Perspective on Eras: Wilt vs Kareem vs Hakeem vs Shaq

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Perspective on Eras: Wilt vs Kareem vs Hakeem vs Shaq 

Post#1 » by wigglestrue » Thu Mar 13, 2008 2:13 pm

An aging Wilt played against a peak Kareem, and held his own.
An aging Kareem played against a peak Hakeem, and held his own.
An aging Hakeem played against a young Shaq, and held his own.
An aging Shaq plays against every player today, and holds his own.

More food for thought, the 5 highest single season FG% in NBA history:

1. Wilt Chamberlain - .727, 1972-73
2. Wilt Chamberlain - .683, 1966-67
3. Artis Gilmore - .670, 1980-81
4. Artis Gilmore - .652, 1981-82
5. Wilt Chamberlain - .649, 1971-72


Note #1 and #5, those were Wilt's last two seasons. He was 35 and 36 years old, respectively. In each season, he played all 82 games. He averaged 42.3 and 43.2 minutes per game, respectively -- 19.2 and 18.6 rebounds, 4.0 and 4.5 assists. Those were his final two seasons. Christ.
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Post#2 » by Patterns » Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:48 pm

Wilt's averages are almost meaningless. Yes, they are super impressive but they are so inflated.
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Post#3 » by wigglestrue » Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:50 pm

Patterns wrote:Wilt's averages are almost meaningless. Yes, they are super impressive but they are so inflated.


Great contribution, great contribution...

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Post#4 » by hermes » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:08 pm

wilt was good
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Post#5 » by tsherkin » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:21 pm

Yeah, Patterns, that was bunk.

You're talking about a guy who set the single-season FG% record in his last year in the league a few years after a major knee injury and he was still able to play over 40 mpg and play in all 82 games and a host of playoff games (the Lakers played 17 postseason games and made the Finals that year).

Actually yeah, in the wake of the knee injury he suffered in the 69-70, think about how much it means that he was able to still play.

He played in 12 games that regular season, then 18 games in the postseason. He played in all 82 games in each of the three years following (his last years in the league), averaging 44.3, 42.3 and 43.2 minutes per game.

He also played 12, 15 and 17 postseason games those years, averaging 46.2, 46.9 and 47.1 mpg.

If you think that's the result of inflation, you're completely without ability to have involvement in the conversation on any meaningful level. If you're being sarcastic, it's in poor taste and ill-received.

The point is that the greats from earlier eras did just fine against their successors even when they were older and at the end of their careers.

Wilt's achievements in the waning years of his career are nothing shy of astonishing and many of them are completely unaffected by pace and era idiosyncrasies.
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Post#6 » by KNICKS1970 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:21 pm

Interesting thread, although I disagree that Kareem played against a peak Hakeem. Olajuwon's peak was the 1993-1995 seasons.

I think one reason why Wilt's shooting % actually improved was because he was no longer the #1 option on his team. Still, his ability to contribute defensively, rebound, and distribute the ball made him a top player even at an advanced age, especially for a center.
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Post#7 » by tsherkin » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:26 pm

KNICKS1970 wrote:Interesting thread, although I disagree that Kareem played against a peak Hakeem. Olajuwon's peak was the 1993-1995 seasons.


True.

I think one reason why Wilt's shooting % actually improved was because he was no longer the #1 option on his team. Still, his ability to contribute defensively, rebound, and distribute the ball made him a top player even at an advanced age, especially for a center.


True but irrelevant. You could make a similar comment about his shot attempts falling off rather noticeably but it still wouldn't change the fact that he shot almost 73% from the floor one year and that no one before or since has ever achieved that even in similar situations.

Furthermore, it's worth noting that while his shot attempts went down, you saw him passing the ball a lot more and it was generally clear that while he wasn't shooting as much, he was still involved in the offense quite a bit. He wasn't a first option once he became a Laker, sure, but he was still a critical component of the offense and so dangerous even as a third option that he continued to draw multiple coverage.
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Post#8 » by ponder276 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:29 pm

One of Wilt's signature shots was to simply reach over shorter players and kinda flick the ball into the basket, layup-style. That would get blocked every single time today. He was shut down pretty effectively whenever he played Bill Russel.
Had Wilt been born 40 years later, I'm sure he would still have been a great center, but if you think he would have put up a peak season of anywhere close to 50/25 in the modern game, you're deluding yourself. He'd probably put up Hakeem-like numbers though.
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Post#9 » by Point forward » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:36 pm

ponder276 wrote:One of Wilt's signature shots was to simply reach over shorter players and kinda flick the ball into the basket, layup-style. That would get blocked every single time today. He was shut down pretty effectively whenever he played Bill Russel.
Had Wilt been born 40 years later, I'm sure he would still have been a great center, but if you think he would have put up a peak season of anywhere close to 50/25 in the modern game, you're deluding yourself. He'd probably put up Hakeem-like numbers though.


I agree about Wilt's favourite finger roll shot, but I am not sure whether he would get blocked. Wilt faced HOF guys like Russell, Embry, Thurmond, Bellamy, Reed and Lovellette and still dropped 40+ on them on .500+ shooting. Not to mention that the 3pt line would extremely open up the floor for Wilt because he was double- and triple-teamed all his life.
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Post#10 » by wigglestrue » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:39 pm

ponder276 wrote:One of Wilt's signature shots was to simply reach over shorter players and kinda flick the ball into the basket, layup-style. That would get blocked every single time today. He was shut down pretty effectively whenever he played Bill Russel.
Had Wilt been born 40 years later, I'm sure he would still have been a great center, but if you think he would have put up a peak season of anywhere close to 50/25 in the modern game, you're deluding yourself. He'd probably put up Hakeem-like numbers though.


Wrong on several accounts, and debating something that wasn't even brought up. Why don't people read before they post, and respond to the points actually raised, instead of just seeing a name and shadowboxing with whatever misinformed generalized opinions they can vomit up.
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Post#11 » by Point forward » Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:50 pm

On topic: 1970s-and-later Wilt's high FG% and durability numbers are also Bill Sharman's work. Lakers coach Sharman put the offensive load on West and Goodrich: Wilt was told to focus on passing, and to score mostly on "sure points", i.e. dunks and point blank layups. Also, Sharman's Lakers were a fastbreak team, and Sharman told Wilt to throw the outlet pass and NOT to run (Goodrich, West and McMillian were enough), and let the others do the job. That way, he could preserve his energy. That Wilt stayed on the floor for over 40 min was normal anyway in his career.
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Post#12 » by TheSheriff » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:02 pm

Well an aging Ed Macauley played against Russell and held his own.
Russell played against Wilt and held his own.
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Post#13 » by wigglestrue » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:09 pm

Point forward wrote:On topic: 1970s-and-later Wilt's high FG% and durability numbers are also Bill Sharman's work. Lakers coach Sharman put the offensive load on West and Goodrich: Wilt was told to focus on passing, and to score mostly on "sure points", i.e. dunks and point blank layups. Also, Sharman's Lakers were a fastbreak team, and Sharman told Wilt to throw the outlet pass and NOT to run (Goodrich, West and McMillian were enough), and let the others do the job. That way, he could preserve his energy. That Wilt stayed on the floor for over 40 min was normal anyway in his career.


Interesting. I wonder if that would work for some big men today. Or was it just something Wilt was cut out to do. Anyway, just for context, Wilt was averaging about the same minutes, more rebounds, and about the same assists as Kareem, not just any Kareem but the 1973 Kareem, who "only" shot in the high 50's but that was on 25 or so shots. The year after Wilt retired they started counting blocks and steals, which is a minor tragedy in stats history because with a single season's worth we would have had some evidence of the kind of defender Wilt was, although we still ought to have a good idea of it, which I would figure to be around Kareem's averages, especially if Wilt was focused on defense. I would think/hope there'd be a way to get a decent estimate of his (and Russell's) steals and blocks, if there's an archive somewhere with radio/television broadcasts for most/all of a pre-'74 (or pre-'70) season, or something.
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Post#14 » by wigglestrue » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:13 pm

TheSheriff wrote:Well an aging Ed Macauley played against Russell and held his own.
Russell played against Wilt and held his own.


Did he though? Macauley was and is probably the worst rebounding center in NBA history, per 48 minutes. Are you talking about the Hawks' championship? Pettit, baby. Hagan.
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Post#15 » by tsherkin » Thu Mar 13, 2008 5:25 pm

ponder276 wrote:One of Wilt's signature shots was to simply reach over shorter players and kinda flick the ball into the basket, layup-style. That would get blocked every single time today. He was shut down pretty effectively whenever he played Bill Russel.


"Shut down," eh?

Don't like facts much, do you? He averaged 28.7 ppg and 28.7 rpg (several boards per game above his career average and above his single-season best as well) against Russell in 143 games. He put 22 ppg, 32 rpg, and 10 apg on Russ in the '67 ECFs. He put 62 on Russell once and scored 50+ 6 other times against Russell and his Celtics. During the season in which he averaged 50+ ppg, he scored 50+ on Russell 4 times.

"Shut down" is not an accurate phrase, not even if you stretch it.

Wilt also had a 55-rebound game on Russell.

Incidentally, if you're looking for the breakdown:

Wilt averaged 30.0 PPG and 28.2 RPG in 94 regular season matchups against Russell (who posted 14.2 PPG and 22.9 RPG).

In 49 postseason matchups, Wilt managed 25.7 PPG and 28.0 RPG versus Russell's 14.9 PPG and 24.7 RPG.

So again, Wilt noticeably out-rebounded the second-best rebounder in NBA history, still scored a lot (remember, as a Sixer and a Laker, he shot a lot less than he did as a Warrior earlier in his career, accounting for a lot of the dip in scoring average).

But thanks for playing. ;)

You're talking about a man about whom Russell once said:

"After I played him for the first time," Russell says, "I said, 'Let's see. He's four or five inches taller. He's 40 or 50 pounds heavier. His vertical leap is at least as good as mine. He can get up and down the floor as well as I can. And he's smart. The real problem with all this is that I have to show up!"


He said "The big fella was great, real great," he observed. "That was the best game he ever played against me" after Wilt put 30 points and 39 b boards on the Celtics in Game 2 of their series in '65.

You're also ignoring the fact that Wilt out-muscled a lot of very strong, very big guys and that he had a mid-range jumper out to around 15 feet.

You're ignoring that he could, and did, drop-step, spin and perform a variety of hook shots and other elementary post moves.

And you're ignoring that with a much less varied offense, Dwight Howard scores over 20 ppg (21.8 ppg at the moment) on extremely high efficiency.

Yes, Wilt finger-rolled a lot but he'd get FOULED a lot more often than he'd get blocked. If you ever watched him perform the finger roll, it was usually preceded by a shake of some kind, or used when he'd established such deep post position that he could have bounced it off his crotch and the defender still couldn't have done much about it, regardless of his size.


Had Wilt been born 40 years later, I'm sure he would still have been a great center, but if you think he would have put up a peak season of anywhere close to 50/25 in the modern game, you're deluding yourself. He'd probably put up Hakeem-like numbers though.


Hakeem-like numbers?

Look, I'll give you that Wilt was never going to average 50 ppg in the modern era; he had to shoot a DAMNED lot to do that even in his own era. And it's not likely that he would have a career average over 20 rpg in the modern era on account of the pace.

But you're talking about a guy who played 45.8 mpg over 14 seasons (1,045 games) in the regular season and 47.2 mpg in 160 postseason games. He had the endurance to stay out on the court and he was a dominant rebounder. Even if you assume that his rebound rates as an older guy on the Lakers would hold, he'd be grabbing about 20% of his team's rebounds while he was on the floor.

The four best rebounders in the league by that same measure this season are Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, Tyson Chandler and Chris Kaman. They are posting rebound rates of 21.7, 21.0, 20.6 and 19.9, playing 38.5, 35.4, 34.8 and 38.0 minutes per game.

Let's take Kaman's rebound rate and look at his rebounds-per-minute value; he's getting about .345 rebounds per minute. Now, imagine if instead of 38.0 minutes per game, he were playing 45.8 minutes per game.

That projects to roughly 15.8 rpg, still enough to lead the league using a rebound rate from a post-knee injury Wilt in his mid-30s. I think it's safe to say that he'd be pretty well the most dominant rebounder in the league.

And we've already discussed how you've dramatically undervalued his offensive value and otherwise missed or incorrectly presented facts about Wilt.

Hakeem-like numbers? Olajuwon's prime was about 27/12. But he was also considerably smaller than Wilt, who'd more likely spend most of his career in the 54-58% range on his FG% and who drew fouls at about +0.14 FTA/FGA.

So basically, if you gave each of them 20 FGA, Hakeem was apt to get you about 7.2 FTA/g versus Wilt's 10. Wilt would likely score about 5.4 ppg off of free throws on average (career 54% FT) versus Olajuwon's 5.13. Same net result except that Wilt puts more pressure on the offense.

I could see the scoring being similar but this is presuming the lower FG% theory holds; in Wilt's ACTUAL career, he doesn't have a sample size large enough for seasons where he shot 18-20 FGA/g to really look at it.

What you DO see, however, is that when he shot under 20 FGA/g, he generally shot ridiculously well from the field. Let's look at 13-17 FGA/g.

In '67, when he won his first title, he shot 14.2 FGA/g and shot 68.3% from the field, drawing 10.8 FTA/g and scoring 24.1 ppg, about what Olajuwon scored during the lead-up to his 4-year run in the 90s. During that season, Wilt averaged 7.8 apg.

I think people would be pretty interested in a 24/8 guy, let alone a guy who'd be near to 16 rpg and who'd probably be the best defender in the league.

I'll be back at this later... you need to learn about Wilt Chamberlain before you spout off like that.
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Post#16 » by TrueLAfan » Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:49 pm

First--You can use rebound rate and point/pace adjustments to estimate what Wilt's first seasons would look like in the modern game. Essentially, he'd average 36 and 19 for seven years.

wigglestrue wrote:More food for thought, the 5 highest single season FG% in NBA history:

1. Wilt Chamberlain - .727, 1972-73
2. Wilt Chamberlain - .683, 1966-67
3. Artis Gilmore - .670, 1980-81
4. Artis Gilmore - .652, 1981-82
5. Wilt Chamberlain - .649, 1971-72


Note #1 and #5, those were Wilt's last two seasons. He was 35 and 36 years old, respectively. In each season, he played all 82 games. He averaged 42.3 and 43.2 minutes per game, respectively -- 19.2 and 18.6 rebounds, 4.0 and 4.5 assists. Those were his final two seasons. Christ.


I always say the same thing about those last couple of seasons for Wilt. Take Mutombo at his absolute best. Make him faster and stronger. Have him get three times as many assists. Have him foul 40% less. Make him more durable. Increase his shooting by 35%, from about .525 to about .700. Make him an even better rebounder. Make him a smarter player. How valuable would Mutombo be with all of those improvements? That's Wilt in his final two years...in his "decline" period.
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Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:55 pm

Oh, and as long as we are ripping ridiculous statements . . . where did you get the idea that Ed MacCauley held his own against Russell? Russell would typically get twice as many rebounds a game and the Celtics would win every essential game/series. Russell and Chamberlain basically dominated the NBA like no one before or since despite the many HOF centers created as every team tried to groom a center to compete with them. Jordan never dominated any category like they dominated rebounding (even setting aside Wilt's scoring); nor has anyone else since.

Career Rebound/game leaders (don't have the energy to adjust for pace which lessens but doesn't eliminate this domination -- I don't adjust for minutes, ie reb rate, less minutes may not scale up)

Wilt Chamberlain 22.89
Bill Russell 22.45

Bob Pettit 16.22
everyone else (<16)
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Post#18 » by NetsForce » Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:04 pm

TrueLAfan wrote:First--You can use rebound rate and point/pace adjustments to estimate what Wilt's first seasons would look like in the modern game. Essentially, he'd average 36 and 19 for seven years.

-= original quote snipped =-



I always say the same thing about those last couple of seasons for Wilt. Take Mutombo at his absolute best. Make him faster and stronger. Have him get three times as many assists. Have him foul 40% less. Make him more durable. Increase his shooting by 35%, from about .525 to about .700. Make him an even better rebounder. Make him a smarter player. How valuable would Mutombo be with all of those improvements? That's Wilt in his final two years...in his "decline" period.


That's actually what I was hoping someone would post 36 and 19 wow... However, would it be safe to say that those numbers would actually be lower because of the different set of rules and type of players who play the game today?
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Post#19 » by TrueLAfan » Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:40 pm

NetsForce wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



That's actually what I was hoping someone would post 36 and 19 wow... However, would it be safe to say that those numbers would actually be lower because of the different set of rules and type of players who play the game today?


More likely the other way around; Wilt's numbers would probably be better. The overall quality of players a the C position was as good in mid to late 1960s as it ever was; possibly the best of all time. Certainly better than it has been in the last 7 to 10 years. It doesn't seem like much when you say Zelmo Beaty is the fifth best C in the league. But Beaty is a borderline HOF player; a brutally effective post player. He was at or near the middle of Cs in the mid 60s. Who's the 13th or 14th best starter today? It ain't Zelmo Beaty. Go below Wilt and Russell, and you've got guys like Beaty, Walt Bellamy, Johnny Kerr, and Nate Thurmond. That's in an 8-9 team league. By the time the league started expanding at the end of the 60s, players like Reed, Unseld, Hayes, and Kareem were at the 5. Look at the top 10 starting Cs in Wilt's final NBA season

Kareem
Wilt
Cowens
Lanier
Thurmond
Unseld
Bellamy
Smith
Walk
Lacey

That's in a 17 team league. The #8 guy was the average starter...#9 and #10 were below average. Here's their output adjusted to modern numbers:

Elmore Smith--7'1", 260. 16.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.5 apg
Neal Walk--6'10", 235. 18.5 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.5 apg
Sam Lacey--6'11", 250. 12.4 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.4 apg

Those are modern nuvmers. And those weren't one-hit wonder guys, or players with limited talent. Neal Walk was an overall #2 pick that combined a great work ethic with a major alternative/new age mindset...little injuries and a desire to see the world ended his NBA career. But he was good. Elmore Smith was better than that. he was a great shot blocker and rebounder; averaged a double-double for his career. Sam Lacey was one of the best passing Cs of all time. Not a great man defender, but a very good rebounder and help defender...he has 7 100-100 steal/block seasons and had a career of well over 1000 games. Those were the average and below average starters in Wilt's final year. Who are the 16th through 18th best starters today?

And the rule changes now spread the court more (we have the three) and make the game more of a push and shove rather than physically violent game. It would work to the advantage of a big, strong guy that passed well and was rarely in foul trouble.
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Post#20 » by ponder276 » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:27 am

wigglestrue wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Wrong on several accounts, and debating something that wasn't even brought up. Why don't people read before they post, and respond to the points actually raised, instead of just seeing a name and shadowboxing with whatever misinformed generalized opinions they can vomit up.

How was I off-topic? You were saying that by making some vague comparisons between a chain of players, we can say that the various eras are comparable, and thus we can compare Wilt to modern players. I was saying that by looking at video, there is nothing about Wilt's game that suggests, in my opinion, that he would be super-dominant in today's era.
Just look at video of Wilt playing - can you honestly say that anything he does looks more impressive than what guys like Hakeem or David Robinson did? His offensive game looks less polished (I don't think his roll shot would work in the modern era, his hook shot looks quite strange, and his free throw shooting is just ugly), and he does not seem quicker than Hakeem or more built/a better athlete than David Robinson.

When you look at the other players on the court, they're almost all terrible by todays standards. A lot of the guards don't even seem to have a left hand. I think you're trying to say that the eras were similar in terms of competition, but I don't buy that at all. As an example, take a look at this video of the 67 ECF between the Cs and 6ers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVtr2t7SvFE
These were two of the top teams in the league, and they don't even appear to be playing at a high-school level (by todays standards).

NOTE: I'm not saying Wilt wasn't a great player - he was clearly amazing. I'm just saying I see nothing to suggest that Wilt was any better than the best Cs of modern times (Robinson, Hakeem, Shaq, etc.), and in modern times I can't see him putting up better numbers than those players did. Your "all eras of basketball are comparable" logic implies that Wilt could dominate modern players in the same way he dominated in the 60s.



Re: tsherkin, I didn't realize Wilt put up such good numbers against Russell. I figured he was contained by Russell because Wilt was the heart of the Sixers, and the Sixers almost always got smacked down by the Celtics, but clearly I was wrong.

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