If the Hawks make the playoffs Al Horford should ......

[XcalibuR]

I'm picking Durant. They simply have different roles on their team. Durant was inserted as the Sonic's go to guy, franchise player from the very beginning. When you take that into account, and the fact that 20ppg isn't exactly easy for a rookie, Durant is my guy. Can anyone here honestly say Horford can get 20ppg on the Sonics? Could he make them a better team in the bigmen heavy west?

[AbdicatedReign]

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I see what you are saying, what I was saying is that only people who don't know what they are talking about would use blocks and steals as the sole indicators of defensive ability...

Shane Battier, Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen are all guys that don't get many of either.

Some guys that are post defenders like Al would be Charles Oakley, Karl Malone, Kurt Thomas, Dennis Rodman. None of those guys got many blocks or steals but they are/were all great post defenders.

There is a correlation with those stats and defensive ability but you have to watch the games, I think more people have seen Durant than Horford this season because Atlanta doesn't get on TV and Al didn't have the hype that Durant did. Anyway, there is a reason that poeple say Horford is a better defender, he is...

Apparently you don't see what I'm saying. Nowhere did I say blocks and steals should be a sole indicator of defensive ability, or even a reliable one. I said, that if someone is going to claim Horford plays defense and Durant doesn't (nate33's words, not mine) when they have at least one comparable defensive metric is an outright fallacious statement. Because, as you've stated, "there is a correlation with those stats and defensive ability," so while a great defender may not accrue a prodigious amount of blocks and steals, someone with no defensive ability, or who "doesn't play defense," couldn't either. To average over 1 BPG and 1 SPG (pace-adjusted) you clearly have to have some defensive ability. To claim otherwise is to risk one's reputation as a rational thinker. That's all I was saying (and I have watched the games, obviously, but falling back on that tired line doesn't do much for discussion, as I can't transmit the empirical data I've observed into your brain, thus we find ourselves using metrics).

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Durant makes Seattle a whopping 8.2 points worse per 100 posssessions when he is on the floor. That is a TERRIBLE number. According to the sortable defensive on/off data dated 3/1/08, Durant was the 3RD WORST DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE

True. And according to the sortable defensive on/off data dated 3/1/08 you so kindly provided, Wally Szczerbiak is the 5th best defensive player in the league. So. Um. Yeah. About that.

Listen, I'm not saying Durant is a better defender than Horford, I'm not even saying he's that far above average, that wasn't my point. I was merely pointing out that your claim, and I quote, that "only one guy [Horford] plays defense and wins games while the other [Durant] doesn't" is a specious and ludicrous one given that, in the data you provided, they have very similar defensive stats. A very small point I was making that got completely misconstrued and run with by the Horford For ROY committee. I won't even get into the whole "Horford being on a team with actual NBA-caliber starters" argument that's been beaten to death. We can agree to disagree about the level Durant defends at but, I and anyone else who has watched 50+ of his pro games, will tell you he passes the eye test so far as effort and potential on the defensive end go.

[conleyorbust]

^Right but ROY isn't about potential. Durant is not a good defender NOW. I don't think most observers would disagree with that statement. Horford has a more advanced knowledge of positioning on defense and has a body that allows him to play defense more effectively. Its not to say Durant can't be a good defender, or that he doesn't want to be a good defender, it is to say that he isn't a good defender. This is backed up by most neutral observers (like David Thorpe).

Obviously their roles are different... everyone knew Durant was going to be a poor defensive player, he was brought in to score. Horford was brought in to provide reasonably efficient scoring, tough post D, and rebounding. The question is whether Durant's singular strength is more impressive than Horford's well-roundedness. Since NBA observers live and die by ppg, Durant will probably win, I understand that.

For the record, I don't necessarilly think Al is a "great" defender. I think he is decent... which is great for a rookie. Horford is probably average for a rookie with his body and at his age with his position/responsibility, which is to say he is a very bad defender.

[nate33]

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True. And according to the sortable defensive on/off data dated 3/1/08 you so kindly provided, Wally Szczerbiak is the 5th best defensive player in the league. So. Um. Yeah. About that.

Yeah, you just made Durant look worse.

Szczerbiak, well known to be a lousy defender, has fabulous on/off numbers. Consider that he spent the majority of the season coming off the bench for Seattle. When he came in, Durant often sat. Basically, Durant is so bad defensively, he makes Szczerbiak look elite.

[A.J.]

imo, scola deserves rookie of the year more than durant

[Texas Longhorns]

Scola is ROY, second-runner up is Kevin Durant. End of question.

[Shabi__5]

IMO the ROY is still Durant's , teams succes shouldn't be a factor.
Horford has an all star in his team and a few other very good players , he is clearly in a weaker confrence and they might not even make the playoffs.
Who Durant got to play with?
Nobody and he plays in a much tougher confrence , his FG% is not that bad for a rookie in his 1st year that needs to carry a team , Carmelo and Lebron had very similar FG%.
Plus , if team succes is so important why Lebron got rookie of the year over Melo when Melo was in the playoffs and Lebron not?

[Shabi__5]

imo, scola deserves rookie of the year more than durant

Lets not be homers us Rockets fans , Durant is the ROY imo , You can argue for Scola as 2nd over Horford but I still think Scola is 3rd.

[Ballings7]

Horford should be ROY, but he probably won't be

Overall, Horford > Durant

[High 5]

Scola is ROY, second-runner up is Kevin Durant. End of question.

Only to some Houston fans. He's a distant third in the minds of most people.

[JoshB914]

I'm picking Durant. They simply have different roles on their team. Durant was inserted as the Sonic's go to guy, franchise player from the very beginning. When you take that into account, and the fact that 20ppg isn't exactly easy for a rookie, Durant is my guy. Can anyone here honestly say Horford can get 20ppg on the Sonics? Could he make them a better team in the bigmen heavy west?

For the millionth time, if the fact that Durant is "carrying his team" is criteria then it shouldn't help him. Their record is awful, clearly he's not doing a very good job. I'm not saying it should be a factor in ROY because he's just a rook, but how could you possibly give him credit simply for stepping into that role? Shouldn't his results while playing that role (team record) matter most?

It is RIDICULOUS that people use the argument of his team not having talent, because that is the only reason he gets his buckets. Put him on a better team as a no. 2 or no. 3 option and he doesn't have anywhere close to that 20 PPG. No one seems to understand this and it bothers me.

[BubbaTee]

IMO the ROY is still Durant's , teams succes shouldn't be a factor.
Horford has an all star in his team and a few other very good players , he is clearly in a weaker confrence and they might not even make the playoffs.
Who Durant got to play with?
Nobody and he plays in a much tougher confrence , his FG% is not that bad for a rookie in his 1st year that needs to carry a team , Carmelo and Lebron had very similar FG%.
Plus , if team succes is so important why Lebron got rookie of the year over Melo when Melo was in the playoffs and Lebron not?

And in winning ROY while not making the playoffs, Lebron has plenty of company:

Brandon Roy
Chris Paul
Emeka Okafor
Pau Gasol
Elton Brand
Steve Francis
Vince Carter
Allen Iverson
Damon Stoudamire
Jason Kidd
Grant Hill