Funny Story, True Story (about Shaq)

[tsherkin]

The Diesel PM'd me, as he is wont to do, and we were discussing Shaq in Phoenix. I was reviewing some of the notes I'd made for my article, checking up on his overall performance now that he's got four games under his belt as a Sun.

And do you know what I found?

Shaq is averaging about a FTA per FGA (28 FGA, 30 FTA, .933, about what Dwight Howard is managing), which is spectacular and is still putting loads of pressure on the opposition. Remember, Shaq's taking 7 FGA/g and averaging 7.5 FTA/g for the Suns.

Do you know what that means? It means he's behind only AMARE (8.0 FTA/g, 14.8 FGA/g) in FTA/g.

I just thought I'd share that with you, because Marion's career-best in FTA/g is 3.7 (05-06).

Yes, Shaq's shooting just under 37% from the line but he's also scoring about as many points per game from the line as Marion did LAST year (and about twice as many as he was averaging this year). Shaq is presently scoring 2.8 ppg from the line, which is only 0.4 under Marion's CAREER AVERAGE.

And he's doing it in 28 mpg (Marion's a career 37.8 mpg player) and on the aforementioned 7 FGA/g (Marion's a career 15.4 FGA/g guy).

And this is Shaq shooting 36.7% from the line instead of what you might reasonably expect to be 42-46% from the line (or even as "high" as 49%).

Think about that.

[rsavaj]

tsherkin, you've got skills.

[tsherkin]

tsherkin, you've got skills.

Heh, thanks.

He's already a better rebounder than was Marion, now he's drawing about twice as many FTA/g as Marion and scoring as much from the line even though he's hitting barely more than a third of his attempts.

THAT is an impact player; this is BAD Shaq, and he's still basically a double-double guy who's blocking some shots, passing really nicely and putting pressure on the opposition frontcourt. And think about it; 4 games in, he's shooting 50% from the floor and we think this is a BAD thing, almost 10% below his career average.


Yeah, I think the Suns will do alright with Shaq. I can see him getting up to around 11, 12 ppg as a Sun this season, maybe even a little higher. And let's not forget that Marion is "only" a career 18.4 ppg scorer.

I'll take a 5- to 7-point drop off in the scoring average for the things that Shaq DOES do. Besides, maybe Diaw will quit being a wussy if he gets more minutes; he certainly looked solid against Memphis (of course, Memphis, but still).

Mind that at 11.3 rpg, Shaq is matching what Marion achieved in 04-05, the second-best rebounding performance of Marion's career (his career-high is 11.8 from the following year).

It took Marion 38.8 mpg to do that.

Shaq's playing almost 11 fewer minutes per game.

You do the math.

[chrice]

Shaq draws 4 fouls, Amare draws 4 fouls. That can put the other team into the penalty for both halfs, and also loosens up the defensive pressure on other guys.

[syntax]

You do realise that opposing teams want Shaq shooting FTs because he is so godawful at them, right?

[jakeindallas]

Unfortunately, I don't think how Shaq does on offense is entirely relevant. It's not like your team was badly in need of offensive help. Where you needed help the most is rebounding and defense. Shaq is rebounding, but the loss of Marion is just killing you on defense.

[tsherkin]

You do realise that opposing teams want Shaq shooting FTs because he is so godawful at them, right?

True, but he's also still drawing the fouls on the other team's frontcourt, which has value in and of itself on account of the pressure it puts on those players. He draws fouls very quickly, too, which is even more important because he can really put another team's offense on its heels (at least in so far as driving and posting), as well as their frontcourt defense.

Unfortunately, I don't think how Shaq does on offense is entirely relevant. It's not like your team was badly in need of offensive help. Where you needed help the most is rebounding and defense. Shaq is rebounding, but the loss of Marion is just killing you on defense.

Shaq isn't the major defensive issue and yes, the loss of Marion is hurting them.

What's hurting them more right now is that they've had some notable offensive droughts and one of their best defenders (Raja Bell) appears to have forgotten how to play effective perimeter defense.

[skatesb16]

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Shaq isn't the major defensive issue and yes, the loss of Marion is hurting them.

What's hurting them more right now is that they've had some notable offensive droughts and one of their best defenders (Raja Bell) appears to have forgotten how to play effective perimeter defense.

The main problem with Raja is D'Antoni is hitching his wagon to him and making him play a ton of minutes like he used to do to Marion. He's running on empty right now and it's not gonna get any better as time goes on. D'Antoni needs to go to DJ Strawberry more for defense so he can take Raja out. And we need Barry to have another shooter to put on the floor. I think both of those things would help us immensely.

[magicfan4life05]

tsherkin im confused, did shaq pm you?

[tsherkin]

Yes, more DJ would be very good. Barry probably won't sign with Phoenix, I don't see why he would abandon the Spurs. If he did, though, it'd be awesome.

Another consistent shooter (and ball-handler/playmaker) would be VERY nice.

[CB4MiamiHeat]

[quote="tsherkin"][/quote]

yes, through 4 games hes a better rebounder..but can he keep it up? hes had problems rebounding in Miami.

[tsherkin]

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yes, through 4 games hes a better rebounder..but can he keep it up? hes had problems rebounding in Miami.

Yeah, but he's also got a lot less offensive responsibility and a lot more attention to detail in terms of physical therapy... and more motivation because he's not on the worst team in the league.

Rebounding-wise, he's in a specialist's role, so it's easier for him to rebound more than he has before because he's got so much less to do on offense.

[The Hypnotoad]

Are there any statistics on fouls drawn? Not fouls commited but fouls drawn, i think that would be interesting to see.