How to handle this complicated offseason

[Bimbo_Coles]

This has been a really exciting year, and one of the best things is to see a glimpse of our future. This is going to be a really important off season for our future.

If you look at our roster we really have two levels of players. We have a group of guys that are in their prime right now (Davis, Jackson, Harrington), and a group of young super high ceiling guys (Ellis, Wright, and Biedrins).

Although we have made some great progress, I don't see this team truly competing for a championship until the young core has a few more years of experience. The key will be planing the facilitation of Davis/Jackson/Harrington passing this team off to Ellis/Wright/Biedrins. Here is how I would handle the offseason.

Free Agency

- Sign Ellis to a 5 year 54 million dollar contract starting at 8 million with annual 15% raises. This is just about what Kevin Martin signed for, and would be a pretty fair deal for Ellis.

- Sign Biedrins to a 5 year 47 million dollar contract starting at 7 million with annual 15% raises. This is about where the market is for a player like Biedrins.

- Sign Baron to a 3 year extension for 45 million starting at 13 million with annual 15% raises

- Sign both Azubuike and Barnes to 3 year deals at about 3-4 million annually with a team option for the 3rd year. I'm not sure if there will be much interest around the league for these guys, and if they get offered long term contracts, I would be very careful about matching. While they are great role players, they are replaceable.

- Let Pietrus and POB walk.

Trade

Use the TPE on a Draft Day deal to acquire Earl Watson and Phoenix's 08 1st round pick from Seattle. This move will allow Seattle to be a big player in the Gilbert Arenas Sweepstakes. If they miss out this year, they will be lined up for huge cap room in the '09 offseason. Watson fills a need, and we get another top pick. They have so many picks stocked up, that they're willing to give one up to cut salary.

Draft



1st rounder # 1: Tyler Smith. This guy will be groomed to be Stephen Jackson's replacement. I love his heart, and he can bring the intensity emotion that is lacked amongst the rest of our young core. He was Brandan Wright's rival in high school, and it would be great to have those two duking it out in practice.

1st rounder #2: Alexis Ajinca. He will be developed to take over Al Harrington's role. He is super long and athletic, and has the makings of a good jump shot with 3pt range. His game is a great compliment to those of Biedrins and Wright, and would be a great addition to our young big man stable. He needs to fill out and is definitely a project, but we have the luxury of letting him season behind Al for a few years.

After these deals, you now have a veteran core of Davis, Jackson, Harrington, Barnes, and Watson to go with a young core of Ellis, Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, Smith, and Ajinca.

After 2 more years with the current squad, Jackson, Harrington, Barnes, and Watson will all come off the books. Davis will stick around for at least an extra year to facilitate the youngins taking over. Here is what you will be left with (including their 2010/11 salary.)

Davis $14.950,000
Ellis $10,580,000
Biedrins $8,050,000
Wright $3,398,071
Belinelli $2,380,270
Smith $1,362,120 (Rookie Scale for the 20th pick)
Ajinca $1,156,920 (Rookie Scale for the 25th pick)
2009 1st rounder $1,081,440 (Rookie Scale for the 25th pick)
2010 1st rounder $1,005,960 (Rookie Scale for the 25th pick)

Total $43,964,781

The projected '08 Salary cap will be roughly 64-65 Million. This means that we would have about 20 million dollars in cap space to go along with a team that has made the playoffs for 4 straight years, plays an electric and exciting style, has a great young nucleus, and is in a large and attractive market. Could there be a more attractive Free Agent location?

Who will be on the market that off season? Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, Joe Johnson. Not to forget some older and likely much cheaper additions including Dirk, Tmac, Ginobili and Ray Allen. How about this for a 2011 Championship Squad?

Davis/Draft Pick
Ellis/Belinelli
Lebron/Smith
Wright/Ajinca
Biedrins/Draft Pick

Anyone wanna forward this to Mully?[/u]

[rutheredfox]

ideally, i'd want elli's contract to be under 50, but that doesn't look likely. i also think we'll resign pietrus even if it means signing and trading him. azu and barnes need us as much as we need them, but as bad as it sounds, pietrus is a better trade bait than both barnes and azu. the league tends to favor guys who are athletic and hustle.

[gswhoops]

If we can get the extensions done before draft night (I'm not sure we can...CBA expert?) then I'm all over that Seattle deal. Otherwise no way. It would be tragic to give Seattle cap space only to use it by stealing Ellis or Biedrins away from us.

Like the Tyler Smith pick, he's a baller.

[sanddude909]

- Sign Baron to a 3 year extension for 45 million starting at 13 million with annual 15% raises

***********

I think there is no chance Baron signs for what amounts to a 40% or so pay cut from his current annual salary of $18-19 million.

If he would - any after getting one max contract for $86 million, how many more millions does one need? - then I'm all over this.

But I think he's looking for more years at more dollars.

I also think it's going to take more than $100 million to re-sign Andris and Monta. I'd think you'd be looking at 5 years for each with Monta starting at close to $10 million and Andris starting at close to $8 million.

[Warriorfan]

I would trade the exemption for a future 1st.

Let the market set the price for Biedrens and Ellis since GS can match anything. Probably Frontload the contract

Barnes and Buke are offered the minimum for vets.

Draft the best player available.
Fille out the roster with older vets who will play for the vet minimum 1 million.



Baron is offered a one year extension at the max so the Davis, Jackson, Harrington trio all expire at the same time to be let go or more likely used as a sign and trade for a top younger player.

Be big players in the 2010 Free Agent Pool

[FGump]

There is no such thing as a 15% raise.

[darobster17]

I will predict that they will shop Harrington in the offseason to clear some cap room to resign BD,Ellis and Beans. Ideal scenario is we deal Harrington and get a Rudy Gay type of player in the upcoming draft.(Batum) I would not be surprised if we take another Euro or foreign player though or take a combo guard.

Pietrus could be a goner but if he continues to play well he could stay. Mp is a better shooter than Barnes but Barnes knows how to play for Nelly.
AzuBuki I think will stay.

I'd like them to make that trade exemption predraft trade that gets them a first rounder but if they don't...can they use the money from the trade exemption to resign BD,Ellis or Beans??

On the free agent market, I'd like them to get Josh Smith. Getting Josh Smith would no doubt improve our rebounding,shotblocking and fits into our run and gun tempo. I'd settle for Marvin Williams if Josh Smith price is too high...

[BooRadley]

If we trade Harrington we better get a 3 point shooter who's as versatile as Al. For every crap game Al has, he has a great game that gets us back into it or starts us off hot. He's pretty vital I think.

[MightyReds2020]

Here are my reasonable expectations as far as Baron, Monta, Beans go:

Baron, extended with the starting salary of at least 16M
Monta, signed to a K-Mart-liked contract
Beans, signed to a contract that's at least at Monta's equals.

That will put the W right there with the luxury tax threshold and only 9 guaranteed contracts. they have only 3~4M to fill out the rest of the roster if they don't want to be over the tax land. So both Azubuike and Barnes are likely gone unless Cohan suddenly is willilng to pay the price. They are also not likely to use much, if at all, of the TE.

I agreed that the W may look to trade Harrington for a couple more players who could help and with reasonable contracts.

[nbenmargi]

What the OP said is about as close to ideal as I could hope for.

[Bimbo_Coles]

I think people have to remember that these guys are restricted free agents, and are a pivotal part of a good team. This is also a buyers market. Good teams are able to keep their players for reasonable salaries. Look at the Pistons. The one thing that worries me is if another team tries to break the bank for Ellis.

Look for Baron to sign something similar to what Vince did in the offseason. I don't think there is anyway he goes for more than that. Even at a Vince type deal, his 2010 salary would be right around 15 million.

[old rem]

I would trade the exemption for a future 1st.

Let the market set the price for Biedrens and Ellis since GS can match anything. Probably Frontload the contract

Barnes and Buke are offered the minimum for vets.

Draft the best player available.
Fille out the roster with older vets who will play for the vet minimum 1 million.



Baron is offered a one year extension at the max so the Davis, Jackson, Harrington trio all expire at the same time to be let go or more likely used as a sign and trade for a top younger player.

Be big players in the 2010 Free Agent Pool

Offering Barnes-Azu vet minimum would be dumb. They'd be insulterd-and easily will get more. You also are running a risk hardballing Biedrins-Ellis while asking Baron to take a short contract and pay cut. If we play cheapo....Ellis or Beans could take the QO and play out their deals-becoming UFA. Meanwhile-Baron could feel dissed-and bolt. We ARE conceding that 2 more of our ex-lotto picks walk away...with us getting zip.

Barnes and Azu were BARGAINS...they have been like getting a couple more rd 1 picks. We need them and we will have to pay $3 mill + for each.

Nene..Kaman...Dalembert...Curry...Chandler...all got near $10 mill per. We are gonna ask Biedrins to play for Mark Blount money? Look at the price for G's who are at Monta's level. Not cheap.

We won't have the loose change to pay Earl W $5 mill++ to be the #3 PG. We won't have the cap space to be chasing top $$ free agents. There ARE "hidden" cap hits....unsigned picks,FA's who have not yet been signed elsewhere.

[old rem]

You can't really trade the TPE for just a pick. It serves no point for the other team unless that team sends out salary. Otherwise....the TPE actually COUNTS as a cap hit.....though that's a non issue with it expiring by the time the season starts.

We can excercise the TPE to trade for a player or Player + pick. That-however-increases payroll. If we lose POB-Pietrus-Azu-Barnes...get a guy no better than any of them but almost as much $ as ALL of them....how dopey would that be?

[crzy]

2008 Offseason

1) Nellie retires
2) Monta, 5 years, $55 million
3) Biedrins, 5 years, $45 million
4) Barnes, 3 years, $10 million
5) Azubuike, 1 year, $3 million
6) Extend Baron, 3 years, $48 million
7) Larry Brown hired (friends, former neighbor of Chris Cohan, wants to coach again)
8] Chris Webber hired as assistant coach (NOT TO PLAY)
9) Gary Payton hired as assistant coach
10) POB gone, signed by Timberwolves
11) Pietrus walks, signs with San Antonio
12) Draft Kevin Love 1st round who falls inexplicably
13) Draft Sean Singletary 2nd round


Roster

PG Baron/Singletary
SG Monta/Belinelli/Azubuike
SF Jackson/Harrington/Barnes
PF Wright/Harrington/Love
C Biedrins/Perovic
Coach: Larry Brown