What's the future of Bogut regarding his contract?

[coolhandluke121]

A) Sign a modest extension the team offers this summer.

B) Sign an extension that overpays him.

C) Hold out for a huge raise and not get it, becoming an rfa in 2009. Gets a reasonable offer which the Bucks match.

D) Same as C), but the Bucks don't match even reasonable offers.

E) Same as C), but gets a lowball offer.

F) Same as C), but the offer matched is ridiculously lucrative.

G) Same as C), but the Bucks say no to matching a lucrative offer.

H) He doesn't want to be here. Refuse all Bucks offers with the intent of accepting the one-year qualifying offer in 2009 so he can be unrestricted in 2010.

[paulpressey25]

I think he'll sign a 5-year/$60mm extension deal in the summer after the new GM comes on and remakes the team.....

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

It's hard to say what Bogut will be able to demand, but if we max him, it could be Michael Redd all over again. We've got to be smart. PP's 5/60 doesn't sound terrible - that's 12 million a year. But if we do that, I'd want it to be a flat 12 every year. If we do one of those escalating contracts that goes 9/10.5/12/13.5/15, we could be left with Bogut not living up to it, and us feeling constricted during the last years.

I would try for 5/50, and say - Andrew, you said you'd take less to play for a contender and wanted to be part of a rebuilding here, so let's do it. 10 million a year, and we'll have money left over to put talent around you.

[Superfito]

I think Kaman's extensions was 5yr/52mil so 5yr/60mil for Bogut is probably about right. Anything higher then that and we're absolutely overpaying for him.

[paulpressey25]

Bogut seems to have pretty grounded working class parents.....I could see them weighing in to tell him to take a guaranteed 5/$60mm if it was offered this summer.....

Too much risk if the guy plays next year and then blows out a knee, back, hip, whatever......

And if he wants to play out his fourth season as an RFA, no guarantees he'll have a better offer at the end of that year. Do any of you see Deng, Gordon, or Okafor among others getting better deals this summer than what was offered them last? Sure they get one more year but is that extra year worth the risk?

If Bogut does take the gamble to go all five years on his deal and then be a completely unrestricted FA, he heads into the 2010 summer competing with LeBron, Wade and all those other major guys who will be FA's that summer. There won't be much salary room for Bogut unless he turns into Dwight Howard the next two years.

Plus, if he really wants flexibility, he can take the 5/$60 deal and put in there some type of opt-out after three like LeBron has.

Both parties have a strong interest in a 5/$60 deal this summer IMO.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Come to think of it, I think my limit would be 5 years, 55 million this summer. There is no reason whatsoever to over-pay, and maybe no reason to even offer full value before the player hits RFA.

If we're just going to pay 5 years, 60 million, why not make him earn it for another year? Because of the risk that if we wait another year, we might have to pay him 5 years, 62 million? The advantages of waiting another year far outweigh that risk.

The way I see it, players should have to wait all the way until UFA if they want to get full value. The year before that (RFA), they should get 80-90% of full value, since the team is doing them a big favor by locking them up early. The year before that, they shouldn't be getting anywhere near full value. The team loses nothing by waiting another year, so why should they pay all that money so early just to appease the player?

People criticized the Bulls for not offering Deng 70 million, or whatever he wanted, and now it looks like he'll get no offers in that range. The Bulls were smart to make him wait. A year can do a lot to change "untapped potential" into "what you see is what you get." Really is amazing how people's viewpoints will dramatically change.

This summer, people will look at Bogut's 13/9 and see all the unlocked potential for 20/10. A year from now, 13/9 will look like a player who doesn't need any more than 9 million a year.

[paulpressey25]

This summer, people will look at Bogut's 13/9 and see all the unlocked potential for 20/10. A year from now, 13/9 will look like a player who doesn't need any more than 9 million a year.

I could buy that argument with Bogut......the only caveat is that the following year he'll want a six-year deal with another $15mm tacked on.

If Bogut somehow explodes next year, you are looking at a 6-year/$90mm deal to keep him. I'd gamble on 5/$60 now. That overpays Bogut somewhat to get him to sign, but as you said, make it a flat $12mm per year and that is a very liveable deal under the cap.

Bogut can be a really nice piece of a winning team.....we know he can...he's unselfish, becoming an anchor on defense and should be at least a 13/10 guy by next season.......at $12mm he'd fit. Contrast that with Redd, where he may not even be a good part of a winning team, and we will pay him $16, $17 and $18 the next three years.

[benultimate]

I don't think there's an in between, he either takes the first thing offered to him this off season (be it 5/$30 or 5/$60), or if he's deadset about playing for a winner he waits and takes the qualifying offer to keep his options open after year 5

[Dags]

What happens with regard to extensions this summer will not be based on the money, but on the moves the team makes. If nothing/minor stuff happens and he sees himself stuck with the same team next season then you'd have to max him to get him to even consider staying (unless, perhaps, he takes a near max and then demands a trade during the season).

He clearly isn't happy with the team he's on. Much as he will consider the money offered, I think the team structure will be the big determining factor for whether he stays.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

It's hard to say what Bogut will be able to demand, but if we max him, it could be Michael Redd all over again. We've got to be smart. PP's 5/60 doesn't sound terrible - that's 12 million a year. But if we do that, I'd want it to be a flat 12 every year. If we do one of those escalating contracts that goes 9/10.5/12/13.5/15, we could be left with Bogut not living up to it, and us feeling constricted during the last years.

I would try for 5/50, and say - Andrew, you said you'd take less to play for a contender and wanted to be part of a rebuilding here, so let's do it. 10 million a year, and we'll have money left over to put talent around you.

A good point here.

Flat is definitely preferable than escalating, considering our projected payroll structure (I know that could change, but it would take a number of moves to change it drastically enough to impact the decision on Bogut's contract). In fact, we might even examine frontloading that contract and having it be a declining salary structured contract.

Plus, if he really wants flexibility, he can take the 5/$60 deal and put in there some type of opt-out after three like LeBron has.

Not possible.

If he wants the ability to become a free agent after the third year of an extension, it can only be a four year extension. The earliest he could become a free agent after signing a 5 year extension would be after the 4th year of that extension.

Only in 6 year contracts can you become a free agent prior to the last two years of that deal via an ETO. ETOs can only occur after the 4th year of a contract/extension, whereas the final year of any contract can be a player option. In 6 year contracts, you can have an ETO after the 4th year AND a player option for the 6th year (as in Mo Williams' unfortunately structured contract).
LeBron James extension was only a 4 year extension and that 4th year is a player option, which is why he can become a free agent after the third year of that extension.

Come to think of it, I think my limit would be 5 years, 55 million this summer. There is no reason whatsoever to over-pay, and maybe no reason to even offer full value before the player hits RFA.

If we're just going to pay 5 years, 60 million, why not make him earn it for another year? Because of the risk that if we wait another year, we might have to pay him 5 years, 62 million? The advantages of waiting another year far outweigh that risk.

The way I see it, players should have to wait all the way until UFA if they want to get full value. The year before that (RFA), they should get 80-90% of full value, since the team is doing them a big favor by locking them up early. The year before that, they shouldn't be getting anywhere near full value. The team loses nothing by waiting another year, so why should they pay all that money so early just to appease the player?

I somewhat agree with all of that.
I do think that #1 overall picks (even lesser #1 overall picks like Bogut) fall in a different class than just a standard rotation player who is an RFA though. There is more pressure to retain an asset like that so it is harder to take the risk that you might lose him.

One of the main advantages to working out an extension is that you preempt the possibility of that player taking the QO in order to become a UFA and eventually leave (which is 2 offseasons away at the time when an extension can be negotiated). Most players do not want to take that financial risk so it usually never goes that far, but Bogut is more of an enigma than most players who could possibly demand big money, so I think it is a legitimate concern that Bogut might go that route, a concern that is bolstered by some interviews and articles.

So there's that.

Another big advantage of working out an extension is that you can possibly avoid an acrimonious situation that affects the team and player on the court. Restricted free agency is a rough business, especially if you want to play the game of trying to make them get an offer sheet that you will match. Tha can have problematic results, as many/most teams won't even bother with an offer sheet because they know you will match anything reasonable. Then you are left trying to get the player to sign a "bargain" deal and the player can become angry/frustrated with that situation. I realize that is how restricted free agency works. I frequently remind people of that
But you do need to weigh the consequences of taking such a hardliner stance, and I think you have to factor in what player you are dealing with when considering how steadfast you will be.

It is not quite the same thing to play poker like that with a Charlie Bell type of player as it would be with a Bogut type of player.

So we should try and work out an extension with Bogut. If we can't come to a mutual arrangement though, we need to figure out a good way to table those negotiations without creating animosity between the team and Bogut. We need to address that issue RIGHT AWAY at the onset of negotiations for an extension. That needs to be the first order of business. That should be a lesson learned from the Bulls negotiations with Gordon and Deng. I think the Bulls were very wise not to go further than they did monetarily in those negotiations, but I think if they had made it more of a priority, they could have kept things more civil with less acrimony.

That is the most important thing we can do when the extension negotiation window opens up for Bogut. Be real. Be respectful. Be reasonable.

Unfortunately I fear we will handle it poorly, with Herb Kohl, Ron Walter, Mike Burr, etc. getting themselves too involved. I would prefer whoever holds the title of GM to handle the negotiations, but if Kohl wants to handle the negotiations himself, then he needs to handle them HIMSELF, meaning he is the only voice speaking to Andrew and his agent regarding an extension. What will not work is Bogut and his agent negotiating with Kohl one day, Walter another day, and the GM another day. That is how many/most of our negotiations get so screwed up. ONE VOICE. If Kohl insists on handling things by committee again (ugh) than he needs to do his consultations behind the scenes and only speak/listen to Bogut as one person.

[magpies]

Depends if the team is reloaded he stays but if not he goes
Bogut wants to win more then he wants to get a big pay day.

Who would want to stay and not make the playoffs just so they get a big contract, other then Redd

[bayrdbandit]

Depends if the team is reloaded he stays but if not he goes
Bogut wants to win more then he wants to get a big pay day.

Who would want to stay and not make the playoffs just so they get a big contract, other then Redd

my sentiments exactly. bogut has made it clear his stance on winning and finances. i guess we'll see if he's a man of his word.

who is bogut's agent? it's not dan fegan by any chance is it? if so, i think he'll hold off for 5 years 100 million and a guaranteed 44 minutes.