MVP Watch 2008... Part 3.

[NO-KG-AI]

Kobe is not a better help defender at this point, and no chris doesn't "dive into passing lanes," ask Nash or Kidd, who he ripped repeatedly of the ball.

Kobe is the better defender, no doubt what so ever, but Kobe isn't the only player in the league that draws defenses away, and makes things easier for his teammates, all star players have defenses cheated to them, and make things easier on their teammates.

At this point, I'm willing to give it to whoever of these two finishes with a better record

[semi-sentient]

And I'd say take Snow off the cavs list and Kwame off the Lakers list. From what I saw, neither guy was very effective when playing this year.

Wow, are you kidding me?

Eric Snow was averaging 1.0 PPG on 15.8% shooting.

Kwame Brown, with the Lakers, was averaging 5.7 PPG on 51.5% shooting and grabbing 5.6 RPG. Not great, but at least he was efficient, free throw shooting not included. Despite him lacking any kind of offensive game due to his inability to create (and catch for that matter), he excelled in other areas such as setting picks and surprisingly, passing. Defensively, you can't even compare the two. A big body like Kwame is far more important than what Snow could offer at his advanced age.

[eatyourchildren]

It's really a two-man race right now. CP or Kobe.
It's like the Chuckster said: The West schedule is just SO much harder than the East schedule that you have to give it to the top player in the West.

Right now, it's between Kobe and Paul, two guys who are clearly putting their team on their back.

Paul is taking an above-average supporting cast to the top record in the West.
Kobe is taking a talented but injury-ridden supporting cast to the top record in the West.

I can't be too disappointed if either guy wins, at this point. If they somehow end up with the same record, everyone's going to have their own tiebreakers, and I have a feeling its going to come down to sentiment.



But objectively, between the two players, discounting their teams and all else, who is the better player?

[NO-KG-AI]

It's really a two-man race right now. CP or Kobe.
It's like the Chuckster said: The West schedule is just SO much harder than the East schedule that you have to give it to the top player in the West.

Right now, it's between Kobe and Paul, two guys who are clearly putting their team on their back.

Paul is taking an above-average supporting cast to the top record in the West.
Kobe is taking a talented but injury-ridden supporting cast to the top record in the West.

I can't be too disappointed if either guy wins, at this point. If they somehow end up with the same record, everyone's going to have their own tiebreakers, and I have a feeling its going to come down to sentiment.



But objectively, between the two players, discounting their teams and all else, who is the better player?

Kobe is the better player, flat out, doesn't necessarily mean he is playing better so far this year though, if that makes sense.

MVP clearly hasn't been about the best player the past few years, but I'd say in a perfect world, individual success should outweigh team success in an MVP argument

[G35]

Kobe is not a better help defender at this point, and no chris doesn't "dive into passing lanes," ask Nash or Kidd, who he ripped repeatedly of the ball.

Kobe is the better defender, no doubt what so ever, but Kobe isn't the only player in the league that draws defenses away, and makes things easier for his teammates, all star players have defenses cheated to them, and make things easier on their teammates.

At this point, I'm willing to give it to whoever of these two finishes with a better record

I'd like to see some statistical evidence of Paul as a defender.


Looking at Paul's stats since the beginning of March Paul has been on fire.

In 10 games he hasn't shot less than 50% only once. Just eyeballing he looks to be shooting at around 60% for March which is just unreal for a PG. I thought Tony Parker would be the most efficient PG but Paul kills him because he can also shoot from the outside. He's nearly 50% on his three point shooting in the last 10 games.......

[NO-KG-AI]

Nah, Kobe is still a much much better defender, I was just saying Paul doesn't leap passing lanes, or play Larry Hughes D.

He disrupts offenses with ball pressure, and ripping his man, but yea, Kobe still has a clear edge.

[NO-KG-AI]

And checking PER again, because Chris is still on the rise, he now sits at 32 ALL TIME.... a PG

[Doctor MJ]

-= original quote snipped =-



I saw that, which is why I asked the question (not much of a +/- guy myself, but brought it up for those who are).

Phoenix is just 1 game out of first and riding a 6 game winning streak. Suddenly the trade doesn't look quite so bad. I believe the streak started the game Shaq dove into the crowd, which itself happened just after all of the talk of the trade being a bust. Interesting to watch these things develop.

The trade is indeed starting to look like it may be a hit. It'll be fun to see what happens.

[Doctor MJ]

You forget that Kobe is a playmaker, just not in the conventional ball-dominant sense. Go back a few pages and read what Van Gundy said TWICE on national television about Kobe making plays possible because the defense overloads on the side where Kobe is, allowing the weakside offense to run simple backdoor cuts.

That's overstating Kobe imho. Kobe's a good playmaker, but the most valuable playmakers in the game are the guys who have that as their primary role.

Also funny to say Kobe is not ball-dominant. Kobe's got the 3rd highest Usage in the league, Paul's not in the top 20. Of course there is a difference between playmaker ball-dominance, and usage ball-dominance. However what the difference means is that if someone is the latter and not the former it's specifically saying that the guy is doing less playmaking per opportunity than someone who is the former and not the latter.

[tkb]

I stated right off the bat that the trade was good for both Phoenix and Miami. I said it would take an adjustment period, and that the Suns would end up as a worse regular season team than if they had not made the trade, but at the same time that they would be better in the playoffs.

Starting to look good for the Suns and Shaq now.

[SA37]

I don't understand the argument that because Kobe's stats aren't as good (which is not true btw, because only his scoring is down), that CP or LeBron is a better candidate. Stats don't tell the whole story. Kobe's improvement has been in all the non-statistical categories, and has the media, coaches, and opposing teams raving about it.

That's pretty convenient, isn't it? It's like, 'Ah, well, since Kobe's statistics haven't improved all that much, we'll just say all his improvements have been of the non-statistical kind and that should trump any significant improvement by any other player...'

What kind of absolute bollocks is this? If Bryant had increased his assists this season to 7, there would be no end to Laker fans raving about increasing his assists from 5 a season ago to 7 this season. If Bryant was scoring 35 a game, Laker fans wouldn't be able to shut up about how he has no help and he has to score 35 a night for the team to win. If Bryant was shooting 48% from the field, they wouldn't be able to stop gawking at his efficiency.

The issue Laker fans have is that Bryant has not improved his statistics all that much. So what happens? We get the argument that his improvements don't show up in the stat sheet.

I also don't understand the argument that Kobe hasn't made his teammates better, they've gotten better. But CP has made his teammates better? From where do you get that? CP and his teammates were injured last year. How can you assess the impact of CP when you dont have a prior healthy season to compare to?

Paul has made or assisted on just under 50% of his team's baskets this season and accounts for over 50% of the team's total assists. I am not saying stats are the whole story, but that is damn good indicator of what is going on...

I am not sure who you're directing your comments to, but I have never sat here and made the claim Paul makes his teammates better and Kobe Bryant doesn't. What I have said is that I think the Lakers' rise to the top of the West has more to do with individual improvements of players and acquisitions than anything Kobe has done.

That isn't to say Kobe doesn't make the game easier for his teammates by drawing so much attention and hasn't played with a more team-oriented approach this year. But to suggest guys like Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Jordan Farmar have played like they have only because of Bryant is absolutely ridiculous, which is what some people want you to believe.

This load of bollocks people like to spew on these boards about all of Bryant's merits not showing up in the stat sheet is pathetic. If Bryant's stats allowed Laker fans to boast, they would absolutely do it. But since it doesn't fit into their argument, it now has become, 'You can't see the improvement on the stat sheet,' which is somehow supposed to trump the guy who has improved almost every statistical category possible.

It is true that stats don't tell the whole story, but there is a reason they are kept and why so many people look at them.

SA37: How can you possibly argue that CP is a more complete player than Kobe? Kobe can guard the opposing team's best PG/SG/SF. CP cannot do that. Advantage Kobe in the defense department. Do you think CP is going to get 1st Team NBA D? Kobe can manufacture a shot a lot better than CP can. It's not a knock on CP, but Kobe is among the top 3 in manufacturing his own shot. And he's among the top 3 in his position as a defender. How is CP even comparable in terms of completeness?

Why on earth would a 6-foot, 180-pound player be asked to guard SGs and SFs? Are you even listening to what you're suggesting? Anyway, too many times people confuse versatility with being good or being better.

An example would be, who is more versatile, Lamar Odom or Shaq? Now, which guy are you taking on your team, assuming both are in their primes? Who is more versatile, Boris Diaw or Yao Ming? Who are you taking on your team?

Paul may or may not get 1st team all-defense. If I am honest, I would say the chances are fairly good. His main competition would probably be Billups, B. Davis, and Raja Bell. Either way, I don't think it is all that relevant.

Kobe may be better at creating his own shot, but if we broaden it a bit and just say who is best at creating shots for both themselves and their teammates, wouldn't you say Paul probably has an edge?

At the end of the day Paul is a complete point guard. He's efficient (2nd in the L), his asst-to-to ratio is beyond fantastic (3rd in the L), he can score (15th in the L), he can dish it (T-1st), he can steal it (1st), he shoots almost 50% from the floor (36th in the L, 10th amongst guards), 37% from 3 (59th in the L, 39th amongst guards), and 86% from the line (T-16th in the L, 12th amongst guards).

- He is tied with Deron Williams for the most double-doubles by a guard this year (43).

- He is the only guard in the league averaging 20+ppg and 10+apg. (The last guy to do that that I could find is Tim Hardaway in '92-93, when he averaged 21.5ppg and 10.6apg.) As a matter of fact, if he finishes with those numbers, he will be the only active player to have accomplished this. The only guys I could find who had had 20+ppg, 10+apg seasons ever were Hardaway, Magic, Kevin Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Oscar Robertson, and Nate Archibald.

[CzBoobie]

...

[tkb]

What does improvement of own statistics have to do with the MVP? Nothing.

[INKtastic]

SA37 - good post, I just want to add a couple of observations. LeBron has scored or assisted on 51% of his teams baskets and is doing something (31/8/7) only Jordan and Oscar have done before.

It's also interesting that Kobe fans use the size difference between LeBron and Kobe to excuse why LeBron dominates the end of games when the cavs play the lakers, then wants to exploit a similar size difference as an advantage for Kobe vs Paul.

That's one problem I've had with Kobe as MVP - the argument for why changes in contradictory ways depending on who's being argued against.

Wins matter when comparing against LeBron, wins don't matter when comparing against KG. Same gap both ways.

Size matters when comparing against Paul, size doesn't matter when comparing against LeBron.

Some of his teammates are scrubs that Kobe has to win in spite of when they play (Kwame), but are key missing pieces when they are out.

Kobe was robbed of MVP the last two years because of statistical dominance despite low win totals, LeBron has not chance at MVP this year despite greater statistical dominance and more wins (vs Kobe those years).

Despite a significant drop in scoring, it's argued that Kobe is having his best season because he's improved in some statistical areas, never-mind that these "improvements" often lag behind the production of other players (assists, rebounds, eFG%).

It goes on and on. It seems to me that case for MVP should be consistent, as it is with other candidates being debated.

[semi-sentient]

What does improvement of own statistics have to do with the MVP? Nothing.

I'd like to know this as well.

It seems like people are just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point.

[Jules Winnfield]

I don't understand the argument that because Kobe's stats aren't as good (which is not true btw, because only his scoring is down), that CP or LeBron is a better candidate. Stats don't tell the whole story. Kobe's improvement has been in all the non-statistical categories, and has the media, coaches, and opposing teams raving about it.

That's pretty convenient, isn't it? It's like, 'Ah, well, since Kobe's statistics haven't improved all that much, we'll just say all his improvements have been of the non-statistical kind and that should trump any significant improvement by any other player...'

What kind of absolute bollocks is this? If Bryant had increased his assists this season to 7, there would be no end to Laker fans raving about increasing his assists from 5 a season ago to 7 this season. If Bryant was scoring 35 a game, Laker fans wouldn't be able to shut up about how he has no help and he has to score 35 a night for the team to win. If Bryant was shooting 48% from the field, they wouldn't be able to stop gawking at his efficiency.

The issue Laker fans have is that Bryant has not improved his statistics all that much. So what happens? We get the argument that his improvements don't show up in the stat sheet.

I also don't understand the argument that Kobe hasn't made his teammates better, they've gotten better. But CP has made his teammates better? From where do you get that? CP and his teammates were injured last year. How can you assess the impact of CP when you dont have a prior healthy season to compare to?

Paul has made or assisted on just under 50% of his team's baskets this season and accounts for over 50% of the team's total assists. I am not saying stats are the whole story, but that is damn good indicator of what is going on...

I am not sure who you're directing your comments to, but I have never sat here and made the claim Paul makes his teammates better and Kobe Bryant doesn't. What I have said is that I think the Lakers' rise to the top of the West has more to do with individual improvements of players and acquisitions than anything Kobe has done.

That isn't to say Kobe doesn't make the game easier for his teammates by drawing so much attention and hasn't played with a more team-oriented approach this year. But to suggest guys like Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Jordan Farmar have played like they have only because of Bryant is absolutely ridiculous, which is what some people want you to believe.

This load of bollocks people like to spew on these boards about all of Bryant's merits not showing up in the stat sheet is pathetic. If Bryant's stats allowed Laker fans to boast, they would absolutely do it. But since it doesn't fit into their argument, it now has become, 'You can't see the improvement on the stat sheet,' which is somehow supposed to trump the guy who has improved almost every statistical category possible.

It is true that stats don't tell the whole story, but there is a reason they are kept and why so many people look at them.

SA37: How can you possibly argue that CP is a more complete player than Kobe? Kobe can guard the opposing team's best PG/SG/SF. CP cannot do that. Advantage Kobe in the defense department. Do you think CP is going to get 1st Team NBA D? Kobe can manufacture a shot a lot better than CP can. It's not a knock on CP, but Kobe is among the top 3 in manufacturing his own shot. And he's among the top 3 in his position as a defender. How is CP even comparable in terms of completeness?

Why on earth would a 6-foot, 180-pound player be asked to guard SGs and SFs? Are you even listening to what you're suggesting? Anyway, too many times people confuse versatility with being good or being better.

An example would be, who is more versatile, Lamar Odom or Shaq? Now, which guy are you taking on your team, assuming both are in their primes? Who is more versatile, Boris Diaw or Yao Ming? Who are you taking on your team?

Paul may or may not get 1st team all-defense. If I am honest, I would say the chances are fairly good. His main competition would probably be Billups, B. Davis, and Raja Bell. Either way, I don't think it is all that relevant.

Kobe may be better at creating his own shot, but if we broaden it a bit and just say who is best at creating shots for both themselves and their teammates, wouldn't you say Paul probably has an edge?

At the end of the day Paul is a complete point guard. He's efficient (2nd in the L), his asst-to-to ratio is beyond fantastic (3rd in the L), he can score (15th in the L), he can dish it (T-1st), he can steal it (1st), he shoots almost 50% from the floor (36th in the L, 10th amongst guards), 37% from 3 (59th in the L, 39th amongst guards), and 86% from the line (T-16th in the L, 12th amongst guards).

- He is tied with Deron Williams for the most double-doubles by a guard this year (43).

- He is the only guard in the league averaging 20+ppg and 10+apg. (The last guy to do that that I could find is Tim Hardaway in '92-93, when he averaged 21.5ppg and 10.6apg.) As a matter of fact, if he finishes with those numbers, he will be the only active player to have accomplished this. The only guys I could find who had had 20+ppg, 10+apg seasons ever were Hardaway, Magic, Kevin Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Oscar Robertson, and Nate Archibald.

There's people that understand the game of basketball...and then there's you.

Anyone with any basketball IQ knows what Kobe is doing that doesn't show up in the box score.

Your first point is absolute ridiculous. Of course it is a pro that Kobe can guard G-SF-SG. That makes him a more complete defensive player compared to Paul. Just like KG can guard at multiple positions and do it extremely well. To suggest otherwise is laughable. Of course Paul cannot do it physically, but that's Paul's limitation. Think about why people say Magic is one of the best of all time. He played all five positions in the finals . Oh, and bigger PG's like Deron switch on the perimeter and it helps out the defense a good deal. Deron can switch onto SGs. So they can be asked to do that. Paul isn't asked to do it because he isn't capable.

Your second point is fair. Paul is a first team defender in my book. But Kobe has been playing at a DPOY level.

I think Paul has an edge in creating shots because that is the role on his team. Paul is the best PG in the league. Kobe is the best SG in the league. It is expected that Paul gets more assists, but Kobe does more for his ballclub in his role. He is their defensive catalyst. He is the primary scorer. He is the best at getting to the line on the ballclub. He is asked to rebound. He is asked to be the facilitator and the initiator of the triangle offense. He gets assists, although the most important pass in the triangle is the pass before the assist. He spreads the defense better than Paul imo.

I like also that you can put any number of players at Kobe's disposal and he's going to get you a .500 + record no matter what. He just dismantled two of the best home teams without a true center, without his two best sidekicks, and without his best perimeter defender (Ariza). I don't know for sure, but I don't think Paul is versatile enough to get that done. Only Lebron and Kobe can do that imo.

Oh, and don't sneeze at Kobe's season either. Only a handful of players have ever had the season Kobe is having this year of at least 28/6/5/2. Only 6 players in NBA history have accomplished this (Jordan, Lebron, Bird, McGrady, Dr. J and George McGinnis). Pretty exciting company imo.

[JusBus32]

Yes this race is very tight. Yes there are some amazing players this year who all deserve it. This is why I don't think stats will matter much this year. This is why I don't think record will matter as much this year (as long as they have 50 wins).

LeBron - Having his best season and producing mind-blowing stats. However, his team is 4th in the East (which isn't that hard to achieve especially since they were in the Finals last year). It remains to be seen if his team can even get to 50 wins this year so I see him in last place in my top 4.

KG - With his team having the best record in the league, it could be hard to argue that he isn't the MVP. However, he has a teammate named Paul Pierce who is also playing amazing and on any given night, can produce numbers better than KG's. Another reason why he is third on my list is that the Celts were winning without KG.

Paul - Putting Paul 2nd is difficult to do because of what he has done. He has helped his teammates play at a higher level and he's been able to handle the pressure of not being the underdog in a lot of his games. He has taken a team who wasn't in the playoffs a year before and shot them up to the top of the Western Conference. In my eyes, he's the best PG in the league. The reason why I don't put him at #1 is because....

...Kobe has been basically the constant for a tough Lakers Team. A team that has had injuries to almost all of their important starters. With Odom out, they were winning games. With Odom and Bynum in, they were in 1st in the West. With Bynum and Ariza out, they slipped a bit, but were still able to win games, even at the beginning of their long road trip. With Gasol in, they were launched back into 1st. With Gasol out, they were able to take 1st again beating the 2 best home teams in the league. Kobe's doing this while playing with injuries to his shooting wrist (sprain), groin (strain), and shooting hand (fracture, sprain, dislocation). Dude isn't even 100% and he's still doing what he does best. Plus he's making his teammates more confident.

I feel MVP goes way beyond stats (or at least should) and what Kobe is doing for his team is pretty amazing.

[eatyourchildren]

SA37:

1. Don't put me in this "Kobe Fans" group and then characterize their arguments as mine. I can't/won't reply to things that I've never said. I've always been consistent that stats won't tell the story on any player, especially when half, if not more, of that player's contribution is on defense, game management, etc. Stats like PER, box score stats, and the like, have all been admitted to as being inconclusive about that half of the game. This is a fact, and despite you think it's "convenient" for me to keep saying that, it remains a fact. So THIS Laker fan is going to stand by that statement.

It seems like that explanation will never work for non-Kobe fans (I won't go so far as to call you haters). But here's a guy it most definitely DOES work for. Remember Michael Jordan? Statistically, his finest individual seasons came in the early 1990's. Scored 37 points a game, boarded 7 a game, dished out 6 a game, 2 steals a game, 2 blocks a game. Mind-blowing numbers, right? But if you ask the knowledgeable basketball fans out there, they'll answer that Jordan's finest season as a player was his 1995-1996 season, when the Bulls got that elusive 72-win record. But look at Jordan's numbers from that year. Still good by any measure, but he regressed statistically from his early 90's days.

Even the Chuckster has pointed out that this has been Bryant's most complete season to-date. Is his argument, and my argument, and Phil Jackson's argument, and Tex Winter's argument, bollocks?

2. Look, if people are going to attribute Kobe's supporting cast's improvement to everything BUT Kobe, I don't think it's so unfair to attribute CP's supporitng cast's improvement to non-CP things like, oh, being healthy and together for the entire season. CP's stats have taken a meteoric rise. But again, that award would be best for the MIP award, not the MVP award. You can't penalize a guy who's been playing at a top level for 10+ years to continue to escalate his stats, when the history of most top basketball players (Nash excluded) is that in their prime (28-32) their excellence as a basketball player is about completeness and leadership, not stats.

I'm sorry, but argue it all you want, but at this point in his career, CP as a point guard is not better than Kobe as a shooting guard. Kobe is already regarded as a top 3 shooting guard of ALL TIME. Think about that. Kobe is every bit as good as he has been for the past however many years, and has only added to that by rounding out his team game. So I still don't understand this argument that CP is as good as Kobe this year, or that CP is playing a more complete game than Kobe. Kobe is elite in almost every single meaningful category. You can keep repeating to yourself and all of us that you can't measure the qualitative difference in defensive production between CP and Kobe. But I'm pretty sure all of us know who is the better defender by FAR. I mean, 2 years ago, people were arguing about who the better defender was between Wade and Kobe. And Wade back then was a better defender than CP is right now. I don't see how it's that close. I mean, even taking defensive versatility out of the question, let's ask this: will CP at any point this year, next year, or the year after that, bump Kobe off the ALL-NBA D 1st Team?

LJ4MVP:

1. About the size thing: That's a logically flawed argument you're making. It'd be one thing if Laker Fans were saying LeBron's a better defender only because he's bigger and then went and used the size difference against Paul. That would be an inconsistent stance. We're talking only about defensive capability here, not size as a factor in taking over games. So I don't see your rebuttal as having any real logical force.

2. I also think your aggregating all Laker Fans' arguments into one huge cauldron and pointing out inconsistencies. But if you argue against them individually, you may not find nearly as many inconsistencies. No one Laker Fan has put out the official Kobe-for-MVP argument, so if one guy says this, and another guy says that, and they are inconsistent when juxtaposed, well, that's what happens when you aggregate and apply it across the board. Comprehende?

For example, if you were to argue with me only, you'd probably realize I've stayed consistent throughout. I havent advocated a wins-only criterion, nor have advocated an individual performance-only criterion. The one thing I HAVE supported is ridding this uneducated reliance on stats. If you go to Hollinger's site on stats, he himself warns people not to take it as the whole picture, but here we have people doing as such.

I've tried doing a 8-factor test for the MVP, and people balked at that. I've tried Best-wins X Best-performance test for the MVP, and people dodged that. So what we now have is the "But my candidate is REALLY REALLY good" line of reasoning.

Assuming that Kobe, LeBron, and CP are all neck-and-neck, what are the distinguishing traits? For me, it's defense.

[Jules Winnfield]

The problem is that for 3 years, when Kobe's teammates weren't performing well he got ALL of the criticism. "He's too selfish" "He doesn't make others better." "Blah Blah blah." Now that they are doing well, people want to give him none of the credit.

[G35]

Why on earth would a 6-foot, 180-pound player be asked to guard SGs and SFs? Are you even listening to what you're suggesting? Anyway, too many times people confuse versatility with being good or being better.

Just because he has a physical limitation doesn't mean it isn't a weakness. He's a small guy, he can be posted up. Which brings me to my next point.

Stats are important, but why didn't you show any stats for the defensive side? How well does Paul defend PG's?

Taking a cursory look I've seen that PG's have had quite a bit of success going against Paul. They usually shoot at a high % and have some scoring success.

From what I've seen if Paul can't steal the ball then he becomes less of a defensive presence. Since he is only 6'0 180 lbs.......