Post#14 » by Pogue Mahone » Sat Mar 8, 2008 8:58 pm
For starters, I think this is a pretty darn good draft. I think the most value is in the 18-23 range but I do think there are some nice options that could slide. As of right now, I assume that Americans Bill Walker (Kansas St), James Harden (Arizona St) and Marreese Speights (Florida) are going to be in. There is a chance that Internationals Alexis Ajinca (France - 1989), Serge Ibaka (Congo - 1989) and Rodrigue Beaubois (France - 1988) will be in, as well. I believe this year to be an extremely deep pool of international prospects (assuming they stay in the draft.)
Pick 30: If Ajinca, Speights, Walker or Harden are still there at 30, you have to take them. Fall back options are DeVon Hardin (Cal), Danny Green (UNC), Jason Thompson (Rider) and my sleeper pick, Pat Calathes (St Joes.) Another option might be to attempt to swing a deal with Portland or Seattle; they each have a bevy of 2nd RD picks (Portland has three and Seattle has four) which could be used to gamble a bit on high upside, not quite ready players and leave them stashed overseas to mature. I would be looking to get at least two picks from Portland (either Memphis' or New York's plus Phoenix's) and three from Seattle (Portland's, Denver's and New Orleans'.)
Pick 60: If Beaubois is available, he is my number one option. If unavailable, other options would include Aleks Maric (Nebraska) and Gavin Grant (NC St.)
I am really excited about the draft, though. There are a few guys I believe who are just lacking a bit of polish. I hope that Ainge doesn't completely foresake development in the name of win at all costs now. Don't get me wrong, I want to win now but I also want to win later.
Pat Calathes, for instance, is a 6'10 (some say 6'11) SF who is caught between two positions. He really doesn't have the athleticism to ever be anything more than an OK man-to-man defender against SFs in the NBA. He should be a pretty good help defender. As a PF, he lacks the strength to battle down low right now.
What is intriguing to me, other than his college results, which speak for themselves, is that he is a late bloomer because of a series of growth spurts. He was formally a 5'9-ish PG and, by my observation, appears to still have the ability to dribble and playmake for others. He is also a very good shooter. Rebounding is ok but nothing to write home about but that is partly because he lacks the athleticism to jump over people and the strength to battle underneath. He is having a breakout year, it's true, but part of that is because, even a college senior, his body is still growing. He was able to put on over 15 lbs of muscle in the off-season before his senior year. It wasn't that he wasn't committed to getting stronger, imo; it was that his body was still growing.
At worst, imo, he is Vladimir Radmanovic with a better attitude and better playmaking skills. Maybe Mike Dunleavy, Jr is a more apt comparison. Either way, Calathe is showing up as a 2nd RD'er in most mocks while both of those players where lottery picks.
Another encouraging element is that he already possesses a Greek passport. With that, he can play for high level teams in Europe without counting as a foreigner. Say the Celtics chose Calathe at 30 and encouraged him to round out his game in Europe? It could end up being one hell of an investment, imo.
In the 2nd RD, if he is still in the draft, I don't see Rodrigue Beaubois lasting to 60. If he did, oh man. A 6'3-ish PG with a 6'10 wingspan, Rondo type athleticism and hands. He is still growing into himself as a player, as well, because he came to the game late.
Aleks Maric as a fallback option isn't such a bad idea, either. He's a 6'11 275 C with low post moves. Nothing super special and somewhat limited by his lack of athleticism. Ahhh but Maric was a former soccer goalie. What happens if he drops down to 260? 255? He probably increases his mobility. Maybe never anything special but at pick 60 I think it would be a great gamble. Maric also holds a Croatian passport. Stashing him overseas isn't out of the question.
It's unfortunate that we don't have anything to move to Memphis or Seattle because I sense that there is going to be a handful of good players at the end of the 1st RD.
I don't know. I do know that we need someone who can alter a shot besides KG and Perk. Additionally, we need a wing, with upside but also right now contributions.
At the very least I would like to see us buy some 2nd RD'ers to invest in high upside prospects that we can cultivate overseas. I don't want this to be a two or three year enterprise. I would like to see them keep this thing moving forward.
