Kevin Martin vs Monta Ellis
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Abyss Impact
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Twinkie defense wrote:Yeah I guess when K-Mart's bro gets gunned down in cold blood we're "even" if that's what you mean by experiencing a tragedy in the family
I think it was because of Pietrus when Martin was in his slump... You do know... Pietrus is a LOCK DOWN defender against good players like K Mart.
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KF10
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Twinkie defense wrote:Yeah I guess when K-Mart's bro gets gunned down in cold blood we're "even" if that's what you mean by experiencing a tragedy in the family
Yes, I know it is a tragedy and I should have not have said that silly statement, so I apologize for it....but you have to consider the fact that several Warriors fan pulled games when Martin is injured/slump phase...Either way, it is unfair to the basic comparison...
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tsherkin
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My first thoughts...
Monta Ellis is a 6'3 combo guard with no 3pt shot whatsoever, is nearly 8% worse at the line and draws fouls at roughly -0.2 FTA/FGA, which is a HUGE gap.
Just FWIW:
Career 3P%:
Martin: 38.0% (and it's gone up every year)
Ellis: 28.7% (and it's gone down every year)
Career FT%:
Martin: 84.2% (peaked at 85.9% this year)
Ellis: 75.9% (peaked at 76.4% this year)*
* When I say "peaked," I don't mean this is their absolute peak, I mean this is the highest value thus far; consequently, Ellis' best FT% performance is 7.8% below Martin's career average.
Career FTA/FGA:
Martin: 0.523
Ellis: 0.335*
* Martin's FTM/FGA is higher (0.44) than Ellis' FTA/FGA, which is to be expected; he's a considerably superior slasher and Ellis likes to shoot a lot of mid-range jumpers instead of getting all the way to the rim.
Ellis has taken 952 FGA this year; 359 have come from 15 feet or farther (37.7%) and he's taken an additional 117 shots in "jumper" range, about 8-15 feet from the rim.
He finishes well at the rim but given how many transition points he gets in a given game, that's less a surprise because he gets a couple of gimme baskets every game. Still, 64.4% raw FG on 475 point blank shots is nothing to sneer at.
Martin has taken 733 FGA this year. 385 have come from 15 feet and out (52.5%), which is actually both a larger raw number and percentage than Ellis. And yet he draws 3.9 MORE FTA/g because he is so much more effective as a slasher... and this is not a new trend.
What is noteworthy is that Martin "only" finishes at 55.5% on his point blank shots; Ellis has an advantage there that cannot be entirely explained by virtue of transition baskets.
In fact, Ellis' finishing at the rim is perhaps one of his best traits, that and his speed (which is absolutely astonishing, to be sure).
Still, since there is little appreciable difference in their rebounding or defense at this time, the major differences are that Ellis is a more prolific passer and that Martin is a much better scorer (slasher AND shooter).
For my money, I go with Martin, because combo guards are a dime a dozen.
Ellis is nice, and should be ranked above the dime-and-dozen category I just mentioned, but he's really done nothing to truly separate himself. He's on the 2nd-fastest team in the league and he doesn't take threes (about 1 every other game), so he's focusing on very makeable shots...
More importantly, he has two 20+ ppg scorers ahead of him, taking pressure off of him defensively and making his life a lot easier.
He reminds me a lot of Jeff Malone without the skill at the foul line, in many ways.
Compare and contrast this with Sacramento...
There are two 20+ ppg scorers on the team. One of them is Martin.
The other is Ron Artest, who is stupid but significant enough to draw some attention. But since Martin is the primary scorer and not the third guy on the team, it's considerably more difficult for him to score.
I don't want to put Ellis down in order to prop up Martin, so don't take it like that, but comparing them directly is a fool's game; Martin is working a lot harder for his points and is a much, MUCH better shooter and slasher than is Ellis, who happens also to be in a much more favorable offensive situation.
Remember, Golden State moves quickly and crisply; they are the 3rd-best team in the league in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is 15th in Off Eff and 8th in pace.
They're slower and less successful... and a lot of that has to do with Artest, who wouldn't understand fluidity if you dumped a bucket of fish-water on his face.
Ellis has a nice game; I like that he understands that he's not a 3-ball sniper and he keeps his game under the arc; that's really wise and makes a big difference to his efficiency. I meant that Malone comparison, except that he's even faster than was Jeff and that's impressive.
But the fouls that Martin draws and his outside threat make him much more valuable, especially because he does it as the #1 guy on the squad with a cancer of a player like Artest next to him, so I have to go with Kevin Martin over Ellis here.
Monta Ellis is a 6'3 combo guard with no 3pt shot whatsoever, is nearly 8% worse at the line and draws fouls at roughly -0.2 FTA/FGA, which is a HUGE gap.
Just FWIW:
Career 3P%:
Martin: 38.0% (and it's gone up every year)
Ellis: 28.7% (and it's gone down every year)
Career FT%:
Martin: 84.2% (peaked at 85.9% this year)
Ellis: 75.9% (peaked at 76.4% this year)*
* When I say "peaked," I don't mean this is their absolute peak, I mean this is the highest value thus far; consequently, Ellis' best FT% performance is 7.8% below Martin's career average.
Career FTA/FGA:
Martin: 0.523
Ellis: 0.335*
* Martin's FTM/FGA is higher (0.44) than Ellis' FTA/FGA, which is to be expected; he's a considerably superior slasher and Ellis likes to shoot a lot of mid-range jumpers instead of getting all the way to the rim.
Ellis has taken 952 FGA this year; 359 have come from 15 feet or farther (37.7%) and he's taken an additional 117 shots in "jumper" range, about 8-15 feet from the rim.
He finishes well at the rim but given how many transition points he gets in a given game, that's less a surprise because he gets a couple of gimme baskets every game. Still, 64.4% raw FG on 475 point blank shots is nothing to sneer at.
Martin has taken 733 FGA this year. 385 have come from 15 feet and out (52.5%), which is actually both a larger raw number and percentage than Ellis. And yet he draws 3.9 MORE FTA/g because he is so much more effective as a slasher... and this is not a new trend.
What is noteworthy is that Martin "only" finishes at 55.5% on his point blank shots; Ellis has an advantage there that cannot be entirely explained by virtue of transition baskets.
In fact, Ellis' finishing at the rim is perhaps one of his best traits, that and his speed (which is absolutely astonishing, to be sure).
Still, since there is little appreciable difference in their rebounding or defense at this time, the major differences are that Ellis is a more prolific passer and that Martin is a much better scorer (slasher AND shooter).
For my money, I go with Martin, because combo guards are a dime a dozen.
Ellis is nice, and should be ranked above the dime-and-dozen category I just mentioned, but he's really done nothing to truly separate himself. He's on the 2nd-fastest team in the league and he doesn't take threes (about 1 every other game), so he's focusing on very makeable shots...
More importantly, he has two 20+ ppg scorers ahead of him, taking pressure off of him defensively and making his life a lot easier.
He reminds me a lot of Jeff Malone without the skill at the foul line, in many ways.
Compare and contrast this with Sacramento...
There are two 20+ ppg scorers on the team. One of them is Martin.
The other is Ron Artest, who is stupid but significant enough to draw some attention. But since Martin is the primary scorer and not the third guy on the team, it's considerably more difficult for him to score.
I don't want to put Ellis down in order to prop up Martin, so don't take it like that, but comparing them directly is a fool's game; Martin is working a lot harder for his points and is a much, MUCH better shooter and slasher than is Ellis, who happens also to be in a much more favorable offensive situation.
Remember, Golden State moves quickly and crisply; they are the 3rd-best team in the league in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is 15th in Off Eff and 8th in pace.
They're slower and less successful... and a lot of that has to do with Artest, who wouldn't understand fluidity if you dumped a bucket of fish-water on his face.
Ellis has a nice game; I like that he understands that he's not a 3-ball sniper and he keeps his game under the arc; that's really wise and makes a big difference to his efficiency. I meant that Malone comparison, except that he's even faster than was Jeff and that's impressive.
But the fouls that Martin draws and his outside threat make him much more valuable, especially because he does it as the #1 guy on the squad with a cancer of a player like Artest next to him, so I have to go with Kevin Martin over Ellis here.
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tsherkin
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The_Believer wrote:Monta Ellis is MUCH better at getting to the rim than Kmart is. Monta and Baron are generally seen as two of the, if not the two best, players at getting to the rim.
But the end result is still that Martin draws more fouls, and that's more valuable than simply finishing a basket.
Yes, Ellis is faster than Martin and yes, he does get point-blank shots a lot more frequently but some of that is because of easier defensive coverage, some of it is on account of the difference in pace and some of the effect is diminished because he is terrible at drawing fouls by comparison.
The value of a foul drawn, especially when Martin is frequently hitting the shot that drew the foul, is higher than a simple FGM. It has more effect than merely the points scored.
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floppymoose
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Monta doesn't shoot threes. So talking about his 3pt% gets you nowhere. His % has gone down every year because he takes fewer and fewer per minute every year - which means an increasing percentage of them are end-of-quarter or end-of-shot-clock hucks.
I also disagree with choosing the "scorer" over the "combo guard". Scorers are less valuable than good point guards, and Monta is showing great progress at becoming a point guard.
Every time I come back to this thread I discover I've already bookmarked it. Two years ago this poll would have been 99%/1% in Kevin's favor. Now it's 55%/45%.
Come back in two more years.
I also disagree with choosing the "scorer" over the "combo guard". Scorers are less valuable than good point guards, and Monta is showing great progress at becoming a point guard.
Every time I come back to this thread I discover I've already bookmarked it. Two years ago this poll would have been 99%/1% in Kevin's favor. Now it's 55%/45%.
Come back in two more years.
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Cruel_Ruin
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The only PG duties Ellis has is bringing the ball up the floor. He does not control tempo, he doesn't run the pick and roll, he doesn't set up offense. He has average court vision and all of his assists come from drive and kicks to set shooters. In any other system besides the Warriors game, he's a SG who can pass as a PG every now and then.
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tsherkin
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floppymoose wrote:Monta doesn't shoot threes. So talking about his 3pt% gets you nowhere. His % has gone down every year because he takes fewer and fewer per minute every year - which means an increasing percentage of them are end-of-quarter or end-of-shot-clock hucks.
I addressed this in my post, you're making a mountain out of a molehill.
I also disagree with choosing the "scorer" over the "combo guard". Scorers are less valuable than good point guards, and Monta is showing great progress at becoming a point guard.
I think he's showing signs that he's a good combo guard, yes, but I think Martin has more value to a team because there are many offenses that do not require a very good conventional point guard and you can always use a good slasher who's also an outstanding perimeter shooter.
Come back in two more years.
We'll see; it's not like there's no argument to be made for Ellis. To make the conventional (and annoying) "x, and it's not close" argument would be ignorant.
Ellis has his value and there are things to be said about a small Jeff Malone type player. His passing is valuable and his mid-range game is laudable, especially in the modern era when it seems so out of place. Actually, he kind of reminds me of Sam Cassell with athleticism... LOTS of athleticism (mind that Cassell has never been a big-time three-baller, though he certain shoots more of them than does Ellis at present, though that'll change with time, I think).
So yeah, you CAN make a fairly compelling argument in Ellis' favor but if I'm to have a guy who's primary value is offense, and that's the case with Ellis no matter how you look at it, I'm going after Martin because he's flat-out superior as a scorer.
Ellis' passing is nice, but Martin is more useful, IMO, than Ellis. If Monta were a real point guard already, then it might be a different scenario and as you say, he continues to develop as a player. So to does Martin, though, so this should be a fairly intriguing debate as time passes.
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floppymoose
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Monta runs the pick and roll all the time. Your scouting report is a year old. I do agree he is not there yet, but he has been starting to find people inside this season.
And the flip side is you can't pass to what isn't there. In the Warriors system, kicking out to a shooter is often all 4 of your choices. Andris is playing < half the minutes these days.
edit: I think you may be confused about the pick and roll because so often he doesn't need to pass - he just scores directly off the pick. When you are as efficient as Monta this is not a bad thing, and doesn't mean he can't pass.
And the flip side is you can't pass to what isn't there. In the Warriors system, kicking out to a shooter is often all 4 of your choices. Andris is playing < half the minutes these days.
edit: I think you may be confused about the pick and roll because so often he doesn't need to pass - he just scores directly off the pick. When you are as efficient as Monta this is not a bad thing, and doesn't mean he can't pass.
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tsherkin
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floppymoose wrote:edit: I think you may be confused about the pick and roll because so often he doesn't need to pass - he just scores directly off the pick. When you are as efficient as Monta this is not a bad thing, and doesn't mean he can't pass.
This, I'll second; of the dozen or so Warriors games I've seen this year, I've generally been pretty comfortable with his shot selection in the pick-and-roll.
You let him get open in the mid-range at your peril; Ellis is shooting 46.9% on the left wing and 42.9% on the right wing from 15-22 feet. He's also shooting 52.9% in the top half of the circle. Put that together and he's shooting just about 46% in the most common zones where he'd be after a high sidescreen or a mid-screen.
That's pretty damned efficient, and that's even if he doesn't get closer, for one of those 64.4% point blank shots, or over on the left block if he goes around and gets just to the left of the paint for a 47.7% shot.
The whole idea of the pick-and-roll is to get a really good look at the basket; the Warriors don't actually have great pick-and-roll bigs. Biedrins is nice and he finishes well, but he's actually 2-10 on anything that isn't a point-blank shot and he's shooting 63.8% there (which is actually lower than Ellis). But the pick-and-roll will often get you shots that aren't point-blank, so that has to be considered, and with Ellis' speed, it's not always a pick and ROLL so much as an on-ball screen for Ellis to scoot around and dart into the paint. The Raptors do it a lot with Ford and Calderon over on the right wing, though our bigs can all pop and hit that mid-range J (and some even the 3), it's a pretty classic use of a fundamental set.
And here I'm discussing Calderon and Ford, both of whom are very good distributors.
ITO "bigs," Harrington's very clearly more of a shooter than a roller, different from Boozer or Dwight or Amare (etc) and POB, well, even when he's played he hasn't been a real stunner, if you follow. Croshere? I could go on but it'd be fruitless.
In the context of the Golden State offense, the emphasis is on jump shots anyway; that's part of why Baron Davis isn't murdered for merrily chucking from downtown, it's a free-flowing offense that looks for quick attacks and the shot from the guy receiving the screen is the fastest look out of an on-ball screen.
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FNQ
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If you say Monta can't pass, you havent watched this season... its pretty simple.
Baron gets a lot of assists from post kick outs for open 3s and to cutters... Ellis is a drive and dish player exclusively. He gets our team open looks on 3s - whether or not they finish them just depends on how they are.
Most, if not all of the games Ellis racks up assists, are games we shoot 3s well. He brings a crowd in, and if they actually look to stop him, he, throws it out for a 3, or sometimes inside to Biedrins for a jam.
If you want to harp on his passing, his passing off the dribble definitely needs work. As does overall ball control. But he has vision and understanding, and uses it pretty well. Because he doesn't dominate the 'final' touches like Baron does, he doesn't get as many assists. But he sure does make nice passes like Baron, and they're becoming more and more frequent.
Baron gets a lot of assists from post kick outs for open 3s and to cutters... Ellis is a drive and dish player exclusively. He gets our team open looks on 3s - whether or not they finish them just depends on how they are.
Most, if not all of the games Ellis racks up assists, are games we shoot 3s well. He brings a crowd in, and if they actually look to stop him, he, throws it out for a 3, or sometimes inside to Biedrins for a jam.
If you want to harp on his passing, his passing off the dribble definitely needs work. As does overall ball control. But he has vision and understanding, and uses it pretty well. Because he doesn't dominate the 'final' touches like Baron does, he doesn't get as many assists. But he sure does make nice passes like Baron, and they're becoming more and more frequent.