Wolves @ Portland, Saturday, 9:00 PM, No Local TV

[casey]

but my point is that a lot of cap space will be there whether we sign (alias) Smith and Gomes.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

[deeney0]

I was at the game and it seemed like Brewer was dropping everything. Is this not a usual game for him? Cuz if I remember correctly, there is usually a fair amount of bashing on him in your game threads...

In the game threads? No way. There is bashing of him just about everywhere else, but on this board most of us are aware that FG% is not the only way to assess a player's performance.

[theGreatRC]

I was at the game and it seemed like Brewer was dropping everything. Is this not a usual game for him? Cuz if I remember correctly, there is usually a fair amount of bashing on him in your game threads...

Yes, he takes bad shots, but he has been improving in that area, especially his form. 6-11 is good for the Brew, shooting 50%+ is always good from him.

[deeney0]

Takes bad shots? I think he takes relatively good shots, he just isn't hitting them.

[big3_8_19_21]

some times he takes out of control lay-ups, he needs to work on that

[theGreatRC]

Takes bad shots? I think he takes relatively good shots, he just isn't hitting them.

Sometimes, he hesitates, resulting in a bad shot.

[shrink]

The other point that most fans from other teams are unaware of is that even if we go right up to the lux, and spend $13 mil on new contracts, we still have cap money coming in the summer of 2009. Walker ($9 mil) and Buckner ($4 mil) are both expiring contracts, and Juwon Howard ($5) and Troy Hudson ($5) both come off the books, for a total of $23 mil. Some of that money (let's say "$6") would be required for signing our three first rounders next season, and we might extend McCants, but my point is that a lot of cap space will be there whether we sign (alias) Smith and Gomes.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Why would you say that? Those four contracts are guaranteed, Howard and Hudson definitely expire next summer, and I see no way that the options on either Walker or Buckner are picked up. The $23 mil wil certainly be going out the door. I'm also pretty confident Glen Taylor won't be going over the lux this Summer. The Wolves may spend the cap space next Summer, or trade it away, but regardless, I don't think any plausible signings of Smith or Gomes are going to affect the amount.

[deeney0]

How will it not affect it? Unless they sign multi year contracts (plausible perhaps for Bassy, not so much for Smith or Gomes), that's less money to work with in 09. The questions are 1) Is there still enough left to sign a top FA in 09 and 2) Are Smith, Bassy, and/or Gomes worth it?

[shrink]

How will it not affect it? Unless they sign multi year contracts (plausible perhaps for Bassy, not so much for Smith or Gomes), that's less money to work with in 09. The questions are 1) Is there still enough left to sign a top FA in 09 and 2) Are Smith, Bassy, and/or Gomes worth it?

Let's say they use the full $15 mil for those guys contracts, going completely up to the lux. The max increase an NBA contract can get in one year is 10%, so their contracts would be a net total of $16.5, chopping at most $1.5 mil out of the $23.

Smith, Gomes, and Telfair's signing would not be the factor that cuts into that $23 (although not signing them could add to it).

We'll still have a big chunk to play with, whether we use it to sign a FA, or trade the expirings away.

[deeney0]

You're not thinking about it the right way. Look at how far under the Tax the Wolves will be, not how much salary is coming off the books.

Say the Wolves get the top pick this year, sign both 2nds this year and sign all three picks next year (for the sake of this, we'll say that the picks are #8, #12, and #28 ). That's $40.7 mil committed to 2009. Say the cap is going to be around $56 mil, signing Telfair, Gomes, and Smith to MLE-sized deals in 2008 eats up ALL of the 2009 cap space.

[shrink]

You're not thinking about it the right way. Look at how far under the Tax the Wolves will be, not how much salary is coming off the books.

Say the Wolves get the top pick this year, sign both 2nds this year and sign all three picks next year (for the sake of this, we'll say that the picks are #8, #12, and #28 ). That's $40.7 mil committed to 2009. Say the cap is going to be around $56 mil, signing Telfair, Gomes, and Smith to MLE-sized deals in 2008 eats up ALL of the 2009 cap space.

Whatever we pay our pick and both 2nds this year, plus Gomes, Telfair, Craig Smith or a free agent, that total is not going to be more than $15 mil, which would take us to the lux. Anyone in that package that gets extended for 2009 .. pick or player .. for more than one year will have salary increases not to exceed 10%, according to the CBA.

The additional money for 2009 will come the three picks will be about $6 mil, we'll still be a long way under the lux. The point that the original poster was trying to make was that the signing Gomes and Craig Smith would eat up our cap space in Summer of 2009. They will not. If it goes out, it will be from trading expirings, or a FA grab.

Whoever we add this year will only cost 10% more for 2009-10. If you're saying that we might not bring them back to have even more room, and perhaps operate at $60 mil this next season, I suppose its possible, but I personally find it unlikely. It seems these days that more of the big moves are done these days through sign-and-trades (since players want to maintain those salaries) than through free agency. I would guess that Taylor is looking a lot more closely at the lux cap than the salary cap.

[deeney0]

Yes it will. There's a difference between being under the lux and being under the cap. To sign a big name FA to a max deal (or receive one in a S&T for nothing like Lewis or in a trade for nothing like Richardson) we have to have enough space below the CAP, not just lux.

Right now, I've got the Wolves with $51.6 mil committed in 2008 and $28.4 mil committed in 2009, without any resigning or picks. If you $15 mil in 2008 like you said, that turns into $16.5 mil to 2009, ALL of which comes out of space they would be under the $56ish mil cap. without signing anyone, they'd be $27.6 mil under the cap. With $16.5 mil from Telfair/Gomes/Smith/Picks, they'd be $11.1 mil under. Figure in 3 firsts that year, and they've already lost the ability to sign a FA to a max deal.

[kandiking]

why would we give a max contract in 2009?

[casey]

Dug this up from a post of mine a while ago:

Players
Jefferson: $11.65Mil
McCants: $7.86Mil (cap hit)
Jaric: $7.1Mil
Foye: $3.58Mil
Brewer: $2.92Mil
Madsen: $2.84Mil
Buckner: $1.06Mil (guaranteed)
Total: $37.21Mil

Picks (estimated position)
2008 1st: $3.13Mil (4th pick)
2008 2nd (mia): $0.73Mil
2009 1st: $2.72Mil (5th pick)
2009 1st (mia): $1.40Mil (15th pick)
2009 1st (bos): $0.90Mil (25th pick)
2009 2nd: $0.46Mil
Total: $9.34Mil

$46.55Mil - 12 players

Now if they sign Smith and Gomes for like $8Mil combined next year, then it would add another $8.8Mil for the 2009 payroll. That puts it at $55Mil, which would leave us without any cap room. So it certainly will have an effect on what we do in free agency.

[deeney0]

why would we give a max contract in 2009?

The ability to give a max contract is a good measuring stick, doesn't mean they would actually do it - but there are going to be a ton of marquee FA's that summer. Who knows, maybe one of them likes ice fishing.

[shrink]

Dug this up from a post of mine a while ago:

Players
Jefferson: $11.65Mil
McCants: $7.86Mil (cap hit)
Jaric: $7.1Mil
Foye: $3.58Mil
Brewer: $2.92Mil
Madsen: $2.84Mil
Buckner: $1.06Mil (guaranteed)
Total: $37.21Mil

Picks (estimated position)
2008 1st: $3.13Mil (4th pick)
2008 2nd (mia): $0.73Mil
2009 1st: $2.72Mil (5th pick)
2009 1st (mia): $1.40Mil (15th pick)
2009 1st (bos): $0.90Mil (25th pick)
2009 2nd: $0.46Mil
Total: $9.34Mil

$46.55Mil - 12 players

Now if they sign Smith and Gomes for like $8Mil combined next year, then it would add another $8.8Mil for the 2009 payroll. That puts it at $55Mil, which would leave us without any cap room. So it certainly will have an effect on what we do in free agency.

Yeah - we'd sign and trade, like 90% of the big name players are moved.

To Glen Taylor, the lux is the number that has the most importance, not the salary cap.

[shrink]

One question -- does Buckner's million dollar buy out really count against the cap/lux?

I know we have to pay him to move the contract, but I haven't been factoring that in as 2009 money.

[casey]

-= original quote snipped =-



Yeah - we'd sign and trade, like 90% of the big name players are moved.

To Glen Taylor, the lux is the number that has the most importance, not the salary cap.

Sign and trade for what though? What would we be giving up?

One question -- does Buckner's million dollar buy out really count against the cap/lux?

I know we have to pay him to move the contract, but I haven't been factoring that in as 2009 money.

Yep, it does.