The Retooling Thread: What do we do now

[djthesonicsfan]

1. S Marion isn't opting out because he won't get $17M anywhere next year.

2. D Wade taking the year off?! Not a chance.

[DBurks2818]

I see this as next year's roster:

PG- Rose* or Quinn/Banks/
SG- Wade/Cook
SF- Marion/Wright
PF- Haslem/AJ/Beasley*
C- FA(Kurt Thomas?)/Draft #2/Anthony

[Charcoal Filtered]

How much was Vince Carter's option for last year? Looking at the money that Rashard Lewis and Vince got last year, I would be very surprised if Marion does not opt out and sign a long term deal with someone. He may not match the money he would have made next year, but the long term security is well worth it.

[Hoops23]

marion will probably prevent you guys from having a top 3 pick.

wolves, seattle, knicks, grizzlies should be happy

I thought the top 3 pick in the draft are determined through the lottery. Are you telling us Miami will make the playoffs? :LOL:

[travis minor]

im not sure ill be dissapointed if marion doesn't opt out to go play for a contender

excellent defender, excellent rebounder, probably is already the best 3 point shooter we have, and can run the break, which is the type of offense i enjoy watching

he can even play some 4 in the east in small lineups

[pmoney31]

Marion won't opt out because no one has that kind of money to offer him even Memphis and Philly. I think that they should try and trade J-Will and/or Davis for a big man right now something like the two of them for Samuel Dalembert or maybe pick up a center prospect like Hilton Armstrong for N.O. who has played well with minutes. Otherwise if we keep Marion and Dorell and get a top 5 pick we will basically only have a mid-level to work with. So Riley would be well advised to use those 2 expirings to get a center for the future imo. Then they can use the mid-level on whatever they need and the draft pick on either Rose or Beasley more likely Rose.

[Flash is the Future]

I believe Dorell's caphold is 300% of his salary this year, or $6,122,238.

[G.cracker]

Here is a question I have that someone with better CBA knowledge can help with.

Let's assume Marion opts in and we get a real sense of our tandem next year when Wade's knee will be better. I'm assuming so because no one will pay him $17M and he is young enough that a longer deal is still achievable a year from now. Then we get a good pick for a primary need (PG or C) and fill the other with an MLE guy with a 3 year deal, the third year being a team option (possible?). If this tandem is what we want long term and we want to resign Marion, but have the flexibility to add another max player in 2010 in addition to resigning Wade and possibly UD and the MLE we sign this summer, can we sign Marion to a contract similar to the LO deal with a balloon payment in 2009-2010, a big drop the next year, and then two more at higher rates?

So, using a 4 year $60 extension (similar to Vince Carter deal)
$14M - $10 - $18 - $18

Thus allowing us to have only about $15M on the books with this deal and DQ, 08 pick, plus holds for Wade, UD, potential MLE, which we can go over the cap to sign.

[Flash is the Future]

I'm pretty sure that you can't jump from 10 to 18 million that suddenly.

[HEATVols865]

Riley better do something quick!
I saw Wade on ESPN talking about it and he's PISSED!!!
In 2010 we may only have to worry about re-signing UD because Wade may take his game to Chicago...

[TheGreatPooter]

so after about 2848 million lost games, NOW youre pissed? get real.

[HeatSince88]

Alright here goes...

Now most are in the know that Marion has $17,810,000 player option next season. If he uses it..

Miami's salary situaion as follows(my math could be off a little bit, didn't recheck)-


Dwyane Wade-$14,410,581
Mark Blount-$8,513,916
Udonis Haslem-$6,575,000
Marcus Banks-$4,260,000
Smush Parker-$2,430,000(player opt.)
Dorell Wright $2,910,104(cap hold)
Daequan Cook-$1,273,200

= 40,003,555

If Miami renounces Dorell Wright's 2.9 milliion dollar cap hold, Miami would then be at about 38 mil and some change....

Salary cap is projected is in between around 58-59 million next season...


We would be projected to be about 21 milion under the salary cap next season...

So basically, I'm sure Riley is going to see how Marion fits in the grand scheme of things, and if looks good? He'll be re-signed to a reasonable deal. If not, they'll part ways and look towards the market(as I anticipate)...

Either way, it's good money all around.

+ Lottery pick incomming..

Just a terrible year from a competitive standpoint this year, but there is some light busting through at the end of the tunnel. No doubt about it....

This trade is unreal..Unreal.

Nice! But I think there's a few items you didn't account for. Cap room would be more like $15 million if Marion opts out and is renounced, and Dorell, Ricky, J-Will, Quinn, Barron, Johnson, Anthony are all renounced.

Salary of Our #1 Pick
If we get our wet dream of #1 overall, that's about $4 million off your cap number. Even at #5 overall, that's around $3 million off.

Cap Holds for Other Roster Spots
When you have less than 12 players under contract, there is a cap charge equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. In your scenario, that leaves us with 4 cap holds at the rate of $442,00 each. So $1.76 million less in cap room.

So take your $21 million calculation, subtract about $5.7 million, and we're left with about $15 million -- just enough for an Elton Brand or a veteran of that ilk. Then you're left with nothing but minimum contracts to fill out the rotation ...

PG - #1 pick / Banks
SG - Wade / Cook
SF - minimum player / minimum player
PF - Haslem / minimum player
C - Brand / Blount

or perhaps

PG - Banks / Smush
SG - Wade / Cook
SF - #1 pick / minimum
PF - Haslem / minimum
C - Brand / Blount

or perhaps

PG - Arenas / Banks
SG - Wade / Cook
SF - #1 pick / minimum
PF - Haslem / minimum
C- Blount / minimum

And that's the extent of the rebuilding right there. No cap room unless Wade opts out and leaves. No significant draft picks since those are decent teams. And, sadly, probably no championships.

Essentially, if it were a trade, it would look like this ...

HEAT TRADES
- Shawn Marion
- Dorell Wright
- Ricky Davis
- Jason Williams
- Chris Quinn
- and some scrubs (Barron, Johnson, etc)

HEAT GETS:
- Elton Brand
- and some scrubs (minimum contract guys)

[CRHeel94]

That's why I'm saying we need to move JWill and Ricky ASAP. Hopefully you can get a starter for their expiring contracts, but if not I would trade them in for some more chips that you can deal later.

That assumes that Arison would tolerate that cap number. He could very well order the FO to "eat" JWill and Davis contracts and lower our total payroll for next year.

[HEATVols865]

Could we trade JWill and Ricky for Brand?

Brand, UD, Marion, Wade and Banks looks good to me.

[CRHeel94]

We could in theory, but I don't think we have the assets to get it done. Then again it's the Clippers so anything is possible. I would have to guess that we would have to take on one of their crappy contracts, so something like

Davis/JWill/Haslem/Wight
for
Brand/Mobley

They would end up having a ton of cap space that they could throw at Gilbert Arenas. You can have other varieties that might work if they'd rather move say Tim Thomas. The key would be for Brand to tell Clippers management that he's bolting this summer.

BTW, Brand is not a 5.

[HeatSince88]

Could we trade JWill and Ricky for Brand?

Brand, UD, Marion, Wade and Banks looks good to me.

Would you do that deal if your were LA? Clips owner Donald Sterling on Brand two weeks ago:

"One, based on my conversation with Elton, he's not going to opt out," Sterling told the Los Angeles Times. "And two, whatever he asks for, I think he deserves. He is our franchise player; we need him. You saw a short time ago we were pretty close to being a special team, and now without him you see how difficult it is."
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archi ... o_opt_out/

Doesn't sound like a guy he would trade for trash, even if it's expiring trash.

Even if he did want to, I'm sure other teams could put together packages based around a high draft pick (we can't trade ours right now), a young stud (which we have none of outside Wade), and expirings. Like Seattle could do Jeff Green, a protected #1, and Kurt Thomas's contract.

[HeatSince88]

BTW, Brand is not a 5.

Right, I was putting him there because I assume if our power rotation was Haslem, Brand, and Blount that either Brand or Haslem would have to play some center. Unless of course Blount plays 48 minutes a game at center and Brand/Haslem split 24 minutes each at PF.

They're both 6'8, but Brand is stronger with longer arms, so I slotted him in for some minutes at center instead of Haslem.

I guess it further illustrates that the whole "Marion opts out, we sign Brand, and we're awsome" line of thinking is pretty flawed in our team's current construction. More deals need to be made.

[CRHeel94]

Oh no, I agree, the Clippers wouldn't and shouldn't do that deal. The only long shot is if Brand asks for it and I don't think he would.

I do agree with your conclusion. Riley needs to be agressive in these next two weeks...with pretty much anyone available (except Wade of course).

[OAKTREE NYK1]

Just wondering now that Shaq is gone if it would still be worth while to go after a PG like Mike Bibby. Jason Williams and Ricky Davis should do the trick since it would get 14 million bucks off of Sacramento's hands. Bibby and Marion are the same age so put them together with Wade and I would say we would have a formidable lineup much better then lets say a team like Jersey and there big three. Add a guy like Beasley into that equation and boy we might be seeing playoffs sooner then we think and this whole rebuilding process done in one season. Plus Bibby only has one more year into his contract so it's not like we are strapped with a long term deal. Thoughts would be great on this.

[heat4life]

No. Bibby and his contract doesn't make sense anymore. We are rebuilding and I just don't see him as a piece that would make us better. If we are going to move our expirings, we need a front court player that can protect the paint and bang down low. If we can't find one then IMO is better to let those contracts expire and pick from the pool of FA's a better fit.