The Impact of PJ Brown & Sam on the Rotation

[sully00]

My mistake, Posey would be in the trusted 6 PJ is probably more in between. While I agree about the Tony playing like he is on crack that is offensively, defensively you can trust him and at the SG you can trust him.

As far as Rondo and Sam. The thing that Sam brings to me more than anything else is that he is shooting about 89% from the line. I think you will see a lot of late game switches and the situation dictating who plays late. We may even see small ball with Paul at the PF spot.

[Collinto]

I believe Riley, who Doc played for, says play 8 and trust 6. With Sam, Doc now has KG, PP, Ray, Tony, PJ, Sam, to trust and Rondo and Perk to play.

I think that Posey is in Tony's place, but I assume that those 8 (same starting 5 w/Cassell, Posey, Brown) will be our playoff rotation. With Cassel, Ray, Pierce, Posey, KG logging the crunch time minutes, with Brown and Rondo logging some 'defensive' crunch time minutes depending on match ups.

Tony, House, the large infant and Powe will continue to get some run through the seasons end to ensure the main eight are healthy and rested for the final 16 wins of the season.

[Datruth345]

As far as Rondo and Sam. The thing that Sam brings to me more than anything else is that he is shooting about 89% from the line. I think you will see a lot of late game switches and the situation dictating who plays late. We may even see small ball with Paul at the PF spot.

thats a great point, and will be of great benefit for us come playoff time

sure rondo can get to the rim and is "as good as A.I. from the free throw line down" as pierce is said

but in the playoffs he will be forced to "earn" his buckets and he is not a good free throw shooter

[GuyClinch]

While these statistics do show a rough level of effectiveness both team and league-wide, the figures themselves are not an accurate reflection of a player's impact on the game, just an estimate...

It's really rough like I was saying.

Don't get me wrong I like to use them to bolster my argument when I see things differently then other posters. If someone tells me that Sam is a horrific defender who can't guard a chair I can point to his PER against and say I don't know about that.

But we have two large sources of error - as BillFromBoston pointed out we don't have guys matchup against eachother consistently and even when they do you have to account for the overall team defense. It's alot easier on a guard if you have KG back then aren you get beat. That might not show up on your PER "number" as KG can come fix the situation. So that right there is a ton of error.

And then there is another even larger problem with PER, TENDEX, efficency and the like. And that's more philosophical if you will. It's that we haven't really proven WHAT stats = WHAT results. Hollinger has his little guesses and says you know a missed shot is minus this much or a foul shot or an assist counts that much..

But there is not grand formula which tells us an assist is equal to point scored or 3 rebounds is as valuable as a three pointer or what have you. And it's likely there cannot be - as these numbers would vary by situation. The PER formula is making all kinds of assumptions that haven't really been proven out yet. Unlike in baseball where you can really make some very convincing arguments about Bill James statistics..

Again this is good thing because it puts emphasis on individual scouting and peoples eyes not just numbers. Numbers are handy though if there is this tremendous disagreement about a player. If I think say D. West is a weak player and he is putting up a PER differential of +20. Well then we all know I should shut up and also admit his greatness.

And believe me there are disagreements about this. I say no matter what some fans eyes say guys like AI who put up GOOD Per differentials are really good.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07DEN3C.HTM

That's Allen Iverson and if you talk to the majority of fans he is the problem with Denver. In reality he is the best player on that team.

Pete

[billfromBoston]

My mistake, Posey would be in the trusted 6 PJ is probably more in between. While I agree about the Tony playing like he is on crack that is offensively, defensively you can trust him and at the SG you can trust him.

As far as Rondo and Sam. The thing that Sam brings to me more than anything else is that he is shooting about 89% from the line. I think you will see a lot of late game switches and the situation dictating who plays late. We may even see small ball with Paul at the PF spot.

...this point is huge...

There is far too much debate on absolute roles here...the Cassell/Rondo debate epitomizes this...

It is wrong for Doc to just "stick" with one or the other in the 4th quarter or closing minutes of the game...the situation and how well each is playing are EVERYTHING...

...this isn't baseball, where set up men come in during a particular inning...the only thing that is set for the most part is the playing rotation and the initial substitutions...the 2nd half of the game is all about who is doing what well and who isn't...

PJ and Sam will be used situationally depending on what the team needs on a given night...some nights that may mean 25 minutes, but sometimes it may just be for a key stretch of time or for a specific situation....

The key to all this is OPTIONS and the ability to get a FULL 48 MINUTES of quality play out of each position....these two acquisitions give the team just that, an increased probability of getting top production out of each position for the whole game...

[UGA Hayes]

^ Well I think thats what we are all hoping. What we are afraid of is that Doc will just decide to always goto Sam or always go to PJ. Its unclear in my mind what Doc would do. But I've certainly seen coaches who were pretty rigid in this regard. Plus there will be a lot of "expert" pressure to play Sam.

Just check out the outrage on ESPN about Avery sitting Kidd in the last moments of last nights game.

[floyd]

Doc seems to have ridden the hot hand (especially with the bench guys) quite a bit this year.

I'm not sure that guys outside the top 8 or 9 can't see any burn or have an impact in a series. Those "speciallty" kind of guys (I'm think House in particular) can be a real spark if we're just getting killed in a certain aspect of the game (e.g., they're packing in the paint on Rondo or out quicking Perk to the boards). 1-13 we've got guys that can contribute. I've seen guys come out of no where to help win series in the past. You don't want to rely on those youngens but if someone is sucking a it's nice to have options.

[GuyClinch]

People are way to down on House. I suppose he will lose some minutes to Sam but I love him out there. He is just slumping a bit - he has done a nice job for us. Sure he isn't that great when he is not shooting well. But when he is on he can bury teams. He hits jumpers that just suck away a teams heart.

Pete

[jfs1000d]

Why are we down on House?

Cassell and House are going to play together. The squeeze will be a little on Rondo, and a lot on TA. TA's turnover penchant drives hank nuts.

Brown will take minutes from perk, and probably veal and pollard (thank god). We'll see less posey at the 4 too.

[JHTruth]

Brown will essentially phase out BBD, at least for this season. The guy is just a foul machine as a rookie here and his offense isn't good enough to cover up his defensive laibilities. He will play only in garbage time when Pajama Brown starts to play..

[GuyClinch]

It remains to be seen what happens to Powe and BBD. Some people think Powe will lose minutes. Other think it's BBD - Tommy thinks PJ won't get any minutes at all.

It's the same with Cassell. I think Cassell will eat into TA's minutes, House and Rondos.. Rondo was awesome tonight but thats not enough if Sam comes into a game and plays lights out Rondo going to be staying on the bench longer then he would normally be

Pete

[keltickings]

Looking at the minutes distribution of the team since KG's return, and right before his injury, it's something like:

PG: Rajon Rondo 31 / House 17

SG: Ray Allen 38 / Tony Allen 10

SF: Paul Pierce 38 / James Posey 10

PF: Kevin Garnett 24 / James Posey 12 / Leon Powe 12

C: Kendrick Perkins 24 / KG 11 / Glen Davis 13

Analyzing the results for these players, and who you would want to replace, would leave me to believe that PJ Brown may be more than insurance. He may actually get time at the C spot, taking time from Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis; or shifting Garnett back to Power Forward a bit more and allowing KG to play less Center. But, when you look at his NET PER from his last season with the Chicago Bulls, it is doubtful that he will take time from Perkins, Davis, or Posey; although he could quite possibly be a better defender than Perk, and definately better than Leon, at Center.

Ironically, even though PJ is longer, with a greater standing reach, can play post defense on centers, and hit jumpers out to 18 feet, whether he still has game there will remain to be seen.

Sam, on the other hand, looks to cut into House's minutes, and maybe some of Rondo's. Depends on tempo, and how well Rondo and/or House are playing that day.

A very good analysis.

So what is the impact of PJ Brown and Cassell on the rotation?

PJ Brown's impact I think will be minimal. He pushes Pollard out of rotation and takes a couple to a few minutes away from Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Leon "L-Train" Powe. A veteran insurance policy who will only benefit our team with his presence.

Sam Cassell's impact is more significant. His presence will effect the minutes of House and T Allen the most. He will probably take all of T Allen's minutes at point moving him to concentrate on his best position SG. I see House still playing both guard positions but more 2guard.

We'll see

I heard a very interesting quote by Cassell tonight.

Early during the Clippers Nuggets game on ESPN either the announcer or Ric Buecher claimed when they asked Sammy, 'are you ready to no longer be a starter?' The claimed response from Sam was, "I'm ready to play 20 minutes a game and come off the bench." Perhaps a bit paraphrased but in essense.

Interesting statement on minutes.

I don't really see Cassell averaging 20 minutes a game. He will play more than 20 minutes on certain nights when he's hot and we need him but I don't see him averaging more than 15 mpg. Reg season or playoffs.

Yes, we will play with 8-10 man rotations during the remainder of season at times and especially in playoffs. These are estimated minute averages by position I see for the playoffs. Of course, barring lengthy major/minor injuries.


PG: Rondo 30, Cassell 15, House 3

SG: RAllen 32, TAllen 10, House 6

SF: Pierce 36, Posey 12,

PF: Garnett 27, Powe 9, Posey 6

C: Perkins 24, Garnett 9, Davis 10, PJ Brown 5

Insurance: PJ BROWN plays when foul trouble or injury calls for it.

Casualties/Insurance become: Scalabrine, Pruitt, and Pollard.

Davis and Powe could easily be switched and they both will man the C and PF positions.


So PJ's impact on the rotation seems minimal while Sam's is a different story.


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Bring on Detroit Wednesday