The Eddie House Trey Effect

Cyclical · Post #1 » by **Cyclical** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:01 am

My friend and I have had this theory all season that Eddie's 3-point shooting is always great in easy games and not so much in big ones. So we checked out the stats and here they are:

3-point shooting against all playoff teams in the west, plus DET, CLE and WASH (forget the raptors, their defense is not half as intense as Washington and the Wizards have a winning record against us):

.307

3-point shooting against the rest:

.402

There are a coule of exceptions (shot great from beyond the arc against Utah for instance) but for the most part, it holds true. This is not a diss on Eddie, just an observation. I love the guy and am happy he's on our team. Just something to take notice of and see if any improvement happens. Hoping Eddie rises to the occasion in the playoffs, where he shoots .250 for his career from 3, versus a .383 regular season average.

Banks2Pierce · Post #2 » by **Banks2Pierce** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:20 am

I have also seen this. Nice research.

The thing is, the good teams generally play defense. Eddie is fairly useless against Detroit this season because they have a guy on him out at the 3 pt line.

He did hit a huge 3 against San Antonio and seems to be a great presence for this team on the sidelines and in the locker room.

Jammer · Post #3 » by **Jammer** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:25 am

Like the previous poster points out,

if you've been paying attention,

Eddie shoots the lights out against teams that let him shoot (typically teams with nothing to play for, or who don't bring it every night).

Against teams that get in his face, he takes a lot fewer shots, and shoots a considerably lower %. This ain't rocket science. It's observable by simply paying attention.

On Eddie's best days, he can just throw it up, and the ball goes in.

At least with Sam Cassell, the Celtics have another player who can protect the ball and make shots, in case other players aren't hitting. It's something that they've needed from the beginning. They finally have a 5th guard in their rotation.

Cyclical · Post #4 » by **Cyclical** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:58 am

Jammer wrote:if you've been paying attention,

Eddie shoots the lights out against teams that let him shoot (typically teams with nothing to play for, or who don't bring it every night).

Against teams that get in his face, he takes a lot fewer shots, and shoots a considerably lower %. This ain't rocket science. It's observable by simply paying attention.

It ain't rocket science but it's worthy of a post. I think you're dissmissing it too lightly. Listen, not ALL players respond like this. Eddie does. Shooting such a low percentage during the playoffs for his career from 3-point land IS something to take notice of. It does not happen with most supposed "lights out" shooters to such extreme extent. If a specialist 3-point shooter only makes 3 out of 10 during the season in high pressure games, and has shown to hit at an even lower clip during the playoffs throughout his career it shows, if nothing else, that pressure games and pressure D may get to him. That's it.

For example (one among many) Steve Kerr was a long range specialist off the bench. His 3-pt playoff average dropped from 45% to 37% - still good. An expected drop due to better defense but not an extreme drop to 25% shooting. Again, something to watch for with Eddie, that's all. But thanks man - I'll start paying more attention, as I usually tend to doze off in games.

bceltic55 · Post #5 » by **bceltic55** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 11:24 am

Very good analysis, but to be completely accurate you will need to compare the other top shooters in the league, ie Ben Gordon etc and look at their stats good vs bad teams, do their stats also go down and then measure the percentage difference of House to them.

Red2 · Post #6 » by **Red2** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 1:49 pm

that percentae is going to change with Cassell. Eddie should get more open looks than when he was running the point. When Eddie has to handle the balll AND shoot he's not nearly as effective a shooter as when he can spot up

Collinto · Post #7 » by **Collinto** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:53 pm

It seems to me (observational only) that House doesn't play nearly as much in games against elite teams, as he does against the rest of the league. It also seems that he doesn't shoot as much in those games...although he may shoot as many threes, it may be the driving floaters that he shoots more of in the 'other' games.

I don't know how you can compile it, but if possible, let us know if his minutes and/or shots are down in those contests in comparison to other games.

John Locke · Post #8 » by **John Locke** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:17 pm

His shooting forces teams to play out on him. And then they cannot double team, at least not his man. That's what he is used for in the 'bigger' games. And we need that.

SLCceltic · Post #9 » by **SLCceltic** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:51 pm

i did a thread on eddie----similar subject matter---a couple weeks ago
and he has been stepping up and looking for his shot a lot more............and making it against top teams

i'd look at his % since the last piston game
i think eddie will be ready for the playoffs, he has hit a couple huge shots now and should feel way more confident

it sux to shoot in pressure situations w/o confidence