Cammo's Mock Draft: Sweet 16 Edition (3/23)

[hard49]

I am still waiting on the post player who shot 46% in college that deserved to be a #3 pick.

I am guessing it has never happened in the modern era of hoops. However, keep on with the Brook Lopez insanity.

[Jonathan Watters]

I think Jordan and Darko are simular as far as situation goes. Darko was not much more proven than Jordan, considering Darko never even played in an upper tier league in Europe. I wasn't implying that Marvin Williams was as raw as Jordan, just using the Williams/May situation to show that upside always trumps production. Darko, Skita, Sene, Korolev are all guys off the top of my head taken with lottery picks who were every bit as unproven as Jordan is.

2nd level European success is still way more proven than high school success and an inability to get onto the court for an unspectacular D1 team, at least in my eyes.

As far as Sene and Korolev, you are right. But they weren't Top 5 picks - and once again, we don't see these players making headlines in the NBA.

The pattern is fairly clear here...

[Cammo101]

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2nd level European success is still way more proven than high school success and an inability to get onto the court for an unspectacular D1 team, at least in my eyes.

As far as Sene and Korolev, you are right. But they weren't Top 5 picks - and once again, we don't see these players making headlines in the NBA.

The pattern is fairly clear here...

Jordan had success on the under 18 USA team, which is pretty much on par with the level Darko was playing IMO.

[Jonathan Watters]

I am still waiting on the post player who shot 46% in college that deserved to be a #3 pick.

I am guessing it has never happened in the modern era of hoops. However, keep on with the Brook Lopez insanity.

This will be the last time I mention this, I promise

Please take a look at this link, and understand what the numbers mean:

http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=PctPoss&y=2008

There are exactly SIX players on at-large teams with usage rates above 30.

TWO are left after the first weekend.

The two players are Brook Lopez and Courtney Lee.

Also, please keep in mind that most of the players on this list get bumps because of an abnormally high turnover rate. Despite the perception of Lopez being a "black hole", he actually ranks 154th in the nation in TO rate, so his "effective" usage rate is actually quite a bit higher in comparison to the rest of the players on this list.

(what is actually happening here is that Lopez is being told to shoot rather than pass back out - this happens because Stanford deliberately slows down the pace and Lopez often gets the ball in "bail out" situations at the end of the shot clock where there is no time to reset the offense. Stanford also wants him to shoot it because they have a very ineffective perimeter attack - so much energy is put into denying Lopez the ball, and Robin is bound to be there on the weakside to scoop up a lot of those misses. Just as likely to end in a score for Stanford as a reversal and re-post. This is very calculated, it probably is better for the team, and certainly isn't Brook Lopez being a mindless black hole)

Going back a year, we see a grand total of two players on at-large teams with usage rates higher than 30, Kevin Durant and Alando Tucker. Brook Lopez's usage rate is higher than both.

That's right, Lopez is a bigger part of Stanford's attack than Durant was of Texas' last year.

For comparison, Oden's usage rate was around 26 last year. Same for Hibbert this year. Lopez isn't just another post player which you can compare to an Oden or any other big man playing with other offensive options.

I'm not saying Lopez's low FG% isn't an issue - obviously he could do a little better with his shot selection and needs to find ways to get a few easier baskets.

But given what we know about usage rates, we can't even say for certain how much of an issue it is. The fact that Stanford still ranks 21st in the country in offensive efficiency speaks for itself. So does the fact that Brook Lopez ranks 12th in individual offensive efficiency amongst players with 30+ usage rates, with absolutely no adjustment for competition.

As easily as you can say a post player shooting 46% from the floor has never been drafted in the Top 5, I can say that a post player has never amassed such a high usage rate still found such a high level of team/individual success.

[Cammo101]

I am still waiting on the post player who shot 46% in college that deserved to be a #3 pick.

I am guessing it has never happened in the modern era of hoops. However, keep on with the Brook Lopez insanity.

Brook Lopez is playing 1 on 5 at Stanford. His shooting % reflects the lack of talent around him and the fact that he has to carry his team on both ends of the floor. Put Lopez on UCLA and he shoots 60%.

[Jonathan Watters]

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Jordan had success on the under 18 USA team, which is pretty much on par with the level Darko was playing IMO.

How many MPG did he play in that tourney?

[Griff83]

what does everyone think of Scottie Reynolds?

sure hes not very big and couldnt be a point guard on the next level, but he flat out knows how to play the game and score.

[Cammo101]

what does everyone think of Scottie Reynolds?

sure hes not very big and couldnt be a point guard on the next level, but he flat out knows how to play the game and score.

If he can prove his ability to play PG at the next level, then he is a first round pick. If not, then he is Dominic James.

[Cammo101]

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How many MPG did he play in that tourney?

I can't find the stats. But, I know he was the 2nd best player on that team behind Beasley.

[JonathanG]

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I can't find the stats. But, I know he was the 2nd best player on that team behind Beasley.

dunno where you got that from. He was disappointing there too.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/U-1 ... -Men-2197/

[roseorbust]

This mock draft needs some spicing up, how bout some curry.

[Cammo101]

This mock draft needs some spicing up, how bout some curry.

No chance he declares. 6'2'' SG's only work when they have AI or Ben Gordon level athleticism. Curry must prove he can play PG in the NBA, and that won't happen in this tourny. I get that Curry is becoming the flavor of the moment, but he would make a grave mistake declaring for this draft.

[seafan]

Cammo,

Has jerryd's stock gone down since the beginning of the season? Selfishly, I want him to come back. There are MILLIONS of reason to go, but lute knows how to get players in the nba.

Thoughts?

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Cammo,

Has jerryd's stock gone down since the beginning of the season? Selfishly, I want him to come back. There are MILLIONS of reason to go, but lute knows how to get players to fail in the nba.

Thoughts?

Fixed. If I'm a GM, I red-flag every player from Arizona that comes out. Their success rate of late has been pretty poor, especially considering how highly people think of their recruiting classes. Arizona players either don't develop (Hassan Adams) or develop attitudes (Marcus Williams) that inhibit their successes.

Cammo, I think Tyler Smith and Brandon Rush are both too high, but great mock otherwise. Kudos.

[Cammo101]

Cammo,

Has jerryd's stock gone down since the beginning of the season? Selfishly, I want him to come back. There are MILLIONS of reason to go, but lute knows how to get players in the nba.

Thoughts?

His stock is up from the begining of the year, but down some lately. He scores, but he is not a true PG and did not do much winning at Zona, despite a talented team. He likely won't be back because he will be a lotto pick.

[BMiller52]

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His stock is up from the begining of the year, but down some lately. He scores, but he is not a true PG and did not do much winning at Zona, despite a talented team. He likely won't be back because he will be a lotto pick.

Where is he right now? Still top 5 or down to like mid-lower lottery.

[Cammo101]

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Where is he right now? Still top 5 or down to like mid-lower lottery.

5-8 IMO.

[Young_Star11]

I like getting Darren Collison that late for the Rockets!

[seafan]

to fail

Weak.

His stock is up from the begining of the year, but down some lately. He scores, but he is not a true PG and did not do much winning at Zona, despite a talented team. He likely won't be back because he will be a lotto pick.

He could use another year. Hes got alot of weaknesses.

[August Us Seazr]

Is there a reason that Tyler Hansbrough is MIA on this mock? He has been a consistent 21-30 pick all year, but missing on this one. Does Cammo know something that I haven't heard yet?

Info please!

And Claw on Bobcats!