Ronny Turiaf & Sasha Vujacic (Free Agents)

[milesfides]

^That's an interesting stat; were there only 17 restricted free agents in the past 3 years? Hm, I would think there would be more. Anyways, a difference of 3 isn't "far more" is it? I think 7 and 10 are comparable, not that it's a crapshoot, I think each has its own context, as you pointed out with Outlaw and Carroll.

Also, I don't think the Cats overpaid for Carroll; the guy is an elite shooter and he plays tough defense. I don't think the Cats were forced to sign Carroll either. They traded for Jason Richardson and his big contract in June, they signed Matt Carroll, who was an unrestricted free agent, a month later in July. All clear signs that they wanted him.

Was he worth it? Recently, he joined the starting lineup to replace Gerald Wallace a couple weeks ago, and the Cats have won 5 in a row. They're 2.5 games behind Atlanta for the final playoff spot. Considering that Chicago and Atlanta have been uneven since they're respective trades, I wouldn't count out the possibility of the Cats sneaking in there. And Matt Carroll would have played an important role for them.

Also, I don't think the total number of free agents is relevant. Every year there's always a large amount of eligible free agents that don't get signed. The more relevant question is, how many of them are young and shoot over 40% from three and play defense? How many of them are young bigs who can block shots and score inside/outside? How many of them would have had the playoff experience that Turiaf and Sasha had, and will have this year? Every playoff series we win, every game in which they play well, Sasha and Turiaf's stock goes up.

But ultimately, I think the Lakers having to pay the luxury tax is the difference; it's going to play a deciding factor in negotiations. The difference between Sasha and Matt Carroll's situation is that Charlotte didn't have to pay any luxury tax. Carroll cost them exactly what he was paid, 5-something million a year. Sasha (and Turiaf) would cost the Lakers double, and that's the difference.

The luxury tax makes owners put pressure on their GMs to cut payroll, even top teams such as the Spurs who traded Udrih and Scola this past year. They did trade for Kurt Thomas which made them marginal luxury tax payers again, but that move was most likely a response to Gasol and Shaq. Either way, Thomas is in the last year of his contract so the Spurs will take the prorated hit for only this season.

The luxury tax and the upcoming extensions for Bynum and Farmar, are going to be the two particular factors for the Lakers that are going to guide the front office's personnel decisions.

As well as performances in this year's playoffs. Fair or not, this playoffs will probably determine who's on our roster in '09.

[f0gman]

There were 17 total RFAs who received offer sheets in the past 3 years. That's out of hundreds of available RFAs during that period. So as a percentage of the total RFA pool it's small. I pointed out the offer sheet statistic to show that in general, teams are reluctant to go after other teams' free agents due to the barriers put up by the offer sheet structure. Once a player signs an offer sheet, the team gets an immediate cap hit for the next week while the original team gets to mull it over. During the initial free agency period that week can be critical. It appears that a team will only go after a RFA if they have their heart set on it.

Sasha and Turiaf nearly are the cream of the crop. Sasha's chief competition will be guys like Fred Jones, Roger Mason, Flip Murray, and Yakhouba Diawara. Turiaf's group is more crowded with Walter Herrmann, Brian Skinner, Randolph Morris, and Ryan Gomes. Plus there will many more veteran free agents coming off old deals who may be had cheap such as Kurt Thomas and Eduardo Najera.

We also don't know what Sasha's and Turiaf's motivations will be, and that can't be discounted. Are they looking for a secure, long-term deal like Carroll? A chance at bigger money down the road like Outlaw? Or will they offer the Lakers a hometown discount knowing that their roles are well-defined and they'll be playing for a top contender?

[kno]

We also don't know what Sasha's and Turiaf's motivations will be, and that can't be discounted. Are they looking for a secure, long-term deal like Carroll? A chance at bigger money down the road like Outlaw? Or will they offer the Lakers a hometown discount knowing that their roles are well-defined and they'll be playing for a top contender?

Yeah, thats what I was gonna bring up before I logged off earlier today.

Their ambition is whats going to determine their place in the NBA next summer, with Sasha moreso than Ronny.

Is Sasha happy being the 1st/2nd guard off the bench? Does he want to be a spark plug getting open shots off of Bryant drives and Gasol/Bynum kickouts? Or does he want starter minutes somewhere else and have a more prominent role?

Is Ronny satisfied being a role playing garbage man off the bench? Sure, Lakers are going to give him a raise no matter what, but will he search the big money somewhere else? Will he ditch the lakers org even after all they did for him during his open-heart surgery situation?

[milesfides]

There were 17 total RFAs who received offer sheets in the past 3 years. That's out of hundreds of available RFAs during that period. So as a percentage of the total RFA pool it's small.

And what would be the percentage of unrestricted free agents signed out of the total number of unrestricted free agents?

It appears that a team will only go after a RFA if they have their heart set on it.

Or, if a team like the Lakers are paying the luxury tax. I think that'll affect how teams approach our free agents, and how we view our own.

Sasha and Turiaf nearly are the cream of the crop. Sasha's chief competition will be guys like Fred Jones, Roger Mason, Flip Murray, and Yakhouba Diawara. Turiaf's group is more crowded with Walter Herrmann, Brian Skinner, Randolph Morris, and Ryan Gomes. Plus there will many more veteran free agents coming off old deals who may be had cheap such as Kurt Thomas and Eduardo Najera.

Even considering those names, I still think both Sasha and Turiaf are among the top free agents that would command the MLE.

We also don't know what Sasha's and Turiaf's motivations will be, and that can't be discounted. Are they looking for a secure, long-term deal like Carroll? A chance at bigger money down the road like Outlaw? Or will they offer the Lakers a hometown discount knowing that their roles are well-defined and they'll be playing for a top contender?

I really don't think that's a major issue. I think both would prefer to be Lakers. I'm not Buss, I don't know what amount would be acceptable. Certainly paying 20m for those two would be unlikely. But 16m? 14m? I don't know. A small paycut for either doesn't make that much of a difference.

But it would be unlikely and unfair to them to expect they'd accept substantial paycuts. They're young players and this is the time for them to take advantage of their careers. Sasha is on a rookie contract and Turiaf has been playing for the minimum for a few years. That would be a crime to expect them to take a paycut.

I really find the idea abhorrent, that they should risk their careers and take less money at the prime of their life so that Buss could save a few million.

[milesfides]

Is Sasha happy being the 1st/2nd guard off the bench? Does he want to be a spark plug getting open shots off of Bryant drives and Gasol/Bynum kickouts? Or does he want starter minutes somewhere else and have a more prominent role?

Sasha's competitive, he wants to shine, and he thinks he deserves more minutes. Why would he accept less than that for less money? Why shouldn't Buss pay more to offer Sasha a fair deal, it's not Sasha's fault that the Lakers are paying the luxury tax on some overpriced players. But it's a business, so I can see Buss wishing Sasha luck, just like the time when the Lakers wished Fisher luck as he signed with the Warriors. Loyalty? Goes both ways.

Is Ronny satisfied being a role playing garbage man off the bench? Sure, Lakers are going to give him a raise no matter what, but will he search the big money somewhere else? Will he ditch the lakers org even after all they did for him during his open-heart surgery situation?

In contrast with Sasha, I can see Turiaf accepting much less than market value. He's a humble and gracious guy. But I think that would suck. The Lakers did pay for his open-heart surgery. But they don't own him for life. It's not a deal with the devil. Since his rookie contract was voided, Turiaf has been playing for the minimum. I don't think Turiaf owes the Lakers a damn thing, and if he gets the chance to shine, make a lot of money, and be successful for the rest of his life, I hope he does that.

[f0gman]

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And what would be the percentage of unrestricted free agents signed out of the total number of unrestricted free agents?

No idea. But the dynamics of negotiating with UFAs are much different, so it's not terribly relevant. BTW I got the offer sheet statistic by searching the Pro Basketball Transactions Database.

I really don't think that's a major issue. I think both would prefer to be Lakers. I'm not Buss, I don't know what amount would be acceptable. Certainly paying 20m for those two would be unlikely. But 16m? 14m? I don't know. A small paycut for either doesn't make that much of a difference.

But it would be unlikely and unfair to them to expect they'd accept substantial paycuts. They're young players and this is the time for them to take advantage of their careers. Sasha is on a rookie contract and Turiaf has been playing for the minimum for a few years. That would be a crime to expect them to take a paycut.

I really find the idea abhorrent, that they should risk their careers and take less money at the prime of their life so that Buss could save a few million.

What do you consider a paycut? A lesser figure than some pie-in-the-sky number the player's agent is trying to reach? More realistic market value? The term "hometown discount" isn't around because it isn't practiced. The Spurs are a great example of this.

Only a month ago I figured Mitch would float the qualifying offer to Sasha and then figure out what the market would bear. With Sasha continuing to shoot well Mitch (with Buss's blessing) may just tender an offer and keep him off the market altogether.

I think that, for the next couple of seasons, we're past the point of no return re: luxury tax. Couple the actual luxury tax with the fact that a taxpaying team won't get the payment due to teams that don't breach the tax limit and the true impact on revenue may be $15-18 million next year. Is there a difference between a $15 million or $18 million hit on revenue? Hard to say.

[Joe Kleazy]

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Yeah, thats what I was gonna bring up before I logged off earlier today.

Their ambition is whats going to determine their place in the NBA next summer, with Sasha moreso than Ronny.

Is Sasha happy being the 1st/2nd guard off the bench? Does he want to be a spark plug getting open shots off of Bryant drives and Gasol/Bynum kickouts? Or does he want starter minutes somewhere else and have a more prominent role?

Is Ronny satisfied being a role playing garbage man off the bench? Sure, Lakers are going to give him a raise no matter what, but will he search the big money somewhere else? Will he ditch the lakers org even after all they did for him during his open-heart surgery situation?

I think that the bigger question are whether or not we will be having diss threads about these guys IF they do decide to better themselves. Due to the financial situation it is obvious that our roster will looks different next season and I would not fault them if they decided to take the money even if I would like them to stay.

Ronny has been though alot alreadey health wise and a injury can happen at any moment. These guys have to do whats best for them and their families.

Hopefully winning a championship makes their decisions easier either way and we dont want another luke/vlad contract situation for these guys. Between the two I would rather have ronny stay due to it being harder to find what he brings. Finding a shooter would be easy and alot cheaper especially if we can get luke and vlad back on track.

Either way lets keep it classy IF they do leave since we know that it will be for financial reasons on both the team and players sides.