Someone just emailed me this article... What's your opinion?

[enuggz]

One final thought after a trading frenzy that shed the "No Balls
Association" tag: Do you realize none of this would have happened without
the KG trade last summer? Garnett is such a loyal person he probably would
have retired with the T-Wolves -- even if it meant never winning a title --
until he had a falling out with the owner and Kevin McHale last summer when
he learned they were shopping him before the draft. Betrayed, Garnett
started rethinking his commitment to Minnesota, and that eventually led to
the Boston trade, a deal that Garnett had to be talked into by friends and
family for three solid weeks before it happened.


Just for the hell of it, let's pretend the trade never happened and Garnett
stayed in Minnesota.


Fast-forward to late-January. Chris Wallace is shopping Gasol around. It's
easy to forget this now, but the Celtics wouldn't have been terrible with
Pierce, Allen, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo and Ryan Gomes.
That's a .500 team in the East, right? They would have been waiting for a
blue-chipper like Gasol to come on the market, and when it happened, they
would have easily trumped the Lakers' offer with Theo Ratliff's Expiring
Contract (so glad I get to write that one more time), $4 million more of
expiring contracts (Sebastian Telfair and Gerald Green) and the rights to
Minnesota's No. 1 in 2008 or 2009 for Gasol and Brian Cardinal's crummy
contract. In every way, that's a better deal than what the Lakers gave up
and, besides, Chris Wallace owed Boston for all the damage he inflicted a
few years ago.


Now ...


The Celtics would have become a player in the East with Gasol, Jefferson,
Pierce and Allen -- a killer offensive team that couldn't defend anyone,
but still good enough to be intriguing in a weak conference. On the other
hand, they wouldn't have been good enough that everyone in the West would
have said, "Uh-oh, we gotta do something." More importantly, Gasol never
goes to the Lakers for 38 cents on the dollar, which means the following
things don't happen:
1. Phoenix doesn't roll the dice with the Shaq trade.
2. Dallas doesn't roll the dice with the Kidd trade.
3. The Lakers trump San Antonio's offer for Thomas by sending Kwame
Brown and Jarvaris Crittendon to Seattle, leaving the Spurs with
Elson instead of Thomas.
4. LeBron doesn't pressure Cleveland to make that 11-player deal and
assume all that extra money.


In other words, it would have been the "No Balls Association" all over
again! So thank you, Kevin Garnett, for coming to your senses and kicking
the league into another gear.
Wait, one final thought on the final thought, only because my father and I
were discussing it this week after Gasol torched the Suns: As blasphemous
as this sounds, purely from a talent standpoint, would the Celtics have
been better off getting Gasol than Garnett?


Granted, there isn't a Celtics fan alive who would choose any other
scenario from the way this particular season has played out. We're relevant
again. We're fun to watch every night. We have a legitimate chance to win
the title. We're trotting out a team that's so ridiculously competitive
that it hasn't been blown out once in four months, and you cannot quantify
in words what it's like to watch Garnett's passion every day for an entire
season. It's also worth mentioning Garnett rejuvenated Pierce's career and
turned him into one of the top all-around players in the league, something
that wouldn't have happened with Gasol. And Gasol isn't selling out the
Garden for the next four years like KG has (or selling as many jerseys).


Still, there's also a window to the Garnett era in Boston -- three years,
maybe four -- and if you watched him closely this season, he was wearing
down even before his injury a few weeks ago. (Just look at his rebounding
splits.) How many years does he have left at a high level? When you
consider Garnett's contract nets him nearly as much as Gasol and Jefferson
combined in 2009 and 2010, the topic becomes a little more interesting.
What happens if the Celtics don't win a title this year or next year? What
happens if Garnett (carrying a ton of miles already) starts to deteriorate?
What happens when Allen starts to decline as a player (and by the way, he
hasn't been nearly as good as people seem to think this season)?


Look at Boston's nucleus if the aformentioned Gasol trade happens: Allen
(age 32, expiring contract in 2009), Pierce (30), Gasol (27), Jefferson
(23), Rondo (21), Perkins (23), Big Baby (22), Gomes (25). You're set for
the next five or six years with that group.


Here's Boston's nucleus now: Allen (32), Garnett (31), Pierce (30), Rondo
(21), Perkins (23), Big Baby (22), Posey (31) ... with the Allen-Pierce-KG
deals expiring in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. You're set for two
years with that group, maybe three, and then it depends on what you do with
those big cap numbers.


It's at least a potential debate down the road, right? Although my dad said
it best (I'm paraphrasing): "I wouldn't change how it worked out because I
got the chance to watch Kevin Garnett every night. And, also, I love
watching this team."


Me, too. I agree. Wholeheartedly.


With that said, these three points have to be mentioned:


1. If the Celtics don't win a title with Garnett over these next three
years -- and really, their best chance is 2009 because they have their own
No. 1 and a chance to add another veteran free agent -- then we might be
looking back at this some day and thinking, "Wait, would they have been
better off not getting Garnett and just ending up with Jefferson and
Gasol?" Crazy but true.


2. The Lakers fans should feel really, REALLY lucky right now.


3. If the Celtics and Lakers end up meeting in the 2008 Finals, let's
remember to factor in the Gasol-Garnett conundrum to the 250 other things
that would make that series so phenomenal. Enjoy the weekend.

[The Rondo Show]

My thoughts are I'll take the KG deal even over getting Pau for expirings and picks.

A Jefferson and Gasol frontcourt just wouldn't play enough D for us to be a legit title contender. 50 win team, entertaining to watch every year and competitive for at least 5 years? Sure, but I highly doubt that team wins a title, and that's really what it's all about.

[Scalamental]

It's interesting. But it over looks three things

A. Why KG is an MVP candidate for what he's done for the defense on the c's

B. Thibs impact to this teams D

C. A+B= Huge upgrade in defense that wouldn't be there if KG and Thibs weren't.

Two other things wouldn't be there if they weren't 1. Posey 2. Pierce playing lock down d because that's everyone elses focus (you think Pierce would play tough hard nose D, with Big Al watching defenders take it to the hole? I don't think so.)

Though I agree that team: Rondo, Ray, PP, Al, Gasol would be awesome to watch. And before the KG trade happened, I'm sure a ton of c's fans would have preferred that.

[LarBrd33]

I think it's more interesting to think how the ping pong balls completely altered the landscape of the NBA. What happens of the Celtics get the #1 or #2 pick? Say we get the #2 pick and take Durant. That means our core is now Rondo/Jefferson and Durant. I'd pretty much expect Pierce to be a goner. Maybe some bizarro "reverse" trade would happen where we'd send Pierce to Seattle for the #5 pick, young prospects (Robert Swift?) and and maybe an expiring contract.

Point is... if we don't get the #5, I can see maybe KG staying put... or perhaps getting sent to the Suns. Or crap... maybe KG gets sent to the Lakers mid season instead of Pau? Really theres no telling... us getting the 5th pick completely altered the course of NBA history )

Imagine Marty McFly getting sent back to lotto day... accidentally bumping the machine changing the positioning of the balls and thus changing the way they pop out of the machine... the #1 pick goes to Memphis, #2 goes to Boston... Oden never gets hurt, Grizz build a foundation around twin towers Pau and Oden. The "Paul Pierce" sweepstakes dominates the preseason media and Kobe's angry demands from ownership inevitably culminate in Pierce getting sent to Los Angeles for Andrew Bynum, KWame Brown's expiring contract and change. Celts build a core around Durant, Jefferson and Bynum... Lakers are mediocre behind Pierce and Kobe. Suns trade Amare for Kevin Garnett. Shaq and Wade play out a horrible season in Miami... Nets dominate the Atlantic.... etc

[eitanr]

Whoa that'd be really crazy if history would cause the Heat to play a horrible season....wait that happened.

Very interesting article. I do believe that 2 points can be made here and that Boston getting the number 5 pick altered history. That being said I'd probably rather see Jefferson and Gasol over KG. Granted the team would be weaker defensivley, I don't think it'd be terrible with Tom's coaching D and Perk's D off the bench. I just don't think we're close to seeing Jefferson's potential. This guy has a chance to be a Moses Malone type player. That alone could lead you to a title. It would also give Boston double the window time (6 compared to 3).

[sully00]

I would have been happy with a Gasol/Jefferson frontcourt but it would have been soft as hell defensively, I don't think that they would win a championship. So I will take KG and Perk of Al and Gasol.

Ainge was going to take Durant first or second and Pierce would have been out of here one way or another. Likely would have turned that GS/CHA deal into a 3 way with Pierce going to GS and Al Thornton in Boston at the SF spot. Ainge would have built with Durant and the two Al's and while we would be about as good as the Sonics this season it likely would have worked out to a be a decent squad in a few years if they got the same play out of Rondo and Perk.

[tlee324]

I think with the weapons LA has in Kobe and Odom, Gasol was a really great fit in their puzzle. It has really solidified that team, and they aren't really bad defensively as a unit either. I credit some of that to coaching as well as talent, since Phil Jackson has usually been able to get his teams to defend well. KG was a perfect fit with Pierce and Allen as well. He does all the things the other two cannot, and they all compliment each other well. Defensively, Boston has Perkins that KG also coincides very well with to hold things down. I just think the two GMs of Boston and LA made great moves. Not sure one was better, and definitely don't think Ainge should second-guess getting Garnett in the manner he did.

[Jimmy103]

I think it's more interesting to think how the ping pong balls completely altered the landscape of the NBA. What happens of the Celtics get the #1 or #2 pick? Say we get the #2 pick and take Durant. That means our core is now Rondo/Jefferson and Durant. I'd pretty much expect Pierce to be a goner. Maybe some bizarro "reverse" trade would happen where we'd send Pierce to Seattle for the #5 pick, young prospects (Robert Swift?) and and maybe an expiring contract.

Point is... if we don't get the #5, I can see maybe KG staying put... or perhaps getting sent to the Suns. Or crap... maybe KG gets sent to the Lakers mid season instead of Pau? Really theres no telling... us getting the 5th pick completely altered the course of NBA history )

Imagine Marty McFly getting sent back to lotto day... accidentally bumping the machine changing the positioning of the balls and thus changing the way they pop out of the machine... the #1 pick goes to Memphis, #2 goes to Boston... Oden never gets hurt, Grizz build a foundation around twin towers Pau and Oden. The "Paul Pierce" sweepstakes dominates the preseason media and Kobe's angry demands from ownership inevitably culminate in Pierce getting sent to Los Angeles for Andrew Bynum, KWame Brown's expiring contract and change. Celts build a core around Durant, Jefferson and Bynum... Lakers are mediocre behind Pierce and Kobe. Suns trade Amare for Kevin Garnett. Shaq and Wade play out a horrible season in Miami... Nets dominate the Atlantic.... etc

Why not take it back another year? Keep Raef and get Roy

Rajon Rondo-Brandon Roy-Kevin Durant-Al Jefferson- Andrew Bynum


Dear god...

[DarkAzcura]

One thing I only really have to say...

even though Garnett is our best defensive player, I think our defense would have still been very good without him as long as we hired Tom.

I still think a Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson, Perkins team would be a 47-50 win team.

[billfromBoston]

...I have a major problem with three points in that article...


1. KG is declining right now

2. Ray is slipping

3. Team is cooked in 3 years


It's amazing to me how people continue to look at the statistics, watch the games, and still not understand how a player's role changes and what is required of him changes as well.

For KG, his rebounding declined EVEN WHILE the team was still outrebounding its opponent most every night...the Celtics led the league in rebounding differential up until mid-January...KG wasn't rebounding as much because he didn't have to...he was not only playing less minutes, but using less energy to get through games

For Ray, Allen has been shooting a SUBSTANTIALLY disproportionate amount of 3 pointers as opposed to seasons past. 12% more of his shots are from behind the arc, though his 2pt FG% was higher than his career average and his 3pt FG% is on par with his career mark. Since KG's injury, Allen's game has really picked up as well. His shooting percentages are starting to rise, which is not surprising seeing as he's had 50+ games to get use to a completely different role than he's played in 5-6 years..

Finally, the idea that this team is simply going to sit idly by while it ages and deteriorates is insane at best and ignorant at worst....KG probably has anywhere from 5-8 years left in him as a productive player, he may not be a franchise player in 3 years, but he can man the PF/C position on this team for years after his prime and still contribute leadership, rebounding, passing, and solid offense-ala Karl Malone....this will extend the window for this team substantially...

The second half of that equation is the money that Pierce and Allen currently make...in 3 season both of those players will either be off the books completely or their re-signing figure will be around 7 million a piece, which will open up anywhere from 18-35 million on the cap. The team will also have developed a very solid young core of Perk/Davis/Allen/Rondo/Powe who will be grizzled playoff veterans in 3 more seasons while still being about 27 years old on average...these role players will give the type of veteran support the aging stars need to remain effective by picking their spots instead of having to carry the load throughout the game...

With a stellar reputation from contending for titles and an excellent young cast of role players, the Celtics can parlay that extra cap space into a sizable FA bid for players like Dwayne Wade or some other star player looking to join a highly successful club...

This team has a bright future because it is run by people that think in the long term as well as the short...I don't think this team will be out of contention in the East for quite some time...enough of this "3 year window" crap...if Danny Ainge has shown us anything its that he knows how to plan ahead...

[s1ickd]

You need a top 5 player in the league to win a championship. It's that simpe. Go back the past 25 years and that holds true. Duncan, Shaq+Kobe, Olajuwon, Jordan, Isiah, Bird, Magic+Kareem.....

the Pistons of late were an exception. the lakers were a better roster (Kobe+Shaq with a ridiculous supporting cast) but simply self destructed and broke apart their dynasty.

Gasol and Jefferson will never be top 5 players in the league. they don't have a big enough impact on the defensive end.

When KG retires, the ultimate goal is to find another top 5 candidate.

Think about every celtics team that won a title. they were led by guys like Cousy, Russel, Heinsohn, Havilcek, Bird..... those were all top 5 players in the league during their respective times.

2 of them are in the top 5 players of all time.

[UGA Hayes]

...I have a major problem with three points in that article...


1. KG is declining right now

2. Ray is slipping

3. Team is cooked in 3 years


It's amazing to me how people continue to look at the statistics, watch the games, and still not understand how a player's role changes and what is required of him changes as well.

For KG, his rebounding declined EVEN WHILE the team was still outrebounding its opponent most every night...the Celtics led the league in rebounding differential up until mid-January...KG wasn't rebounding as much because he didn't have to...he was not only playing less minutes, but using less energy to get through games

For Ray, Allen has been shooting a SUBSTANTIALLY disproportionate amount of 3 pointers as opposed to seasons past. 12% more of his shots are from behind the arc, though his 2pt FG% was higher than his career average and his 3pt FG% is on par with his career mark. Since KG's injury, Allen's game has really picked up as well. His shooting percentages are starting to rise, which is not surprising seeing as he's had 50+ games to get use to a completely different role than he's played in 5-6 years..

Finally, the idea that this team is simply going to sit idly by while it ages and deteriorates is insane at best and ignorant at worst....KG probably has anywhere from 5-8 years left in him as a productive player, he may not be a franchise player in 3 years, but he can man the PF/C position on this team for years after his prime and still contribute leadership, rebounding, passing, and solid offense-ala Karl Malone....this will extend the window for this team substantially...

The second half of that equation is the money that Pierce and Allen currently make...in 3 season both of those players will either be off the books completely or their re-signing figure will be around 7 million a piece, which will open up anywhere from 18-35 million on the cap. The team will also have developed a very solid young core of Perk/Davis/Allen/Rondo/Powe who will be grizzled playoff veterans in 3 more seasons while still being about 27 years old on average...these role players will give the type of veteran support the aging stars need to remain effective by picking their spots instead of having to carry the load throughout the game...

With a stellar reputation from contending for titles and an excellent young cast of role players, the Celtics can parlay that extra cap space into a sizable FA bid for players like Dwayne Wade or some other star player looking to join a highly successful club...

This team has a bright future because it is run by people that think in the long term as well as the short...I don't think this team will be out of contention in the East for quite some time...enough of this "3 year window" crap...if Danny Ainge has shown us anything its that he knows how to plan ahead...

I think point 2 is very real. To me Ray has clearly lost a step and some bounce. He used to be able to get to the rim a lot more easily than he does now. Plus there are nights, esp back end of the back to back, where his jump shots look worse than rondo's. I've said this for a while but I think ditching Ray in the off season would be a smart move.

[sully00]

Ray Allen is having the 4th best shooting season of his HOF career based on his TS% and eFG%, it may not matter to you and that is fine but combine that with the second lowest usage rate of his career and career year defensively and you not only see why Ray isn't going anywhere but why he is one of the big reasons that this team is 44-12.

Based on defensive ratings and the fact that he plays for the best defensive team in the league, you can at least make the argument that Ray Allen is the best defensive SG in the East and who would have thought that in NOV.