Popping in

[Albin]

Hi.

Due to two jobs and two kids, I barely have time to watch all the games, never mind spend hours reading the board and posting. But I miss all the abuse I get here, so I thought I'd bring you all up to speed on my opinions.

This is likely to be scattered, so hold on. It will be long and not for the faint of heart... after all I am cramming several months into one post. Those with short attention spans may want to go back to other threads and discuss trades, backup point guards, or whatever else strikes your fancy.

First things first, a championship is what it's all about... but can we win it? Right now, I'd say probably not.

Without some luck, I don't believe we'd get by Detroit. We just don't match up well against them. Talent-wise, maybe we have the edge, at best, it's a wash... but we just don't match up well. Rasheed causes huge problems with his ability to play so far outside (drawing Garnett so far away from the basket), and Billups is too big and too strong for Rondo to handle. It almost forces Tony Allen to play big minutes to defend Chauncy, and if Tony is on the floor longer than 15 minutes, that's less time for Rondo and Ray Allen.. but maybe that's what it will take to beat Detroit (shrug).

The way things stand now, we'd be facing Cleveland in the second round, while Detroit would face Orlando. I'd rather face Orlando. Our road would be much easier if we didn't have to go through both Cleveland and Detroit - but it might be more satisfying and better prepare us for the finals. I think Cleveland has a very solid chance to catch and pass Orlando for the third best record in the East. Toronto will hover around, and I'm not very fearful of them.

Another large, and looming problem is that we don't have experience in close games, or in big games. Detroit has both. Our record in games decided by three points or less this year is dismal - what is it now, 5-6? Terrible. None of our big three have seen the finals, and have not played in the playoffs together. As experienced as we are, we're not experienced together, and we haven't shed enough blood in close wars yet. Our chemistry is mostly good, so I do think we can overcome that.

However, I have not seen the ability in our team to "take it to the next level" when times get rough. I have seen first hand how Detroit, and Cleveland (mostly LeBron) can raise their level of play when it's needed. The Celtics in the 80's and just about every great team can shift into a completely different gear. Dennis Johnson, in particular, was almost a completely different player in the playoffs opposed to the regular season, and as good as Larry Bird was - he was always his best in the playoffs. Who on our team can play much better than how they are now? Perhaps no one individual, so we need to play better as a team.

Rondo has proven to me that he can get it done in the regular season. Can he do it in the playoffs? I don't know. He's going to need to stay agressive and keep shooting well. If Rondo continues to improve, and can do in the playoffs what he's doing now, we don't have major point guard worries. He's young enough to play 40 minutes in the playoffs when the rotation gets short... he just has to play well enough during that time. We only have to worry if he gets hurt, but that goes for other players and teams as well. Rondo may in fact, be our most important player.

Pierce has disappointed me. There are flashes of the player I want him to be, but he's just not there. In my opinion, he could be a 20/7/7 player on this team. He should be a triple double threat every night, but he just doesn't play that way. The assists would come with better team play on our part. Phoenix is averaging 27.22 assists per game, we are at 21.82.. *New Jersey* is at 23.85 assists per game.

After seeing how Pierce has played through this point in the season, I would suggest that our best chance of winning is if the ball goes more to Garnett and we play inside out more.

Garnett is a terrific passer in the paint, and even marginal players like Perk, Powe, and Big Baby can get the job done alongside of Kevin. I had wanted Pierce take his playmaking to the next level, but he hasn't. He's taken his defense up a notch, but offensively, he's not risen to a new level, despite the surrounding talent.

I do think that Ray, Paul and Kevin will have their nights and depending on matchups, we'll be better off focusing on one rather than the other, but for the most part - I don't think we have been utilizing Garnett enough. We should start preparing for the playoffs by really getting into the paint more, and going to Garnett.

I think we do have a weakness at backup point guard. In tight games when Eddie House has been in, defenses have taken advantage of him, ditto for Tony Allen (but not as badly).

Either we need to instill more confidence in Tony Allen at backup PG, or we need to find another player who can handle the ball in tough situations besides Rondo because Eddie House won't get it done in the playoffs in that role. If Rondo gets himself into foul trouble and can't play important situations in the fourth quarter, right now, we don't have a good alternative. Eddie is good for giving Ray Allen a spell during the game, but not at backup PG in critical situations.

Big Baby vs. Powe? *Big shrug* I think Big Baby is the better player, but he's also a rookie. Play him big minutes now, and he'll probably hit a wall in the spring. I almost think that Glenn is using Powe more now so that Big Baby learns how to play hard, while also not getting burned out for the playoffs. As we get towards the end of the year, I hope to see Big Baby replace Powe in the rotation. I think he and Garnett work well together. Aside from Garnett, I think Baby is the best big we have (sorry Perk). That doesn't mean I think Baby is going to be a great player one day... it means the dropoff from Garnett to our next big is like falling off a cliff. We do not have Robert Parish and Kevin McHale here.

My playoff rotation : Garnett, Perk, Baby, Posey, Pierce, Allen, Allen, Rondo... with some splashes of Eddie in there. Subject to change depending on our March 1 roster.

I love that Delonte West is in Cleveland. If he can't get it done there alongside LeBron, with Gibson being hurt, then he's going to be a career backup. I still have hopes that he is good enough to start on a title team, but he has to prove it and rise to the challenge ahead of him. Good luck Delonte.

Gerald belongs in Houston, and he'll be working his butt off there.

Yi is quietly putting up almost 10/6 a game in his rookie year showing the occasional signs of brilliance. Both Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay are turning into terrific players (while Telfair and Wally have been traded). Gasol was traded to LA for peanuts (remember the rumors about him coming here). I miss Al Jefferson terribly. Durant is great. If we don't win a title during this big three era, the events of this past year will haunt me for the rest of my life.. just like the Spectre of Tim Duncan. What could have been.

I've brought myself close to tears several times this year imagining what it would be like to win a championship again. I'm going to mortgage my house to buy a playoff strip this year if that's what it costs.

I still *majorly* regret not putting $10 grand on the C's when they were at 140-1 odds of winning a title last year before the draft.

I'm still thinking that Reggie Miller will join us. Not sure if that would really make us significantly better or not. He sounds comfortable in his broadcasting booth, but he has said on several occasions that he didn't think he could mentally do an entire season, but he could do six months. He said that his body was ready after doing two a days, so physically he would be fine. If he's going to try it, he'll decide before March 1st. Realistically, he won't. But it would make us even more interesting.

It wouldn't hurt to get another experienced rebounder on the team as well.

I'd take Cassell, but be fine without him. I like Gabe Pruitt, wish he'd get a few minutes every now and again. Dwight Howard in the dunk contest was totally sick. Ray Allen was the MVP of the All-Star game and should be doing the three point shootout. I said that Monta Ellis would be a great player, but not a good fit for our team.. right on the first part, wrong on the second, he's more unselfish than I thought he would be. I'd love to have him here.

What I'm hoping for this year... one of two scenerios : beating LA or beating San Antonio for the title. LA for the history of the rivalry, and SA because they have been consistently the best team during the Tim Duncan era. Beating them would really mean something...

Goals until the playoffs - stay healthy, stay healthy, stay healthy.

I'll be back when the playoffs start, or perhaps to offer a comment again if something unusual happens.

[Datruth345]

i think Paul has been playing better than you suggest, it is so hard for one individual player to stand out when you have 3 players like we do

24/6/7
24/5/7
28/12/5
19/9/8
19/5/9
12/8/5
19/9/7
23/10/5
19/6/7
10/6/7
20/6/9
31/11/6

i don; think it is fair to say we don;t have anyone who can take it to the next level in the playoffs...we've witnessed firsthand what paul pierce can do in the playoffs

and kg and ray's playoff averages are both above their regular season averages in points rebounds and assists

[bruno sundov]

For a guy who doesn't have a lot of time, that might be the longest post in history. What are your feelings about global warming?

[Albin]

I hope I don't start a war, but Pierce is simply not capable of performing like he did in the 2002 playoffs. He was superhuman that year, and he simply cannot do that again.

He lead the league in 4th quarter points that year, and was probably the most clutch player in the entire league that year. Arguably, that performance has hurt him during the rest of his career because he now has a damaging hero complex and has lost more games than I can count because he tries to win them by himself instead of relying on his team.

This year he has given me some signs of hope by giving the ball up to Ray Allen and others at the end of games, but if he tries to do again what he did in 2002 - we will lose.

I think Paul has his head in the right spot, but I also think he struggles against two sides of himself. The Celtics winning the game has to always be more important to him than "Paul winning the game for the Celtics" .. He has no fear of taking the winning shot, and we need that.. but he also has to make the right play, and he doesn't always do that.

I also don't mean to crap on Garnett, but he has a history of disappearing in the playoffs when it matters.

I believe and hope that we can win a title, but there is certainly plenty of evidence to evoke worry that we could completely collapse against a more experienced team.

[CelticsWhat!]

Whoa, I don't have the attention span for that one. I'll wait for the movie to come out.

[Al n' Perk No Layups!]

But I miss all the abuse I get here

Morrison is still a bust. The Bustache.

[darrendaye]

Albin, in the past you've gone a bit overboard in your criticisms of Pierce, so I imagine you may not spark a good deal of balanced discussion on your point here. I tend to agree with a sense of disappointment with Pierce's game this season offensively, but, I can't know for sure where to place the blame for the aspects I have fault. System (coach) or player? For me, it's not the playmaking, as I believe he's deferred a good deal of scoring and for most of the season he's looked for the supporting players via the pass. But he still has stretches of games where he either: 1. holds the ball too long when he's very involved in the offense, 2. looks disinterested when he isn't very involved in the offense, 3. doesn't attack the glass as consistently as he has in previous seasons (from a FTA per FGA perspective).

Now as I alluded earlier, there could be mitigating circumstances surrounding these factors. But this relates to your point about "stepping up" their games. More of the scoring burden, IMO, falls on Pierce. Yes a player of his stature and with the number of touches he deserves, an expectation for being a playmaker comes with the territory too. But I think his head is right most of the time in reference to not forcing things. I'd just prefer he be more assertive both when he does and does not have the ball in his hands. It could very well be that this is what comes to fruition when the playoff bell sounds. Hopefully.

[eitanr]

I don't think people understand how necessary a backup PG will be for the post season. Despite having a great 2nd season, I don't think its fair to rely on Rondo on much as we have been...especially in the playoffs. Being that we have Kevin Garnett, Ray Ray, and PP...Rondo should not be our most important player...but he is.

Obviously bringing in a guy like Sam Cassell would be ideal. If that can't happen though I do believe the C's need to sign a vet PG. Anthony Johnson may not be a bad choice here. The fact is in the playoffs games will get closer and you want players you're very comfortable ending a game with. We all saw what Sam has done in the crunch time throughout his career. He may be the most underrated clutch player in the past 14 years. AJ is not really clutch, but is a very underrated PG and an overall smart decision maker.

[darrendaye]

Just to add to my points, I will say that Pierce has been more assertive with the ball since KG went down. The last two games I felt much of the fault lied with KG taking too many shots being as rusty as he is and the general readjustment to playing with him that is par for the course whenever a major cog is out for an extended period.

[Kaykoose]

Skimmed through it a bit, no way I was going to read all of that. Pierce is averaging 21 on 45% FG/6/5 with two future hall of famers by his side, while playing some of the best defense of his career. What more do you want?

He will be more assertive when the playoffs come around. I am ok with him being primarily a jumpshooter for right now. Why get banged up during the regular season?

[celticfan42487]

Albin never really liked Pierce the past few years anywho. Fell in line more with Shocker's points of blame Pierce for the losses cuz he's holding back AL and Green.

Varied post I'm not going to respond to all teh points. you have some diffrences from teh norm of the board right now.

What's your opinion on Ray Allen and his near worst shooting percentages of his career? I think you left that topic out of your post. Seems like you've covered everything else we've been rambling on about.

[Kaykoose]

Laff at holding back Green.

[Datruth345]

-The amount of jump shots Paul Pierce is taking this season is consistent with years past
-the number of time he gets to the line isn't an accurate way to determine the diversity of his offense


2002-2003
Ppg - 25.9
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers - 70%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .377

2003-2004
Ppg- 23.0
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers- 77%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .408

2004-2005
Ppg- 21.6
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers - 70%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .451

2005-2006
Ppg - 26.8
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers - 64%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .451

2006-2007
Ppg- 25.0
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers - 74%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .483

2007-2008
Ppg- 20.7
Percentage Of Shots Being Jumpers - 70%
Efg% of Jumpshots- .467

http://www.82games.com/teams07.htm