IF Arenas Goes to the Clippers...

[ecuhus1981]

... how would you prefer to receive value in return? Assuming Thornton is unavailable, Kaman, Maggette and the '08 LAC 1st (#6) may all be dangled your way. Finding salary to accomodate Gil's extension would be a hurdle, however, as at least one of Tim Thomas or Cuttino Mobley would need to be included, if not both.

I figure a 3rd team may need to be installed into this deal. Haywood and Blatche are great fits for your offense at C for now, so bringing in Kaman doesn't seem the best move. And while Maggette is quite a talent, his strengths seem to be redundant to what Tough Juice already brings. Plus, he's not a perimeter defender like Stevenson, so you would lose some effectiveness there.

[johnbragg]

Then Arenas can take the MLE and like it.

[doclinkin]

Monkeys will fly out my butt.

IBTL.

[LyricalRico]

If Maggette and Brand both opt out, the Clippers would have only about $30M in committed salary. Brand and Arenas could both sign new contracts starting at $12-13M and they'd be set.

[Soup's Uncle]

Screw the Clippers and trading Arenas....

IBTL.

[Spence]

The Clips have nothing we need, apart from Elton Brand and he's hurt. Haywood > Kaman and if you believe in Caron and Nick Young, Maggette, while an excellent player, would be superfluous. What the Bullets would need after trading Arenas is a young point guard and I don't think the Clips have got one ever since Shaun Livingston became the unluckiest person in North America. And with Gil on that team, the Clips would probably improve a lot so their 1st round pick wouldn't be worth much.

Count me out.

[yungal07]

Can we trade Jamison for Brand?

[ecuhus1981]

Can we trade Jamison for Brand?

Unfortunately no. Apparently, Sterling is willing to do whatever it takes to unite Brand and Arenas in LA, so Elton can't be involved.

Haywood > Kaman...

Now hold on just a minute. I agree that neither Corey nor Chris are great fits with your core and style of play, but Kaman is WAAAAAAAAY better than Haywood, and younger.

Try not to look at what LAC has to offer as a pure "this-for-that" deal. Rather, envision what other teams would pay for Maggette and/or Kaman. Liek I said, a 3-way deal is the most likely solution; if that were to occur, what types of players would you target? A gunner like Richard Hamilton? A more uptempo C like Emeka? A cerebral floor general like Calderon???

Obviously, none of these players equals Arenas, but they would be a part of the incoming value retur nfor the Wizards. Also, don't underestimate the 6th pick in this year's draft that the Clippers are also offering, over and above the players mentioned. If Mayo is available there (probable), he should fill in Arenas' shoes quite nicely...



(I'm not a Clippers fan, btw. This proposal idea can't be THAT far off, could it? IBTL-worthy??? I guess I'll find out when I submit this post...)

[nate33]

If Maggette and Brand both opt out, the Clippers would have only about $30M in committed salary. Brand and Arenas could both sign new contracts starting at $12-13M and they'd be set.

I doubt Brand would willingly walk away from a guaranteed $16.4M next season in order to resign at $12-13M. If he does opt out, Philly would probably give him a call and offer at least $12.5M, maybe a bit more if they trade away their draft pick.

[ecuhus1981]

And with Gil on that team, the Clips would probably improve a lot so their 1st round pick wouldn't be worth much.

Remember, this is an off-season deal. The trade deadline is over, and the pick involved is this year's 1st. So, Arenas' arrival couldn't affect the outcome of the pick one way or the other, since the draft would have already taken place before the deal is executed. Capisce?

BTW, giggity.

[nate33]

Now hold on just a minute. I agree that neither Corey nor Chris are great fits with your core and style of play, but Kaman is WAAAAAAAAY better than Haywood, and younger.

While I have to admit I'm a bit surprised that Spence made the argument, I think it's a fair one.

Haywood and Kaman are comparable. Kaman probably has a bit more value league wide because of his age and the fact that he might not have peaked yet; but it's definitely not a slam dunk. Kaman is the better offensive player (albiet more inefficient), while Haywood is the better defender.

The Wizards offense is just fine, it's defense that is our weak point. Haywood is a crucial component of this team. I think the Wizards are better off with Haywood.

[nate33]

-= original quote snipped =-



Remember, this is an off-season deal. The trade deadline is over, and the pick involved is this year's 1st. So, Arenas' arrival couldn't affect the outcome of the pick one way or the other, since the draft would have already taken place before the deal is executed. Capisce?

BTW, giggity.

That's the interesting part of the situation. The Clippers' decision on their draft pick is a key factor in thier leverage.

If the Clippers retain Brand and their draft pick, they'll only have about $7.5M in cap space to throw at Arenas. That's simply not enough to entice Arenas when the Wizards are sure to offer at least $12M and probably more. Without a credible threat to sign Arenas outright, the Clippers have no leverage in a sign-and-trade negotiation. They can't offer anything that the Wizards really want.

But if the Clippers trade away their pick, they can scrape together about $10M in cap space. While that's not enough to meet Arenas' demands, it's enough to make Ernie Grunfeld sweat a bit. If Arenas really wanted to play in LA, he could credibly argue that he'd take lesser salary to go there with nothing in return. At that point, Ernie might be willing to talk about a sign-and-trade in which the Wizards get the short end of a lopsided deal under the premise that something in return is better than nothing.

But the Clippers have to trade away their pick in order to put themselves into that cap situation. That's a pretty big gamble.

[LyricalRico]

I doubt Brand would willingly walk away from a guaranteed $16.4M next season in order to resign at $12-13M. If he does opt out, Philly would probably give him a call and offer at least $12.5M, maybe a bit more if they trade away their draft pick.

I'm not so sure about that. Brand is closing in on 30, has only made the playoffs once, and has already made close to $100M. The West isn't getting any easier and his team stinks. Sacrificing a few mil to get a guy who, in your own words, is a "first option superstar" wouldn't be appealing to him?

Kaman/???
Brand/Fazekas
Thomas/Thornton
Mobley/E.Gordon(#6)
Arenas/Knight

Brand would turn that down in favor of going back the lottery for the forseeable future just to make a couple mil more? I think he'd seriously consider it.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Quick question mods. Incase Arenas leaves, is it possible my username could be switched to Nick1Young?

[miller31time]

Quick question mods. Incase Arenas leaves, is it possible my username could be switched to Nick1Young?

Yup. You have to be here for more than a year, and I believe there's a maximum amount of times one can change their user name. You qualify in both categories.

[BigA]

-= original quote snipped =-



Yup. You have to be here for more than a year, and I believe there's a maximum amount of times one can change their user name. You qualify in both categories.

Mmmm. Maybe I can put a hold on Vlad88Veremeenko?

[nate33]

I'm not so sure about that. Brand is closing in on 30, has only made the playoffs once, and has already made close to $100M. The West isn't getting any easier and his team stinks. Sacrificing a few mil to get a guy who, in your own words, is a "first option superstar" wouldn't be appealing to him?

Kaman/???
Brand/Fazekas
Thomas/Thornton
Mobley/E.Gordon(#6)
Arenas/Knight

Brand would turn that down in favor of going back the lottery for the forseeable future just to make a couple mil more? I think he'd seriously consider it.

Again, the problem is the timing. He has to exercise his ETO before any of the offseason action happens. He would need to know in advance that the Clippers would be willing to trade away their draft pick. He would have to be certain that EG was prepared to lowball Arenas enough to make him consider leaving; and he would have to be certain that Arenas would agree to a salary low enough so that Brand could still make something in the $12-14M range.

There's too many contingencies. Brand's entire plan could be foiled if EG offers Arenas max money. Then Brand is stuck as a free agent with no leverage other than potentially a $12.5M contract offer from Philly. I just don't think he risks it.

The key here is that EG is going to keep his mouth shut until after the draft. In the meantime, most other teams must assume that EG is prepared to offer Arenas the max. They must plan accordingly, which means they will all pursue other options that are more within reach. The Clippers and Philly most likely will not trade away their picks just to free up an extra $1-2M in cap space. Likewise, Brand, Marion and Baron Davis probably won't opt out because there are likely to be no big-money players in the market.

Once the draft is over, EG will know the situations of the other teams. Chances are, there will be nobody with serious cap room to offer. If no competitors step up, EG is free to be a hard ass and negotiate a deal at around $12M. If there are potential suitors, then EG can still offer Arenas the Max and pretend like it was his plan all along.

[LyricalRico]

Who said anything about trading the pick? I've got Eric Gordon in the lineup. This scenario involves the Clippers signing Gilbert outright. Shoot, Brand can call Arenas right now and ask him if he'd sign for $13M in LA to play with him.

And even if Gil doesn't come there, Brand doesn't lose anything because he can just resign with the Clippers for the max again. Doesn't seem complicated to me.

[nate33]

The trading of the pick is crucial for the Clippers to have the cap room to sign both Arenas and Brand. As of now, their first round draft pick is slated to make $2.8M. If you ignore the salaries of Brand, Maggette and Livingston, LA still has a payroll of $33M (after accounting for two minimum-salary scrubs to fill out the roster). That leaves just $25M for Arenas and Brand combined. If they keep the pick, they only have $22M for Arenas and Brand combined.

And I reiterate, Arenas right now is probably expecting a max offer from EG, or something close to it. If EG is smart, he hasn't indicated otherwise.

Let's say Brand will take a whopping $4M pay cut and signs for just $12M. That still only leaves $10M for Arenas. At this juncture, signing with LA for $10M or so is going to seem like a big fat pay cut for Arenas.

Corey Maggette is the other X-factor. Let's not forget that it's an ETO, not a team option. Presumably, Maggette is only going to opt out if he LA agrees to resign him for a long-term deal. Unless Maggette opts out, and the Clippers relinquish his rights, either his salary or his cap hold will count against the Clippers' cap.

I don't know if Maggette is going to opt out given the state of the market. Who is going to pay him more than $7M other than the Clippers?

[nate33]

All I'm saying is that a lot of stars have to align for the Clippers to be in position to extend Arenas a serious offer. EG can patiently wait to see if those stars are going to align. He doesn't have to do anything until the Clippers make a lot of decisions. If the Clippers do indeed position themselves for a run at Arenas, EG could still outbid them quite easily.

And from the Clippers perspective, they have to make several sacrifices just to put themselves in position to be in contention. I don't think they'll take that gamble. They'll have to relinquish Maggette, Livingston, their draft pick, and risk losing Brand to Philly - all for maybe a 1 in 10 chance at signing Arenas.