Leon Powe: What took so long?

[sully00]

For those that don't want to click the link Leon is giving up an opponents PER of 7.7 at the PF spot and 29.3 at the C spot were he has played a majority of his mins. Essentially playing Leon at the 5 for 48 mins results in the opponents center spot going for 28.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.4 blks and 60% shooting. Now like anthing all stats are subject to analysis but this has to tell you something no?

[armageddon]

Interesting numbers, but if Powe doesn't play center, then he has no position. Most of those numbers probably came when KG was out so I wouldn't put much validity into them. Who was the PF when Powe was getting the majority of minutes, Scal?
I do like what I see when Powe plays strong man along side KG.

[sully00]

Why would Powe have no position if he can't play C at 6'7"? Why can't he play PF and eventually learn to guard the 3?

The only time I recall Powe and Scal getting mins together is when they started together while KG and Perk were both out and that was short lived

[Jammer]

I keep saying that the problem is center, not PF.

KG plays about 24 mpg at PF, and 11 at C.

Posey backs up Pierce at SF, and plays 12 mpg at PF.

Powe is suited for the rest at PF, but undersized for C.

Perk plays 24 mpg at C, which when added to KG's 11 mpg at C, totals 35 mpg.

That leaves 13 mpg at C for Davis.

The Celtics are getting hurt at the C.

Defensively as much as offensively.

[billfromBoston]

I want make this clear I like Leon Powe. I liked him coming into the draft, glad we picked him up in the draft and want him on the team. But that doesn't meant you can't look at this situation from all angles.

Again last night in the role of first big in the game he picks up 2 fouls in his first two mins of play. This is not uncommon for a big man, it is actually one of the first realities I learned about NBA basketball the Greg Kite rule, but it is an issue.

How often has Powe been the first big off the bench this season? I don't know, I would guess he got a good chunk of the games that KG was out and Scal started so with last night using Bills numbers about 4 of the 10-12 times he has been in the situation.

I am talking about what I am seeing with Leon in the game it isn't a stats debate but this clearly supports what I am saying so I will point to it.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS9C.HTM

I think that if you asked most people they would figure that Davis is the better offensive player and Powe the better defensive player but that really doesn't play out. With Powe we get better offense and worse defense and with Davis consistent offense and much better defense. This is almost completely tied to Powe's role he killls it offensively at either spot but he turns the opposition into Kareem when he is at the 5.

Last night we got to see Powe in the role that he needs to be in and while he kind of got burned a little but Harrington he is probably one of the best PFs in the game on the perimeter. That to me is what Leon has to learn how to contain. What he does on offense is fine and he can do that playing any position, obviously a little jumper wouldn't hurt. To me at least his future is going to be decided on his ability to guard away from the hoop against perimeter 4's and big 3's. Basically Leon has to be in a Dennis Rodman role and not a Kurt Thomas to be successful, and if he can find away to carve that out he could be very, very good.

...first off, let me tell you that I did the advance scouting for the GS/BOS game and Powe had defensive responsibility on Al Harrington twice in that game, both were on rotations and not on-man responsibility, so the eyes see what they want to see...

Secondly, I have never bought into the 82games defensive numbers because it assumes and one-to-one ratio of posessions were a player matches up against his defensive counterpart...this doesn't happen in team defense....if Powe were so bad at defense at center i'd love to know why he's a +40 there in points when he's on the court as a center...and YES, I do realize that Glen Davis is an impressive +110 at the Center spot...unfortunately, as stated above, these figures have no validity to them beyond giving a general impression that some good things are happening when they're on the court, which is obvious by watch...

-Matchups
-Rotations
-defensive errors by teammates
-lineup combinations on the court

These are all factors that are UNCONTROLLED for with the 82games figures....neither player has enough of a track history to "go to the books" and use stats to extrapolate anything...if you couple that with the FACT that most any scout you talk to will mention Powe's defensive fundamentals as one of their first points of emphasis, I have trouble going with the "he can't defend" theory based off the 100+ minutes of data that these figures are based off of...

...and we're not even getting into the problems with the actual collection of the data that 82games uses...its not like they're scouting the games and recording the results...they use the ISN play-by-play feed to categorize what's going on...the margin for error here is huge...If Perk comes out and Powe comes in, that instantly makes Powe the "center" in their data tables, regardless of who he's guarding...when multiple subs are made and matchups change this data becomes completely useless when categorized like this...

...Powe started 2 games and was quickly out of one of them with the fouls you mentioned, so its not as if you can credit the other starters for this...you can also go back and watch the games he played in against centers where he did a more than credible job...

...you may "like" Powe, but you're clearly in the Davis camp and now your hunting for things to back up your pre-season prediction...

I think Davis has more offensive potential too and I said as much in pre-season...but Powe is more consistently productive, as I thought he'd be as a second year player...where their roles go with KG back is beyond me, I can't speak for how Doc will run the rotation, but I do know that Leon Powe was highly productive while KG was out and that the team was a surprising 7-2 while he was getting major minutes...those are facts...

...the fact that Leon Powe also produced better than all but 5 of his draft counterparts during that time also stood out...

I've always stated that I thought BOTH Powe and Davis could and should be the backups in the frontcourt and I stick by that statement...they are the two most talented players the team has at those positions off the bench and I'd like to see them play...what transpires after this season remains to be seen...

[sully00]

Blah Blah Blah Bill, I am the one being defensive you act Leon is your son. Way to blow by the overall point. I certainly didn't say that Leon couldn't defend, the point I am trying to illustrate is that Leon is forward and not a center. Playing him at the 5 takes a good talented kid and makes him liability, the kid is a good defender at the 4 were he physically has a fighting chance. Beyond that the last stretch of games were he got to play PF showed how productive the kid can be.

Are serouisly saying that Leon Powe is better served playing the center position or are you just trying to make an argument that he should still get mins now that KG is back and the 5 is the only spot mins are going to be available?

[billfromBoston]

Orlando vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=BOSORL

Powe was matched up with D Howard in this game the entire time he played and helped to keep Howard below his scoring average. Howard's two most productive stints, the 2nd and 3rd quarter stints, barely overlapped with Powe's time on the court.

Miami vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=BOSMIA

In this game, statistically Powe's finest, you can see that Miami's frontcourt had its greatest success at the end of the 2nd quarter when Powe was the lone big in the game...with James Posey next to him in the front court Mark Blount and Dorrel Wright got something going.

Dal vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=DALBOS

Powe was matched up on Brandon Bass for most of the game, while Posey took a majority of the time against Nowitzki...both Powe and Posey had some defensive coverage against Dirk, as did Pierce...Dirk played at center for the 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter that Dampier didn't play...most of that time was played without Powe on the court..his hot start in that quarter began at PF, where Scal started off on him, once he moved to center in the small lineup, Powe took him for the final 3:30 until Bass came back in, then Posey took over for the 4th...Bass was recorded as the "center" in that lineup, despite being the exact same height as Powe...Bass was very productive in his time on the court, but many of Bass's points came off weakside oportunity created by Dirk, not in man situations defensively...

Cleveland vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=BOSCLE

Powe didn't play much, as Ilgauskas was clearly a problem for Powe from a size and skill standpoint...Powe's one stint in the 4th quarter was productive as he and Davis played in the frontcourt together and held there own...Powe was matched up on Dwayne Jones and Donnyell Marshall during that time, but his time was recorded at "center" on the ISN, so everthing that Ilgauskas did that quarter was recorded statistically as happening against Powe although all of Z's posessions were played against Davis, which the tape and memory clearly verify...

LAC vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=LACBOS

Powe and Davis combined to keep Chris Kaman in check during this game...Josh Powell got the most minutes at the other frontcourt position, but LAC played a lot with a small lineup that had Thornton or Maggette at the 4...by all accounts, nobody got off on these two while they were in the frontcourt...most of Maggette's damage happened when he was at the 3 and both Davis and Powe were off the floor...this game was the high-water mark for both Powe/Davis playing in tandem...

Minny vs. Boston

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=BOSMIN

Powe was matched up with Craig Smith for most of this game up until the 4th quarter where Powe's "deke and dunk" on Jefferson sparked a nice little battle down the stretch, which ultimately led to Powe's tip for the win...as you'll notice, Jefferson had a very nice 2nd quarter while Powe was statistically listed in the ISN at "center" despite the fact that both Davis and Perkins played defensively on Jefferson that entire quarter (will be happy to provide play-by-play on this if necessary.) The fourth quarter production by Jefferson was nice in terms of points and that is all on Powe defensively, but Al Jefferson is pretty good offensively and 6 of those points came on jump shots which set up his two post scores...by all accounts, Powe played very well in this game...

SA vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=SASBOS

This game was almost a mirror image of the Orlando Magic game in terms of the match up against a franchise center. This time it was Davis who had to check Duncan, as early foul trouble for Powe gave Davis the stage and he produced well-DESPITE HAVING AN AWEFUL "EFF" against due to Duncan's excellent stat line---(point being that EFF against isn't all its cracked up to be)

Indy vs. Boston:

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=BOSIND

This is the game that inexplicably showed why Glen Davis needs to lose a bit more weight..his perimeter defense on Troy Murphy in the second quarter led to a prolonged stretch on the bench...Powe kept Murphy in check and he got Davis Harrison to foul out of the game...Jeff Foster had some success against Powe in the 4th quarter of this game, but it was the hot outside shooting of Shawne Williams that opened up the court and Powe was once against the "center' in a lineup sporting all wings, which had him out of position and running around trying to prevent lane penetration as Indy put together their best stretch offensively...

NYK vs. Boston

http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/g ... ame=NYKBOS

Everyone should remember this game...Powe got Eddie Curry out of this game pretty quick and he hasn't been seen since...Zach Randolph was the big damage guy for New York, but did most of his damage against James Posey...Powe matched up with Randolph when David Lee sat, but was on Lee when both were in the game...Lee had a nice game himself, which is on Powe...but AGAIN, we see the 3rd game in this sequence where the opponent has had the most effect on the interior offensively when they have two real front court players in the game vs. Powe/Posey or Powe/Scal...most of Lee's damage was on put-backs and cuts, which is typical...the more Powe had to help on Randolph the easier it was for Lee to operate...Oh, and Powe's stats were recorded at "center" for this game while most of Randolph's were as well...so though Powe didn't actually match up on Randolph for most of the game, he got dinged for Randolph's production...

FINAL RESULT:

you need to go to the game film to see every play and how the defense set up, but these advanced game logs should shed some light on the rotations and the success of those rotation against the opposition...the most important thing out of all of this is to understand that what the 82games stats say about what happens when a player is playing a certain position does not make it so...the system used to record that information has a lot of loop holes...

I only provided this so there would be more data...simply watching the game should be enough to see that Powe isn't struggling to defend the 5 position any more than anyone else is...he's had some very good showings there and hasn't been "dominated" by anyone during his time there...the figures reflected in your link aren't an accurate reflection of what's happening...I don't propose Powe starts at center, I think that's crazy, but against back ups with limited offensive abilty (which is most) Powe isn't a liablity like you are trying to make him out to be...

...that's all I have to say on this subject...watch the games and judge for yourself...I know none of this will change your mind, but so be it...Powe's minutes are a reflection of his contribution to the game....The Celtics have a stats guy dedicated to doing team-specific research on player effectiveness. His work goes into much greater detail than 82games could ever hope to...if Powe was the type of defensive liability that you are making him out to be he'd have been playing far fewer minutes with Scal/Davis/Perk picking them up...Powe IS more effective defensively as a 4 in certain match ups, but considering the dirth of offensive talent at th e 5, its not hard to see how Powe's intensity and defensive fundementals can have an impact there as well...