The Bucks are trash (numerical evidence included)

[blkout]

I've been trawling 82games.com and thought I'd share some (of what I consider) interesting things I've picked up.

I'm not a big fan of +/- for individual games, but in a long sample period it can be telling. According to 82games.com, the best Bucks trio is this:

As of February:

Bell - Redd - Mason

They ranked around 25th in the league... promising right? The Bucks best trio is one of the worst in the entire NBA

For comparative purposes, Szczerbiak - Wilcox - Thomas rank higher, Felton - Carroll - Richardson ranked higher, Robinson - Crawford - Lee ranked higher also.

The worst Bucks trio: Redd - Yi - Bogut... interestingly this trio (despite being terrible statistically) had played more minutes than 90% of other teams worsts, including Boston who's worst trio had played only 83 minutes together (compared with the 885 for Redd/Yi/Bogut). The ranked around 6th (6th worst in the L of all trios).

Also, there are some really interesting team statistics, where they have individual statistic Win/Loss scores against teams they rank in those categories as either "Good (league rank 1-10)", "Average (11-20)" "Poor (21+)". For example, if the Bucks play the #20th ranked shot blocking team (considered Average) and are beaten 8-5, it would look like this:

W - 0
L - 1
Net - -3

If that makes sense. Anyway, you can find them all here http://www.82games.com/0708/0708MIL4.HTM but I decided to do some averaging...

There are 11 counted categories:

Points For, Points Against, Net Points, Off eFG%, Def eFG%, FTA Net, Rebounds, TUrnovers, Assists, Blocks, Pace

Against "Good" teams... ranked 1-10 in the league for their respective statistical categories:

Wins - 5.9
Losses - 16.6

Against "Average" teams ... ranked 11-20:

Wins - 9.2
Losses - 14.4

Against "Poor" teams ... ranked 21+:

Wins - 7.8
Losses - 13.0

I can also tell you there is not one single statistical category against either Good, Average or Poor teams that the Bucks average a Win in. That's pathetic basically, in the past I've thought maybe 1 or 2 personell changes would do the team a World of good but after looking at all of this, I'm all for a complete overhaul.

[EastSideBucksFan]

I don't need numbers to know the Bucks are trash

[Bucks_Revenge]

when your bad your bad...any stat would support that when you suck like Mo and Redd.

[blkout]

Teams who don't average a Win in a single statistical category against teams of any rank:

Milwaukee
Miami
Minnesota
Seattle

[Nebula1]

It's not nearly as bad as it seems.

You're never going to win with a stupid head coach and a stupid point guard. Until those two issues are fixed, nothing else matters.

[Nebula1]

This is all you have to do to fix this squad.


1. Hire Rick Carlisle

2. Trade Mo Williams for a pick (DJ White)

3. Trade the lotto pick into two picks (Brandon Rush and Tyler Smith)

4. Retain Ivey for cheap

5. Use 2nd round pick on a guard

6. Trade Simmons if possible or wait til he's expiring


Drafting DJ White gives leverage in the decision on Villanueva and pushes Yi in practice. Also he's the right kind of guy for us.

Sessions and Bell can man the PG spot for Carlisle. Ivey being re-signed for adds some cheap insurance there.

Smith and Rush give an athletic, talented rotation at small forward. One of them will take the starting spot from Mason.

Redd gets a season to prove his worth under a real coach and with real talent around him.

[Kerb Hohl]

2. Trade Mo Williams for a pick (DJ White)

I think Mo is worth more than a late first/early second round pick.

3. Trade the lotto pick into two picks (Brandon Rush and Tyler Smith)

Don't mind that. Love Tyler Smith. Right now, Smith is early second and Rush is late first/early second. If we are basing this off the potential Philly trade of last year...we could maybe get a little bit more for our pick.

4. Retain Ivey for cheap

Probably could be done pretty easily.

5. Use 2nd round pick on a guard

Ok.

6. Trade Simmons if possible or wait til he's expiring

You should include who he would be traded with. No one is going to take him on unless we get an equally crappy contract in return. The only way someone takes him is if they are somehow trying to clear their cap for Lebron or something...but we'd still bring back crap in return.

Sessions and Bell can man the PG spot for Carlisle. Ivey being re-signed for adds some cheap insurance there.

Sessions is not ready to start yet, Bell is not good enough at PG to play it full-time, and Ivey sucks for the most part.

Redd gets a season to prove his worth under a real coach and with real talent around him.

My prediction: 39 wins and a first round exit at best. The only way Redd thrives is if we bring in 2 guys that are very good players on both sides of the ball. Bogut may soon get there, who knows, but if we somehow get to that point, what is it worth to pay your scoring specialist that might not buy into the team concept the max $$$? There are still questions if Redd would defer to these guys and if we did have these players then once again, Michael Redd is not going to be our best player and therefore not worth the max contract(which is the reason that it is nearly impossible to bring in these players short of a draft miracle or Yi's balls dropping).

[Kerb Hohl]

This is all you have to do to fix this squad.
Redd gets a season to prove his worth under a real coach and with real talent around him.

Let me expound on this so it doesn't seem like I am "hating" on Redd before the opportunity even comes up.

Let's assume we can't trade Simmons...and if we can it'll be packaged with CV for an average role player with decent upside.

2005-2006 Bucks (Proposed)2008-2009 Bucks
C-Jamaal Magloire < C-2009 Andrew Bogut
PF-2005 Andrew Bogut/Joe Smith > PF-Yi/DJ White/CV
SF-Healthy Bobby Simmons/Kukoc > SF-SimmonsMase/rookies Rush/Smith
SG-2005 Redd < SG-2009 Redd(debatable)
PG-Ford, Mo, Bell >>>>>>>>>>>>> PG-Sessions/Bell/Ivey
Coach- Stotts <(not by as much as you think) Coach- Carslile
Result: 40 wins Result: ?

2009 Redd is better but I can't see anyone on this team demanding that he play better team ball/better D.

[Nebula1]

DJ White is the Carl Landry of this draft. Perhaps Mo is worth more, but to me, that works. It's what the Bucks desperately need.

I do think Bell, Sessions, and Ivey can man the PG spot for a season.

I'm guessing we're holding Simmons until he's expiring.

I believe Redd can adjust his game to the players around him. A real coach will assist there.

[Nebula1]

This is all you have to do to fix this squad.
Redd gets a season to prove his worth under a real coach and with real talent around him.

Let me expound on this so it doesn't seem like I am "hating" on Redd before the opportunity even comes up.

Let's assume we can't trade Simmons...and if we can it'll be packaged with CV for an average role player with decent upside.

2005-2006 Bucks (Proposed)2008-2009 Bucks
C-Jamaal Magloire < C-2009 Andrew Bogut
PF-2005 Andrew Bogut/Joe Smith > PF-Yi/DJ White/CV
SF-Healthy Bobby Simmons/Kukoc > SF-SimmonsMase/rookies Rush/Smith
SG-2005 Redd < SG-2009 Redd(debatable)
PG-Ford, Mo, Bell >>>>>>>>>>>>> PG-Sessions/Bell/Ivey
Coach- Stotts <(not by as much as you think) Coach- Carslile
Result: 40 wins Result: ?

2009 Redd is better but I can't see anyone on this team demanding that he play better team ball/better D.

I have to disagree with some of this.

Mo/Bell are not better than Sessions/Bell/Ivey - Mo is the catalyst for this teams awfulness.

Smith/Rush/Mason would be better than a healthy Simmons and Kukoc. Although Kukoc was nice and a glue guy for sure. But we'd have real atheleticism at the position for once.

Yi/Villanueva/White gives versatility at PF. Not sure if it's better than Bogut/Smith, but is better in terms of growth potential.

[Kerb Hohl]

Mo/Bell are not better than Sessions/Bell/Ivey - Mo is the catalyst for this teams awfulness.

You won't catch any argument from me that Mo is a worse defender/team guy than Sessions/Ivey but it isn't by that wide of a margin. Now add in the fact that Sessions is nowhere near ready to lead a good offense and Ivey is a mediocre backup at best and there is no way that tandem is better than Mo who is fairly productive no matter what you think offensively(I don't like some of his decisions but he is adequate at getting us points). Oh, and you've conveniently left off TJ Ford who started 72 games that season and was pretty good.

I also believe that Redd is more of the catalyst for this team's struggles. Redd and Mo both play the same crappy defense but Mo is at least clutch. I can think of 4 or 5 games that Redd has won for us and 4 or 5 that Mo has won for us...I would say Mo has won more games for us but that is debatable...what is not debatable is that Redd has lost us probably 10 games in the 4th quarter while Mo has only really lost us a handful in the 4th quarter.

Smith/Rush/Mason would be better than a healthy Simmons and Kukoc. Although Kukoc was nice and a glue guy for sure. But we'd have real atheleticism at the position for once.

Yes they would be better than Simmons/Kukoc but it wouldn't be for a year or two. At that point Redd will be done stealing(taking paychecks) from the Bucks or we will reach a point where we have to deal him because we are still mediocre.

Yi/Villanueva/White gives versatility at PF. Not sure if it's better than Bogut/Smith, but is better in terms of growth potential.

Once again, I agree on the growth/potential part of that definitely. The problem is Max Redd won't be in his prime forever and you are also counting on DJ White to be efficient early. I can definitely see the Landry comparison but we still have to get Yi/CV a ton of minutes and that means a bunch of turnovers when Yi is in and porous defense when CV is in.

[Nebula1]

My big thing is that we establish a long-term growth plan for this team. I'm not worried about building around Redd so much as I am Bogut. Redd will be effective for many years, given how talented he is as a shooter.

My goal is not to get the 4 seed next season. It's about maximizing our current position to restock the roster with talented youth and athletes.

In regards to DJ White, I'm not really counting on him being too productive. What I want is a PF with a season under him before we negotiate with Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut. I have to believe Yi will continue to improve, especially once him Olympic obligations are over.


PGs and coaches have been the problem for this team for a very long time. I couldn't stand Ford and I can't stand Williams. I do believe Sessions and Bell are talented enough to make the team work if Rick Carlisle were coaching.

[Buck You]

PGs and coaches have been the problem for this team for a very long time. I couldn't stand Ford and I can't stand Williams. I do believe Sessions and Bell are talented enough to make the team work if Rick Carlisle were coaching.

Charlie Bell can't play point guard, that's been proven before.

[Nebula1]

-= original quote snipped =-



Charlie Bell can't play point guard, that's been proven before.

It's been proven that Mo can't either.


That aside, Sessions, Bell and Ivey can get it done for a year.

[Kablooie]

Ivey might be playing worse basketball than anyone else on the entire roster and Sessions is an untested 2nd round pick, so it's a little scary when you concede that Bell isn't PG material. It's crazy to think that any of these guys would be neary as good as Mo. Even if you look at Mo as a terrible defender or selfish, not many Bucks have shown the ability to score reliably.

[Nebula1]

Ivey might be playing worse basketball than anyone else on the entire roster and Sessions is an untested 2nd round pick, so it's a little scary when you concede that Bell isn't PG material. It's crazy to think that any of these guys would be neary as good as Mo. Even if you look at Mo as a terrible defender or selfish, not many Bucks have shown the ability to score reliably.

Ivey plays decent defense. Sessions has the rest of the season to become tested.

And I won't concede that Bell isn't PG material. He might not be an exciting PG, but he can D up opponents and run an offense.

If we draft 2 SFs in Rush and Smith, then the Bucks can score at the 2-4 positions. That's the way it should be.

[trwi7]

Ivey plays decent defense.

If by decent you mean terrible then yes, Ivey plays decent defense.

[Nebula1]

-= original quote snipped =-



If by decent you mean terrible then yes, Ivey plays decent defense.

It's not that bad. It's not 1st team all NBA, but it's not that bad, especially for a 3rd string player.

I'm not going to bash Ivey. I think he's been a decent asset for us, with the only exception that he's taken time from Sessions.

In the NBA, it's about team defense and Ivey isn't terrible at the point of attack.

[trwi7]

-= original quote snipped =-




It's not that bad. It's not 1st team all NBA, but it's not that bad, especially for a 3rd string player.

I'm not going to bash Ivey. I think he's been a decent asset for us, with the only exception that he's taken time from Sessions.

In the NBA, it's about team defense and Ivey isn't terrible at the point of attack.

I have to question if you've ever watched Ivey play this year because he has been terrible. Just because he runs around like he has some idea of what he should be doing doesn't make him a good defender. He gets beaten off the dribble, he just can't defend.

[Nebula1]

I think he's slowed down alot, but he was pretty effective for awhile.

And for the record, almost every player in the NBA gets beat off the dribble. That's why team defense is so critical.

I'm not suggesting Ivey is the solution to our problems, but he's not been that bad for us, although I wish his jumper would fall more often. I think he's the kind of guy you want on your bench and in practice. I hope we bring him back for cheap.