ford and are left with a SG as a point guard. The guy they get for Ford doesn't play anywhere near as good as he did in Toronto. And they are paying Max money to a 8 million dollar a year talent.

Babcock was bad. This guy is awful.

You forgot to mention that they're in cap hell.

[JD225]

Honest question

Outside of Boston or Detroit, would you take any eastern conf team vs any western conf team in the top 8 in a best of 7?

Hell, I'd take the 9th and 10th teams in the West over the rest of the east in a best of 7.

EDIT - there are a couple of scenarios where maybe this won't hold, ie. I'd take Orlando over GS I think

The best 4th quarter player in the league might have something to say about that. Lebron has made some pretty big strides in one year. My guess is many teams in the West wouldn't stand a chance against him and the Cavs rebounders.

Their style is very effective come playoff time.

[Rooster]

There are some great draft prospects coming up, which could help the East. I really don't think things are all that bad. The teams out West aren't all sunshine anyway.

Denver
Once AI/Camby go down with injuries, that team is cooked. IMO they're hurt most by the Lakers acquiring Gasol. Looking at their cap situation, it isn't too pretty. No flexibility at all... they're chained to their core, which is good in that those three guys are immensely talented but bad in that two of them are 30+ and they literally have no one else. K-Mart and Nene combined are $22M per year for one good PF at any one time and consider this scary fact: if AI so much as has the flu, their starting backcourt becomes Chucky Atkins and JR Smith. Past this season and next, I don't see them being good for a long time.

Houston
I just don't see what everyone else does in this team. Throw all the strength of schedule, efficiency, etc. you want at me but the fact remains that this team has never passed the first round and doesn't seem to have the makeup to do so. Aside from T-Mac and Yao, there isn't much - Battier might be the RealGM MOP (Most Overrated Player) and the PG situation is surprisingly weak considering they have five of them. Scola doesn't look like he fits there, Hayes isn't really a starter imo and they have no one else up front anyway.

Phoenix
That management team has made some terrible decisions. The four firsts that team has squandered (Rondo, Fernandez, two to Seattle) would be making, all combined, as much as Marcus Banks. Kurt Thomas will be a painful loss come playoff time, especially with Gasol on the Lakers now. Their cap situation is pretty bad too, and Nash can only last so long. That team will be facing a world of hurt in a couple years.

San Antonio
This would be an appropriate time for Pops et al. to start working that magic again. Other than Splitter coming over, which is both awesome and unfair, there's no indication of that team getting a good young player anytime soon. Timmy is getting gimpy, Manu is 30, a lot of those guys are over the hill... if they don't make a move, they could decline surprisingly sharply. Parker and Splitter is just not enough to carry a team.

New Orleans
They have some great pieces in place along with the record to prove it but that team will need wing depth before it can go to the Finals. Mo and Peja will simply not stand the test of time - the former will be a nice 6th man for them and the latter will be a great expiring contract in a few years but not yet. This team has by far the brightest outlook of those I've mentioned (and one of the brightest in the league) but it will still require work. This isn't the Lakers where the rotation is basically set for half-decade beyond replacing Fisher. There will be glaring holes between 6' and 6'9" on that team so watch how they act in terms of the MLE and the trade market.

Dallas
Dampier and Stackhouse are both feeling the effects of their careers, the latter more noticeably. That team will have holes though - the PG position lacks a true playmaker, the SG position is terrible and the C position is a question mark once Damp's knees give out, especially if Diop leaves for greener pastures this summer. The fact that their management has done absolutely nothing to replace Michael Finley of all people should be telling. (No, I don't count hiring an assistant coach... I mean, shooting guard... in Eddie Jones.) This is a team on the decline that might make a last stand soon. It's why Kidd's wanted there because he sure won't be around in a few years.

Golden State
Unfortunately, I don't know much about these guys because they play so late but I'll say this much: they're a good team with a bright future hinging on a $15M per year PG with a bad back. Other than Baron, their players look good but not great. If they can do well, all the more power to them. I'm still not seeing WCF appearances though. That team either needs Wright to develop a lot, needs Biedrins to start averaging 15PPG or needs another (well, one I guess) All-Star.

--------

The only team without a significant problem of some kind in the West is the Lakers, and that's only because of yesterday's events. Portland too, but let's not even get started on them.

2010 could be different, folks.

As for Orlando, don't kid yourself - aside from Howard, who they didn't exactly get through an abundance of skill (in fact, you could say it was the opposite), that is one terrible team. Jameer/Arroyo at PG, Bogans/Evans/Redick at SG, Lewis making $20M per... that's a team that needs to make some very wise moves this deadline and this offseason. If so, they could be dangerous. I just don't have that much faith in Otis Smith though.

[daswunderboy]

-= original quote snipped =-



You forgot to mention that they're in cap hell.

Cap hell and they don't even have a true star player. Gotta hurt for the fans. I say they try to trade Red to the Cav's for some picks/expirings. Maybe make it a 3 team trade where they swing Hughes and Mo to a team like Miami for someone young and Jason Williams (expires this year).

Then try to draft Beasley or Rose this year. They need a massive change. And it starts at the top.

[Raptolicism]

As a Raps fan from the start, I know that nothing is a guarantee with this team; but it's a really nice feeling having this cushion between the top 6 and the rest of the east.

[Bosh-Tyme]

Who would have picked Miami to be batting .200 at this point of the season? The Knicks I can understand, but the likes of Charlotte, Milwaukee, and especially Chicago should all be doing better.

From the top group, based on play to this point in the season, I think Toronto is weakest of that group. As you mentioned, Washington is there without Arenas and they have played without Caron Butler as of late as well. Cleveland has LeBron, Detroit and Boston are there to stay and Orlando (who doesn't get nearly the press as the other teams do) is a great team. I don't understand how Toronto is doing it to be honest, especially without TJ, Bargnani has been less than advertised, Kapono hasn't been lighting it up as expected and we have no inside presence at all whatsoever. I keep waiting for BC to make a move but nothing will probably happen until we know for certain what the deal is with TJ.

As good as Boston has been, its still Detroit that scares me the most.

I knew Miami was going to be horrible this year i have hated them since they won there championship

[The Duke]

So we are really talking about a "Tale of Two Conferences".

Seems more then the "Two Tales of One Conference"

[Blazing_royale]

raptors can't beat legitimate teams.

[FoDrizzle]

Good analysis Rooster. I agree mostly, especially with the Orlando analysis.

I think people are making the Magic out to be better than they actually are. We all knew Rashard is not going to play up to his money, and he clearly hasn't. Turko has been better as the SF, but he is not a dominant star player type when it comes to some tough match-ups. D12 has exploded this season, which is a big reason for the Magic's improvement in their record, but eventually, Howard's lack of offensive variety and skill will show and that will expose Orlando's limits. I see the Magic as a soft side that can be taken down by even the weaker teams on any given night, I just don't see them getting past first round, if they are going to be stuck with the 4th seed.

Also, I believe Golden State to be a dangerous team. They are an extremely athletic and talented team that is well-coached. They cause some major match-up problems against most teams in the league with the size of Baron and SJ and the athleticism of Biedrins and Mota, and on top of that they have a young but decent bench with some good depth. GS also has very good home support so I can that being a difficult place to play for other teams in playoff time. I think Golden State can cause some upsets, and depending on who they are matched up against, they should be able to make it to round 2 again.

But all in all, I have the Lakers and the Cavs as the locks for the Final right now. I'd pick the Pistons for the East but LBJ proved me wrong last season, and I just don't think Boston has the depth to do it.

[FoDrizzle]

raptors can't beat legitimate teams.

Agreed. The Raptors are too soft mentally. We are a "good guys" team that lacks the swagger and toughness to match up agains the big teams, especially the well-coached ones (Jazz, Warriors, Suns, Pistons, etc.). This weakness is especially represented by our franchise player Chris Bosh's tameness at the hands of an NBA bad ass veteran none other than 'Sheed.

I have my fingers crossed that the Raptors will avoid Detroit and Cleveland in the playoffs, because those match-ups have 4-0 written all over them. If we have to face one of the teams with good record, it has to be Orlando. The Magic is very beatable.

[Rooster]

Thanks, FoDrizzle. I agree with you on all of those points except that I don't think depth will be that much of a concern for Boston. They've already looked pretty good while injured and, bizarre as it seems, they seem to have been getting their injuries at the right time so to speak. I think the Gasol trade makes it look like a Celtics/Lakers Finals. LeBron and Z need a third banana imo, although I guess we'll see what happens to Kidd/Carter at the deadline. (Yes, I think VC in Cleveland would be perfect.)

A team I think has a great future if only it would make a huge trade is the Hawks. That's a team that can parlay some of its young talent (not Johnson/Horford) into a serious PG/SF/C. I see that as a team that has its starting SG and PF spots locked up pretty much forever but can work with everything else. Consequence and I were mentioning back in the fall that a Smith/Speedy/EXP for Bibby/Artest deal could work, or something of that sort. A couple vets could make that team more dangerous than it's been since the Mookie/Smith/Deke days.

The Raptors are definitely too soft and that's why I want an enforcer on our team, either at SF or C. If JO weren't making $20M per season, I'd want him for sure. (Still might...) It'd just be nice to have that guy who gets in Anthony Johnson's face when he whacks Jose on the head, you know?

[i-lion]

The top 8 teams in the east right now are

1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Orlando
4. Cleveland
5. Toronto
6. Washington

7. New Jersey
8. Atlanta

Honestly i think if the playoffs started tomorrow it wouldn't be looking very bad for us in the first round. We would verse Cleveland a team that could beat us come playoff time since they are one of the best rebounding teams right now and that's what we really suck at REBOUNDS. So if we faced cleveland i would guarantee a Loss in the first round. I even see washington giving us a big challange if we face them in the first round. Especially if Arenas comes back. Like someone else said the only teams we are likely to beat is Orlando and the bottom 2 teams of the east.
Im surprised no one is talking about Detroit they have a very good shot at ending up first in the conference and i think have a very good shot at winning it all.

[chuckerz]

raptors can't beat legitimate teams.

well we did beat Dallas, San Antonio and Boston didn't we???

[basketball royalty]

I think you can actually split the East into three parts:

Boston and Detroit


Cleveland, Orlando, Washington, Toronto


Everybody else.

If the Cavs can make a move to get another star player in the mix, they would probably join the first group.

[chuckerz]

This was mentioned on ESPN last year. To recapitulate, there should be no conferences since it's more competitive in the West than in the East so just take the top 16 teams in both conferences and match them up in the playoffs. So it would look like:

1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Phoenix
4- New Orleans
5- Dallas
6- San Antonio
7- Lakers
8- Orlando
9- Utah
10- Golden State
11- Denver
12- Portland
13- Houston
14- Cleveland
15- Toronto
16- Washington

It would be fair for the West teams who deserve to make the playoffs that are better than the east teams like Atlanta and New Jersey. Currently, Houston and Portland are above 0.500 and aren't even in the playoffs if the season ended today. But this format would definitely suck for the Raps.