Vernon Wells injury, a good thing?

[The Flying Gent]

And you're honestly saying that there's some fantastical and unrecordable force that allows players to somehow elevate their game when the pressures on?

Yes, not choking.

That is just stupid as hell. Chocking is just a word that's used to say he didn't come through in the clutch. It's not tangible. No one comes through all the time and Vernon in no way comes through less than other hitters of his caliber or lesser hitters. This is simple stuff here.

Take the same amount of at bats as Wells has in a season and make every at bat a "clutch" situation and Vernon's numbers would be exactly what he's capable of over a regular season. No less, no more. Guaranteed. The inning, the men on base, the month; these things have NO bearing on the AB.

Bring the stats out if you want, but by watching the games you can differentiate who's able to perform and deliver when you need them too at crucial junctures of the game and who won't come through for you.

You admittedly don't even watch Jays games so shut up with this differentiate crap.

Vernon Wells doesn't hit well when the Jays are down late in ball games, thats fact.

Prove it.

[Schad]

Actually DD, he is right to a degree. Wells' late and close numbers have always been quite bad: .243/.303/.695, as compared to his .281/.331/.808 overall line. He's one of the few I've seen with that dramatic a drop-off, really.

[whiterasta80]

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Guaranteed. The inning, the men on base, the month; these things have NO bearing on the AB.

Didn't you promise not to come back to this issue?

Those variables have no bearing on the AB provided that the hitter doesn't change his approach. What we're telling you is that Vernon Wells does change his approach, and in doing so ceases to be the player that he normally is (not that that is superstar material anyway). You asked for proof of Wells choking: the proof when he comes up to the plate- you can see the pressure getting to him. You can see his mannerisms change, and you can see his mechanics change. When that happens stats CAN, and will change. Not that this will satiate you, you seem to need statistical proof of everything rather than obvious visual cues staring you in the face.

[The Flying Gent]

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Didn't you promise not to come back to this issue?

I didn't promise anything. I said that i was done debating with Duffman because we had reached a point where we we're just going around in circles. My post had nothing to do with him and was in response to Kosta after he addressed me.

Those variales have no bearing on the AB provided that the hitter doesn't change his approach. What we're telling you is that Vernon Wells does change his approach, and in doing so ceases to be the player that he normally is (not that that is superstar material anyway). You asked for proof of Wells choking: the proof when he comes up to the plate- you can see the pressure getting to him. You can see his mannerisms change, and you can see his mechanics change. When that happens stats CAN, and will change. Not that this will satiate you, you seem to need statistical proof of everything rather than obvious visual cues staring you in the face.

Two things. First, none of that is proof. Second, I watch as much baseball as you i'm sure and i've seen nothing that says to me that Vernon Wells consistently changes his approach when there are runners on base or in pressure situations.

Now you'll properly disagree with me here, but unfortunately for you the numbers are more in line with my argument.

[The Flying Gent]

Actually DD, he is right to a degree. Wells' late and close numbers have always been quite bad: .243/.303/.695, as compared to his .281/.331/.808 overall line. He's one of the few I've seen with that dramatic a drop-off, really.

Could you define late and close? And those drop offs, while noticeable, are not exactly what i'd call dramatic.

[Schad]

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Could you define late and close? And those drop offs, while noticeable, are not exactly what i'd call dramatic.

Late and close is defined as: the seventh or later inning with any of the following conditions - score tied, one team leading by a run, or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck.

And yes, that is a pretty dramatic drop-off. There are mitigating factors, of course: one faces better pitching in such situations as compared to the totality of a game. However, Wells' drop-off is statistically significant (his tOPS+ is 74, which is considerable, and his 611 PAs represent a large enough sample to infer a trend), and much larger than that of most players.

In regards to the significance, think about it this way...his OPS overall is that of a borderline All-Star, but in tough situations he transforms into a sub-.700 OPS hitter (for the sake of comparison, Howie Clark's career OPS is .011 below Wells' late and close numbers). If one wants to attach a 'why?' to that decline, I'd suggest Wells' lack of patience: he's the type of hitter that feasts of lazy fastballs from bad pitchers, but a good pitcher can triple up sliders and get him waving like a disgruntled windmill.

That doesn't necessarily make him a choke artist...it just means that his approach is lacking.

[Geddy]

I think everyone is putting too much emphasis on this whole clutch business. Clutch or not Wells has the ability to be a pretty damn good hitter, and we have yet to see him at 100% for a full season since he signed his big contract. I'd like to see him play in some actual big games before I write him off.

[Kosta]

You admittedly don't even watch Jays games so shut up with this differentiate crap.

Not this season, although I've managed to watch the last two games they've lost.

I've watched Vernon and the Jays for the majority of his career, you need to calm down.

What's so hard to understand about what I'm saying? Some players are known to come up big when you need them too late in games, others aren't. There's not much else to it, it's rather simple. You've now even seen the stats, what else do you need?

[whiterasta80]

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Two things. First, none of that is proof. Second, I watch as much baseball as you i'm sure and i've seen nothing that says to me that Vernon Wells consistently changes his approach when there are runners on base or in pressure situations.

Now you'll properly disagree with me here, but unfortunately for you the numbers are more in line with my argument.

Its true that those observations cannot be quantified, but it doesn't make them any less wrong. Stats aren't the only way to judge what's going on. You should try reading the book "Scout's Honor:The Bravest Way to Building a Team" by Bill Shanks. Sabremetrics aren't the only way to judge baseball.

Now, if you don't see Vernon changing his approach then you probably aren't paying much attention to ability to judge the strike zone. I suggest you pay particular attention to the second pitch of the at bat. The entire league knows to give him something out of the strike zone (it doesn't matter if the count is 0-1 or 1-0).

Finally, as Shadenfreude has twice pointed out, the numbers aren't in line with your argument. He does struggle in close and late situations.

[Duffman100]

I'm just an honest believer that we should have dealt Well in his contract year for 4 young prospects (Ideally a catcher, and first baseman, an outfielder, and either a SS or 3B).

Rios could have taken over CF and we could start rebuilding again.

[whiterasta80]

I'm just an honest believer that we should have dealt Well in his contract year for 4 young prospects (Ideally a catcher, and first baseman, an outfielder, and either a SS or 3B).

Rios could have taken over CF and we could start rebuilding again.

I screamed for that to happen that whole season. Although I would have been content with even 2 prospects. Quite frankly we may even have been better off letting him walk and taking the picks.

The most frustrating thing about the process is that we gave him the contract a year early, WITH THE KNOWLEDGE that he had a bad shoulder. We could have just let him play his contract year (last year) and watched his value drop.

[Geddy]

So i guess the Vernon Wells injury was not a good thing. Good to have him back.

[whiterasta80]

Its never a good thing when Joe Inglett is taking heavy innings. Good game for Wells, I will acknowledge, but I'm still not a fan.

[chargerxthirty]

clutch definately exists.

I was a goalie in hockey, and whenever we played those teams with beast records that would pepper me with shots, I would arrive with an extra spring in my step and play some of my best games, cause I knew I'd have to be clutch if my team had a chance to win. It's called rising to the occasion.

Anyone who buys into Mike Wilners stance on being "clutch" is an idiot or has never picked up a bat.

[whiterasta80]

clutch definately exists.

I was a goalie in hockey, and whenever we played those teams with beast records that would pepper me with shots, I would arrive with an extra spring in my step and play some of my best games, cause I knew I'd have to be clutch if my team had a chance to win. It's called rising to the occasion.

Anyone who buys into Mike Wilners stance on being "clutch" is an idiot or has never picked up a bat.

Amen.

[Modern_epic]

clutch definately exists.

I was a goalie in hockey, and whenever we played those teams with beast records that would pepper me with shots, I would arrive with an extra spring in my step and play some of my best games, cause I knew I'd have to be clutch if my team had a chance to win. It's called rising to the occasion.

Anyone who buys into Mike Wilners stance on being "clutch" is an idiot or has never picked up a bat.

N0N-S3QU1TUR3D!!11!!!1!

I'm pretty sure no one in this thread, or on this planet, has tried to claim clutch doesn't exist in all of sports. The argument is that the nature of baseball just isn't conducive to being able to hit better in high pressure situations.

In other sports there are adrenal reasons to explain clutch, but that isn't much help as a batter. Pick a pitch you think is coming, identify the pitch that ends up coming, and swing or don't swing. Pressure may make you do better or worse on these, but it's debatable. Which is what other people are doing rationally here.

[whiterasta80]

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In other sports there are adrenal reasons to explain clutch, but that isn't much help as a batter. Pick a pitch you think is coming, identify the pitch that ends up coming, and swing or don't swing. Pressure may make you do better or worse on these, but it's debatable. Which is what other people are doing rationally here.

I'm not sure I understand how a swing is any different than reacting to a hockey puck being shot, or taking a free throw or whatever other sports action you ARE willing to accept is clutch.

Every action in sports requires focus, and bodily cntrol. And "adrenal reasons" can factor into any of them.

[Schad]

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I'm not sure I understand how a swing is any different than reacting to a hockey puck being shot, or taking a free throw or whatever other sports action you ARE willing to accept is clutch.

Every action in sports requires focus, and bodily cntrol. And "adrenal reasons" can factor into any of them.

The difference is that being a hitter is entirely reactive, while playing most other sports includes an allowance for proactive behaviour (a basketball player can drive rather than pull up, a hockey player can head hard for the corner rather than sagging off, and so forth). There's really nothing that a hitter can do to improve his fortunes...he can get worse if he squeezes the sawdust out of the bat or is so dependent on a certain pitch sequence that he's made to look foolish if it doesn't come (c'mon down, Vernon Wells!), but he can't really get better.

[whiterasta80]

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The difference is that being a hitter is entirely reactive, while playing most other sports includes an allowance for proactive behaviour (a basketball player can drive rather than pull up, a hockey player can head hard for the corner rather than sagging off, and so forth). There's really nothing that a hitter can do to improve his fortunes...he can get worse if he squeezes the sawdust out of the bat or is so dependent on a certain pitch sequence that he's made to look foolish if it doesn't come (c'mon down, Vernon Wells!), but he can't really get better.

The validity of the "hitting is entirely reactive" statement notwithstanding,
I think we just differ in our definition of clutch.

In my opinion EVERY player squeezes the sawdust out of the bat when they go up to the plate, it just happens to varying degrees. Clutch, is someone who rarely does that when faced with pressure, and unclutch is someone who frequently does that in pressure situations.