Constructive thread on making Phoenix better

[Arles]

OK, we have enough of the Chicken Little threads out there, so I figured we could use one devoted to giving reasons for their struggles and ideas/options for improvement.

Here's the first piece of analytical data. If you look at the past 32 games, Nash has played 16 games over 35 MPG and 16 games at or below 35 MPG. In those games, you have 11 without Marion and 21 with Marion - and they are fairly uniform between the two groups. Here's the data:

36+ MPG:
607 total minutes played in 16 games (38 MPG)
82 total turnovers (5.13 TOPG)
1 turnover every 7.4 minutes played

35 or under MPG:
511 total minutes played in 16 games (32 MPG)
49 total turnovers (3.06 TOPG)
1 turnover every 10.4 minutes played

So, in just those 4 extra minutes, Nash is having over 2 turnovers per game in the heavy minute games. This shows that if Mike D would just cut Nash's minutes back to the 30-32 range, I think some of the turnover issues would disappear.

Now let's look at Bell. First, he's played a ton of minutes. But, if you make the cutoff 37 MPG, you get this data on shooting 3s:

37+ MPG:
742 total minutes played in 18 games (41 MPG)
45-128 from 3 (35%)
1 made 3 every 16.5 minutes played

36 or under MPG:
443 total minutes played in 14 games (32 MPG)
31-77 from 3 (40%)
1 made 3 every 14.3 minutes played

So, again, you have a much more effective player when you get below that 36-37 minute mark. This shows pretty clearly than Mike D needs to take around 10 combined MPG off Bell and Nash and hand it to someone like DJ. By doing this both Bell and Nash will be more effective and DJ can add some energy/defense when it's gravely needed.

[ClosAZ]

^ Arles you're right. And I think Dantoni's intention is to run our older/veteran players into the ground (Nash, Hill, Bell esp.) in pursuit of a championship at the cost of developing our younger players for success down the road. I mean the face of our team the last few years has been our "seven starters", 2-3 veteran minimum guys picked up right before the season or sometime during it, and practice scrubs (Burke, Piatkowski, Marks types).

After all if the Suns fall flat this year in the playoffs and Dantoni is say fired, it's not his mess to worry about what happens to the team down the road in terms of player development, draft picks etc.

Again, I'm sticking by the Suns through thick and thin and will support them regardless but I really don't like the player managment by Dantoni or his long term development with players esp during the regular season. If I have to see on more key injury to a player during the playoffs (say Raja Bell) and nothing to fall back on (like Strawberry getting a real shot, not 2 minute stretches) I'll feeling like putting a hole in my TV.

I mean come on Mike, if Boris starts playing like a P!@#y then play Skinner instead. I don't care if he's making 9 million per year, bench his butt and play a guy that's not getting called for traveling 3 times in a quarter.

In terms of the Shaq trade, I'm giving it more time as we all should, but I just don't see Shaq making an effective adjustment for setting a high pick and roll with Nash esp. after playing in the low post for 15 years in the league. Dantoni needs to recognize this and when Shaq's in the game keep him down on the block. I mean he's great at setting screens and all with his big body but why the heck do you think every other team tries to get Shaq to defend a pick and roll up high? Because he's big and slow. This is a situation where Dantoni and Nash actually need to adapt more to Shaq on the team as oppossed to every player and offensive scheme centered around Steve Nash.

We're all going to see how effective a coach Mike D will be with this in the next several months that's for sure...

[tsherkin]

A very interesting observation...

And the side effect of less Nash/Bell and more DJ would be better perimeter defense, because that's at what DJ is good. I think it's a fantastic idea.

Here, of course, is where having Brent Barry would be better than Giricek, because there really isn't someone else besides Nash you want running the team on account of Barbosa being dense as a point guard but Strawberry might do in short bursts. Theoretically, D'Antoni should be taking him under his wing and making his "best PG in the history of Europe-ness" mojo work towards developing DJ's talents as a distributor.

Great post, Arles.

[walkingart]

Interesting to say the least. Accurate, I would beg to differ.

I haven't looked at the stats per game as you have, but I would argue that Nash's high turnovers are not a product of his minutes, but that his high minutes are a product of us getting out played and sticking with our better players for more minutes. And the better the team we are playing, the better their defense is going to be.

The same goes for Bell, the better a team we are playing(and I don't mean record wise, but rather in that specific game), the more minutes he is going to play. Also, the better a team we are playing the least likely he is to be standing wide open behind the arc.

I would agree that DJ needs more minutes, he seems to be as affective as Bell defensively and far more so than Barbs.

[Arles]

Interesting to say the least. Accurate, I would beg to differ.

I haven't looked at the stats per game as you have

Well, this is a good start...

but I would argue that Nash's high turnovers are not a product of his minutes, but that his high minutes are a product of us getting out played and sticking with our better players for more minutes. And the better the team we are playing, the better their defense is going to be.

But this doesn't jive with the stats. Here are the last 11 games Nash has played more than 36 minutes against:
Philly (39)
Memphis (40)
Boston (39)
Dallas (39)
GS (37)
Washington (38)
Seattle (37)
NO (45 - OT game)
Cleveland (37)
Chicago (37)
Milwaukee (37)

Out of that list, only five are what I would consider "good teams". Here are his last 11 games with under 37 min:
NO, Detroit, Lakers, Charlotte, Atlanta, Minny, New Jersey, Clippers, Indiana and Denver

Once again, you are at around 4-5 "good teams"

I would agree that DJ needs more minutes, he seems to be as affective as Bell defensively and far more so than Barbs.

This is the point of the post. By knocking Nash and bell each down 5 MPG, you not only make them more effective (esp down the stretch), you get 10 minutes of energy and defense by DJ.

[walkingart]

Philly-Lost
Memphis-up by 1 at start of 4th, I think?
Boston-good team, never able to really pull away
Dallas-good team, hung around all night
GS-Lost, by 2
Washington-Won by 1
Seattle-Won by 4
NO-Lost, close game throughout
Cleveland-Won by 2
Chicago-Won,up only 4 to start 4th
Milwaukee-Won, down six to start 4th

When I say good teams, I don't mean record wise, I mean on that night. Of those eleven games, the two games we had in hand best were against Dallas and Boston.

As far as the good teams that we played and Nash didn't have a bunch of minutes, we were blown out by NO and Det. The LAL game is a statistical anomoly, and I guess Denver is the other good team, we blew them out, up 16 to start the 4th.

Simply put, the nights we are not playing well and controlling the game, Mike D plays Nash more minutes in hopes of getting a win. Games over 36 minutes we are 8-3, with an average losing margin of 3 points.

In the 11 games under 36 minutes we are 5-6 with average losing margin over 11 points per game, and a bunch of blow out victories.

So, when Mike D thinks having Nash on the court is going to give us a better chance of winning he plays him more and a record of 8-3 in those games says its working. When we are blowing teams out or getting blown out he sits him.

All that being said, I don't think Bell on the court over DJ gives us a better chance of winning, and thus DJ should be seeing more minutes, but not at the expense of sitting Nash and losing some of those close games. In years past, we should have played our bench more because our record and margin of victories allowed it. This year is a different, if we lose 4 or 5 games that we should have won, we could find our selves out of the playoffs or in the 7/8 slot.

[mkot]

Good post Arles. Mike keeps saying Raja plays better when he plays 36+ minutes. Not buying it. I want quality over quantity.

Eventually, our perimeter D is really lacking right now and Raja is not cutting it. I'd cut 10 of his minutes and give it to DJ, seriously. And then the team as a whole needs to be accountable for their defensive play. actually think Nash is a better defender than Amare one on one because if Nash is left on an island to guard his man one on one he usually does pretty well at keeping his man in front of him. It is in the pick and roll that we are mainly getting killed. Stop showing on the pick and roll. God, I said it since Shaq's 1st game against the Lakers. The whole showing on pick and rolls instead of sliding under them is just dumb. I can not believe that we have Shaq out there chasing people around the 3 point line. Heck even Amare shouldn't be out there. Specially since the guard rarely presses the double team to make it worth it. Then we just have a slightly inconvenienced guard ready to make a pass to the wide open big man cutting through the middle. If he doesn't hit that guy cause someone collapses then he throws it to that mans guy. Wide open three pointer which is even worse cause Amare's man has the head start down the lane and is now in perfect position to box Amare out and grab the rebound. This is not working but they keep doing it it's frustrating.

Offensively, I think I saw some improvements...we ran some set plays, and dumped it to Shaq in the low post several times. We just couldn't make stop and couldn't take care of the ball.

[PHXfan85]

Can we link MD to this or someting? Dbdynasty, email this to your contact so they can put it in MD's in-box!

[HootieRules]

It's too bad DJ's minutes have been so up and down all year. I think if we would've played him consistently he would be able to give us a solid 20 minutes. He's a beast defensively, still seems a little out of place offensively.

We have to get Shaq on the low block. Will it clog up the lane and make Amare more of a shooter? Sure. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. Trying to make Shaq play up high and set picks is useless. He needs to get on the low block, kick it out more and not force it. Hope guys like Raja, Hill, Nash, LB and Boris can knock down shots. Putting him down there also slows the game down and that favors us because it will slow down the opposing team's transition. That's where I'd start.

[Dr. Laker]

It's simple. This Summer:

1. Trade Nash to Toronto for Calderon and Rasho Nesterovic.
2. Trade Shaq to Cleveland for Varejao and Ilgauskas
3. Trade Diaw to Sacramento for Artest
4. Trade Ilgauskas and ATL #1 to Philly for Dalembert.

Calderon/Barbosa
Barbosa/Bell/Strawberry/Tucker
Artest/Hill
Stoudamire/Varejao
Dalembert/Nesterovic

[walkingart]

It's too bad DJ's minutes have been so up and down all year. I think if we would've played him consistently he would be able to give us a solid 20 minutes. He's a beast defensively, still seems a little out of place offensively.

We have to get Shaq on the low block. Will it clog up the lane and make Amare more of a shooter? Sure. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. Trying to make Shaq play up high and set picks is useless. He needs to get on the low block, kick it out more and not force it. Hope guys like Raja, Hill, Nash, LB and Boris can knock down shots. Putting him down there also slows the game down and that favors us because it will slow down the opposing team's transition. That's where I'd start.

Good post. DJ deserves more minutes for sure. Shaq needs to be on the block and not out on the wing or on the top of the key. Bringing him in makes us worse defensively, but if he can keep Amare on the court for more minutes we should be that much better offensively and if we can cut our turnovers down we will be much more efficient.

[Togo]

Play DJ and Tucker 10 minutes each a game should help out. After that its just a waiting game.

[ma_falaa_50]

is linton johnson still in the team? I would like to see him get more playing time. he has the length and defense that can help phx right now. I think Barbosa on defense is really bothersome. He just doesnt have the commitment. He constantly leaves his man open. He has no clue with what to do with his length. I think Barbosa would a good trade bait if phx an address perimeter defense.

[eastsidecrossover]

We all know MD is going to do what he does no matter who is on the bench. He is stubburn, and will run our vets into the ground.

I know we all hate the lakers, but what phil has done with his bench, his young players is what a coach should do with them. Give them some confidence, give them so fire and encouragment. Let them go out and mess up some, and play hard. Thats one of the reasons why the lakers have such a better bench then anyone else.

I think MD will show to us what kind of coach he is. And right now, I would say not that good.

[mckane]

Well... here are my thoughts on the Suns after the SHAQuisition.

The more I watch this team (and how out of sync they've been) I'm convinced that this team (for better or worse) needs to play more like the Utah Jazz of old (with Malone and Stockton). Utah always had a serviceable big man in the middle to pick up boards and take up space. Stockton and Malone ran pick and pop/dive better than anyone probably ever (my apologies to KJ and Chambers, but they were better). PHX can still run the pick and pop/dive with Shaq on the court, but it will me more pop and less dive.

It's time for the offense to flow from Nash to Amare. And every once in a while, you get Shaq the ball coming across the lane on on the low block or under the hoop on a low screen. Shaq can still create space and catch the ball around the rim and score. But they really need to stop running him at the high post... he looks like a fish out of water. Plus, he can't grab offensive boards up there anyway.

On defense, they need to play SMARTER and harder. They need to play with their hands up off the ball, and they need to play better help off ball defense.

PHX has been amazing at defense in spurts this year, but they always got killed on the glass... so it seemed like they weren't playing good defense - even though it was actually opposing teams killing us on the glass.

I'm trying to muster up a bit more faith in this team. It is hard when they are playing so poorly, but I still will withhold judgment until they play the Spurs next Sunday.

We'll have a much better gauge for where this team is headed (if anywhere) after this week. Hold onto your seatbelts... it's either going to get really fun, or really ugly really quick.

[TASTIC]

I don't understand why DJ doesn't get minutes...When he plays he consistently disrupts the oppostion on defence. The guy deflects balls, blocks the odd shot and makes the tough fouls. When I say tough fouls, I mean an attempted block in mid air - not like the ones Raja seems to be doing which almost seem out of laziness or a relaxed 'well I've been beaten' attitude. Would not surprise me if DJ is the subject of trade rumours in the offseason - we're underutilising him and other teams will throw a 2nd rounder and we'll stupidly bite. Im not saying he's the second coming of Raja, but he has the physical skills and attitude to be a real menace to guys like Paul, Deron, Manu even Kobe he did ok against.

Giricek allows the court to be spread a bit more I hope, which if it does nothing else, will let Shaq go down and STAY on the lowblock. The guy's who say other teams are laying off Shaq after he sets a pick are spot on; it's a major reason Nash's turnovers are up, Shaq has not and never will just roll majestically to the rim like Amare or Marion. Don't make him something he's NOT, use him for what he's best at.

[Mr. Sun]

Don't make him something he's NOT, use him for what he's best at.

Exactly! He is a bulldozer, not a ballet dancer.

[garrick]

Also Tucker is now probably the second most athletic person behind Amare, I would like us to utilize him a little more too.

[JaeRell]

..play the bench.
..never use shaq on high screens.

..use these four main plays..
nash/amare...nash/hill...pick and roll
post/iso amare
post shaq
post/iso grant hill

bam..

since yalls man to man defense sucks so bad how about trying some zone defense?

[Melon Yellow]

We wonder why Nash and Bell are struggling a bit? The amount of time they're playing on the floor is too much. We need to give our bench guys more time. Expecially DJ. He needs to be in there. And whats the deal with Skinner? Does Shaq mean that we can just forget about Skinner? I think D'antoni is afraid to play certain guys now. He should be a man and play some guys. If we have some ugly circumstances come and some guys can't play, what will we do? I doubt our lower-level bench guys have much confidence in themselves now because they seem to never get time. Mike is going to wish he played them more.