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JoshB914
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Post#41 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:09 pm

Chillz has a nice shot but he has to be wide open because of his ridiculos release. I've done a complete 180 on him this season, I hope we can keep him at the right price.
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Post#42 » by conleyorbust » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:22 pm

JoshB914 wrote:Without a guy like Chillz I think we are in trouble though. We have an offense where there are terrible shots all over the place, having a guy turning bricks and airballs into points is so valuable.

Obviously he is not a good defender and he will always be limited because of it. But I don't think we can underestimate what a guy like that does for our team, no matter what the stats say.


Right, but have you noticed that there are far more shots that are airballs when Chil is in the game? Thats because Smith shoots more jumpers when Chil is standing right under the net. That's why he hurts our spacing and that's why our fg% actually decreases with him in the game.

Like I said, I don't dislike Chil as a player but I think he has given less of an effort on D than ever before and he is taking fewer jumpers than ever before. His inability to space the floor for our true bigs hurts the benefit that his great efficiency brings, you can look at the numbers for yourself at 82games.com, you'll see that the scouting report we're giving you matches up well with the numbers you see.

I'd like to hear what kb has to say about this because I know he is a fan of +/- but I also know he loves Chil.
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Post#43 » by High 5 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:28 pm

Don't get me wrong, Childress frustrates the hell out of me some times, but I don't think he's a bad player. A good defender he is not, though. He is a great finisher and has kept us in a lot of games with his offense. Usually when our team is playing like crap he seems to be the one player that comes in and is actually able to do something.
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Post#44 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:33 pm

I'd like to see some stats saying Smoove shoots more airballs when Chillz is in the game. Firstly, Chillz plays 30 MPG so I don't see how you can find proof that it happens either way.

He logs minutes with our horrendous second unit and still produces like he always would. I cannot and will not say that a guy shooting 59% hurts us on offense.
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Post#45 » by tontoz » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:45 pm

JoshB914 wrote:I'd like to see some stats saying Smoove shoots more airballs when Chillz is in the game. Firstly, Chillz plays 30 MPG so I don't see how you can find proof that it happens either way.

He logs minutes with our horrendous second unit and still produces like he always would. I cannot and will not say that a guy shooting 59% hurts us on offense.


I just posted the link that shows how badly Childress pairs with JJ and Smith.

JJ shoots 37% paired with Childress. That is the lowest percentage that he shoots with any of the regular rotation players.
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Post#46 » by conleyorbust » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:52 pm

JoshB914 wrote:I'd like to see some stats saying Smoove shoots more airballs when Chillz is in the game. Firstly, Chillz plays 30 MPG so I don't see how you can find proof that it happens either way.

He logs minutes with our horrendous second unit and still produces like he always would. I cannot and will not say that a guy shooting 59% hurts us on offense.


I told you stats that say our offense shoots a lower percentage with him in the game. I'll give you the link.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

That is unbiased. You can give me correlaries if you want but there is absolutely no doubt that our team's shooting percentage is less effecient with Josh Childress in the game. For comparison, our effective shooting percentage (calculates 3 pointers too) is 1.4% lower with Smith but 2.4% lower with Childress. From a statistical perspective, that is a lot.

Does Chil play more minutes with "the second unit" and that is why it looks like he hurts our shooting %? Its hard to tell, he plays about as many minutes as Manu Ginobili so I wouldn't go so far as to say that Chil is being affected by who he plays with. He is always on the floor down the stretch, he plays a minute and a half fewer than Al Horford. Anyone who plays 30 minutes is going to be playing with the same mix as the starters.

Give me a legitimate response to my statement that when Chil is in the game our bigs take more jumpers in the half court and that is why our shooting percentage as a team goes down when he is in the game.

EDIT: and note that I didn't say he hurts us, just doesn't help us like you'd expect.
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Post#47 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 10:58 pm

I'm not going to go with the stats on this one. From watching games I think Chillz helps us an incredible amount. We can't go with stats on everything, I'm going off of what I see. And I see our ONLY backup who has been on the court and been effective.

I meant to respond to JJ shooting poorly. I can't beleive how often Woody plays those two together. Chillz should be buying more minutes for JJ who logs far too many minutes.

I'm not trying to overrated him as some have and I still say Marv needs to start over him. But he plays a very important role for our team. You may remember I was a huge proponent of renouncing him altogether this off season to get some cap relief or doing an S&T, I've changed my mind on that after seeing the way he has performed over the past month or so.
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Post#48 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:07 pm

Chilz is also the #10 ranked PER among SF's. I can pick and choose stats that support my case as well. But I'd rather just go off of what I see on the floor.
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Post#49 » by tontoz » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:07 pm

I'm not going to go with the stats on this one. From watching games I think Chillz helps us an incredible amount. We can't go with stats on everything, I'm going off of what I see.


Funny how selective you are. You had no problem going with the stats on Acie even though the stats were obviously unreliable because;

-Acie is a rookie
-he doesn't play many minutes
-he played hurt for a long time
-he plays most of his minutes with makeshift linueups of our weak bench players.

Childress is a 4 year vet who plays big minutes and is the first one off the bench. The stats are obviously more reliable in his case.
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Post#50 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:10 pm

The main thing I went off with IV was what I saw from him on the floor. I was just disputing the stats you used because they were selective and ignored other stats where he was weak.

As I said with PER, there are plenty of stats to support Chillz too. We could go back and forth for hours finding crazy stats to argue his effectiveness.
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Post#51 » by conleyorbust » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:19 pm

JoshB914 wrote:I'm not going to go with the stats on this one. From watching games I think Chillz helps us an incredible amount. We can't go with stats on everything, I'm going off of what I see. And I see our ONLY backup who has been on the court and been effective.

I meant to respond to JJ shooting poorly. I can't beleive how often Woody plays those two together. Chillz should be buying more minutes for JJ who logs far too many minutes.

I'm not trying to overrated him as some have and I still say Marv needs to start over him. But he plays a very important role for our team. You may remember I was a huge proponent of renouncing him altogether this off season to get some cap relief or doing an S&T, I've changed my mind on that after seeing the way he has performed over the past month or so.


Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he is a bad player or that he is a reason we are losing. I just wanted stats that supported the nagging feeling I had that Chil' presence under the basket in our halfcourt set hurt our post player's effectiveness. You can look at his rebounding alone and tell that he spends most of his time directly underneath the basket, how can a small forward be such a good offensive rebounder but such a bad defensive rebounder? If he obviously isn't a natively gifted rebounder or he'd be at least average on the D boards, no he's bouncing around the basket waiting for a shot to go up or a defender to leave the paint.
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Post#52 » by JoshB914 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:21 pm

That's why he's a role player. He's very good at certain things (his role) but not good at enough things to be a legit option.
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Post#53 » by conleyorbust » Thu Mar 6, 2008 11:32 pm

JoshB914 wrote:That's why he's a role player. He's very good at certain things (his role) but not good at enough things to be a legit option.


Fair enough, the reason I was so stubborn on that point was because this topic was brought up to talk about how our wings don't help us with our spacing. Since basketball is kind of a systems theory, our inside players can't do as much without our wings spacing the floor a little.

Not really ripping on Chil, just saying that we need one of our wings to be able to hit a shot OR we need to not set up our halfcourt offense in such a way that everybody can benefit.
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Post#54 » by BAMABIRD » Fri Mar 7, 2008 5:24 am

It took rip hamilton a long time to start shooting the three ball :-?
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Post#55 » by D21 » Fri Mar 7, 2008 11:28 am

tontoz wrote:
I like Chillz a lot. His "cherry picking" gets us a ton of baskets


huh? He averages 12 ppg.

While he is leaking out and slow getting back on D the opponents are getting wide open looks.

All those times he is standing under the basket on offense and we don't get the rebound he is going to be the last one to get back on defense.


Isn't here more a problem of coaching than a problem coming from Childress ? I think that if a coach said him to not do this kind of play, and he continues to do it, he would be bench for some games... It can't be all on Childress.
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Post#56 » by tontoz » Fri Mar 7, 2008 12:32 pm

D21 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Isn't here more a problem of coaching than a problem coming from Childress ? I think that if a coach said him to not do this kind of play, and he continues to do it, he would be bench for some games... It can't be all on Childress.


The same could be said for Smith jacking up jumpers.

but you have to ask the question; if Childress didn't leak out for easy buckets or hang under the rim for putbacks then what would he be good for? How would he score?

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