Why I think we should Trade Gomes for the ATL Pick

[shrink]

With today's trade, PHO's pick has become less valuable. The Hawks are already the 7th seed in the East, and they'll probably move up a couple spots (but still never catch the 8th seed in the competitive West) Without Marion, the Suns really need a SF that can shoot. with Shaq's limited window, they need one that can produce now. And with a cash conscious owner, they need one that's cheap. I think they'd accept a trade of Gomes for the Pick

But should we? Even though Ryan Gomes is my favorite Wolf, I say Yes. I expect this will be a very unpopular view with most wolves fans, but let me try to demonstrate my thinking with a Decision Tree and some guesses at the probabilities of the rest of the season:

IF WE TRADE GOMES FOR THE PICK:

#1 90% .. chance that the ATL pick is between 15-19
10% .. chance disaster happens and ATL pick falls in the lottery -- VALUE

#2 Trading Gomes gets us a better chance at more ping pong balls in the draft.

80% .. chance we have the worst record in the NBA:
-- a. MIA is only one game worse than us, and seems rejuvenated with Marion
-- b. We have a 3 and 3.5 game lead (?) on SEA and MEM, and they hold tiebreakers
-- c. We'd be playing without gomes

Here's our chances at the lottery, the worse we do this season:

TEAM 1000 PICK 1 PICK 2 PICK 3
Team 1 250 25.00% 21.51% 17.77%
Team 2 199 19.90% 18.81% 17.12%
Team 3 156 15.60% 15.74% 15.59%
Team 4 119 11.90% 12.60% 13.30%

#3 More Playing Time for Corey Brewer

#4 We are trading to PHOENIX who doesn't like to spend money. Of any team we could send him, they are the most likely to decide this summer that they do not want to match OUR decent offer to bring him back.

#5 Even if we can't get him back, there's still some upside. We'd save the money under the lux to bring back anyone we chose, and check out a mid-priced free agent big, like Diop or Patrick O'Bryant

#6 Even if we keep Gomes, maybe there's a 20% chance we get outbid, and lose him for nothing.

[shrink]

:: awaiting the tar and feathers ::

[Klomp]

I think I would probably do that deal, although hesitantly.

[deeney0]

I understand where you're coming from, and I don't think this post is going to end up supporting or refuting your overall theme.

I greatly disagree with stating the Wolves have an 80% shot at the worst record in the NBA. I don't think Miami looks particularly rejuvenated with Marion. They haven't won a game since the trade. Wolves are the team that looked like they were finally getting it until the latest Boston loss, which momentarily deflated them. I expect them back to come back in form after the break and end up with the 3rd or 4th worst record in the NBA. I'd put the chances of ending up with the worst record at 25%.

I don't think Memphis will hold the tiebreaker by the end of the season, either. We play them twice (three times?) more and they'll be trying to lose those with earnest.

If Wolves trade Gomes, it won't be with the intention to resign him in the offseason. If he's traded, he's as good as gone. There's little/no precedent for the "if we trade him, he'll still choose to sign with us in the offseason" theory.

Wolves have the choice to resign Gomes or sign another free agent regardless of this trade, so I don't see that as a positive.

The value in question is Gomes vs. the Atlanta pick, circa #18. If the Wolves trade Gomes, Brewer and Jaric are the only players on this roster who can play SF.

My thinking is that, assuming the Wolves don't get a top 2 pick, they would address their need at C with the early lotto pick, although there certainly is strong incentive just to take the best player available, which I'll address in a minute. But taking a C leaves them with a real nice 9 man rotation (I'd draft Hibbert and list the starters as Telfair/McCants/Gomes/Jefferson/Hibbert with Foye/Brewer/Jaric/Smith off the bench, but which C to take and who would start are certainly debatable).

(With a top two pick, Wolves take Beasley or Rose, and all bets are off. Trades would be necessary. )

Trading Gomes leaves a hole at SF, one which would undoubtedly be filled with the acquired pick. I'm of the opinion that this draft class is weak at SF. I'd rather just keep Gomes. At least if Smith were the one being traded, there's quite a bit of big man depth in this draft - but I'm in favor of keeping Craigers too.

If the Wolves feel the bes player available when they are picking isn't a 5, there is strong incentive to go BPA. Trade or no, they've got 2 early 2nds this year and are poised for 3 first round picks next year. Assuming Telfair, Smith, and Richard are retained (and Gomes if he's not traded), that's an astounding 14 players under 26 on the roster after the the 2009 draft (+Madsen and Jaric, which puts them one over the roster limit, so at least one move would have to be made assuming all three picks materialize).

All that youth might call for a consolidating move rather than a youth-for-youth move.

[wolves_fan_82au]

i think this is a great idea esp if people here are so high on beasley

we need a centre and i think theres a few decent ones around that 15-20 range

or we could pick up a decent pg in Augustine or Lawson

[the_bruce]

I glanced but #1029301930

less money on cap

[4ho5ive]

And what if Bibby returns to true form and vaults the Hawks to the #4 seed behind Bos, Det, and Orl? We may end up with a pick in the low-mid 20's. Im all for getting value and prospects, but Im sipping too much of that Gomes kool-aid right now to trade him away. No point in trading someone who hustles and gives you his all and didnt he already say he wanted to stay?

[scottyo50]

now that the hawks have aquired bibby, i feel they are almost a lock for the playoffs in the east, so the pick probably wont fall in the lottery.

Secondly, since the suns have aquired shaq, that shows they are willing to spend, to win. now, having aquired shaq, tehy may not be willing to spend more, and rightfully so with him on the books for a lot longer, BUT, if gomes becomes a useful piece for the suns, they may decide to pick him up. he may even sign for less than hes worth, for a chance at a title. its all subjective.

[shrink]

And what if Bibby returns to true form and vaults the Hawks to the #4 seed behind Bos, Det, and Orl? We may end up with a pick in the low-mid 20's.

There's no way that ATL will have a better record than any of the eight teams in the West. Right now, the 9th team in the West is at 32-20.

I suppose it's conceivable that 21-28 ATL could pass 29-23 CLE for the 4th seed in the East. Maybe the Hawks go 20-13 to finish 41-41, and the Cavs play less than 500 ball the rest of the way against mostly the East. However, there's no way they are going to catch the tail end of the Western conference. In the unlikely event the Hawks came in 4th in the East, that would still be the 19th pick. I think the best hope for the Hawks is the 6th seed, and therefore the 17th pick.

[TheYounGunz]

Making trades is not this easy.

[wolves_fan_82au]

Buckner/Gomes for Tucker/ATL 1st??????
Green/Gomes for Tucker/Atl 1st?????

[shrink]

Buckner/Gomes for Tucker/ATL 1st??????
Green/Gomes for Tucker/Atl 1st?????

I like the second one. I think Green might look better on a more established, athletic team, with a great PG getting him the ball in good situations.

The suns owner is so averse to the lux that last summer he traded a productive, expiring Kurt Thomas for a TPE, and gave away two late 1st rounders as well. I think this means that there is little chance he'll take an additional year of Buckner.

I don't know how attached the Suns are too Tucker. We can also provide more incentive to the Suns if we are willing to take a little more salary from them .. they are still about $2 mil over the lux. One problem though is that after the Shaq/Marion trade, they need to add one player to meet roster minimums. Your trade would do that .. it just adds salary this season, that they'd have to pay double for.

If you guys liked Diaw, and were brave enough to take his 4.5-year $40 mil contract, its possible to come up with a deal with him and Jaric (Jaric is the better contract, $24 mil for 3.5 years), that will also get the Suns under the lux. Diaw is BYC, so that the incoming value of his trade has to be half for salary-matching purposes. It'd be a tight squeeze for us staying under the lux this season and the next (+$3 mil for Diaw/Jaric swap + ATL pick salary $1.8 - cost of Gomes re-signing), but its possible.

[the_bruce]

I'm not fully adverse to a guy like Diaw on MN, if its in a swap w/ Jaric and returns the ATL pick, but it really needs to be in a 3 or 4 way trade to make any sort of sense.

A Diaw + tucker + atl pick for Jaric + gomes swap(and a third team taking on mn salary to make it work on our end) makes some sense.) I'm not sure if diaw has the talent to justify +2-3m a year over Jarics salary, but I think Diaw + Al could be be very unique with Diaws passing ability. I like piggy backing of the DAL/NJ trade as a basis for anything so...

Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players: Boris Diaw, Jose Juan Barea, Richard Jefferson, Maurice Ager, Brandon Bass
Outgoing Players: Ryan Gomes, Marko Jaric, Theo Ratliff, Antoine Walker

New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players: DeSagana Diop, Alando Tucker, Eddie Jones, Devin Harris, Theo Ratliff, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse
Outgoing Players: Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd

Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players: Ryan Gomes, Marko Jaric
Outgoing Players: Boris Diaw, Alando Tucker

Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players: Jason Kidd
Outgoing Players: DeSagana Diop, Jose Juan Barea, Eddie Jones, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager, Jerry Stackhouse, Brandon Bass

MN sends some the MIA pick, the ATL pick from PHX, and an early 2nd this year\or BOS pick next year to NJ. Could even ship one of McCants\Green\telfair\smith\etc to solidify the deal from our end.

MN rolls with uh...

Al
Diaw
RJ
Brewer
Foye

To me it locks up to much salary. MN doesn't lose talen, but does lose flexability which seems far more important these days. So I guess I'd need to pass on any diaw deal, but working an RJ deal might not be to bad if it only costs a few low value parts.

[TheYounGunz]

I'm not fully adverse to a guy like Diaw on MN, if its in a swap w/ Jaric and returns the ATL pick, but it really needs to be in a 3 or 4 way trade to make any sort of sense.

A Diaw + tucker + atl pick for Jaric + gomes swap(and a third team taking on mn salary to make it work on our end) makes some sense.) I'm not sure if diaw has the talent to justify +2-3m a year over Jarics salary, but I think Diaw + Al could be be very unique with Diaws passing ability. I like piggy backing of the DAL/NJ trade as a basis for anything so...

Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players: Boris Diaw, Jose Juan Barea, Richard Jefferson, Maurice Ager, Brandon Bass
Outgoing Players: Ryan Gomes, Marko Jaric, Theo Ratliff, Antoine Walker

New Jersey Nets
Incoming Players: DeSagana Diop, Alando Tucker, Eddie Jones, Devin Harris, Theo Ratliff, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse
Outgoing Players: Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd

Phoenix Suns
Incoming Players: Ryan Gomes, Marko Jaric
Outgoing Players: Boris Diaw, Alando Tucker

Dallas Mavericks
Incoming Players: Jason Kidd
Outgoing Players: DeSagana Diop, Jose Juan Barea, Eddie Jones, Devin Harris, Maurice Ager, Jerry Stackhouse, Brandon Bass

MN sends some the MIA pick, the ATL pick from PHX, and an early 2nd this year\or BOS pick next year to NJ. Could even ship one of McCants\Green\telfair\smith\etc to solidify the deal from our end.

MN rolls with uh...

Al
Diaw
RJ
Brewer
Foye

To me it locks up to much salary. MN doesn't lose talen, but does lose flexability which seems far more important these days. So I guess I'd need to pass on any diaw deal, but working an RJ deal might not be to bad if it only costs a few low value parts.

What is that a 15 player deal? Why do you guys waste your time with stuff like that

[4ho5ive]

-= original quote snipped =-



What is that a 15 player deal? Why do you guys waste your time with stuff like that

Its actually pretty fun trying to take over as "GM" and coming up with sith like this. Although this deal probably wouldnt go thru as Dallas is looking at a 10 man roster.

Kidd/Terry
Stack (when he is bought out)/Terry
Hassell/George/R.Terry (from overseas)
Dirk/???
Damp/???

And even though we get rid of both Walker and Jaric, I dont like taking on Diaw AND Jefferson. Especially losing Ratliff in the process.

[TheYounGunz]

-= original quote snipped =-



Its actually pretty fun trying to take over as "GM" and coming up with sith like this. Although this deal probably wouldnt go thru as Dallas is looking at a 10 man roster.

Kidd/Terry
Stack (when he is bought out)/Terry
Hassell/George/R.Terry (from overseas)
Dirk/???
Damp/???

And even though we get rid of both Walker and Jaric, I dont like taking on Diaw AND Jefferson. Especially losing Ratliff in the process.

Diaw/Jefferson and Jefferson would be a pretty good team i would think though

[shrink]

Setting aside Richard Jefferson for the moment, here's the two-team trade I'd offer:

PHO GETS: Ryan Gomes, Jaric, Chris Richard, Gerald Green
MIN GETS: ATL PICK (#18ish), Diaw, Tucker, Piatkowski

PHO gets huge financial gain, slips under the lux, moves Diaw's long-term contract, and actually increases their production and play-off chances.

Gomes is 16 PPG, 7 RPG since joining the starting line-up.

Diaw is a worse contract than Jaric:
Jaric PTS: 8.4

[AQuintus]

-= original quote snipped =-



Diaw/Jefferson and Jefferson would be a pretty good team i would think though

A good team sure, but good enough to win a championship? If so, this would be a deal that Minni would have to do. If not, we're right back into the situation we had with Garnett, good enough to make the playoffs (losing in the first round, most likely, and missing out on lottery impact players), but not good enough to win it all.

[the_bruce]

Setting aside Richard Jefferson for the moment, here's the two-team trade I'd offer:

PHO GETS: Ryan Gomes, Jaric, Chris Richard, Gerald Green
MIN GETS: ATL PICK (#18ish), Diaw, Tucker, Piatkowski

I don't doubt the viability of this sort of deal to PHX financially. Diaw could be a decent fit opposite Jefferson. MN will definately be spending to much on Diaw or Jaric Regardless, and I think Diaw could be a better long term fit for the wolves than Jaric. For Diaw a statline of 15\7\7 isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially opposite some easy dump offs to Al.

...on the other hands I don't think 15/5/5 is out of the question for Marco when he plays the 3, plus he is a great wing defender. I guess when it comes down to it I would weigh it vs the draft potential this year, and Al's ability to defend opposing 5's. Al surely is a dominant post scorer, but will never be able to stop elite centers(can anyone do this anyway?). It comes down to do we wear down jefferson at the 5 by making him defend the best post player, or not? I'd have to say the Al just from the sake of how good his current offensive game is would eventually end up as a VERY dominant post defender just because he knows how to score so well, so he will eventually be able to translate that into defense.

[revprodeji]

I like Gomes, but I think I would do this deal as well. It allows Phx to properly contend for a ship. Jaric would be a good point option next to barbosa. (jaric defends 2, barbosa defends 1) Diaw is a player I would like in MN also. We get a nice Atlanta pick as well.

A small ball line-up frontcourt of Jefferson+Beasley+Diaw is interesting.